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Lourenço, José; Maia de Lima, Maricelia; Faria, Nuno Rodrigues; Walker, Andrew; Kraemer, Moritz Ug; Villabona-Arenas, Christian Julian; Lambert, Ben; Marques de Cerqueira, Erenilde; Pybus, Oliver G; Alcantara, Luiz Cj; Recker, Mario
eLife, 09/2017, Volume: 6Journal Article
The Zika virus has emerged as a global public health concern. Its rapid geographic expansion is attributed to the success of mosquito vectors, but local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the Chikungunya epidemic in Brazil and was one of the first urban centres to report Zika infections. Using a climate-driven transmission model and notified Zika case data, we show that a low observation rate and high vectorial capacity translated into a significant attack rate during the 2015 outbreak, with a subsequent decline in 2016 and fade-out in 2017 due to herd-immunity. We find a potential Zika-related, low risk for microcephaly per pregnancy, but with significant public health impact given high attack rates. The balance between the loss of herd-immunity and viral re-importation will dictate future transmission potential of Zika in this urban setting.
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