The pandemic and economic policy uncertainty Al‐Thaqeb, Saud Asaad; Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim; Alabdulghafour, Khaled Tareq
International journal of finance and economics,
July 2022, Volume:
27, Issue:
3
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
The events that occurred after the worldwide diffusion of COVID‐19 provide a real‐life example of how uncertainty can severely affect the global economy. This paper reviews literature on the negative ...impacts of the economic policy uncertainty index (EPU) on individuals, businesses, governments, and economies at the local and international levels. This reveals that a high EPU is associated with adverse effects on households, corporations, and governments, which tend to delay many financial decisions under high uncertainty, which leads to lower consumption, fewer issuances of debt, fewer investments, and higher unemployment. The effects of political and regulatory uncertainty also extend to the commodity markets, such as the adverse effects on both oil and gasoline markets, and can potentially create adverse impacts on the crypto‐currency market and its potential growth. We demonstrate that governmental uncertainty also affects financial, housing, and equity markets; debt issuances; and the entire economy. This underscores the importance of considering EPU as a risk factor. The association with several components of the global economy reflects not only the EPU index's critical influence, but also the importance of risk management. Our results lead us to consider the gravity of economic policy uncertainty and call for innovation across different sectors to mitigate its adverse effects.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
This survey discusses behavioral and experimental macroeconomics, emphasizing a complex systems perspective. The economy consists of boundedly rational heterogeneous agents who do not fully ...understand their complex environment and use simple decision heuristics. Central to our survey is the question of under which conditions a complex macro-system of interacting agents may or may not coordinate on the rational equilibrium outcome. A general finding is that under positive expectations feedback (strategic complementarity)—where optimistic (pessimistic) expectations can cause a boom (bust)—coordination failures are quite common. The economy is then rather unstable, and persistent aggregate fluctuations arise strongly amplified by coordination on trend-following behavior leading to (almost-)self-fulfilling equilibria. Heterogeneous expectations and heuristics switching models match this observed micro and macro behavior surprisingly well. We also discuss policy implications of this coordination failure on the perfectly rational aggregate outcome and how policy can help to manage the self-organization process of a complex economic system.
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This paper uses historical monthly temperature level data for a panel of 114 countries to identify the effects of within year temperature level variability on productivity growth in five different ...macro regions, i.e., (1) Africa, (2) Asia, (3) Europe, (4) North America and (5) South America. We find two primary results. First, higher intra-annual temperature variability reduces (increases) productivity in Europe and North America (Asia). Second, higher intra-annual temperature variability has no significant effects on productivity in Africa and South America. Additional empirical tests indicate also the following: (1) rising intra-annual temperature variability reduces productivity (even thought less significantly)in both tropical and non-tropical regions, (2) inter-annual temperature variability reduces (increases) productivity in North America (Europe) and (3) winter and summer inter-annual temperature variability generates a drop in productivity in both Europe and North America. Taken together, these findings indicate that temperature variability shocks tend to have stronger adverse economic effects among richer economies. In a production economy featuring long-run productivity and temperature volatility shocks, we quantify these negative impacts and find welfare losses of 2.9% (1%) in Europe (North America).
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CEKLJ, EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
Studies of bond return predictability find a puzzling disparity between strong statistical evidence of return predictability and the failure to convert return forecasts into economic gains. We show ...that resolving this puzzle requires accounting for important features of bond return models such as volatility dynamics and unspanned macro factors. A three-factor model comprising a forward spread, a weighted combination of forward rates, and a macro factor generates notable gains in out-of-sample forecast accuracy compared with a model based on the expectations hypothesis. Such gains in predictive accuracy translate into higher risk-adjusted portfolio returns after accounting for estimation error and model uncertainty. Consistent with models featuring unspanned macro factors, our forecasts of future bond excess returns are strongly negatively correlated with survey forecasts of short rates.
The online appendix is available at
https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2017.2829
This paper was accepted by Gustavo Manso, finance.
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•Workforce research is neglected in the top 8 T&H journals, rated by Impact Factor.•The term ‘workforce’ unifies the multiple levels at which research is conducted.•T&H workforce research is ...disjointed in topics, analysis, theory and method.•Tourism vs. hospitality research gives different treatment to workforce issues.•A multi-level model presents a contextual framework for future workforce research.
