Akademska digitalna zbirka SLovenije - logo
VSE knjižnice (vzajemna bibliografsko-kataložna baza podatkov COBIB.SI)
  • Forecasting economic activity in a transition economy as a leading indicator approach
    Jagrič, Timotej ; Strašek, Sebastjan
    ǂThe ǂfuture income level is of central importance for a transition economy. Since the level of income is strongly related to aggregate economic activity, the measurement of future activity demands ... appropriate forecasting model. To construct such model it is necessary to select an indicator of economic activity, as well as a group of variables that, when adjusted, construct the composite (CLI) and diffuse (DLI) leading indicators that forecast the reference series. We develop a model where NBER method is modified with elements of Stock-Watson approach. The model is applied then on a small transition economy (Slovenia). The ex-post analysis suggests that in the period from 1992 to 2001, CLI and DLI forecast all turning points of aggregate economic activity. The average lead-time was 8 years, which is comparable with the performance of leading indicators in other countries.
    Vir: Journal of European economy. - ISSN 1684-906X (Vol. 2, no. 1, 2003, str. 115-130)
    Vrsta gradiva - članek, sestavni del
    Leto - 2003
    Jezik - angleški
    COBISS.SI-ID - 6995996

vir: Journal of European economy. - ISSN 1684-906X (Vol. 2, no. 1, 2003, str. 115-130)
loading ...
loading ...
loading ...

Vnos na polico