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  • Ocena stopnje reprodukcije okužbe in deleža okuženih z virusom SARS-CoV-2 v Sloveniji = Estimation of the reproductive number and the outbreak size of SARS-CoV-2 in Slovenia
    Manevski, Damjan ; Pohar Perme, Maja ; Blagus, Rok
    Background: The paper estimates the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions implemented to slow-down the SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in Slovenia. Our main measures of interest are the re-productive number ... in time and the total number of infected individuals. Methods: We apply a recently proposed Bayes model, which is built using most recent data of 12 (model A) or 10 European countries (model B, Spain and Italy excluded). Results: The reproductive number after lock-down is estimated to equal 0.6, with the whole 95% credible interval remaining below 1 [0.3-0.9]. By excluding Italy and Spain from the model (model B), the estimated reproductive number increases to 0.8 (95% credible interval [0.5-1.2]). The estimated proportion of infected individuals in Slovenia is below 1% (0.53 [0.23-1.01]% in model A and 0.66 [0.26-1.45]% in model B). Thus, it is our opinion that the official number of confirmed cases underestimates the true one approximately by a factor of 10. Conclusion: The results indicate that the interventions were successful, we estimate that the current reproductive number is below 1. We estimate that it is sensible to keep the current set of interventions for at least 2 more weeks, as we expect that this will ensure at least 5 additional weeks before the need to reinitiate lock-down.
    Vir: Zdravniški vestnik : glasilo Slovenskega zdravniškega društva = Slovenian medical journal = journal of Slovenian Medical Association. - ISSN 1318-0347 (Letn. 89, št. 11/12, nov.-dec. 2020, str. 591-602)
    Vrsta gradiva - članek, sestavni del ; neleposlovje za odrasle
    Leto - 2020
    Jezik - slovenski
    COBISS.SI-ID - 13349379

    Povezava(-e):

    https://vestnik.szd.si/index.php/ZdravVest/article/view/3068/2600
    Digitalna knjižnica Slovenije - dLib.si
    DOI

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