When assessing global water resources with hydrological models, it is essential to know about methodological uncertainties. The values of simulated water balance components may vary due to different ...spatial and temporal aggregations, reference periods, and applied climate forcings, as well as due to the consideration of human water use, or the lack thereof. We analyzed these variations over the period 1901–2010 by forcing the global hydrological model WaterGAP 2.2 (ISIMIP2a) with five state-of-the-art climate data sets, including a homogenized version of the concatenated WFD/WFDEI data set. Absolute values and temporal variations of global water balance components are strongly affected by the uncertainty in the climate forcing, and no temporal trends of the global water balance components are detected for the four homogeneous climate forcings considered (except for human water abstractions). The calibration of WaterGAP against observed long-term average river discharge Q significantly reduces the impact of climate forcing uncertainty on estimated Q and renewable water resources. For the homogeneous forcings, Q of the calibrated and non-calibrated regions of the globe varies by 1.6 and 18.5 %, respectively, for 1971–2000. On the continental scale, most differences for long-term average precipitation P and Q estimates occur in Africa and, due to snow undercatch of rain gauges, also in the data-rich continents Europe and North America. Variations of Q at the grid-cell scale are large, except in a few grid cells upstream and downstream of calibration stations, with an average variation of 37 and 74 % among the four homogeneous forcings in calibrated and non-calibrated regions, respectively. Considering only the forcings GSWP3 and WFDEI_hom, i.e., excluding the forcing without undercatch correction (PGFv2.1) and the one with a much lower shortwave downward radiation SWD than the others (WFD), Q variations are reduced to 16 and 31 % in calibrated and non-calibrated regions, respectively. These simulation results support the need for extended Q measurements and data sharing for better constraining global water balance assessments. Over the 20th century, the human footprint on natural water resources has become larger. For 11–18% of the global land area, the change of Q between 1941–1970 and 1971–2000 was driven more strongly by change of human water use including dam construction than by change in precipitation, while this was true for only 9–13 % of the land area from 1911–1940 to 1941–1970.
The WFDE5 dataset has been generated using the WATCH Forcing Data (WFD) methodology applied to surface meteorological variables from the ERA5 reanalysis. The WFDEI dataset had previously been ...generated by applying the WFD methodology to ERA-Interim. The WFDE5 is provided at 0.5∘ spatial resolution but has higher temporal resolution (hourly) compared to WFDEI (3-hourly). It also has higher spatial variability since it was generated by aggregation of the higher-resolution ERA5 rather than by interpolation of the lower-resolution ERA-Interim data. Evaluation against meteorological observations at 13 globally distributed FLUXNET2015 sites shows that, on average, WFDE5 has lower mean absolute error and higher correlation than WFDEI for all variables. Bias-adjusted monthly precipitation totals of WFDE5 result in more plausible global hydrological water balance components when analysed in an uncalibrated hydrological model (WaterGAP) than with the use of raw ERA5 data for model forcing. The dataset, which can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.20d54e34 (C3S, 2020b), is distributed by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) through its Climate Data Store (CDS, C3S, 2020a) and currently spans from the start of January 1979 to the end of 2018. The dataset has been produced using a number of CDS Toolbox applications, whose source code is available with the data – allowing users to regenerate part of the dataset or apply the same approach to other data. Future updates are expected spanning from 1950 to the most recent year. A sample of the complete dataset, which covers the whole of the year 2016, is accessible without registration to the CDS at https://doi.org/10.21957/935p-cj60 (Cucchi et al., 2020).
