Recent extreme wildfire seasons in the United States (US) have rekindled policy debates about the underlying drivers and potential role forest management can play in reducing fuels and future ...wildfire. Most US western national forests face a substantial backlog of treatments and manifold management issues related to wildfire, forest health, and wildfire protection and constitute the major part of the wildfire problem. However, the precise schedule and detailed assessments that map the type and amount of treatments needed, as well as the associated cost are rarely assessed. We simulated restoration trajectories on the US fire prone Umatilla National Forest that faces complex management challenges related to wildfire and forest resiliency. The treatments were targeted to specific ecological conditions based on a decision tree developed in consultation with specialists. Planning areas were then prioritized based on fire protection of the wildland-urban interface (WUI), forest products, and stand resiliency. The results revealed a backlog of 211,893 ha, that when treated would generate $320 million in revenue from forest products, and cover 80% of the forest. The treatment area estimate was more than double prior estimates based on ecological departure from historic condition. Financial sensitivity analysis showed that high priority fuel treatments were revenue positive on 22% of the planning areas. The study established a restoration blueprint in terms of amount, location, and treatment type to support funding requests to the agency and schedule internal and external capacity to complete the work. The work also contributes to ongoing collaborative restoration planning to help stakeholders understand the opportunity cost of specific restoration objectives. The case study and framework can be widely extrapolated to the national forests in the western US to improve financial evaluation of forest and fuel management and estimate future management inputs. This work represents a rare instance of a bottom-up spatially explicit assessment of a restoration backlog, and prioritization of planning areas to reduce that backlog on a US national forest.
•Estimates of forest restoration needs are a key input into US federal forest policy.•Heretofore, restoration needs have been based on fire regime and ecological departure.•We used an alternative approach based on silvicultural treatment decision trees.•The approach doubled the estimated treatment needs compared to ecological assessment.•Revenue from harvesting was insufficient to pay for needed surface fuels treatment.
We characterized wildfire transmission and exposure within a matrix of large land tenures (federal, state, and private) surrounding 56 communities within a 3.3 million ha fire prone region of central ...Oregon US. Wildfire simulation and network analysis were used to quantify the exchange of fire among land tenures and communities and analyze the relative contributions of human versus natural ignitions to wildfire exposure. Among the land tenures examined, the area burned by incoming fires averaged 57% of the total burned area. Community exposure from incoming fires ignited on surrounding land tenures accounted for 67% of the total area burned. The number of land tenures contributing wildfire to individual communities and surrounding wildland urban interface (WUI) varied from 3 to 20. Community firesheds, i.e. the area where ignitions can spawn fires that can burn into the WUI, covered 40% of the landscape, and were 5.5 times larger than the combined area of the community core and WUI. For the major land tenures within the study area, the amount of incoming versus outgoing fire was relatively constant, with some exceptions. The study provides a multi-scale characterization of wildfire networks within a large, mixed tenure and fire prone landscape, and illustrates the connectivity of risk between communities and the surrounding wildlands. We use the findings to discuss how scale mismatches in local wildfire governance result from disconnected planning systems and disparate fire management objectives among the large landowners (federal, state, private) and local communities. Local and regional risk planning processes can adopt our concepts and methods to better define and map the scale of wildfire risk from large fire events and incorporate wildfire network and connectivity concepts into risk assessments.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Active forest restoration programs on western US national forests face multiple challenges to meet their broad ecological goals while designing projects that generate sufficient revenue to build and ...maintain private forest management capacity needed to expand the scale and scope of treatments. We explored ways to design projects where admixing of treatments along gradients of dry and moist mixed conifer forest types could maximize financial viability while including substantial area where broadcast burning could be applied in conjunction with other treatments. In general, we found that restoration treatments in dry forests that included density reduction thinning and broadcast burning resulted in a net projected cost ranging from $110 to $8000 per ha. By contrast, density reduction thinning in moist mixed conifer forests on more productive microsites generated significant commercial timber volume and projected revenue that ranged from $4000 to $20,000 per ha. We used spatial optimization methods to identify potential project areas that maximized revenue while meeting constraints to treat a minimum proportion of each project with broadcast burning. Multiple project area sizes were also explored to understand the effect of restoration scale on financial outcomes. We found that optimal projects in terms of generating revenue to subsidize density reduction and broadcast burning were 810 ha and contained >50% dry forest area. Larger projects and those with a higher percentage of dry forest area resulted in lower revenue, eliminating revenue when projects reached 2700 ha. Forest restoration programs can use these methods to plan and design restoration projects that are financially viable while addressing the broadcast burn backlog in dry forests that require relatively expensive fuel reduction treatments prior to re-introducing fire.
