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Gómez Martín, Eulalia; Máñez Costa, María; Egerer, Sabine; Schneider, Uwe A.
Science of the total environment, 11/2021, Volume: 794Journal Article
Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) have been gaining importance in many European cities to reduce floods' impacts. However, evidence of their effectiveness in reducing the impacts of droughts in rural areas are scarce. Besides, ignoring future climate conditions or the specific socio-economic context in which NBS is applied could decrease their long-term effectiveness. This study aims to stress the importance of developing scientifically-based and customised information on climate change impacts as a precondition for designing and implementing NBS. For that, a System Dynamic model was developed to analyse and understand the dynamic behaviour of NBS responding to different scenarios of climate change and socio-economic contexts. This article recognises the proactive involvement at all societal levels as an essential component to enhance and maintain ecosystem resilience and, therefore, NBS11MGWB: Medina del Campo Groundwater BodySD: System DynamicsRCP: Representative Concentration PathwaysGW: GroundwaterQSDM: Qualitative System Dynamics ModelGM: Group modelGMB: Group Model BuildingSC: Soil conservationETP: Potential EvapotranspirationEQ: Environmental QualityNJEO: New Jobs and economic opportunitiesSDM: System Dynamics ModelBAU: Business as usual scenarioNBS-NCA: Nature Based Solutions without citizens awareness scenarioeffectiveness. Thus, participatory modelling activities were carried out to engage stakeholders in the model development process to obtain relevant bottom-up information and organise stakeholders' collective knowledge in a graphical structure that captures the system's main dynamics. The Medina del Campo Groundwater Body was used as a frame for the analysis. The study results highlight the need for developing scientifically-based and customised information on the impacts of climate change on NBS as an essential precondition to maintain their long-term effectiveness. Display omitted •Nature-Based Solutions are inherently multidimensional.•Stakeholders knowledge should have real impact on the NBS assessment process.•NBS may not be sufficient to adapt to an intense climate change scenario.•Climate information is an essential precondition to design adaptable NBS.
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