This JAMA Guide to Statistics and Methods summarizes latent class analysis, a statistical technique that estimates the probability of patients belonging to a discrete group that shares specific ...combinations of observed variables, and explains how the technique is used and can be interpreted in observational research.
Multimorbidity-having two or more coexisting chronic conditions-is highly prevalent, costly, and disabling to older adults. Questions remain regarding chronic diseases accumulation over time and ...whether this differs by racial and ethnic background. Answering this knowledge gap, this study identifies differences in rates of chronic disease accumulation and multimorbidity development among non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Hispanic study participants starting in middle-age and followed up to 16 years.
We analyzed data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a biennial, ongoing, publicly-available, longitudinal nationally-representative study of middle-aged and older adults in the United States. We assessed the change in chronic disease burden among 8,872 non-Hispanic black, non-Hispanic white, and Hispanic participants who were 51-55 years of age at their first interview any time during the study period (1998-2014) and all subsequent follow-up observations until 2014. Multimorbidity was defined as having two or more of seven somatic chronic diseases: arthritis, cancer, heart disease (myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, angina, congestive heart failure, or other heart problems), diabetes, hypertension, lung disease, and stroke. We used negative binomial generalized estimating equation models to assess the trajectories of multimorbidity burden over time for non-Hispanic black, non-Hispanic white, and Hispanic participants. In covariate-adjusted models non-Hispanic black respondents had initial chronic disease counts that were 28% higher than non-Hispanic white respondents (IRR 1.279, 95% CI 1.201, 1.361), while Hispanic respondents had initial chronic disease counts that were 15% lower than non-Hispanic white respondents (IRR 0.852, 95% CI 0.775, 0.938). Non-Hispanic black respondents had rates of chronic disease accumulation that were 1.1% slower than non-Hispanic whites (IRR 0.989, 95% CI 0.981, 0.998) and Hispanic respondents had rates of chronic disease accumulation that were 1.5% faster than non-Hispanic white respondents (IRR 1.015, 95% CI 1.002, 1.028). Using marginal effects commands, this translates to predicted values of chronic disease for white respondents who begin the study period with 0.98 chronic diseases and end with 2.8 chronic diseases; black respondents who begin the study period with 1.3 chronic diseases and end with 3.3 chronic diseases; and Hispanic respondents who begin the study period with 0.84 chronic diseases and end with 2.7 chronic diseases.
Middle-aged non-Hispanic black adults start at a higher level of chronic disease burden and develop multimorbidity at an earlier age, on average, than their non-Hispanic white counterparts. Hispanics, on the other hand, accumulate chronic disease at a faster rate relative to non-Hispanic white adults. Our findings have important implications for improving primary and secondary chronic disease prevention efforts among non-Hispanic black and Hispanic Americans to stave off greater multimorbidity-related health impacts.
Celotno besedilo
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Trajectories of Disability in the Last Year of Life Gill, Thomas M; Gahbauer, Evelyne A; Han, Ling ...
New England journal of medicine/The New England journal of medicine,
04/2010, Letnik:
362, Številka:
13
Journal Article
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This longitudinal study involving older adults identified five trajectories during the last year of life: no disability, catastrophic disability, accelerated disability, progressive disability, and ...persistently severe disability. Most of the subjects who died suddenly had no disability, and most of those who died from advanced dementia had persistently severe disability; however, the course of disability was not predictable for the majority of the subjects, who died from other causes.
This longitudinal study involving older adults identified five trajectories during the last year of life: no disability, catastrophic disability, accelerated disability, progressive disability, and persistently severe disability. The course of disability was not predictable for the majority of the subjects.
According to the hypothesis of a compression of morbidity, if the onset of disability could be postponed, then lifetime disability could be compressed into a shorter average period before death.
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Supporting this hypothesis, data from several large national surveys have shown a decline in disability rates that exceeds the observed decline in mortality.
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Although informative at the population level, these results may not be directly relevant to individual patients, their families, or their physicians, who may be more interested in knowing the likelihood and course of disability at the end of life. Previous research has shown that the majority . . .
