Superlattice (SL) thin films composed of refractory ceramics unite extremely high hardness and enhanced fracture toughness; a material combination which is often mutually exclusive. While the hardness enhancement is well described by existing models based on dislocation mobility, the underlying mechanisms behind the increase in fracture toughness are yet to be unraveled. Here, we provide a model based on linear elasticity theory to predict the fracture toughness in (semi-)epitaxial nanolayers. As representative of cubic transition metal nitrides, a TiN/CrN superlattice structure on MgO (100) is studied. The density of misfit dislocations is estimated by minimizing the overall strain energy, each time a new layer is added on the nanolayered stack. The partly relaxed coherency stresses are then used to calculate the apparent fracture toughness (Kapp) by applying the weight function method. The results show that Kapp increases steeply with increasing bilayer period for very thin SLs, before the values decline more gently along with the formation of misfit dislocations. The characteristic Kapp vs. bilayer-period-dependence nicely matches experimental trends. Importantly, all critical stress intensity values of the SLs clearly exceed the intrinsic fracture toughness of the layer materials, evincing the importance of coherency stresses for increasing the crack growth resistance. Display omitted •An algorithm based on elasticity theory is proposed to estimate the dislocation densities in ceramic superlattice thin films.•The bilayer period significantly influences the misfit dislocation densities and the associated coherency stresses.•Predictions of the apparent fracture toughness of TiN/CrN superlattices match experimental trends.•The model reveals the potential of a superlattice structure to increase the crack growth resistance of a thin film.