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IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UL, UM, UPUK
To accurately project future water availability under a drying climate, it is important to understand how precipitation is partitioned into other terrestrial water balance components, such as fluxes ...(evaporation, transpiration, runoff) and changes in storage (soil moisture, groundwater). Many studies have reported unexpected large runoff reductions during drought, particularly for multi‐year events, and some studies report a persistent change in partitioning even after the meteorological drought has ended. This study focused on understanding how actual evapotranspiration (AET) and change in subsurface storage (ΔS) respond to climate variability and change, examining Australia's Millennium Drought (MD, 1997–2009). The study initially conducted a catchment‐scale water balance analysis to investigate interactions between ΔS and AET. Then the water balance analysis was extended to regional scale to investigate ΔS using interpolated rainfall and discharge with remotely sensed AET. Lastly, we evaluated conceptual rainfall‐runoff model performance of two commonly used models against these water balance estimates. The evaluation of water‐balance‐derived ΔS against Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) estimates shows a significant multiyear storage decline; however, with different rates. In contrast, AET rates (annualized) remained approximately constant before and during the MD, contrasting with some reports of evapotranspiration enhancement elsewhere. Overall, given AET remained approximately constant, drought‐induced precipitation reductions were partitioned into ΔS and streamflow. The employed conceptual rainfall‐runoff models failed to realistically represent AET during the MD, suggesting the need for improved conceptualization of processes. This study provides useful implications for explaining future hydrological changes if similar AET behavior is observed under a drying climate.
Key Points
For a multiyear drought, we investigated the impact of precipitation reductions on water balance fluxes and change in storage
Actual evapotranspiration was approximately unchanged even under prolonged droughts in a water‐limited region
Because of this, precipitation reduction during the multiyear drought was partitioned into reductions in streamflow and subsurface storage
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
We examined changes in catchment‐scale annual and seasonal evapotranspiration after 50% strip thinning, using runoff data from headwater catchments. The short‐term water balance (STWB) method between ...periods from 8 to 100 days was applied to the treated (KT) and control (KC) catchments. The estimated evapotranspiration during the pre‐ and post‐thinning periods were 840 and 910 and 780 and 860 mm/year in the catchments KT and KC, respectively. According to a paired catchment analysis of estimated evapotranspiration, monthly evapotranspiration increased from 3 to 20 mm from June to December, while it decreased from 7 to 31 mm from January to May. The estimated annual and monthly evapotranspiration was compatible with the values monitored in the plot‐scale interception, canopy transpiration, and ground surface evapotranspiration. Our findings showed that the decreases in evapotranspiration due to 50% thinning were similar or different in different methods of measurement when compared with thinning in the other catchments around the world. The STWB model can evaluate the effects of timber harvesting on changes in evapotranspiration (ET), including the reproduction of seasonal patterns of ET.
The seasonal changes in treatment effects of evapotranspiration after 50% strip‐thinning was found in this study. According to a paired catchment analysis, monthly evapotranspiration increased between 3 and 20 mm from June to December, while it decreased between 7 and 31 mm from January to May. Our findings showed The STWB model can evaluate the effects of timber harvesting on changes in evapotranspiration, including the reproduction of seasonal patterns of evapotranspiration.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
The main objective of this study was to calibrate and validate the eco-hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with satellite-based actual evapotranspiration (AET) data from the ...Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM_v3.0a) and from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Global Evaporation (MOD16) for the Ogun River Basin (20 292 km2) located in southwestern Nigeria. Three potential evapotranspiration (PET) equations (Hargreaves, Priestley–Taylor and Penman–Monteith) were used for the SWAT simulation of AET. The reference simulations were the three AET variables simulated with SWAT before model calibration took place. The sequential uncertainty fitting technique (SUFI-2) was used for the SWAT model sensitivity analysis, calibration, validation and uncertainty analysis. The GLEAM_v3.0a and MOD16 products were subsequently used to calibrate the three SWAT-simulated AET variables, thereby obtaining six calibrations–validations at a monthly timescale. The model performance for the three SWAT model runs was evaluated for each of the 53 subbasins against the GLEAM_v3.0a and MOD16 products, which enabled the best model run with the highest-performing satellite-based AET product to be chosen. A verification of the simulated AET variable was carried out by (i) comparing the simulated AET of the calibrated model to GLEAM_v3.0b AET, which is a product that has different forcing data than the version of GLEAM used for the calibration, and (ii) assessing the long-term average annual and average monthly water balances at the outlet of the watershed. Overall, the SWAT model, composed of the Hargreaves PET equation and calibrated using the GLEAM_v3.0a data (GS1), performed well for the simulation of AET and provided a good level of confidence for using the SWAT model as a decision support tool. The 95 % uncertainty of the SWAT-simulated variable bracketed most of the satellite-based AET data in each subbasin. A validation of the simulated soil moisture dynamics for GS1 was carried out using satellite-retrieved soil moisture data, which revealed good agreement. The SWAT model (GS1) also captured the seasonal variability of the water balance components at the outlet of the watershed. This study demonstrated the potential to use remotely sensed evapotranspiration data for hydrological model calibration and validation in a sparsely gauged large river basin with reasonable accuracy. The novelty of the study is the use of these freely available satellite-derived AET datasets to effectively calibrate and validate an eco-hydrological model for a data-scarce catchment.
