We study the impact of US quantitative easing (QE) on both the emerging and advanced economies, estimating a global vector error-correction model (GVECM). We focus on the effects of reductions in the ...US term and corporate spreads. The estimated effects of QE are sizeable and vary across economies. First, we find the QE impact from reducing the US corporate spread to be more important than that from lowering the US term spread, consistent with Blinder's (2012) argument. Second, counterfactual exercises suggest that successive US QE measures might have prevented episodes of prolonged recession and deflation in the advanced economies. Third, the estimated effects on the emerging economies are diverse but generally larger than those found for the United States and other advanced economies. The estimates suggest that US monetary policy spillovers contributed to the overheating in Brazil, China and some other emerging economies in 2010 and 2011, but supported their respective recoveries in 2009 and 2012. These heterogeneous effects point to unevenly distributed benefits and costs of cross-border monetary policy spillovers.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
We show that nonbank lenders act as global shock absorbers from US monetary policy spillovers. For identification, we exploit monetary policy surprises and the global syndicated lending market, where ...detailed loan-level data allow us to compare the participation of banks and nonbanks in the same loan. When US policy tightens, dollar credit to non-US firms falls, but nonbanks increase credit supply (relative to banks), thereby mitigating the total credit reduction. This relative increase is stronger for riskier non-US firms, proxied by emerging market firms, high-yield firms, or firms in countries with stronger capital inflow restrictions. Finally, there are real effects associated with the international nonbank channel of monetary policy, as firms with better access to nonbank credit relatively increase total corporate debt, investment, and employment.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
•Expansionary US monetary policy contributes to the Global Financial Cycle.•Economies with floating exchange rates are not fully insulated from US shocks.•Spillovers reinforced by the complex network ...of cross-country interactions.•Amplification increases as countries get more globally integrated over time.
We assess the international spillovers of US monetary policy with a large-scale global VAR which models the world economy as a network of interdependent countries. An expansionary US monetary policy shock contributes to the emergence of a Global Financial Cycle, which boosts macroeconomic activity worldwide. We also find that economies with floating exchange rate regimes are not fully insulated from US monetary policy shocks and, even though they appear to be relatively less affected by the shocks, the differences in responses across exchange rate regimes are not statistically significant. The role of US monetary policy in driving these macro-financial spillovers gets even reinforced by the complex network of interactions across countries, to the extent that network effects roughly double the direct impacts of US monetary policy surprises on international equity prices, capital flows, and global growth. This amplification increases as countries get more globally integrated over time, suggesting that the evolving network is an important driver for the increasing role of US monetary policy in shaping the Global Financial Cycle.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
How does domestic monetary policy in systemic countries spillover to the rest of the world? This paper examines the transmission channel of domestic monetary policy in the cross-border context. We ...use exogenous shocks to monetary policy in systemically important economies, including the U.S., and local projections to estimate the dynamic effect of monetary policy shocks on bilateral cross-border bank lending. We find robust evidence that an increase in funding costs following an exogenous monetary tightening leads to a statistically and economically significant decline in cross-border bank lending. The effect is weakened during periods of high uncertainty. In contrast, the effect is found to not vary according to the degree of borrower country riskiness, further weakening support for the international portfolio rebalancing channel.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
This study examines the transmission of international monetary policy spillovers across developed economies based on a Bayesian time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) connectedness ...methodology. The analysis is based on daily shadow short rates over the period of January 2, 1995 to December 20, 2018. The empirical findings suggest that the magnitude of international monetary policy spillovers behaves heterogeneously over time, with unprecedented heights reached during the Great Recession of 2009, suggesting potential gains from unconventional monetary policy coordination. In addition, the results indicate that the dominant transmitters of international monetary policy spillovers are the Euro Area and the US, while Japan and the UK are the dominant receivers of spillovers. Our results are robust to alternative experimentations in terms of estimation and prior choices used to estimate the TVP-VAR.