This paper offers a critical review, purview and future view of ‘workforce’ research. We argue that the tourism (and hospitality) workforce research domain, beyond being neglected relative to its importance, suffers from piecemeal approaches at topic, analytical, theoretical and methods levels. We adopt a three-tiered macro, meso and micro level framework into which we map the five pervasive themes from our systematic review across a 10year period (2005–2014). A critique of the literature, following a ‘representations’ narrative, culminates in the development of a tourism workforce taxonomy, which we propose should provide the starting point for a pathway to guide the advancement of a more holistic approach to tourism workforce knowledge development.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
The genomic revolution has fundamentally changed how we survey biodiversity on earth. High‐throughput sequencing (“HTS”) platforms now enable the rapid sequencing of DNA from diverse kinds of ...environmental samples (termed “environmental DNA” or “eDNA”). Coupling HTS with our ability to associate sequences from eDNA with a taxonomic name is called “eDNA metabarcoding” and offers a powerful molecular tool capable of noninvasively surveying species richness from many ecosystems. Here, we review the use of eDNA metabarcoding for surveying animal and plant richness, and the challenges in using eDNA approaches to estimate relative abundance. We highlight eDNA applications in freshwater, marine and terrestrial environments, and in this broad context, we distill what is known about the ability of different eDNA sample types to approximate richness in space and across time. We provide guiding questions for study design and discuss the eDNA metabarcoding workflow with a focus on primers and library preparation methods. We additionally discuss important criteria for consideration of bioinformatic filtering of data sets, with recommendations for increasing transparency. Finally, looking to the future, we discuss emerging applications of eDNA metabarcoding in ecology, conservation, invasion biology, biomonitoring, and how eDNA metabarcoding can empower citizen science and biodiversity education.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Bayesian estimation of agent-based models Grazzini, Jakob; Richiardi, Matteo G.; Tsionas, Mike
Journal of economic dynamics & control,
04/2017, Volume:
77
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
We consider Bayesian inference techniques for agent-based (AB) models, as an alternative to simulated minimum distance (SMD). Three computationally heavy steps are involved: (i) simulating the model, ...(ii) estimating the likelihood and (iii) sampling from the posterior distribution of the parameters. Computational complexity of AB models implies that efficient techniques have to be used with respect to points (ii) and (iii), possibly involving approximations. We first discuss non-parametric (kernel density) estimation of the likelihood, coupled with Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling schemes. We then turn to parametric approximations of the likelihood, which can be derived by observing the distribution of the simulation outcomes around the statistical equilibria, or by assuming a specific form for the distribution of external deviations in the data. Finally, we introduce Approximate Bayesian Computation techniques for likelihood-free estimation. These allow embedding SMD methods in a Bayesian framework, and are particularly suited when robust estimation is needed. These techniques are first tested in a simple price discovery model with one parameter, and then employed to estimate the behavioural macroeconomic model of De Grauwe (2012), with nine unknown parameters.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
Abstract
In this paper, pyramidal notch array was pre-etched on P(100) silicon wafer using anisotropic wet chemical etching, then macro-pore/pillar array were successfully processed in the pyramidal ...notch array by an anodic electrochemical etching. The formation mechanism of macro-pore and pillar in pyramidal notch were investigated, it indicates that the silicon dissolution rate is proportional to electric field, while electric field is mainly concentrated on the tip, edges and corners of the pyramidal notch. Therefore, there is an etching rate difference between the notch corner and planar regions in the pyramid notch. The notch corners are preferentially etched at first, then a pore is formed in the notch. If the shape of the open window is truncated and the bottom size is large enough, four pores would initiate at the notch angels due to etching rate difference between the truncated pyramidal notch corner and notch center, consequently, a pillar is formed in the notch center.
Mediation of X's effect on Y through a mediator M is moderated if the indirect effect of X depends on a fourth variable. Hayes (2015). An index and test of linear moderated mediation. Multivariate ...Behavioral Research, 50, 1-22. doi:
10.1080/00273171.2014.962683
introduced an approach to testing a moderated mediation hypothesis based on an index of moderated mediation. Here, I extend this approach to models with more than one moderator. I describe how to test if X's indirect effect on Y is moderated by one variable when a second moderator is held constant (partial moderated mediation), conditioned on (conditional moderated mediation), or dependent on a second moderator (moderated moderated mediation). Examples are provided, as is a discussion of the visualization of indirect effects and an illustration of implementation in the PROCESS macro for SPSS and SAS.
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BFBNIB, NUK, PILJ, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
We examine the macro-spanning hypothesis for bond returns in international markets. Based on a large panel of real-time macroeconomic variables that are not subject to revisions, we find that global ...macro factors have predictive power for bond returns unspanned by yield factors. Furthermore, we estimate macro-finance term structure models with the unspanned global macro factors and find that the global macro factors influence the market prices of level and slope risks and induce comovements in forward term premia in global bond markets.
This paper was accepted by David Simchi-Levi, finance.
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