This paper analyses COVID-19 patients' dynamics during the first wave in the region of Castilla y León (Spain) with around 2.4 million inhabitants using multi-state competing risk survival models. ...From the date registered as the start of the clinical process, it is assumed that a patient can progress through three intermediate states until reaching an absorbing state of recovery or death. Demographic characteristics, epidemiological factors such as the time of infection and previous vaccinations, clinical history, complications during the course of the disease and drug therapy for hospitalised patients are considered as candidate predictors. Regarding risk factors associated with mortality and severity, consistent results with many other studies have been found, such as older age, being male, and chronic diseases. Specifically, the hospitalisation (death) rate for those over 69 is 27.2% (19.8%) versus 5.3% (0.7%) for those under 70, and for males is 14.5%(7%) versus 8.3%(4.6%)for females. Among patients with chronic diseases the highest rates of hospitalisation are 26.1% for diabetes and 26.3% for kidney disease, while the highest death rate is 21.9% for cerebrovascular disease. Moreover, specific predictors for different transitions are given, and estimates of the probability of recovery and death for each patient are provided by the model. Some interesting results obtained are that for patients infected at the end of the period the hazard of transition from hospitalisation to ICU is significatively lower (p < 0.001) and the hazard of transition from hospitalisation to recovery is higher (p < 0.001). For patients previously vaccinated against pneumococcus the hazard of transition to recovery is higher (p < 0.001). Finally, internal validation and calibration of the model are also performed.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Let P2,ac be the set of Borel probabilities on Rd with finite second moment and absolutely continuous with respect to Lebesgue measure. We consider the problem of finding the barycenter (or Fréchet ...mean) of a finite set of probabilities ν1,…,νk∈P2,ac with respect to the L2-Wasserstein metric. For this task we introduce an operator on P2,ac related to the optimal transport maps pushing forward any μ∈P2,ac to ν1,…,νk. Under very general conditions we prove that the barycenter must be a fixed point for this operator and introduce an iterative procedure which consistently approximates the barycenter. The procedure allows effective computation of barycenters in any location-scatter family, including the Gaussian case. In such cases the barycenter must belong to the family, thus it is characterized by its mean and covariance matrix. While its mean is just the weighted mean of the means of the probabilities, the covariance matrix is characterized in terms of their covariance matrices Σ1,…,Σk through a nonlinear matrix equation. The performance of the iterative procedure in this case is illustrated through numerical simulations, which show fast convergence towards the barycenter.
Este estudio profundiza en la historia de la Alpujarra durante la etapa morisca granadina (1500-1570). En concreto, en la parte de esta región que fue el distrito de Órgiva en época nazarí y la ...alquería de Busquístar, otorgadas en señorío a Gonzalo Fernández de Córdoba en 1499, mediante merced real. Denominada señorío de Órgiva y con una población mayoritaria de cristianos nuevos o moriscos, quedó sometida a la administración de ese señor temporal, y sus sucesores, y a la actuación de la Iglesia. Ofrecemos algunas de sus particularidades, como la gestión fiscal ejercida por sus titulares y la estructura eclesiástica planificada en su interior, pasando después a focalizar el trabajo en el enfrentamiento judicial que mantuvieron sus propietarios con la diócesis de Granada, durante las décadas centrales del siglo XVI, por el control de ciertas rentas que se generaban en este territorio, las diezmeras y las de bienes piadosos.
En este trabajo estudiamos las alquerías del distrito de Órgiva a finales del emirato nazarí de Granada a través, fundamentalmente, del análisis de dos memoriales inéditos de bienes habices piadosos ...recopilados en los años 1528 y 1531. Ofrecemos características de sus términos y áreas residenciales, junto a rasgos culturales y económicos significativos de las poblaciones musulmanas que habitaban este ámbito rural situado en la Alpujarra. Se trata de comunidades campesinas con un marcado carácter piadoso, visible en los edificios de culto religioso y en los numerosos bienes instituidos para mantenerlos. Organizadas en torno al aprovechamiento del agua, este recurso natural aparece domesticado mediante acequias y regulado con acuerdos colectivos que permiten fertilizar un paisaje de terrazas de cultivo, pequeñas y de parcelación excelsa, y contribuyen a sustentar económicamente a estas poblaciones por la práctica de una agricultura mayoritariamente irrigada, promiscua e intensiva.
•Positive precipitation trends are found in Mid-North California during winter.•Negative precipitation trends are noted in Mid-South California most of the year.•ENSO, NAO and AAO are highly ...correlated with rainfall in the first 4 months of the year.•PDO and PNA shown high correlations with precipitation in December.•ENSO is the pattern that might modulate precipitation in Mojave Climate Region.
The aim of this research is to enlarge knowledge of space-time evolution of precipitation in California over the last decade on a monthly, seasonal and annual time-scale. This study also analyses the relationship between precipitation and teleconnection patterns with most influence on Californian climate. The homogeneity of the data from the selected stations was verified and finally 165 meteorological stations were used with an observation period that ranged from 1980 to 2019. In order to evaluate trends and statistical significance, both the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and modified Sen’s slope method were used. Correlation analysis using the partial non-parametric Spearman Test (95% confidence level) was performed to find out relationships between precipitation and nine teleconnection patterns in the State of California. Spatial analysis was achieved using Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK). Finally, this research, as a novelty, shows regionalisation of California State as a function of significance in the correlation of precipitation with teleconnection patterns. To achieve this, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Agglomerative Hierarchical Cluster analysis (HCA) was performed. Results show a positive precipitation trend in winter and negative precipitation trend in late summer and autumn. The teleconnection patterns more correlated with precipitation are El Niño along Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Four areas were discerned outlining the Mojave Climate Region (Area 4) by having ENSO as the teleconnection pattern that best account precipitation.