Methods and models to design, prioritize and evaluate fuel break networks have potential application in many fire-prone ecosystems where major increases in fuel management investments are planned in ...response to growing incidence of wildfires. A key question facing managers is how to scale treatments into manageable project areas that meet operational and administrative constraints, and then prioritize their implementation over time to maximize fire management outcomes. We developed and tested a spatial modeling system to optimize the implementation of a proposed 3,538 km fuel break network and explore tradeoffs between two implementation strategies on a 0.5 million ha national forest in the western US. We segmented the network into 2,766 treatment units and used a spatial optimization model to compare linear versus radial project implementation geometries. We hypothesized that linear projects were more efficient at intercepting individual fire events over larger spatial domains, whereas radial projects conferred a higher level of network redundancy in terms of the length of the fuel break exposed to fires. We simulated implementation of the alternative project geometries and then examined fuel break-wildfire spatial interactions using a library of simulated fires developed in prior work. The results supported the hypothesis, with linear projects exhibiting substantially greater efficiency in terms of intercepting fires over larger areas, whereas radial projects had a higher interception length given a fire encountered a project. Adding economic objectives made it more difficult to obtain alternative project geometries, but substantially increased net revenue from harvested trees. We discuss how the model and results can be used to further understand decision tradeoffs and optimize the implementation of planned fuel break networks in conjunction with landscape conservation, protection, and restoration management in fire prone regions.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
We used spatial optimization to allocate and prioritize prescribed fire treatments in the fire-prone Bages County, central Catalonia (northeastern Spain). The goal of this study was to identify ...suitable strategic locations on forest lands for fuel treatments in order to: 1) disrupt major fire movements, 2) reduce ember emissions, and 3) reduce the likelihood of large fires burning into residential communities. We first modeled fire spread, hazard and exposure metrics under historical extreme fire weather conditions, including node influence grid for surface fire pathways, crown fraction burned and fire transmission to residential structures. Then, we performed an optimization analysis on individual planning areas to identify production possibility frontiers for addressing fire exposure and explore alternative prescribed fire treatment configurations. The results revealed strong trade-offs among different fire exposure metrics, showed treatment mosaics that optimize the allocation of prescribed fire, and identified specific opportunities to achieve multiple objectives. Our methods can contribute to improving the efficiency of prescribed fire treatment investments and wildfire management programs aimed at creating fire resilient ecosystems, facilitating safe and efficient fire suppression, and safeguarding rural communities from catastrophic wildfires. The analysis framework can be used to optimally allocate prescribed fire in other fire-prone areas within the Mediterranean region and elsewhere.
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•Prescribed fire treatment optimization for reducing wildfire risk is challenging.•We designed a multi-objective treatment mosaic for a fire-prone Mediterranean area.•We used an optimization program to explore trade-offs among competing objectives.•Results can be used to evaluate ongoing projects and improve long-term efficiency.•Spatial optimization can guide investments on large landscape management projects.
A solution to the growing problem of catastrophic wildfires in Greece will require a more holistic fuel management strategy that focuses more broadly on landscape fire behavior and risk in relation ...to suppression tactics and ignition prevention. Current fire protection planning is either non-existent or narrowly focused on reducing fuels in proximity to roads and communities where ignitions are most likely. A more effective strategy would expand the treatment footprint to landscape scales to reduce fire intensity and increase the likelihood of safe and efficient suppression activities. However, expanding fuels treatment programs on Greek landscapes that are highly fragmented in terms of land use and vegetation requires: (1) a better understanding of how diverse land cover types contribute to fire spread and intensity; and (2) case studies, both simulated and empirical, that demonstrate how landscape fuel management strategies can achieve desired outcomes in terms of fire behavior. In this study, we used Lesvos Island, Greece as a study area to characterize how different land cover types and land uses contribute to fire exposure and used wildfire simulation methods to understand how fire spreads among parcels of forests, developed areas, and other land cover types (shrublands, agricultural areas, and grasslands) as a way to identify fire source–sink relationships. We then simulated a spatially coordinated fuel management program that targeted the fire prone conifer forests that generally burn under the highest intensity. The treatment effects were measured in terms of post-treatment fire behavior and transmission. The results demonstrated an optimized method for fuel management planning that accounts for the connectivity of wildfire among different land types. The results also identified the scale of risk and the limitations of relying on small scattered fuel treatment units to manage long-term wildfire risk.
Multiple plant stresses can affect the health, esthetic condition, and timber harvest value of conifer forests. To monitor spatial and temporal dynamic forest stress conditions, timely, accurate, and ...cost-effective information is needed that could be provided by remote sensing. Recently, satellite imagery has become available via the RapidEye satellite constellation to provide spectral information in five broad bands, including the red-edge region (690–730
nm) of the electromagnetic spectrum. We tested the hypothesis that broadband, red-edge satellite information improves early detection of stress (as manifest by shifts in foliar chlorophyll a
+
b) in a woodland ecosystem relative to other more commonly utilized band combinations of red, green, blue, and near infrared band reflectance spectra. We analyzed a temporally dense time series of 22 RapidEye scenes of a piñon-juniper woodland in central New Mexico acquired before and after stress was induced by girdling. We found that the Normalized Difference Red-Edge index (NDRE) allowed stress to be detected 13
days after girdling — between and 16
days earlier than broadband spectral indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Green NDVI traditionally used for satellite based forest health monitoring. We conclude that red-edge information has the potential to considerably improve forest stress monitoring from satellites and warrants further investigation in other forested ecosystems.