CONTEXT Disability among older persons is a complex and highly dynamic process, with high rates of recovery and frequent transitions between states of disability. The role of intervening illnesses ...and injuries (ie, events) on these transitions is uncertain. OBJECTIVES To evaluate the relationship between intervening events and transitions among states of no disability, mild disability, severe disability, and death and to determine the association of physical frailty with these transitions. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Prospective cohort study conducted in greater New Haven, Connecticut, from March 1998 to December 2008 of 754 community-living persons aged 70 years or older who were nondisabled at baseline in 4 essential activities of daily living: bathing, dressing, walking, and transferring. Telephone interviews were completed monthly for more than 10 years to assess disability and ascertain exposure to intervening events, which included illnesses and injuries leading to either hospitalization or restricted activity. Physical frailty (defined as gait speed >10 seconds on the rapid gait test) was assessed every 18 months through 108 months. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Transitions between no disability, mild disability, and severe disability and 3 transitions from each of these states to death, evaluated each month. RESULTS Hospitalization was strongly associated with 8 of the 9 possible transitions, with increased multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) as high as 168 (95% confidence interval CI, 118-239) for the transition from no disability to severe disability and decreased HRs as low as 0.41 (95% CI, 0.30-0.54) for the transition from mild disability to no disability. Restricted activity also increased the likelihood of transitioning from no disability to both mild and severe disability (HR, 2.59; 95% CI, 2.23-3.02; and HR, 8.03; 95% CI, 5.28-12.21), respectively, and from mild disability to severe disability (HR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.14-1.84), but was not associated with recovery from mild or severe disability. For all 9 transitions, the presence of physical frailty accentuated the associations of the intervening events. For example, the absolute risk of transitioning from no disability to mild disability within 1 month after hospitalization for frail individuals was 34.9% (95% CI, 34.5%-35.3%) vs 4.9% (95% CI, 4.7%-5.1%) for nonfrail individuals. Among the possible reasons for hospitalization, fall-related injury conferred the highest likelihood of developing new or worsening disability. CONCLUSIONS Among older persons, particularly those who were physically frail, intervening illnesses and injuries greatly increased the likelihood of developing new or worsening disability. Only the most potent events, ie, those leading to hospitalization, reduced the likelihood of recovery from disability.
Scholars argue about whether age stereotypes (beliefs about old people) are becoming more negative or positive over time. No previous study has systematically tested the trend of age stereotypes over ...more than 20 years, due to lack of suitable data. Our aim was to fill this gap by investigating whether age stereotypes have changed over the last two centuries and, if so, what may be associated with this change. We hypothesized that age stereotypes have increased in negativity due, in part, to the increasing medicalization of aging. This study applied computational linguistics to the recently compiled Corpus of Historical American English (COHA), a database of 400 million words that includes a range of printed sources from 1810 to 2009. After generating a comprehensive list of synonyms for the term elderly for these years from two historical thesauri, we identified 100 collocates (words that co-occurred most frequently with these synonyms) for each of the 20 decades. Inclusion criteria for the collocates were: (1) appeared within four words of the elderly synonym, (2) referred to an old person, and (3) had a stronger association with the elderly synonym than other words appearing in the database for that decade. This yielded 13,100 collocates that were rated for negativity and medicalization. We found that age stereotypes have become more negative in a linear way over 200 years. In 1880, age stereotypes switched from being positive to being negative. In addition, support was found for two potential explanations. Medicalization of aging and the growing proportion of the population over the age of 65 were both significantly associated with the increase in negative age stereotypes. The upward trajectory of age-stereotype negativity makes a case for remedial action on a societal level.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Study objective Among older persons, disability and functional decline are associated with increased mortality, institutionalization, and costs. The aim of the study was to determine whether ...illnesses and injuries leading to an emergency department (ED) visit but not hospitalization are associated with functional decline among community-living older persons. Methods From a cohort of 754 community-living older persons who have been followed with monthly interviews for up to 14 years, we matched 813 ED visits without hospitalization (ED only) to 813 observations without an ED visit or hospitalization (control). We compared the course of disability during the following 6 months between the 2 matched groups. To establish a frame of reference, we also compared the ED-only group with an unmatched group who were hospitalized after an ED visit (ED-hospitalized). Disability scores (range 0 lowest to 13 highest) were compared using generalized linear models adjusted for relevant covariates. Admission to a nursing home and mortality were evaluated as secondary outcomes. Results The ED-only and control groups were well matched. For both groups, the mean age was 84 years, and 69% were women. The baseline disability scores were 3.4 and 3.6 in the ED-only and control groups, respectively. During the 6-month follow-up period, the ED-only group had significantly higher disability scores than the control group, with an adjusted risk ratio of 1.14 (95% confidence interval CI 1.09 to 1.19). Compared with participants in the ED-only group, those who were hospitalized after an ED visit had disability scores that were significantly higher (risk ratio 1.17; 95% CI 1.12 to 1.22). Both nursing home admissions (hazard ratio 3.11; 95% CI 2.05 to 4.72) and mortality (hazard ratio 1.93; 95% CI 1.07 to 3.49) were higher in the ED-only group versus control group during the 6-month follow-up period. Conclusion Although not as debilitating as an acute hospitalization, illnesses and injuries leading to an ED visit without hospitalization were associated with a clinically meaningful decline in functional status during the following 6 months, suggesting that the period after an ED visit represents a vulnerable time for community-living older persons.
Active ageing is described as the process of optimizing health, empowerment, and security to enhance the quality of life in the rapidly growing population of older adults. Meanwhile, multimorbidity ...and neurological disorders, such as Parkinson's disease (PD), lead to global public health and resource limitations. We introduce a novel user-centered paradigm of ageing based on wearable-driven artificial intelligence (AI) that may harness the autonomy and independence that accompany functional limitation or disability, and possibly elevate life expectancy in older adults and people with PD.
