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Davis, C. A.
Geophysical research letters, 28 February 2018, Volume: 45, Issue: 4Journal Article
In recent years, global weather forecast models and global climate models have begun to depict intense tropical cyclones, even up to category 5 on the Saffir‐Simpson scale. In light of the limitation of horizontal resolution in such models, the author performs calculations, using the extended Best Track data for Atlantic tropical cyclones, to estimate the ability of models with differing grid spacing to represent Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity statistically. Results indicate that, under optimistic assumptions, models with horizontal grid spacing of one fourth degree or coarser should not produce a realistic number of category 4 and 5 storms unless there are errors in spatial attributes of the wind field. Furthermore, the case of Irma (2017) is used to demonstrate the importance of a realistic depiction of angular momentum and to motivate the use of angular momentum in model evaluation. Key Points Models with one fourth degree grid spacing or greater should simulate few extreme hurricanes if outer winds are consistent with observations Comparison of models across a broad range of resolution is inhibited by the use of maximum wind as a primary evaluation metric
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