The impact of terrorism on European tourism Corbet, Shaen; O’Connell, John F.; Efthymiou, Marina ...
Annals of tourism research,
March 2019, 2019-03-00, 20190301, Volume:
75
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
•We use an ARMA-GARCH model that examines changes in tourism to European terrorism.•Traffic flows are found to fall despite significant fare reductions.•Traffic varies substantially based on the ...flight origin and ticket-type purchased.•Business travel slows substantially due to duty of care for corporate transport.•Fare response was unable to mitigate substantial reductions in passenger demand.
This paper estimates the influence of terrorist attacks on European tourism through the short-term post hoc response of the airline industry and passengers. We use a seasonally-adjusted ARMA-GARCH methodology on unique datasets that examine changes in tourism as measured by ASKs, seats filled and changes in both fares and revenues. Traffic flows are found to fall despite significant fare reductions; however, this response varies substantially based on the flight origin and ticket-type purchased. We found that business travel slows substantially due to duty of care legislation for corporate transport. While we found evidence indicating substantial airline fare reductions, in the majority of investigated cases this response was unable to mitigate substantial reductions in passenger demand and flows across varying ticket types.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
Forecast reconciliation is a post-forecasting process that involves transforming a set of incoherent forecasts into coherent forecasts which satisfy a given set of linear constraints for a ...multivariate time series. In this paper, we extend the current state-of-the-art cross-sectional probabilistic forecast reconciliation approach to encompass a cross-temporal framework, where temporal constraints are also applied. Our proposed methodology employs both parametric Gaussian and non-parametric bootstrap approaches to draw samples from an incoherent cross-temporal distribution. To improve the estimation of the forecast error covariance matrix, we propose using multi-step residuals, especially in the time dimension where the usual one-step residuals fail. To address high-dimensionality issues, we present four alternatives for the covariance matrix, where we exploit the two-fold nature (cross-sectional and temporal) of the cross-temporal structure, and introduce the idea of overlapping residuals. We assess the effectiveness of the proposed cross-temporal reconciliation approaches through a simulation study that investigates their theoretical and empirical properties and two forecasting experiments, using the Australian GDP and the Australian Tourism Demand datasets. For both applications, the optimal cross-temporal reconciliation approaches significantly outperform the incoherent base forecasts in terms of the continuous ranked probability score and the energy score. Overall, the results highlight the potential of the proposed methods to improve the accuracy of probabilistic forecasts and to address the challenge of integrating disparate scenarios while coherently taking into account short-term operational, medium-term tactical, and long-term strategic planning.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
We investigate the effect of migration rates on international tourism flows and whether linguistic networks and common languages affect the relationship between migration rates and tourist flows. We ...utilize the gravity data set consisting of 166 origin and 30 destination countries, over the 1995–2010 period for the empirical analysis. The results show that increased migration rates lead to higher international tourism flows in destination countries. This effect becomes even stronger when the destination country has a larger linguistic network. Migration matters less, however, when a country-pair shares closer linguistic ties. The findings of this study will help to inform public, and tourism industry policies aimed at boosting sustainable tourism flows, especially post COVID-19 pandemic. Targeted immigration policies, such as those that seek to attract foreign workers with specific skill sets, tend to enlarge linguistic networks and contribute to multilingualism, which in turn can boost international tourism flows.
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NUK, OILJ, SAZU, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
•Low-cost carrier flight supply boosts international tourism to Italy.•Weak/smaller evidence on tourism is found in the case of full-service carriers.•Results are robust to different estimation ...techniques.
This paper analyzes the effect of flight supply on international tourism flows between 20 Italian regions and 24 European countries, observed half-yearly from 1999 to 2010. We find that low-cost carriers have a prominent role in attracting international tourism flows. Our estimates suggest that an additional round-trip flight operated by a low-cost carrier generates about 74 arrivals and 248 overnight stays in hotels or similar facilities; in the case of a full-service carrier these figures decrease to 29 and 97, respectively. These findings are relevant for the current debate on the drivers of tourism development.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
This study investigates the effect of regional trade agreements (RTAs)—including preferential and free trade agreements, customs unions, and common markets—on bilateral tourism flows. We explore ...these effects using a panel gravity data set of 163 destination countries, 171 source countries, and 13,589 country-pairs from 1995 to 2015. This is the first large cross-country study to undertake such an integrated analysis using the gravity framework. Results show that all types of RTAs have a positive and significant effect on bilateral tourism flows. The overall indicator of RTAs that captures the combined effect of all types of RTAs on bilateral tourism flows is also positive and significant, on average, as well as when different regions are separately evaluated. These findings underscore the importance of strong economic integration in fostering international tourism flows. Policies aimed at improving a country’s economic integration with other countries can help promote international tourism flows.
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NUK, OILJ, SAZU, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
This paper proposes a data science approach based on Benford's Law to analyse tourist flows – being tourism a relevant economic sector in Sicily. In particular, we are interested in detecting ...irregular patterns in the numerical data that may represent manipulations, inaccuracies or biases in the self-reported data from tourism organisations. The analysis is carried out by using monthly data for arrivals and overnight stays in hotels, B&Bs, and complementary accommodations in the seven provinces of the island from January 2016 to December 2019.
