Akademska digitalna zbirka SLovenije - logo
E-resources
Full text
Peer reviewed
  • External validation of a mu...
    von Both, Ulrich; Tsolia, Maria N; Zenz, Werner; Sagmeister, Manfred; Lim, Emma; Rivero-Calle, Irene; Usuf, Effua; Yeung, Shunmay; de Groot, Ronald; Cunnington, Aubrey; De, Tisham; Bellos, Evangelos; Hourmat, Sara; Jackson, Heather; Nichols, Samuel; Paz, Ivonne Pena; Shen, Ching-Fen; Abdulla, Amina; Ali, Ladan; Jorgensen, Rikke; Persand, Salina; Kim, Nayoung; Dudley, Julia; Richmond, Vivien; Tavliavini, Emma; Liu, Ching-Chuan; Wang, Shih-Min; Martinón-Torres, Federico; Castro, María Barreiro; Carnota, Sandra; Cebey-López, Miriam; Suárez, Carlos Durán; Gómez-Carballa, Alberto; Pérez, Belén Mosquera; Pardo-Seco, Jacobo; Rodríguez-Tenreiro, Carmen; Iglesias, Marisol Vilas; Pučuka, Zanda; Rudzāte, Aleksandra; Zaman, Syed M. A.; Borensztajn, Dorine M.; Agyeman, Philipp KA; Giannoni, Eric; Heininger, Ulrich; Schlapbach, Luregn J; Carrol, Enitan D; Cocklin, Elizabeth; Khanijau, Aakash; Marmarinos, Antonis; Syggelou, Kelly; Fink, Colin; Kohlmaier, Benno; Schweintzger, Nina A.; Pölz, Lena; Eber, Ernst; Gores, Gunther; Hauer, Almuthe; Keldorfer, Markus; Pilch, Heidemarie; Pfleger, Andreas; Pfurtscheller, Klaus; Sperl, Matthias; Stampfer, Laura; Till, Holger; Dewez, Juan Emmanuel; Hibberd, Martin; Miners, Alec; Groot, Ronald de; de Jonge, Marien I.; Alkema, Wynand; Huijnen, Martijn; Miedema, C.J.; Neeleman, C.; Tramper-Stranders, G.A.; Gurung, Meeru; Shrestha, Shrijana; Allen, Karen; Fabian, Daniel; McDonnell, Anne; Baxter, Frances; Bell, Ashley; Rhodes, Mathew; Oosthoek, Wilma; Arif, Tasnim; Bennet, Joshua; Giessen, Ilona van der; Rowlands, Emily; Velden, Fabian van der; Martin, Mike; Mistry, Ravi; Haas, Nikolaus; Keil, Julia; Lurz, Eberhard; Reiter, Karl; Schoen, Carola; Mallet, François; Pokorn, Marko; Bahovec, Natalija; van der Kuip, M.; Danhauser, Katharina

    Archives of disease in childhood, 01/2024, Volume: 109, Issue: 1
    Journal Article

    ObjectiveTo externally validate and update the Feverkids tool clinical prediction model for differentiating bacterial pneumonia and other serious bacterial infections (SBIs) from non-SBI causes of fever in immunocompromised children.DesignInternational, multicentre, prospective observational study embedded in PErsonalised Risk assessment in Febrile illness to Optimise Real-life Management across the European Union (PERFORM).SettingFifteen teaching hospitals in nine European countries.ParticipantsFebrile immunocompromised children aged 0–18 years.MethodsThe Feverkids clinical prediction model predicted the probability of bacterial pneumonia, other SBI or no SBI. Model discrimination, calibration and diagnostic performance at different risk thresholds were assessed. The model was then re-fitted and updated.ResultsOf 558 episodes, 21 had bacterial pneumonia, 104 other SBI and 433 no SBI. Discrimination was 0.83 (95% CI 0.71 to 0.90) for bacterial pneumonia, with moderate calibration and 0.67 (0.61 to 0.72) for other SBIs, with poor calibration. After model re-fitting, discrimination improved to 0.88 (0.79 to 0.96) and 0.71 (0.65 to 0.76) and calibration improved. Predicted risk <1% ruled out bacterial pneumonia with sensitivity 0.95 (0.86 to 1.00) and negative likelihood ratio (LR) 0.09 (0.00 to 0.32). Predicted risk >10% ruled in bacterial pneumonia with specificity 0.91 (0.88 to 0.94) and positive LR 6.51 (3.71 to 10.3). Predicted risk <10% ruled out other SBIs with sensitivity 0.92 (0.87 to 0.97) and negative LR 0.32 (0.13 to 0.57). Predicted risk >30% ruled in other SBIs with specificity 0.89 (0.86 to 0.92) and positive LR 2.86 (1.91 to 4.25).ConclusionDiscrimination and calibration were good for bacterial pneumonia but poorer for other SBIs. The rule-out thresholds have the potential to reduce unnecessary investigations and antibiotics in this high-risk group.