In this article we use a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model to analyse the possibilities of monetary and fiscal policy in achieving main economic policy goals, namely price stability and ...economic growth, in Croatia from 2004 to 2012. Our main results indicate that expansionary monetary and fiscal policies both have positive effects on economic activity. On the other hand, fiscal expansion leads to nominal exchange rate appreciation while monetary expansion has depreciation effects on nominal exchange rate. Thus the main conclusion of the article is that coordinated measures of monetary and fiscal policies could achieve both goals, i.e. that fiscal and monetary authorities can stimulate economic growth without endangering price stability.
In this paper we analyze different aspects of Croatian path to the monetary union and its current readiness to join the ERM 2 mechanism. Firstly, we present and discuss costs and benefits of euro ...adoption. Second, we use descriptive analysis to determine Croatia’s current position in relation to convergence criteria and discuss the possible timing of Croatian accession to the ERM 2. Thirdly, we analyze experiences of two NMS peers, Slovenia and Slovakia, before and after joining ERM 2 and highlight key lessons for Croatian policy makers. As Croatia is highly euroised (high FX risk) small and open economy, strongly integrated in EA trade and financial chains, with limited possibilities of monetary policy, the benefits of euro adoption would outweigh all commonly mentioned costs. Regarding convergence criteria, the biggest obstacle of Croatian access to ERM 2 mechanism is the level of public debt but recent developments and adjustments of SGP suggest that Croatia could satisfy the adjusted fiscal criteria already in several years. Experiences of Slovenia and Slovakia show that determined steps towards the euro (primarily ERM 2) can serve as an important policy credibility anchor and put a positive pressure on policy makers to preserve internal and external stability of the country and implement various structural reforms in order to achieve convergence with the euro zone members.
Croatia has joined the European Union as a country with several substantial
structural problems, of which the most important is weak competitiveness.
Although competitiveness can be viewed from the ...?institutional? perspective,
which includes World Development Indicators (WDI) and Doing Business reports,
in this paper the authors focus on the more standard view of competitiveness
based on unit labour costs (ULC) and real effective exchange rate (REER). As
a small, open and highly dollarized/euroised economy that has to coordinate
its economic policy with the EU policy framework, Croatia has limited space
for increasing international competitiveness using monetary policy measures
aimed at (nominal) devaluation of the national currency. Therefore economic
policy stakeholders should focus on decreasing unit labour costs and real
effective exchange rate mainly through the process of internal devaluation,
which is based on adequate fiscal policy measures. In this paper the authors
analyse the role of monetary and fiscal policy in the deteriorating real
effective exchange rate and unit labour costs since 2000, and their current
capabilities and restrictions in restoring international competitiveness. The
Structural VAR model (SVAR) is used to estimate the effects of foreign
(banking) capital, credit growth, and current public expenditure on REER and
ULC. The preliminary hypothesis of the paper is that monetary policy should
continue to support bank lending activities and the role of fiscal policy is
to achieve an internal devaluation, which will increase the competitiveness
of the Croatian economy. Restoring international competitiveness is necessary
due to its impact on net exports and consequently the economic recovery of
the national economy, which has faced recession conditions for five years in
a row. Also, restoring competitiveness is one of the most important
preconditions for the success of a small country joining the single European
market.
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In this paper, we use the structural VAR model to analyse the dynamic effects of (discretionary) fiscal shocks on the economic activity of the private sector in Croatia between 2000 and 2012. Due to ...the fact that Croatia is a small open transition economy, we assume that shocks of foreign origin can have notable effects on its performance. Therefore, the original Blanchard-Perotti identification method is extended by introducing variables that represent external (foreign) demand shocks. The results show that government spending has a positive and statistically significant effect on private aggregate demand and private consumption, and that net indirect taxes have a negative and statistically significant effect on private consumption and private investment.
Proučavanja kreditnog kanala monetarne transmisije dokazala su njegovo nejednako djelovanje u pojedinim sustavima. Niz je čimbenika koji potencijalno djeluju ograničavajuće na prohodnost kreditnog ...kanala; veličina, kapitaliziranost, likvidnost, vlasnička struktura, razvijenost financijskog sustava i dostupnost ne bankovnog financiranja. Djelovanje kreditnog kanala u Republici Hrvatskoj analizirano je na podacima skupine malih domaćih banaka i dvije velike banke u stranom vlasništvu. Veličina banaka ograničavajući je čimbenik djelovanja kreditnog kanala u Republici Hrvatskoj. Drugi potencijalni ograničavajući čimbenik djelovanja kreditnog kanala je vlasnička struktura poslovnih banaka, no njeno djelovanje u radu nije podrobnije analizirano.
