Over the 21st century, changes in CO2 levels, climate and land use are expected to alter the global distribution of vegetation, leading to changes in trace gas emissions from plants, including, ...importantly, the emissions of isoprene. This, combined with changes in anthropogenic emissions, has the potential to impact tropospheric ozone levels, which above a certain level are harmful to animals and vegetation. In this study we use a biogenic emissions model following the empirical parameterisation of the MEGAN model, with vegetation distributions calculated by the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SDGVM) to explore a range of potential future (2095) changes in isoprene emissions caused by changes in climate (including natural land use changes), land use, and the inhibition of isoprene emissions by CO2. From the present-day (2000) value of 467 Tg C yr−1, we find that the combined impact of these factors could cause a net decrease in isoprene emissions of 259 Tg C yr−1 (55%) with individual contributions of +78 Tg C yr−1 (climate change), −190 Tg C yr−1 (land use) and −147 Tg C yr−1 (CO2 inhibition). Using these isoprene emissions and changes in anthropogenic emissions, a series of integrations is conducted with the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model with the aim of examining changes in ozone over the 21st century. Globally, all combined future changes cause a decrease in the tropospheric ozone burden of 27 Tg (7%) from 379 Tg in the present-day. At the surface, decreases in ozone of 6–10 ppb are calculated over the oceans and developed northern hemispheric regions, due to reduced NOx transport by PAN and reductions in NOx emissions in these areas respectively. Increases of 4–6 ppb are calculated in the continental tropics due to cropland expansion in these regions, increased CO2 inhibition of isoprene emissions, and higher temperatures due to climate change. These effects outweigh the decreases in tropical ozone caused by increased tropical isoprene emissions with climate change. Our land use change scenario consists of cropland expansion, which is most pronounced in the tropics. The tropics are also where land use change causes the greatest increases in ozone. As such there is potential for increased crop exposure to harmful levels of ozone. However, we find that these ozone increases are still not large enough to raise ozone to such damaging levels.
Lightning is one of the major natural sources of NOx in the atmosphere. A suite of time slice experiments using a stratosphere-resolving configuration of the Unified Model (UM), containing the United ...Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols sub-model (UKCA), has been performed to investigate the impact of climate change on emissions of NOx from lightning (LNOx ) and to highlight its critical impacts on photochemical ozone production and the oxidising capacity of the troposphere. Two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are explored. LNOx is simulated to increase in a year-2100 climate by 33% (RCP4.5) and 78% (RCP8.5), primarily as a result of increases in the depth of convection. The total tropospheric chemical odd oxygen production (P(Ox )) increases linearly with increases in total LNOx and consequently, tropospheric ozone burdens of 29 ± 4 Tg(O3 ) (RCP4.5) and 46 ± 4 Tg(O3 ) (RCP8.5) are calculated here. By prescribing a uniform surface boundary concentration for methane in these simulations, methane-driven feedbacks are essentially neglected. A simple estimate of the contribution of the feedback reduces the increase in ozone burden to 24 and 33 Tg(O3 ), respectively. We thus show that, through changes in LNOx , the effects of climate change counteract the simulated mitigation of the ozone burden, which results from reductions in ozone precursor emissions as part of air quality controls projected in the RCP scenarios. Without the driver of increased LNOx , our simulations suggest that the net effect of climate change would be to lower free tropospheric ozone. In addition, we identify large climate-change-induced enhancements in the concentration of the hydroxyl radical (OH) in the tropical upper troposphere (UT), particularly over the Maritime Continent, primarily as a consequence of greater LNOx . The OH enhancement in the tropics increases oxidation of both methane (with feedbacks onto chemistry and climate) and very short-lived substances (VSLS) (with implications for stratospheric ozone depletion). We emphasise that it is important to improve our understanding of LNOx in order to gain confidence in model projections of composition change under future climate.
