Objectives To estimate the short term effect of particulate air pollution (particle diameter <10 μm, or PM10) on mortality and explore the heterogeneity of particulate air pollution effects in major ...cities in China.Design Generalised linear models with different lag structures using time series data.Setting 38 of the largest cities in 27 provinces of China (combined population >200 million).Participants 350 638 deaths (200 912 in males, 149 726 in females) recorded in 38 city districts by the Disease Surveillance Point System of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 1 January 2010 to 29 June 2013.Main outcome measure Daily numbers of deaths from all causes, cardiorespiratory diseases, and non-cardiorespiratory diseases and among different demographic groups were used to estimate the associations between particulate air pollution and mortality.Results A 10 µg/m3 change in concurrent day PM10 concentrations was associated with a 0.44% (95% confidence interval 0.30% to 0.58%) increase in daily number of deaths. Previous day and two day lagged PM10 levels decreased in magnitude by one third and two thirds but remained statistically significantly associated with increased mortality. The estimate for the effect of PM10 on deaths from cardiorespiratory diseases was 0.62% (0.43% to 0.81%) per 10 µg/m3 compared with 0.26% (0.09% to 0.42%) for other cause mortality. Exposure to PM10 had a greater impact on females than on males. Adults aged 60 and over were more vulnerable to particulate air pollution at high levels than those aged less than 60. The PM10 effect varied across different cities and marginally decreased in cities with higher PM10 concentrations.Conclusion Particulate air pollution has a greater impact on deaths from cardiorespiratory diseases than it does on other cause mortality. People aged 60 or more have a higher risk of death from particulate air pollution than people aged less than 60. The estimates of the effect varied across cities and covered a wide range of domain.
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BFBNIB, CMK, NMLJ, NUK, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
The most commonly used statistical models of civil war onset fail to correctly predict most occurrences of this rare event in out-of-sample data. Statistical methods for the analysis of binary data, ...such as logistic regression, even in their rare event and regularized forms, perform poorly at prediction. We compare the performance of Random Forests with three versions of logistic regression (classic logistic regression, Firth rare events logistic regression, and L
1-regularized logistic regression), and find that the algorithmic approach provides significantly more accurate predictions of civil war onset in out-of-sample data than any of the logistic regression models. The article discusses these results and the ways in which algorithmic statistical methods like Random Forests can be useful to more accurately predict rare events in conflict data.
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BFBNIB, NMLJ, NUK, ODKLJ, PNG, UL, UM, UPUK
We investigate the hypothesis that macroeconomic fluctuations are primitively the results of many microeconomic shocks. We define fundamental volatility as the volatility that would arise from an ...economy made entirely of idiosyncratic sectoral or firm-level shocks. Fundamental volatility accounts for the swings in macroeconomic volatility in the major world economies in the past half-century. It accounts for the "great moderation" and its undoing. The initial great moderation is due to a decreasing share of manufacturing between 1975 and 1985. The recent rise of macroeconomic volatility is chiefly due to the growth of the financial sector.
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BFBNIB, CEKLJ, INZLJ, IZUM, KILJ, NMLJ, NUK, ODKLJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK, ZRSKP
We are flooded with large-scale, dynamic, directed, networked data. Analyses requiring exact comparisons between networks are computationally intractable, so new methodologies are sought. To analyse ...directed networks, we extend graphlets (small induced sub-graphs) and their degrees to directed data. Using these directed graphlets, we generalise state-of-the-art network distance measures (RGF, GDDA and GCD) to directed networks and show their superiority for comparing directed networks. Also, we extend the canonical correlation analysis framework that enables uncovering the relationships between the wiring patterns around nodes in a directed network and their expert annotations. On directed World Trade Networks (WTNs), our methodology allows uncovering the core-broker-periphery structure of the WTN, predicting the economic attributes of a country, such as its gross domestic product, from its wiring patterns in the WTN for up-to ten years in the future. It does so by enabling us to track the dynamics of a country's positioning in the WTN over years. On directed metabolic networks, our framework yields insights into preservation of enzyme function from the network wiring patterns rather than from sequence data. Overall, our methodology enables advanced analyses of directed networked data from any area of science, allowing domain-specific interpretation of a directed network's topology.
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IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
Income inequality and national wealth are strong determinants for health, but few studies have systematically investigated their influence on mortality across the early life-course, particularly ...outside the high-income world.
We performed cross-sectional regression analyses of the relationship between income inequality (national Gini coefficient) and national wealth (Gross Domestic Product (GDP) averaged over previous decade), and all-cause and grouped cause national mortality rate amongst infants, 1-4, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19 and 20-24 year olds in low and middle-income countries (LMIC) in 2012. Gini models were adjusted for GDP.