We perform the analysis by employing several statistical tests and through a visual inspection of the difference between the empirical distributions and the theoretical Benford's.
Conformity to Benford's distribution is mostly confirmed for the total number of overnight stays and the data considered on a yearly basis. On the contrary, we found evident deviations from Benford's Law in the empirical distribution of data broken down by nationality of tourist and accommodation type. Some comments on possible motivations for such deviations are also advanced, even though a detailed exploration of them deserves a devoted study.
•We discuss data validity through compliance with Benford's Law.•We employ a wide set of statistical tests for testing the compliance.•We consider the empirical case of touristic flows in Sicily for a quadrennium.•We discuss deviations and regularities of the data from Benford's Law.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
In this study, a GMM panel data estimation is used to investigate the main determinants of Italian domestic tourism demand as measured by regional bilateral tourism flows. The analysis is developed ...both at aggregate level and for the two traditional macro-areas of the country, namely Centre-North and South. For the whole nation, the importance of traditional economic variables in determining domestic tourism flows is confirmed. However tourist actual choices appear also to be influenced by past experiences and by regional differences in the quality of the wider environment. Additionally it appears that, for Italian tourists, domestic and international destinations behave as substitutable goods. The sub-sample analysis highlights some interesting differences between macro-areas. In particular, southern tourists appear more responsive to income variations, and less sensitive to prices differentials than their northern counterparts. Moreover, the degree of competition between domestic and outbound trips is higher in the South. Finally, southern tourists seem to be more influenced by environmental attributes while northern tourists are more sensitive to cultural activities.
► First contribution analyzing Italian interregional domestic tourism flows determinants. ► Spatial interaction model. ► Habit formation, relative prices and per capita GDP are the main determinants. ► Southern Tourists seem more concerned than northern ones about
GDP and environmental quality. ► Domestic and international destinations act as substitutable goods.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
Notwithstanding the systematic inclusion of an exchange rate variable of some form in studies examining international tourism flows, hardly any research has been carried out to test for a possible ...exchange rate regime effect. Drawing from recent advances in exchange rate regime classifications, this paper begins to fill this gap by investigating the impact of exchange rate regimes on international tourism flows. The study employs a system generalized methods of moments (SYS-GMM) estimation for tourist arrivals on a panel of 27 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and non OECD countries for the period 1980–2011. The results identify multiple exchange rate regime effects and support the importance of maintaining a relatively stable exchange rate to attract international tourist arrivals.
•Investigation of impact of exchange rate regimes on international tourism flows.•Application of SYS-GMM estimation on a panel of 27 countries over 1980–2011.•Multiple exchange rate regime effects are found.•Findings support the importance of maintaining a relatively stable exchange rate.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
Given the importance of tourism as a catalyst for local economic growth, the identification of tourist flows determinants is also important. This paper reports results from an econometric study of ...tourism flows for the 107 Italian provinces based on origin–destination (OD) spatial interaction models. In addition to distance, the set of explanatory variables includes both pull and push characteristics to assess their relative roles in determining the attractiveness of the provinces to tourists. Hence measures are incorporated for income, density, accessibility, and natural, cultural and recreational attractions. The main results indicate the importance of spatial dependency induced by neighbouring provinces as both origins of, and destinations for trips, a factor commonly overlooked by previous contributions relying on the gravity specification. Inter-neighbouring interactive effects are thus important, and most explanatory variables exhibit the expected effect, with distance and population density showing a negative impact on tourists' decisions when choosing a specific destination, while income, accessibility and attractions are crucial determinants of tourism flows.
► Analysis of demand and supply determinants of domestic tourism flows in Italian provinces. ► Application of spatial econometric interaction model for origin-destination dependence. ► Neighbouring territories highly influence determinants of domestic tourism. ► Less crowded destinations with natural, cultural and recreational amenities attract tourism flows. ► Managers and public institutions at local and national levels should integrate firms' strategies and tourism policies.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
High-speed rail (HSR) connectivity can compress travel time and space distances and have a significant impact on trans-regional tourism flows. Using panel data on trans-regional flows of inbound ...tourism in 31 provinces of China from 2004 to 2019, this paper takes the HSR connectivity as a quasi-natural experiment and constructs a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model to empirically test the impact and the mechanism of the HSR connectivity on flows of inbound tourists.
The results show that: The HSR connectivity has a significant positive effect on the trans-regional flow of inbound tourists; The connectivity of HSR has a greater impact on the trans-regional flow of inbound tourists in both western regions and regions with higher and lower tourism resource endowments. And the impact of HSR connectivity on trans-regional flows of inbound tourists is stronger in economically developed regions; the space-time distance in the trans-regional flows of inbound tourists can be compressed by the HSR connectivity. This paper provides policy recommendations for optimizing HSR routes to promote sustainable tourism development.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UILJ, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZAGLJ, ZRSKP
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