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Pöss, Janine, MD; Köster, Jelena, MD; Fuernau, Georg, MD; Eitel, Ingo, MD; de Waha, Suzanne, MD; Ouarrak, Taoufik; Lassus, Johan, MD, PhD; Harjola, Veli-Pekka, MD, PhD; Zeymer, Uwe, MD; Thiele, Holger, MD; Desch, Steffen, MD
Journal of the American College of Cardiology, 04/2017, Volume: 69, Issue: 15Journal Article
Abstract Background Mortality in cardiogenic shock (CS) remains high. Early risk stratification is crucial to make adequate treatment decisions. Objectives This study sought to develop an easy-to-use, readily available risk prediction score for short-term mortality in patients with CS, derived from the IABP-SHOCK II (Intraaortic Balloon Pump in Cardiogenic Shock) trial. Methods The score was developed using a stepwise multivariable regression analysis. Results Six variables emerged as independent predictors for 30-day mortality and were used as score parameters: age >73 years, prior stroke, glucose at admission >10.6 mmol/l (191 mg/dl), creatinine at admission >132.6 μmol/l (1.5 mg/dl), Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction flow grade <3 after percutaneous coronary intervention, and arterial blood lactate at admission >5 mmol/l. Either 1 or 2 points were attributed to each variable, leading to a score in 3 risk categories: low (0 to 2), intermediate (3 or 4), and high (5 to 9). The observed 30-day mortality rates were 23.8%, 49.2%, and 76.6%, respectively (p < 0.0001). Validation in the IABP-SHOCK II registry population showed good discrimination with an area under the curve of 0.79. External validation in the CardShock trial population (n = 137) showed short-term mortality rates of 28.0% (score 0 to 2), 42.9% (score 3 to 4), and 77.3% (score 5 to 9; p < 0.001) and an area under the curve of 0.73. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a stepwise increase in mortality between the different score categories (0 to 2 vs. 3 to 4: p = 0.04; 0 to 2 vs. 5 to 9: p = 0.008). Conclusions The IABP-SHOCK II risk score can be easily calculated in daily clinical practice and strongly correlated with mortality in patients with infarct-related CS. It may help stratify patient risk for short-term mortality and might, thus, facilitate clinical decision making. (Intraaortic Balloon Pump in Cardiogenic Shock II IABP-SHOCK II; NCT00491036 )
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