Mjerenje nezavisnosti središnje banke Ćorić, Tomislav; Cvrlje, Dajana
Zbornik Ekonomskog fakulteta u Zagrebu,
06/2010, Letnik:
8, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Odprti dostop
Trend rastuće nezavisnosti središnje banke prisutan je u većini modernih ekonomija tijekom posljednjih dvadeset godina. Smatra se da je nezavisna centralna banka vjerodostojnija, što joj omogućava ...lakše donošenje odluka i vođenje monetarne politike. Unatoč proklamiranoj nezavisnosti većine banaka, njihova stvarna nezavisnost je manja budući da države obično imaju određeni utjecaj na djelovanje središnjih banaka. Empirijska istraživanja o odnosu između nezavisnosti središnje banke i ekonomskih varijabli sugeriraju negativan odnos na relaciji nezavisnosti središnje banke - inflacija. Čvrsti dokazi o utjecaju nezavisnosti središnje banke na ostale makroekonomske varijable do sada nisu pronađeni. Analiza nezavisnosti Hrvatske narodne banke u ovom radu provedena je korištenjem 4 različite metode; 1) procjenom temeljenom na stopi izmjene guvernera središnje banke (TOR), 2) kriterijem Petursson G. Thorarinna, te dvama mjerama zakonske nezavisnosti središnje banke, indeksima 3) LVAW i 4) QVAW. Rezultati istraživanja potvrđuju visok stupanj nezavisnosti središnje banke u Hrvatskoj.
U ovom radu autori analiziraju različite aspekte pristupanja Hrvatske europodručju i ocjenjuju trenutačnu spremnost Hrvatske za ulazak u tečajni mehanizam ERM 2. Prvo, u radu se sažeto prikazuju ...potencijalni troškovi i koristi od uvođenja eura kao nacionalne valute. Drugo, koristeći metodu deskriptivne statistike, autori utvrđuju trenutačnu poziciju Hrvatske u odnosu na konvergencijske kriterije te određuju potencijalni (realističan) trenutak ulaska u tečajni mehanizam ERM 2. Treće, autori analiziraju iskustva usporedivih zemalja članica Nove Europe, Slovenije i Slovačke, prije i nakon ulaska u ERM 2 te ističu ključne pouke za nositelje politike u Hrvatskoj. Budući da je Hrvatska visoko euroizirana, mala, otvorena ekonomija, snažno integrirana u trgovinske i financijske tokove europodručja te da već ima ograničen suverenitet monetarne politike, u radu se zaključuje kako potencijalne prednosti uvođenja eura nadmašuju sve potencijalne troškove. Što se tiče konvergencijskih kriterija, najveća prepreka ulasku u ERM 2 predstavlja visoka razina javnog duga, ali nedavne izmjene Pakta o stabilnosti i rastu te uvođenje novog kriterija duga omogućavaju Hrvatskoj da zadovolji i novi kriterij duga u sljedećih nekoliko godina. Iskustva Slovenije i Slovačke pokazuju da odlučan put prema euru (prvenstveno boravak u ERM 2) može poslužiti kao važno sidro kredibiliteta ekonomske politike i potaknuti nositelje politike da očuvaju internu i eksternu stabilnost zemlje te implementiraju različite strukturne reforme kako bi ostvarili što veći stupanj konvergencije prema zemljama euro područja.
Since the introduction of the Stabilization program in 1993, the Croatian National Bank has been following a monetary strategy of exchange rate anchor. During the first period from from 1993 to 1997 ...this monetary strategy achieved acceptable results. However, the macroeconomic situation changed in the last decade. The indicators of Croatian economy have not been satisfactory. As a result, the current monetary strategy is in the focus of various economists' discussions. One of the alternatives to the exchange rate anchor is inflation targeting -- nominal anchor introduced by monetary policy authorities at the end of 20th century. Although the performance of the current monetary regime in the Republic of Croatia is not satisfactory, the change of nominal anchor and implementation of inflation targeting is not an option. The analysis of the current monetary policy outlook brings to conclusion that CNB doesn't react proactively to movements that happen in the monetary sector.
Tečajni mehanizam ERM 2 može se smatrati posljednjom fazom operacionalizacije teorijskog koncepta optimalnog valutnog područja. Uspješan boravak u mehanizmu i mogućnost ulaska u Eurozonu usko su ...povezani s ispunjenjem nominalnih i realnih kriterija konvergencije. Boravak Estonije u tečajnom mehanizmu ERM 2 obilježen je relativno niskim kamatnim stopama, fiskalnom stabilnošću i stabilnošću deviznog tečaja, ali i relativno visokom inflacijom. Analiza ekonomskih pokazatelja ukazuje na realnu konvergenciju zemlje tijekom boravka u ERM 2, slično drugim zemljama pristupnicama. Međutim, usporedo s rastom BDP-a javlja se problem snažnog rasta vanjskog duga.
Exchange rate mechanism 2 (ERM 2) may be considered as the final stage in the implementation of optimal currency area theory. Successful participation in ERM 2 and the possibility to become a Euro ...zone member are closely connected to fulfilment of nominal and real convergence criteria. ERM 2 phase in Estonia is characterized by low interest rates, fiscal and exchange rate stability, but relatively high inflation. The analysis of economic indicators shows real convergence while participating in the ERM 2, which is similar to other participant countries. However, country's economic growth is followed by intensive growth of external debt. PUBLICATION ABSTRACT
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