Data were available for 103 (79%) countries. Gini was positively associated with increased all-cause and communicable disease mortality in both sexes across all age groups, after adjusting for national wealth. Gini was only positively associated with increased injury mortality amongst infants and 20-24 year olds, and increased non-communicable disease mortality amongst 20-24 year old females. The strength of these associations tended to increase during adolescence. Increasing GDP was negatively associated with all-cause, communicable and non-communicable disease mortality in males and females across all age groups. GDP was also associated with decreased injury mortality in all age groups except 15-19 year old females, and 15-24 year old males. GDP became a weaker predictor of mortality during adolescence.
Policies to reduce income inequality, rather than prioritising economic growth at all costs, may be needed to improve adolescent mortality in low and middle-income countries, a key development priority.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Attempts to create measures of national wellbeing and progress have a long history. In the UK, they go back at least as far as the 1790s, with Sir John Sinclair's Statistical Account of Scotland. ...More recently, worldwide interest has led to the creation of various indices seeking to go beyond familiar economic measures like gross domestic product. We review the 'Measuring national well-being' development programme of the UK's Office for National Statistics and explore some of the challenges which need to be faced to bring wider measures into use. These include the importance of getting the measures adopted as policy drivers, how to challenge the continuing dominance of economic measures, sustainability and environmental issues, international comparability and methodological statistical questions.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, INZLJ, IZUM, KILJ, NLZOH, NMLJ, NUK, OILJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK, ZRSKP
The primary goal of this study was to examine the relationship between fossil fuel energy, electricity production from nuclear sources, renewable energy, CO
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emissions, and economic growth in ...Pakistan. Data ranging from 1975 to 2019 were utilized, and the stationarity of this data was verified through the unit root testing. The dynamic connections between variables were investigated by utilizing the linear autoregressive distributed lag technique. Long-run analysis results uncover that fossil fuel energy, renewable energy use, CO
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emissions, and GDP per capita have a productive relationship with economic progress in Pakistan, whereas electric power consumption, electricity produced from nuclear sources, and energy utilization have an adverse effect on economic growth. Furthermore, the consequences revealed that fossil fuel energy, renewable energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, and GDP per capita have a significant linkage to Pakistan’s economic growth via short run, whereas we revealed that the variables electric power consumption, electricity produced from nuclear sources, and energy usage have an adversative linkage to Pakistan’s economic growth. Feasible progressive policies are required from the Pakistani government to pay more attention for tackling the energy and power sectors’ issues in terms of fulfilling the country’s energy requirements.
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CEKLJ, EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
After the 9/11 attacks, much of the political and media debate on terrorism has focused on prevention policies. The widespread view that poverty creates terrorism has dominated much of this debate. ...This is hardly surprising. After all, the notion that poverty generates terrorism is consistent with the results of most of the literature on the economics of conflicts. Because terrorism is a manifestation of political conflict, these results seem to indicate that poverty and adverse economic conditions may play an important role in explaining terrorism. Recent empirical studies, however, have challenged the view that poverty creates terrorism. Using US State Department data on transnational terrorist attacks, Alan B. Krueger and David L. Laitin and James A. Piazza find no evidence suggesting poverty may generate terrorism. Conversely, among countries with similar levels of civil liberties, richer countries seem to be preferred targets for transnational terrorist attacks. However, these studies may suffer, in principle, from some potential shortcomings.
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BFBNIB, CEKLJ, INZLJ, IZUM, KILJ, NMLJ, NUK, ODKLJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK, ZRSKP
Econometrics is a branch of economics that uses mathematical and statistical methods to study quantitative and qualitative relationships within economic phenomena. The purpose of this article is to ...study the impact of the capital market (financial instruments) on economic growth in Kazakhstan and the CIS countries through an understanding of the concept of “econometrics”. The task of the study is to determine the dependence of gross domestic product as a resultant factor over the past 20 years. Methods. The article determines the assessment of the impact of financial factors on economic growth in the short term. An econometric model was used for this purpose. The resulting factor was the gross domestic product over the past 20 years. Results. The results indicate that the capital market influences economic growth in Kazakhstan and the CIS countries. This paper presents a model of the GDP function for the economy of Kazakhstan. In the course of the study, coefficients and variables of the model were estimated to predict the level and future changes in the country’s GDP. Thus, the size of the capital market (Y1) depends on the following variables tested in the model: the number of securities issuance transactions; the volume of securities issuance transactions; the number of transactions of non-residents with shares at the secondary auction of KASE; the rate of change of shares of leading issuers on KASE
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