Abstract
Turkish foreign policy has dramatically transformed over the last two decades. In the first decade of the Justice and Development Party's (AKP) rule, the ‘logic of interdependence’ ...constituted the driving motive of Turkish foreign policy. In the second decade, however, the ‘logic of interdependence’ and the soft power-driven ‘mediator–integrator’ role were gradually replaced with a quest for ‘strategic autonomy’, accompanied by interventionism, unilateralism and coercive diplomacy. This article explores the causes of this dramatic shift. We argue that ‘strategic autonomy’, which goes beyond a moderate level of status-seeking compatible with Turkey's material power credentials, has a double connotation in the Turkish context. First, it constitutes a framework for the Turkish ruling elite to align with the non-western great powers and balance the US-led hierarchical order. Second, and more importantly, it serves as a legitimating foreign policy discourse for the government to mobilize its electoral base at home, fragment opposition and accrue popular support. We conclude that the search for autonomy from its western allies and the move towards the Russia–China axis has led to Turkey's isolation and permitted the emergence of new forms of dependence.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, ODKLJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
La pérdida de impulso reformador y el creciente autoritarismo de la más reciente fase de gobierno del AKP nos indican que la democracia turca está en crisis. Las protestas de Gezi, aunque emergieron ...como un movimiento desde abajo en respuesta al creciente autoritarismo del gobierno del AKP, no llegaron a convertirse en un movimiento organizado y sostenido. Asimismo, los referentes externos y sus efectos sobre la reputación de la democracia turca no están consiguiendo revertir su involución. La noción de “comunidades acotadas” es un concepto clave para explicar la continuada dominación de Erdoğan y el AKP frente a fuertes presiones de cambio. La victoria de Erdoğan en las elecciones presidenciales de agosto de 2014 genera escenarios tanto benévolos como pesimistas para el futuro de la democracia turca.
The paper considers the broad economic and political shifts in Turkey in the AKP's post-2011 phase. The 'reactive state' model developed to understand Turkey's political economic transitions is ...relevant to the new era of 'developmentalism' with authoritarian features. Global shifts coupled with important domestic political shifts are at the heart of the new developmental trajectory. The growing importance of the Russia-China axis, with the relative decline of the West, has been making a key impact in filling the vacuum in the European periphery. Turkish experience is a striking illustration of this broader tendency. Comparative historical experience is utilized to understand the key features of the new era in Turkey. Comparisons are made with the early AKP era and attention is drawn to broad parallels with Russian development experience since early 1990s. A key element here is the process of 'extensive' growth, based on different resource configurations. Land and construction activities constitute a key engine in the Turkish context, contrary to the dominant role of oil and gas in Russia. Finally, the paper probes into challenges of sustainability which raise questions concerning the AKP's extraordinary durability as a hegemonic force in Turkish politics over the past 16 years.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, ODKLJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
In power since 2002, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan seemed as if it might be losing its hold when Turkish voters went to the polls in June 2015. Yet that “hung ...election” gave way to another contest in November, and the AKP came roaring back.
Turkish-European Union (EU) relations in the broader context of the transatlantic alliance have been one of the defining features of Turkish foreign policy in the post-war era. The article identifies ...elements of the cyclical nature of the relationship and missed opportunities, notably in the 1970s and the early 2000s, which have been costly both to Turkey and the EU. Domestic politics and crises both in Turkey and the EU have played an important role in shaping the long-term dynamics of this complex and mutually important relationship. The emerging post-Western order has contributed to the decline and recent stalemate in Turkey-EU relations. The article probes into the possibilities of a revival in Turkey-EU relations and consider whether the Russian war against Ukraine will create a new opportunity for a revival of the relationship as part of a new wave of enlargement, which was not on the agenda previously.
The loss of reform momentum and rising authoritarianism during the most recent phase of AKP government indicate that Turkish democracy is in crisis. Although the Gezi protests emerged as a movement ...from below reacting to the rising authoritarianism of the AKP government, it did not turn into an organised and sustainable movement. Similarly, external anchors or reputational effects are failing to reverse the backsliding of Turkish democracy. The notion of 'bounded communities' is a key concept in accounting for the continued dominance of Erdoğan and the AKP in the face of significant pressure for change. Erdoğan's victory in the August 2014 presidential elections generates both benign and pessimistic scenarios for the future of Turkish democracy.
The current global political economy is characterised by the intensifying economic interaction of BRICS and 'near BRICS' economies, with emerging powers increasing their influence in neighbouring ...regions. The growing partnership between Turkey and Russia constitutes a useful case study for examining this transformation, in which Western supremacy and US hegemony are under increasing challenge. Turkish-Russian relations shed light on broader themes in global political economy. First, significant economic interdependence may be generated among states with different political outlooks, in the form of loose regional integration schemes driven by bilateral relations between key states and supporting private actors or interests. Second, growing economic interdependence may coexist with continued political conflict and geopolitical rivalry, as indicated by the Syrian and Ukrainian crises. An important strategy that emerges is the tendency to compartmentalise economic issues and geopolitical rivalries in order to avoid negative spill-over effects. This facilitates the coexistence of extensive competition with deepening cooperation, as reflected in relations in the field of energy.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, ODKLJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The conventional literature on the role of middle powers emphasises the importance of soft power, niche diplomacy and coalition building. This article explores a case of unusual middle power activism ...with a focus on recent Turkish foreign policy behaviour. It demonstrates how the interaction of domestic politics and external dynamics produced an unusual degree of foreign policy activism, going well beyond conventional middle power behaviour, with the government increasingly employing coercive diplomacy and militaristic methods. We demonstrate that unusual middle power activism in a shifting international order yielded 'populist dividends' to the ruling elite in the short run but led to a 'triple governance crisis' in the economy, politics and foreign policy, with each element feeding into the others in a path-dependent fashion.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, ODKLJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
This article sketches an analytical framework to account for new patterns of global governance. We characterize the emergent postliberal international order as a new age of hybridity, which signifies ...that no overriding set of paradigms dominate global governance. Instead, we have a complex web of competing norms, which creates new opportunities as well as major elements of instability, uncertainty, and anxiety. In the age of hybridity, non-Western great powers (led by China) play an increasingly counter-hegemonic role in shaping new style multilateralism—ontologically fragmented, normatively inconsistent, and institutionally incoherent. We argue that democracy paradox constitutes the fundamental issue at stake in this new age of hybridity. On the one hand, global power transitions seem to enable “democratization of globalization” by opening more space to the hitherto excluded non-Western states to make their voices heard. On the other hand, emerging pluralism in global governance is accompanied by the regression of liberal democracy and spread of illiberalism that enfeeble “globalization of democratization.”
The future of liberal democracy appears to be uncertain. This article develops a holistic approach to examine the prospects of liberal democracy by focusing on how three main regime types—that is, ...“established democratic regimes,” “hybrid regimes,” and “established authoritarian regimes”—interact with each other. We argue structural global political economy trends, which largely created the current authoritarian populist tide, remain strong despite signs of democratic renewal emerged with the recent new green Keynesian turn in established Western democracies, a more unified transatlantic response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and growing political-economic fragility of key hybrid regimes ruled by authoritarian populist leaders. Also, the resilience of various types of autocracies which co-exist and reinforce one another through economic linkages and political coalitions should not be underestimated, especially demonstrative effects of the Russia–China partnership. Both democratic and authoritarian forms of capitalism face serious problems of income and wealth inequality, raising challenges over “performance legitimacy” in both regime types. In this context, the performance and political-economic orientation of hybrid regimes will have a crucial bearing on the fortunes of liberal democracy on a global scale.
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