•Examine the transmission of international monetary policy spillovers across developed economies based on a Bayesian TVP-VAR.•Results reveal that international monetary policy spillovers behaves heterogeneously over time.•Dominant transmitters of international monetary policy spillovers are the EA and the US, while Japan and the UK are the dominant receivers of spillovers.•Implications of potential gains from unconventional monetary policy coordination are discussed.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
We show significant US monetary policy (MP) spillovers to international bond markets. Our methodology identifies US MP shocks as the change in short-term Treasury yields around Federal Open Market ...Committee meetings and traces their effects on international bond yields using panel regressions. We emphasize three main results. First, US MP spillovers to long-term yields have increased substantially after the 2007–2009 global financial crisis. Second, spillovers are large compared with the effects of other events, and at least as large as the effects of domestic MP after 2008. Third, spillovers work through different channels, concentrated in risk-neutral rates (expectations of future MP rates) for developed countries, but predominantly on term premia in emerging markets. In interpreting these findings, we provide evidence consistent with an exchange rate channel, according to which foreign central banks face a trade-off between narrowing MP rate differentials or experiencing currency movements against the US dollar. Developed countries adjust in a manner consistent with freely floating regimes, responding partially with risk-neutral rates and partially through currency adjustments. Instead, emerging countries display patterns consistent with foreign exchange interventions, which cushion the response of exchange rates but reinforce capital flows and their effects in bond yields through movements in term premia. Our results suggest that the endogenous effects of currency interventions on long-term yields should be added into the standard cost-benefit analysis of such policies.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
This paper studies the synchronization of financial cycles across 17 advanced economies over the past 150 years. The comovement in credit, house prices, and equity prices has reached historical highs ...in the past three decades. While comovement of credit and house prices increased in line with growing real sector integration, comovement of equity prices has increased above and beyond growing real sector integration. The sharp increase in the comovement of global equity markets is particularly notable. We demonstrate that fluctuations in risk premiums, and not risk-free rates and dividends, account for a large part of the observed equity price synchronization after 1990. We also show that US monetary policy has come to play an important role as a source of fluctuations in risk appetite across global equity markets. These fluctuations are transmitted across both fixed and floating exchange rate regimes, but the effects are more muted in floating rate regimes.
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BFBNIB, CEKLJ, DOBA, EMUNI, FIS, FZAB, GEOZS, GIS, IJS, IMTLJ, IZUM, KILJ, KISLJ, MFDPS, NLZOH, NMLJ, NUK, OBVAL, OILJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, SBMB, SBNM, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VKSCE, ZAGLJ
This paper relies on a high‐frequency identification approach to provide new insights into monetary policy spillovers by major central banks. Our long and broad sample (1999–2019, from four major ...economies to 47 advanced and emerging market economies) allows us to accurately identify the properties of spillovers and to shed light on different transmission channels. We find that spillovers by the Fed to foreign interest rates are economically large, but more surprisingly, document an intensification of spillovers by the European Central Bank over time. Spillovers are more significant to bond yields in advanced economies than they are to those in emerging markets. Differentiating across key spillover channels, we find strongest support for a financial links channel, but weaker evidence for the macroeconomic links channel and foreign exchange regime channel.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
This study investigates time and frequency connectedness between monetary policy in the US and 7 African countries to determine the extent to which US monetary policy influences policy conduct ...amongst African Central Banks. We use a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) framework with frequencies to extract the spectral representation of the forecast error variance decompositions of the TVP-VAR and form 3 bands of frequency strata corresponding to long-run, medium-run and short-run. The results of the study are as follows: firstly, the static analysis shows that the US is the dominant transmitter of systemic shocks across all frequencies and the vulnerability of African countries as recipients of these shocks varies across frequency bands. Secondly, the dynamic analysis further reveals stronger short- and medium-run systemic connectedness during the periods of the Large Scale Asset Purchase programme and forward guidance policies whereas long-run connectedness is prominent during periods of US conventional monetary policy particularly in the COVID-19 era. The findings from the country-by-country dynamic spillover specifically show that countries which are more (less) responsive to US monetary policy shocks have lower (higher) inflation rates averages since the start of the pandemic. The findings suggest that African Central Banks can be benefit from higher coordination with the US Federal Reserve and we further propose that Central Banks worldwide in setting similar inflation targets.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
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