Southeastern South America is influenced by moisture transport from lower latitudes, sustains intense convective storms and is a land–atmosphere coupling hotspot, but the interconnection between ...these processes is still not well understood. We present the warm‐season diurnal cycle climatology of the atmospheric water balance components in the South American Low‐Level Jet (SALLJ) exit region in northeastern Argentina during 1998–2012. Different precipitation‐based types of events (clear‐sky and rainy days) were explored together with processes tied to the land–atmosphere coupling at the daily scale. Our research was based on simulations with and without soil moisture–atmosphere coupling with the RCA4 regional climate model. A control simulation was compared with a sensitivity simulation where the soil moisture was prescribed with the daily climatological values from the control run. The ERA5 reanalysis and the satellite precipitation products TRMM‐3B42 v7 and CMORPH v1.0 bias‐corrected were used for comparative purposes. From the diurnal water balance analysis, we found that moisture flux convergence in the region is the main driver for nocturnal precipitation while local evapotranspiration feeds afternoon rain events. Rainy afternoons do not show differences between simulations, but rainy nights seem to be affected. Moreover, daily correlations between surface and boundary‐layer variables showed that the local coupling is weaker during rainy days than during clear‐sky days. Therefore, we suggest that changes in non‐local drivers, such as the moisture flux through the SALLJ, are more relevant for rainy nights than the local coupling.
We analyse the warm‐season diurnal cycle of atmospheric moisture balance in northeastern Argentina and how the daily land–atmosphere coupling can affect precipitation events. Moisture flux convergence in the region is the main driver for nocturnal precipitation while local evapotranspiration feeds afternoon rain events. The daily local land–atmosphere coupling is stronger during clear‐sky than during rainy days. Rainy afternoons do not show influence from the coupling while rainy nights seem to be influenced by non‐local drivers.
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BFBNIB, FZAB, GIS, IJS, KILJ, NLZOH, NUK, OILJ, SBCE, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
Soil pH regulates the capacity of soils to store and supply nutrients, and thus contributes substantially to controlling productivity in terrestrial ecosystems. However, soil pH is not an independent ...regulator of soil fertility-rather, it is ultimately controlled by environmental forcing. In particular, small changes in water balance cause a steep transition from alkaline to acid soils across natural climate gradients. Although the processes governing this threshold in soil pH are well understood, the threshold has not been quantified at the global scale, where the influence of climate may be confounded by the effects of topography and mineralogy. Here we evaluate the global relationship between water balance and soil pH by extracting a spatially random sample (n = 20,000) from an extensive compilation of 60,291 soil pH measurements. We show that there is an abrupt transition from alkaline to acid soil pH that occurs at the point where mean annual precipitation begins to exceed mean annual potential evapotranspiration. We evaluate deviations from this global pattern, showing that they may result from seasonality, climate history, erosion and mineralogy. These results demonstrate that climate creates a nonlinear pattern in soil solution chemistry at the global scale; they also reveal conditions under which soils maintain pH out of equilibrium with modern climate.
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IJS, KISLJ, NUK, SBMB, UL, UM, UPUK
▶ Evapotranspiration (ET) data are derived from a range of measurement systems including lysimeters, eddy covariance, Bowen ratio, water balance (gravimetric, neutron meter, other soil water ...sensing), sap flow, scintillometry and even satellite-based remote sensing and direct modeling. ▶ These measurement techniques require substantial experimental care and are prone to substantial biases in reported results. ▶ Basic principles of ET measurement systems are reviewed and causes of common error and biases endemic to systems are discussed. ▶ Recommendations are given for reducing error in ET retrievals. ▶ Upper limits on ET measurements and derived crop coefficients are proposed.