Background Previous work has shown differential predominance of certain Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tb) lineages and sub-lineages among different human populations in diverse geographic regions of ...Ethiopia. Nevertheless, how strain diversity is evolving under the ongoing rapid socio-economic and environmental changes is poorly understood. The present study investigated factors associated with M. tb lineage predominance and rate of strain clustering within urban and peri-urban settings in Ethiopia. Methods Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) and Cervical tuberculous lymphadenitis (TBLN) patients who visited selected health facilities were recruited in the years of 2016 and 2017. A total of 258 M. tb isolates identified from 163 sputa and 95 fine-needle aspirates (FNA) were characterized by spoligotyping and compared with international M.tb spoligotyping patterns registered at the SITVIT2 databases. The molecular data were linked with clinical and demographic data of the patients for further statistical analysis. Results From a total of 258 M. tb isolates, 84 distinct spoligotype patterns that included 58 known Shared International Type (SIT) patterns and 26 new or orphan patterns were identified. The majority of strains belonged to two major M. tb lineages, L3 (35.7%) and L4 (61.6%). The observed high percentage of isolates with shared patterns (n = 200/258) suggested a substantial rate of overall clustering (77.5%). After adjusting for the effect of geographical variations, clustering rate was significantly lower among individuals co-infected with HIV and other concomitant chronic disease. Compared to L4, the adjusted odds ratio and 95% confidence interval (AOR; 95% CI) indicated that infections with L3 M. tb strains were more likely to be associated with TBLN 3.47 (1.45, 8.29) and TB-HIV co-infection 2.84 (1.61, 5.55). Conclusion Despite the observed difference in strain diversity and geographical distribution of M. tb lineages, compared to earlier studies in Ethiopia, the overall rate of strain clustering suggests higher transmission and warrant more detailed investigations into the molecular epidemiology of TB and related factors.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The association of body size, lifestyle, and medical conditions with renal cell cancer risk was examined among 161,126 Hawaii–Los Angeles Multiethnic Cohort participants (1993–2002). After 8.3 years ...of follow-up, 347 renal cell cancer cases (220 men, 127 women) were identified. Renal cell cancer risk increased with increasing body mass index in men (multivariate relative risk (RR) = 1.06 per unit of body mass index, p = 0.001) and women (RR = 1.07, p < 0.0001). The relative risks associated with being obese compared with being lean were 1.76 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.20, 2.58) for men and 2.27 (95% CI: 1.37, 3.74) for women. Hypertension was associated with renal cell cancer (RRmen = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.87; RRwomen = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.09, 2.28). Smoking was confirmed to be a risk factor for both sexes. Among women, diuretic use was associated with increased risk (RR = 1.63, 95% CI: 1.04, 2.57), whereas physical activity was associated with reduced risk (ptrend = 0.027). Alcohol consumption was inversely associated with risk for men (ptrend = 0.045). Compared with nondrinkers, men who drank ≥1 drinks/day had a 31% lower risk (95% CI: 0.49, 0.96). Results show that body mass index, smoking, and hypertension are risk factors for renal cell cancer in both sexes.
We report results from two pairs of chemistry-climate model simulations using the same climate model but different chemical perturbations. In each pair of experiments an ozone change was triggered by ...a simple change in the chemistry. One pair of model experiments looked at the impact of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) and the other pair at the impact of short-lived halogenated species on composition and circulation. The model response is complex with both positive and negative changes in ozone concentration, depending on location. These changes result from coupling between composition, temperature and circulation. Even though the causes of the modelled ozone changes are different, the high latitude Southern Hemisphere response in the lower stratosphere is similar. In both pairs of experiments the high-latitude circulation changes, as evidenced by N2O differences, are suggesting a slightly longer-lasting/stronger stratospheric descent in runs with higher ozone destruction (a manifestation of a seasonal shift in the circulation). We contrast the idealised model behaviour with interannual variability in ozone and N2O as observed by the MIPAS instrument on ENVISAT, highlighting similarities of the modelled climate equilibrium changes to the year 2006–2007 in observations. We conclude that the climate system can respond quite sensitively in its seasonal evolution to small chemical perturbations, that circulation adjustments seen in the model can occur in reality, and that coupled chemistry-climate models allow a better assessment of future ozone and climate change than recent CMIP-type models with prescribed ozone fields.
ABSTRACT The IceCube Neutrino Observatory accumulated a total of 318 billion cosmic-ray-induced muon events between 2009 May and 2015 May. This data set was used for a detailed analysis of the ...sidereal anisotropy in the arrival directions of cosmic rays in the TeV to PeV energy range. The observed global sidereal anisotropy features large regions of relative excess and deficit, with amplitudes of the order of 10−3 up to about 100 TeV. A decomposition of the arrival direction distribution into spherical harmonics shows that most of the power is contained in the low-multipole ( ≤ 4) moments. However, higher multipole components are found to be statistically significant down to an angular scale of less than 10°, approaching the angular resolution of the detector. Above 100 TeV, a change in the morphology of the arrival direction distribution is observed, and the anisotropy is characterized by a wide relative deficit whose amplitude increases with primary energy up to at least 5 PeV, the highest energies currently accessible to IceCube. No time dependence of the large- and small-scale structures is observed in the period of six years covered by this analysis. The high-statistics data set reveals more details of the properties of the anisotropy and is potentially able to shed light on the various physical processes that are responsible for the complex angular structure and energy evolution.
