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Taylor, Brendan; Guan, Jade
Asia policy, 04/2024, Volume: 19, Issue: 2Journal Article
This roundtable considers what role, if any, Asias so-called middle powers can play in response to growing tensions across the Taiwan Strait.1 What strategies and approaches are this category of states adopting as the likelihood of major conflict over this enduring flashpoint intensifies? How do Asias middle powers view the costs and risks of conflict over Taiwan, and what key factors inform their assessments? To what extent do their respective approaches exhibit commonalities and potential complementarities, and to what extent are they distinct or even completely divergent? Perhaps most importantly, do this regions middle powers- either individually or in concert-have the agency to shape the course of the Taiwan flashpoint? Or are they merely pawns in a larger geopolitical game? Even if the latter is true, what strategic choices might they make, especially in the event of conflict, and with what consequences?Much ink has already been spilled over this flashpoint in recent years as tensions have intensified. The bulk of this work has centered on the three key players in this unfolding drama-China, Taiwan, and the United States-focusing primarily on Beijing's coercive tactics targeting the island, Taiwan's shifting identity politics, and an increasingly fractious Sino-U.S. relationship.2 Some assessments have analyzed Japan-Taiwan security ties and Tokyo's likely responses in the event of a Taiwan conflict, but these have not considered Japan's role explicitly through a middle-power lens.3 Indeed, only a small handful of studies have considered the role that individual Asian middle powers might play-namely Australia or South Korea-either in advance or in the event of conflict over Taiwan.4 This is notwithstanding the significant stakes involved for these countries and the world. For instance, as modeling published by Bloomberg in January 2024 estimates, a war over Taiwan could cost an estimated $10 trillion, or 10% of global GDP, making the global financial crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine each appear pale by comparison.
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