We report on a quantitative analysis of relationships between the number of homicides, population size and ten other urban metrics. By using data from Brazilian cities, we show that well-defined ...average scaling laws with the population size emerge when investigating the relations between population and number of homicides as well as population and urban metrics. We also show that the fluctuations around the scaling laws are log-normally distributed, which enabled us to model these scaling laws by a stochastic-like equation driven by a multiplicative and log-normally distributed noise. Because of the scaling laws, we argue that it is better to employ logarithms in order to describe the number of homicides in function of the urban metrics via regression analysis. In addition to the regression analysis, we propose an approach to correlate crime and urban metrics via the evaluation of the distance between the actual value of the number of homicides (as well as the value of the urban metrics) and the value that is expected by the scaling law with the population size. This approach has proved to be robust and useful for unveiling relationships/behaviors that were not properly carried out by the regression analysis, such as Formula: see text the non-explanatory potential of the elderly population when the number of homicides is much above or much below the scaling law, Formula: see text the fact that unemployment has explanatory potential only when the number of homicides is considerably larger than the expected by the power law, and Formula: see text a gender difference in number of homicides, where cities with female population below the scaling law are characterized by a number of homicides above the power law.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Summarized by the efficient market hypothesis, the idea that stock prices fully reflect all available information is always confronted with the behavior of real-world markets. While there is plenty ...of evidence indicating and quantifying the efficiency of stock markets, most studies assume this efficiency to be constant over time so that its dynamical and collective aspects remain poorly understood. Here we define the time-varying efficiency of stock markets by calculating the permutation entropy within sliding time-windows of log-returns of stock market indices. We show that major world stock markets can be hierarchically classified into several groups that display similar long-term efficiency profiles. However, we also show that efficiency ranks and clusters of markets with similar trends are only stable for a few months at a time. We thus propose a network representation of stock markets that aggregates their short-term efficiency patterns into a global and coherent picture. We find this financial network to be strongly entangled while also having a modular structure that consists of two distinct groups of stock markets. Our results suggest that stock market efficiency is a collective phenomenon that can drive its operation at a high level of informational efficiency, but also places the entire system under risk of failure.
Nestedness has traditionally been used to detect assembly patterns in meta-communities and networks of interacting species. Attempts have also been made to uncover nested structures in international ...trade, typically represented as bipartite networks in which connections can be established between countries (exporters or importers) and industries. A bipartite representation of trade, however, inevitably neglects transactions between industries. To fully capture the organization of the global value chain, we draw on the World Input-Output Database and construct a multi-layer network in which the nodes are the countries, the layers are the industries, and links can be established from sellers to buyers within and across industries. We define the buyers' and sellers' participation matrices in which the rows are the countries and the columns are all possible pairs of industries, and then compute nestedness based on buyers' and sellers' involvement in transactions between and within industries. Drawing on appropriate null models that preserve the countries' or layers' degree distributions in the original multi-layer network, we uncover variations of country- and transaction-based nestedness over time, and identify the countries and industries that most contributed to nestedness. We discuss the implications of our findings for the study of the international production network and other real-world systems.
More than a half of world population is now living in cities and this number is expected to be two-thirds by 2050. Fostered by the relevancy of a scientific characterization of cities and for the ...availability of an unprecedented amount of data, academics have recently immersed in this topic and one of the most striking and universal finding was the discovery of robust allometric scaling laws between several urban indicators and the population size. Despite that, most governmental reports and several academic works still ignore these nonlinearities by often analyzing the raw or the per capita value of urban indicators, a practice that actually makes the urban metrics biased towards small or large cities depending on whether we have super or sublinear allometries. By following the ideas of Bettencourt et al. PLoS ONE 5 (2010) e13541, we account for this bias by evaluating the difference between the actual value of an urban indicator and the value expected by the allometry with the population size. We show that this scale-adjusted metric provides a more appropriate/informative summary of the evolution of urban indicators and reveals patterns that do not appear in the evolution of per capita values of indicators obtained from Brazilian cities. We also show that these scale-adjusted metrics are strongly correlated with their past values by a linear correspondence and that they also display crosscorrelations among themselves. Simple linear models account for 31%-97% of the observed variance in data and correctly reproduce the average of the scale-adjusted metric when grouping the cities in above and below the allometric laws. We further employ these models to forecast future values of urban indicators and, by visualizing the predicted changes, we verify the emergence of spatial clusters characterized by regions of the Brazilian territory where we expect an increase or a decrease in the values of urban indicators.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Abstract
Transportation networks play a critical role in human mobility and the exchange of goods, but they are also the primary vehicles for the worldwide spread of infections, and account for a ...significant fraction of
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emissions. We investigate the edge removal dynamics of two mature but fast-changing transportation networks: the Brazilian domestic bus transportation network and the U.S. domestic air transportation network. We use machine learning approaches to predict edge removal on a monthly time scale and find that models trained on data for a given month predict edge removals for the same month with high accuracy. For the air transportation network, we also find that models trained for a given month are still accurate for other months even in the presence of external shocks. We take advantage of this approach to forecast the impact of a hypothetical dramatic reduction in the scale of the U.S. air transportation network as a result of policies to reduce
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emissions. Our forecasting approach could be helpful in building scenarios for planning future infrastructure.