ActiveAgeing is a 4-year, multicentre, mixed method, cyclic study that combines digital phenotyping via commercial devices (Empatica E4, Fitbit Sense, and Oura Ring) with traditional evaluation (clinical assessment scales, in-depth interviews, and clinical consultations) and includes four types of participants: (1) people with PD and (2) their informal caregiver; (3) healthy older adults from the Helgetun living environment in Norway, and (4) people on the Helgetun waiting list. For the first study, each group will be represented by N = 15 participants to test the data acquisition and to determine the sample size for the second study. To suggest lifestyle changes, modules for human expert-based advice, machine-generated advice, and self-generated advice from accessible data visualization will be designed. Quantitative analysis of physiological data will rely on digital signal processing (DSP) and AI techniques. The clinical assessment scales are the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS), Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA), Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), Geriatric Anxiety Inventory (GAI), Apathy Evaluation Scale (AES), and the REM Sleep Behaviour Disorder Screening Questionnaire (RBDSQ). A qualitative inquiry will be carried out with individual and focus group interviews and analysed using a hermeneutic approach including narrative and thematic analysis techniques.
We hypothesise that digital phenotyping is feasible to explore the ageing process from clinical and lifestyle perspectives including older adults and people with PD. Data is used for clinical decision-making by symptom tracking, predicting symptom evolution, and discovering new outcome measures for clinical trials.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Little is known about the deleterious effects of injurious falls relative to those of other disabling conditions or whether these effects are driven largely by hip fractures. From a cohort of 754 ...community-living elders of New Haven, Connecticut, we matched 122 hospitalizations for an injurious fall (59 hip-fracture and 63 other fall-related injuries) to 241 non-fall-related hospitalizations. Participants (mean age: 85.7 years) were evaluated monthly for disability in 13 activities and admission to a nursing home from 1998 to 2010. For both hip-fracture and other fall-related injuries, the disability scores were significantly greater during each of the first 6 months after hospitalization than for the non-fall-related admissions, with adjusted risk ratios at 6 months of 1.5 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3, 1.7) for hip fracture and 1.4 (95% CI: 1.2, 1.6) for other fall-related injuries. The likelihood of having a long-term nursing home admission was considerably greater after hospitalization for a hip fracture and other fall-related injury than for a non-fall-related reason, with adjusted odds ratios of 3.3 (95% CI: 1.3, 8.3) and 3.2 (95% CI: 1.3, 7.8), respectively. Relative to other conditions leading to hospitalization, hip-fracture and other fall-related injuries are associated with worse disability outcomes and a higher likelihood of long-term nursing home admissions.
We explored psychosocial pathways to longevity, specifically, the association between psychological well-being and mortality in a 20-year prospective cohort study of 7626 participants. As ...hypothesized, high self-acceptance and interdependence were associated with decreased mortality risk, controlling for other psychological components (purpose, positive relations, growth, mastery) and potential confounders: personality, depression, self-rated health, smoking status, body mass index (BMI), illness, and demographics. Self-acceptance decreased mortality risk by 19% and added three years of life. Longevity expectation fully mediated the relationship between self-acceptance and mortality. Interdependence decreased mortality risk by 17% and added two years of life. Serenity towards death fully mediated the relationship between interdependence and mortality. This is the first known study to investigate self-acceptance, interdependence, and serenity toward death as promoters of longevity, and distilled the relative contributions of these factors, controlling for covariates—all of which were measured over multiple time points. Theoretically, this study suggests that components of well-being may make meaningful contributions to longevity, and practically recommend that self-acceptance and interdependence could be added to interventions to promote aging health.
We evaluated TLR function in primary human dendritic cells (DCs) from 104 young (age 21-30 y) and older (> or =65 y) individuals. We used multicolor flow cytometry and intracellular cytokine staining ...of myeloid DCs (mDCs) and plasmacytoid DCs (pDCs) and found substantial decreases in older compared with young individuals in TNF-alpha, IL-6, and/or IL-12 (p40) production in mDCs and in TNF-alpha and IFN-alpha production in pDCs in response to TLR1/2, TLR2/6, TLR3, TLR5, and TLR8 engagement in mDCs and TLR7 and TLR9 in pDCs. These differences were highly significant after adjustment for heterogeneity between young and older groups (e.g., gender, race, body mass index, number of comorbid medical conditions) using mixed-effect statistical modeling. Studies of surface and intracellular expression of TLR proteins and of TLR gene expression in purified mDCs and pDCs revealed potential contributions for both transcriptional and posttranscriptional mechanisms in these age-associated effects. Moreover, intracellular cytokine production in the absence of TLR ligand stimulation was elevated in cells from older compared with young individuals, suggesting a dysregulation of cytokine production that may limit further activation by TLR engagement. Our results provide evidence for immunosenescence in DCs; notably, defects in cytokine production were strongly associated with poor Ab response to influenza immunization, a functional consequence of impaired TLR function in the aging innate immune response.
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