•The wine sector plays a key role in the domestic Spanish economy.•A new integrated methodology is proposed for assessing suitable areas for viticulture.•The Compensated Thermicity Index is useful to ...delimitate potential areas for viticulture.•The approach is a helpful tool for agronomic and oenological management.
In 2018, Spain was the third largest producer and the leading exporter of wine in the world. Viticulture is an important economic activity in the Castilla y León region, and is an element capable of halting the flight from the countryside and favouring demographic settlement in rural areas. A new integrated methodology for characterizing and delimitating areas suitable for vineyard cultivation is proposed here. The approach combines traditional climate indices with others used in bioclimatology and with soil variables, and applies various statistical analyses to select the predictors that best characterize the vineyards. These predictors are then integrated in species distribution models and a geographic information system. The methodology was tested in the Denomination of Origin León (hereafter DO León) in northwest Spain. Ten single models using the maximum entropy modelling algorithm were run for each of the six wine-grape varieties. Single-model projections built as a consensus of the ten models into an ensemble-forecasting approach were later used to generate maps of suitable areas for each variety.
The results confirm the delimitation of the DO León as a Denomination of Origin. The bioclimatic variables Compensated Thermicity Index and Continentality Index and the soil variables pH, Clay Content, Soil Retention Capacity and Soil Saturation Humidity are defining for all the varieties studied. Garnacha and Mencía were the most different varieties in relation to their bioclimatic and soil requirements. Suitability maps revealed that the DO could be extended into neighbouring areas up to 30 km around it.
The proposed methodology is a useful tool for agronomic and oenological management; it allows a more effective selection of sites for new vineyards, improves vineyard management, and can even be used to protect territories with a historical and cultural heritage of grape cultivation, thus favouring demographic settlement in rural areas and avoiding depopulation.
A high frequency of mutations affecting the gene encoding Herpes Virus Entry Mediator (HVEM, TNFRSF14) is a common clinical finding in a wide variety of human tumors, including those of hematological ...origin.
We have addressed how HVEM expression on A20 leukemia cells influences tumor survival and its involvement in the modulation of the anti-tumor immune responses in a parental into F1 mouse tumor model of hybrid resistance by knocking-out HVEM expression. HVEM WT or HVEM KO leukemia cells were then injected intravenously into semiallogeneic F1 recipients and the extent of tumor dissemination was evaluated.
The loss of HVEM expression on A20 leukemia cells led to a significant increase of lymphoid and myeloid tumor cell infiltration curbing tumor progression. NK cells and to a lesser extent NKT cells and monocytes were the predominant innate populations contributing to the global increase of immune infiltrates in HVEM KO tumors compared to that present in HVEM KO tumors. In the overall increase of the adaptive T cell immune infiltrates, the stem cell-like PD-1
T cells progenitors and the effector T cell populations derived from them were more prominently present than terminally differentiated PD-1
T cells.
These results suggest that the PD-1
T cell subpopulation is likely to be a more relevant contributor to tumor rejection than the PD-1
T cell subpopulation. These findings highlight the role of co-inhibitory signals delivered by HVEM upon engagement of BTLA on T cells and NK cells, placing HVEM/BTLA interaction in the spotlight as a novel immune checkpoint for the reinforcement of the anti-tumor responses in malignancies of hematopoietic origin.
This work describes the relationships between Spanish temperature and four teleconnection patterns with influence on the Iberian Peninsula on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales, using data from ...144 meteorological stations. Partial correlation analyses were carried out using Spearman test, and spatial distribution maps of the correlation coefficients were produced with geostatistical interpolation techniques. We regionalize the study area based on homogeneous areas containing weather stations with a similar response of temperatures to the same patterns. The links between the temperature and the patterns are mainly positive; only the correlations with Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) in the north and west are negative, indicating that WeMO plays an opposed role in temperature behaviour in Spain. In general terms, the four modes exert considerable influence on temperature in February, May and September. The East Atlantic (EA) is the pattern with the strongest influence on temperature in Spain—mainly in the north—except in June. Generally, on the seasonal and annual scales, large significant areas were only observed for the EA. EA and WeMO best account for the mean temperature on the Mediterranean fringe and in northern Spain, while EA and North Atlantic Oscillation largely explain the temperature in the rest of Spain.
Robust clustering of functional directional data Álvarez-Esteban, Pedro C.; García-Escudero, Luis A.
Advances in data analysis and classification,
03/2022, Letnik:
16, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
A robust approach for clustering functional directional data is proposed. The proposal adapts “impartial trimming” techniques to this particular framework. Impartial trimming uses the dataset itself ...to tell us which appears to be the most outlying curves. A feasible algorithm is proposed for its practical implementation justified by some theoretical properties. A “warping” approach is also introduced which allows including controlled time warping in that robust clustering procedure to detect typical “templates”. The proposed methodology is illustrated in a real data analysis problem where it is applied to cluster aircraft trajectories.
Comparisons of different treatments or production processes are the goals of a significant fraction of applied research. Unsurprisingly, two-sample problems play a main role in statistics through ...natural questions such as "Is the the new treatment significantly better than the old?" However, this is only partially answered by some of the usual statistical tools for this task. More importantly, often practitioners are not aware of the real meaning behind these statistical procedures. We analyze these troubles from the point of view of the order between distributions, the stochastic order, showing evidence of the limitations of the usual approaches, paying special attention to the classical comparison of means under the normal model. We discuss the unfeasibility of statistically proving stochastic dominance, but show that it is possible, instead, to gather statistical evidence to conclude that slightly relaxed versions of stochastic dominance hold.
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