Urban scaling theory explains the increasing returns to scale of urban wealth indicators by the per capita increase of human interactions within cities. This explanation implicitly assumes urban ...areas as isolated entities and ignores their interactions. Here we investigate the effects of commuting networks on the gross domestic product (GDP) of urban areas in the US and Brazil. We describe the urban GDP as the output of a production process where population, incoming commuters, and interactions between these quantities are the input variables. This approach significantly refines the description of urban GDP and shows that incoming commuters contribute to wealth creation in urban areas. Our research indicates that changes in urban GDP related to proportionate changes in population and incoming commuters depend on the initial values of these quantities, such that increasing returns to scale are only possible when the product between population and incoming commuters exceeds a well-defined threshold.
Countries become global leaders by controlling international and domestic transactions connecting geographically dispersed production stages. We model global trade as a multi-layer network and study ...its power structure by investigating the tendency of eigenvector centrality to concentrate on a small fraction of countries, a phenomenon called localization transition. We show that the market underwent a significant drop in power concentration precisely in 2007 just before the global financial crisis. That year marked an inflection point at which new winners and losers emerged and a remarkable reversal of leading role took place between the two major economies, the US and China. We uncover the hierarchical structure of global trade and the contribution of individual industries to variations in countries' economic dominance. We also examine the crucial role that domestic trade played in leading China to overtake the US as the world's dominant trading nation. There is an important lesson that countries can draw on how to turn early signals of upcoming downturns into opportunities for growth. Our study shows that, despite the hardships they inflict, shocks to the economy can also be seen as strategic windows countries can seize to become leading nations and leapfrog other economies in a changing geopolitical landscape.
Human mobility has a significant impact on several layers of society, from infrastructural planning and economics to the spread of diseases and crime. Representing the system as a complex network, in ...which nodes are assigned to regions (e.g., a city) and links indicate the flow of people between two of them, physics-inspired models have been proposed to quantify the number of people migrating from one city to the other. Despite the advances made by these models, our ability to predict the number of commuters and reconstruct mobility networks remains limited. Here, we propose an alternative approach using machine learning and 22 urban indicators to predict the flow of people and reconstruct the intercity commuters network. Our results reveal that predictions based on machine learning algorithms and urban indicators can reconstruct the commuters network with 90.4% of accuracy and describe 77.6% of the variance observed in the flow of people between cities. We also identify essential features to recover the network structure and the urban indicators mostly related to commuting patterns. As previously reported, distance plays a significant role in commuting, but other indicators, such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and unemployment rate, are also driven-forces for people to commute. We believe that our results shed new lights on the modeling of migration and reinforce the role of urban indicators on commuting patterns. Also, because link-prediction and network reconstruction are still open challenges in network science, our results have implications in other areas, like economics, social sciences, and biology, where node attributes can give us information about the existence of links connecting entities in the network.
We report on a diffusive analysis of the motion of flagellate protozoa species. These parasites are the etiological agents of neglected tropical diseases: leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania ...amazonensis and Leishmania braziliensis, African sleeping sickness caused by Trypanosoma brucei, and Chagas disease caused by Trypanosoma cruzi. By tracking the positions of these parasites and evaluating the variance related to the radial positions, we find that their motions are characterized by a short-time transient superdiffusive behavior. Also, the probability distributions of the radial positions are self-similar and can be approximated by a stretched Gaussian distribution. We further investigate the probability distributions of the radial velocities of individual trajectories. Among several candidates, we find that the generalized gamma distribution shows a good agreement with these distributions. The velocity time series have long-range correlations, displaying a strong persistent behavior (Hurst exponents close to one). The prevalence of "universal" patterns across all analyzed species indicates that similar mechanisms may be ruling the motion of these parasites, despite their differences in morphological traits. In addition, further analysis of these patterns could become a useful tool for investigating the activity of new candidate drugs against these and others neglected tropical diseases.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The majority of stars are part of gravitationally bound stellar systems, such as binaries. Observations of protobinary systems constrain the conditions that lead to stellar multiplicity and ...subsequent orbital evolution. We report high-angular resolution observations of the circumbinary disk around BHB2007 11, a young binary protostar system. The two protostars are embedded in circumstellar disks that have radii of 2 to 3 astronomical units and probably contain a few Jupiter masses. These systems are surrounded by a complex structure of filaments connecting to the larger circumbinary disk. We also observe accretion and radio jets associated with the protobinary system. The accretion is preferentially onto the lower-mass protostar, consistent with theoretical predictions.
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