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Liu, Chao; Zhang, Wenjun; Stuecker, Malte F.; Jin, Fei‐Fei
Geophysical research letters, 28 November 2019, Volume: 46, Issue: 22Journal Article
Previous studies argued that the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) impacts tropical cyclone (TC) genesis variability over the southeastern part of the western North Pacific (SE‐WNP). Here, we find that the statistical relationship between PMM and SE‐WNP TC genesis frequency is dominated by their co‐variability on decadal timescales. The decadal component of the PMM exhibits very similar temporal and spatial features to quasi‐decadal tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability. The latter can affect SE‐WNP TC activity via changes in both zonal vertical wind shear and low‐level vorticity. In contrast, the interannual component of the PMM exhibits no statistically significant correlation with SE‐WNP TC genesis. Furthermore, observations show that both interannual and decadal variability of SE‐WNP TC activity are well correlated with the commonly used Niño3.4 El Niño‐Southern Oscillation index. Thus, equatorial Pacific SST variability is the dominant source of SE‐WNP TC activity predictability on different timescales. Key Points PMM and WNP TC variability show a strong relationship on quasi‐decadal timescales but less so on interannual timescales PMM and central Pacific ENSO‐like SST variability are indistinguishable on quasi‐decadal timescales Equatorial Pacific SST variability impacts WNP TCs on both interannual and decadal timescales
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