► Multiple plant stresses can affect the health of forests. ► The utility of red-edge satellite data for detecting tree stress was examined. ► A red-edge employing index detected stress 13
days after it was induced. ► Traditional red and green employing indices detected stress 12 to 16
days later. ► Red-edge satellite data may improve forest health monitoring from space.
Widespread outbreaks of mountain pine beetle in North America have drawn the attention of scientists, forest managers, and the public. There is strong evidence that climate change has contributed to ...the extent and severity of recent outbreaks. Scientists are interested in quantifying relationships between bark beetle population dynamics and trends in climate. Process models that simulate climate suitability for mountain pine beetle outbreaks have advanced our understanding of beetle population dynamics; however, there are few studies that have assessed their accuracy across multiple outbreaks or at larger spatial scales. This study used the observed number of trees killed by mountain pine beetles per square kilometer in Oregon and Washington, USA, over the past three decades to quantify and assess the influence of climate and weather variables on beetle activity over longer time periods and larger scales than previously studied. Influences of temperature and precipitation in addition to process model output variables were assessed at annual and climatological time scales. The statistical analysis showed that new attacks are more likely to occur at locations with climatological mean August temperatures >15°C. After controlling for beetle pressure, the variables with the largest effect on the odds of an outbreak exceeding a certain size were minimum winter temperature (positive relationship) and drought conditions in current and previous years. Precipitation levels in the year prior to the outbreak had a positive effect, possibly an indication of the influence of this driver on brood size. Two-year cumulative precipitation had a negative effect, a possible indication of the influence of drought on tree stress. Among the process model variables, cold tolerance was the strongest indicator of an outbreak increasing to epidemic size. A weather suitability index developed from the regression analysis indicated a 2.5× increase in the odds of outbreak at locations with highly suitable weather vs. locations with low suitability. The models were useful for estimating expected amounts of damage (total area with outbreaks) and for quantifying the contribution of climate to total damage. Overall, the results confirm the importance of climate and weather on the spatial expansion of bark beetle outbreaks over time.
We examined the financial efficiency and effectiveness of landscape versus community protection fuel treatments to reduce structure exposure and loss to wildfire on a large fire-prone area of central ...Idaho (USA). The study area contained 63,707 structures distributed in 20 rural communities and resorts, encompassing 13,804 km2. We used simulation modeling to estimate expected structure loss based on burn probability and characteristics of the home ignition zone. We then designed three fuel management strategies that targeted treatments to: 1) the surrounding areas predicted to be the source of exposure to communities from large fires, 2) the home ignition zone, and 3) a combination of the landscape and home ignition zone. We evaluated each treatment scenario in terms of exposure and expected structure loss compared to a no-treatment scenario. The potential revenue from wood products was estimated for each scenario to assess the cost-efficiency. We found that the combined landscape and home ignition zone treatment scenario which treated 5.7% of the study area resulted in the highest overall reduction in predicted exposure (47.5%, 100 structures yr−1) and predicted loss (69.1%, 57 structures yr−1). Home ignition zone treatments provided the best predicted economic and per area treated performance where exposure and loss were reduced by one structure by treating 89 and 111 ha per year, respectively, with an annual cost of $33,645 and $73,672. Revenue from thinning was the highest for landscape fuel treatments and covered 16% of the required investment. This work highlighted economic and risk tradeoffs associated with alternative fuel treatment strategies to protect developed areas from large wildland fires.
•Home ignition zone treatments are considered most effective.•By contrast, forest landscape treatments can generate revenue.•Combining the strategies was predicted to have the highest exposure reduction.•Interactions between drivers of fire and structure loss created scale tradeoffs.•Local and multiscale treatment strategies are needed to address WUI fire risk.
We used spatial optimization to analyze alternative restoration scenarios and quantify tradeoffs for a large, multifaceted restoration program to restore resiliency to forest landscapes in the ...western US. We specifically examined tradeoffs between provisional ecosystem services, fire protection, and the amelioration of key ecological stressors. The results revealed that attainment of multiple restoration objectives was constrained due to the joint spatial patterns of ecological conditions and socioeconomic values. We also found that current restoration projects are substantially suboptimal, perhaps the result of compromises in the collaborative planning process used by federal planners, or operational constraints on forest management activities. The juxtaposition of ecological settings with human values generated sharp tradeoffs, especially with respect to community wildfire protection versus generating revenue to support restoration and fire protection activities. The analysis and methods can be leveraged by ongoing restoration programs in many ways including: 1) integrated prioritization of restoration activities at multiple scales on public and adjoining private lands, 2) identification and mapping of conflicts between ecological restoration and socioeconomic objectives, 3) measuring the efficiency of ongoing restoration projects compared to the optimal production possibility frontier, 4) consideration of fire transmission among public and private land parcels as a prioritization metric, and 5) finding socially optimal regions along the production frontier as part of collaborative restoration planning.
•We analyzed production possibility frontiers and tradeoffs for forest restoration.•We considered ecosystem services, wildfire protection, and mitigation of stressors.•Sharp tradeoffs were observed among the different restoration goals.•Ongoing restoration projects were suboptimal compared to the production frontier.•The results reveal conflicts between restoration policy and socioeconomic values.
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