More and more evapotranspiration models, evapotranspiration crop coefficients and associated measurements of evapotranspiration (ET) are being reported in the literature and used to develop, calibrate and test important ET process models. ET data are derived from a range of measurement systems including lysimeters, eddy covariance, Bowen ratio, water balance (gravimetric, neutron meter, other soil water sensing), sap flow, scintillometry and even satellite-based remote sensing and direct modeling. All of these measurement techniques require substantial experimental care and are prone to substantial biases in reported results. Reporting of data containing measurement biases causes substantial confusion and impedance to the advancement of ET models and in the establishment of irrigation water requirements, and translates into substantial economic losses caused by misinformed water management.
Basic principles of ET measuring systems are reviewed and causes of common error and biases endemic to systems are discussed. Recommendations are given for reducing error in ET retrievals. Upper limits on ET measurements and derived crop coefficients are proposed to serve as guidelines. The descriptions of errors common to measurement systems are intended to help practitioners collect better data as well as to assist reviewers of manuscripts and users of data and derived products in assessing quality, integrity, validity and representativeness of reported information. This paper is the first part of a two-part series, where the second part describes recommendations for documentation to be associated with published ET data.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK, ZRSKP
Soil moisture is a key variable of the climate system. It constrains plant transpiration and photosynthesis in several regions of the world, with consequent impacts on the water, energy and ...biogeochemical cycles. Moreover it is a storage component for precipitation and radiation anomalies, inducing persistence in the climate system. Finally, it is involved in a number of feedbacks at the local, regional and global scales, and plays a major role in climate-change projections. In this review, we provide a synthesis of past research on the role of soil moisture for the climate system, based both on modelling and observational studies. We focus on soil moisture–temperature and soil moisture–precipitation feedbacks, and their possible modifications with climate change. We also highlight further impacts of soil moisture on climate, and the state of research regarding the validation of the relevant processes.
There are promises for major advances in this research field in coming years thanks to the development of new validation datasets and multi-model initiatives. However, the availability of ground observations continues to be critical in limiting progress and should therefore strongly be fostered at the international level. Exchanges across disciplines will also be essential for bridging current knowledge gaps in this field. This is of key importance given the manifold impacts of soil moisture on climate, and their relevance for climate-change projections. A better understanding and quantification of the relevant processes would significantly help to reduce uncertainties in future-climate scenarios, in particular with regard to changes in climate variability and extreme events, as well as ecosystem and agricultural impacts.
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GEOZS, IJS, IMTLJ, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, OILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBCE, SBJE, UL, UM, UPCLJ, UPUK
Conventional rainfall frequency analysis faces several limitations. These include difficulty incorporating relevant atmospheric variables beyond precipitation and limited ability to depict the ...frequency of rainfall over large areas that is relevant for flooding. This study proposes a storm-based model of extreme precipitation frequency based on the atmospheric water balance equation. We developed a storm tracking and regional characterization (STARCH) method to identify precipitation systems in space and time from hourly ERA5 precipitation fields over the contiguous United States from 1951 to 2020. Extreme “storm catalogs” were created by selecting annual maximum storms with specific areas and durations over a chosen region. The annual maximum storm precipitation was then modeled via multivariate distributions of atmospheric water balance components using vine copula models. We applied this approach to estimate precipitation average recurrence intervals for storm areas from 5000 to 100 000 km2 and durations from 2 to 72 h in the Mississippi Basin and its five major subbasins. The estimated precipitation distributions show a good fit to the reference data from the original storm catalogs and are close to the estimates from conventional univariate GEV distributions. Our approach explicitly represents the contributions of water balance components in extreme precipitation. Of these, water vapor flux convergence is the main contributor, while precipitable water and a mass residual term can also be important, particularly for short durations and small storm footprints. We also found that ERA5 shows relatively good water balance closure for extreme storms, with a mass residual on average 10 % of precipitation. The approach can incorporate nonstationarities in water balance components and their dependence structures and can benefit from further advancements in reanalysis products and storm tracking techniques.
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