Understanding the past, present, and future evolution of methane remains a grand challenge. Here we have used a hierarchy of models, ranging from simple box models to a chemistry‐climate model (CCM), ...UM‐UKCA, to assess the contemporary and possible future atmospheric methane burden. We assess two emission data sets for the year 2000 deployed in UM‐UKCA against key observational constraints. We explore the impact of the treatment of model boundary conditions for methane and show that, depending on other factors, such as CO emissions, satisfactory agreement may be obtained with either of the CH4 emission data sets, highlighting the difficulty in unambiguous choice of model emissions in a coupled chemistry model with strong feedbacks. The feedbacks in the CH4‐CO‐OH system, and their uncertainties, play a critical role in the projection of possible futures. In a future driven by large increases in greenhouse gas forcing, increases in tropospheric temperature drive, an increase in water vapor, and, hence, OH. In the absence of methane emission changes this leads to a significant decrease in methane compared to the year 2000. However, adding a projected increase in methane emissions from the RCP8.5 scenario leads to a large increase in methane abundance. This is modified by changes to CO and NOx emissions. Clearly, future levels of methane are uncertain and depend critically on climate change and on the future emission pathways of methane and ozone precursors. We highlight that further work is needed to understand the coupled CH4‐CO‐OH system in order to understand better future methane evolution.
Plain Language Summary
Methane is an important greenhouse gas and needs to be modeled accurately to understand climate change. We use a combination of modeling approaches to investigate how we could model methane in present day conditions and in the future. We used a simple box model to explore how methane behaves in the atmosphere and interacts with other important species such as OH and CO. We then used a more complex 3‐D model of the whole atmosphere employing a more physically realistic way to treat methane emissions in our model than is normally done. We show that the choice of emissions data set is difficult but that good agreement with observations is possible. The simple model shows how some of the difficulty arises: The different components of the system interact nonlinearly. We go on to use this 3‐D modeling approach to study methane levels in future climate. We show that not only methane emissions but also other factors are important to methane levels, again agreeing with the broad conclusions of our simple model. Methane in the future is highly uncertain and depends on climate, emissions, and the interactions between them, mediated by key chemical species, CO, methane, and OH.
Key Points
We study methane in present and future climate in a model employing flux‐based treatment of methane emissions
We examine the source and importance of feedbacks in the CH4‐CO‐OH system using a 0‐D box model and a 3‐D chemistry‐climate model
We examine methane levels in future climate and the role played by climate and emissions changes
The need for successful management of posterior urethral valves always captivates the minds of pediatric surgeons. Its success, however, depends on several factors ranging from prenatal preservation ...of upper tracts to postoperative pharmacological compliance. Regardless of measures available, some cases do not respond and progress to end stage. The management depends on several issues ranging from age and severity at presentation to long-term follow-up and prevention of secondary renal damage and managing valve bladder syndrome. This article is based on a consensus to the set of questionnaires, prepared by research section of Indian Association of Paediatric Surgeons and discussed by experienced pediatric surgeons based in different institutions in the country. Standard operating procedures for conducting a voiding cystourethrogram and cystoscopy were formulated. Age-wise contrast dosage was calculated for ready reference. Current evidence from literature was also reviewed and included to complete the topic.
An important source of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), which play a crucial role in controlling polar stratospheric ozone depletion, is from the temperature fluctuations induced by mountain waves. ...However, this formation mechanism is usually missing in chemistry–climate models because these temperature fluctuations are neither resolved nor parameterised. Here, we investigate the representation of stratospheric mountain-wave-induced temperature fluctuations by the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM) at climate scale and mesoscale against Atmospheric Infrared Sounder satellite observations for three case studies over the Antarctic Peninsula. At a high horizontal resolution (4 km) the regional mesoscale configuration of the UM correctly simulates the magnitude, timing, and location of the measured temperature fluctuations. By comparison, at a low horizontal resolution (2.5° × 3.75°) the global climate configuration fails to resolve such disturbances. However, it is demonstrated that the temperature fluctuations computed by a mountain wave parameterisation scheme inserted into the climate configuration (which computes the temperature fluctuations due to unresolved mountain waves) are in relatively good agreement with the mesoscale configuration responses for two of the three case studies. The parameterisation was used to include the simulation of mountain-wave-induced PSCs in the global chemistry–climate configuration of the UM. A subsequent sensitivity study demonstrated that regional PSCs increased by up to 50% during July over the Antarctic Peninsula following the inclusion of the local mountain-wave-induced cooling phase.
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