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Oliveira, Juliane F; Jorge, Daniel C P; Veiga, Rafael V; Rodrigues, Moreno S; Torquato, Matheus F; da Silva, Nivea B; Fiaccone, Rosemeire L; Cardim, Luciana L; Pereira, Felipe A C; de Castro, Caio P; Paiva, Aureliano S S; Amad, Alan A S; Lima, Ernesto A B F; Souza, Diego S; Pinho, Suani T R; Ramos, Pablo Ivan P; Andrade, Roberto F S
Nature communications, 01/2021, Volume: 12, Issue: 1Journal Article
COVID-19 is affecting healthcare resources worldwide, with lower and middle-income countries being particularly disadvantaged to mitigate the challenges imposed by the disease, including the availability of a sufficient number of infirmary/ICU hospital beds, ventilators, and medical supplies. Here, we use mathematical modelling to study the dynamics of COVID-19 in Bahia, a state in northeastern Brazil, considering the influences of asymptomatic/non-detected cases, hospitalizations, and mortality. The impacts of policies on the transmission rate were also examined. Our results underscore the difficulties in maintaining a fully operational health infrastructure amidst the pandemic. Lowering the transmission rate is paramount to this objective, but current local efforts, leading to a 36% decrease, remain insufficient to prevent systemic collapse at peak demand, which could be accomplished using periodic interventions. Non-detected cases contribute to a ∽55% increase in R . Finally, we discuss our results in light of epidemiological data that became available after the initial analyses.
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