A dominant paradigm for mid-latitude air-sea interaction identifies the synoptic-scale atmospheric “noise” as the main driver for the observed ocean surface variability. While this conceptual model ...successfully holds over most of the mid-latitude ocean surface, its soundness over frontal zones (including western boundary currents; WBC) characterized by intense mesoscale activity, has been questioned in a number of studies suggesting a driving role for the small scale ocean dynamics (mesoscale oceanic eddies) in the modulation of air-sea interaction. In this context, climate models provide a powerful experimental device to inspect the emerging scale-dependent nature of mid-latitude air-sea interaction. This study assesses the impact of model resolution on the representation of air-sea interaction over the Gulf Stream region, in a multi-model ensemble of present-climate simulations performed using a common experimental design. Lead-lag correlation and covariance patterns between sea surface temperature (SST) and turbulent heat flux (THF) are diagnosed to identify the leading regimes of air-sea interaction in a region encompassing both the Gulf Stream system and the North Atlantic subtropical basin. Based on these statistical metrics it is found that coupled models based on “laminar” (eddy-parameterised) and eddy-permitting oceans are able to discriminate between an ocean-driven regime, dominating the region controlled by the Gulf Stream dynamics, and an atmosphere-driven regime, typical of the open ocean regions. However, the increase of model resolution leads to a better representation of SST and THF cross-covariance patterns and functional forms, and the major improvements can be largely ascribed to a refinement of the oceanic model component.
Recently, much attention has been devoted to better understand the internal modes of variability of the climate system. This is particularly important in mid-latitude regions like the North-Atlantic, ...which is characterized by a large natural variability and is intrinsically difficult to predict. A suitable framework for studying the modes of variability of the atmospheric circulation is to look for recurrent patterns, commonly referred to as Weather Regimes. Each regime is characterized by a specific large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern, thus influencing regional weather and extremes over Europe. The focus of the present paper is the study of the Euro-Atlantic wintertime Weather Regimes in the climate models participating to the PRIMAVERA project. We analyse here the set of coupled historical simulations (hist-1950), which have been performed both at standard and increased resolution, following the HighresMIP protocol. The models’ performance in reproducing the observed Weather Regimes is assessed in terms of different metrics, focussing on systematic biases and on the impact of resolution. We also analyse the connection of the Weather Regimes with the Jet Stream latitude and blocking frequency over the North-Atlantic sector. We find that—for most models—the regime patterns are better represented in the higher resolution version, for all regimes but the NAO-. On the other side, no clear impact of resolution is seen on the regime frequency of occurrence and persistence. Also, for most models, the regimes tend to be more tightly clustered in the increased resolution simulations, more closely resembling the observed ones. However, the horizontal resolution is not the only factor determining the model performance, and we find some evidence that biases in the SSTs and mean geopotential field might also play a role.
A multi-model ensemble of decadal prediction experiments, performed in the framework of the EU-funded COMBINE (Comprehensive Modelling of the Earth System for Better Climate Prediction and ...Projection) Project following the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project protocol is examined. The ensemble combines a variety of dynamical models, initialization and perturbation strategies, as well as data assimilation products employed to constrain the initial state of the system. Taking advantage of the multi-model approach, several aspects of decadal climate predictions are assessed, including predictive skill, impact of the initialization strategy and the level of uncertainty characterizing the predicted fluctuations of key climate variables. The present analysis adds to the growing evidence that the current generation of climate models adequately initialized have significant skill in predicting years ahead not only the anthropogenic warming but also part of the internal variability of the climate system. An important finding is that the multi-model ensemble mean does generally outperform the individual forecasts, a well-documented result for seasonal forecasting, supporting the need to extend the multi-model framework to real-time decadal predictions in order to maximize the predictive capabilities of currently available decadal forecast systems. The multi-model perspective did also allow a more robust assessment of the impact of the initialization strategy on the quality of decadal predictions, providing hints of an improved forecast skill under full-value (with respect to anomaly) initialization in the near-term range, over the Indo-Pacific equatorial region. Finally, the consistency across the different model predictions was assessed. Specifically, different systems reveal a general agreement in predicting the near-term evolution of surface temperatures, displaying positive correlations between different decadal hindcasts over most of the global domain.
Mineral dust aerosols exert a significant effect on both solar and terrestrial radiation. By absorbing and scattering, the solar radiation aerosols reduce the amount of energy reaching the surface. ...In addition, aerosols enhance the greenhouse effect by absorbing and emitting outgoing longwave radiation. Desert dust forcing exhibits large regional and temporal variability due to its short lifetime and diverse optical properties, further complicating the quantification of the direct radiative effect (DRE). The complexity of the links and feedbacks of dust on radiative transfer indicate the need for an integrated approach in order to examine these impacts. In order to examine these feedbacks, the SKIRON limited area model has been upgraded to include the RRTMG (Rapid Radiative Transfer Model - GCM) radiative transfer model that takes into consideration the aerosol radiative effects. It was run for a 6 year period. Two sets of simulations were performed, one without the effects of dust and the other including the radiative feedback. The results were first evaluated using aerosol optical depth data to examine the capabilities of the system in describing the desert dust cycle. Then the aerosol feedback on radiative transfer was quantified and the links between dust and radiation were studied. The study has revealed a strong interaction between dust particles and solar and terrestrial radiation, with several implications on the energy budget of the atmosphere. A profound effect is the increased absorption (in the shortwave and longwave) in the lower troposphere and the induced modification of the atmospheric temperature profile. These feedbacks depend strongly on the spatial distribution of dust and have more profound effects where the number of particles is greater, such as near their source.
The aim of this study was to unravel the methodological challenges when exploring nutritional inadequacy, involving 608 healthy pregnant women. The usual intake of twenty-one nutrients was recorded ...by employing a validated FFQ. Simulated datasets of usual intake were generated, with randomly imposed uncertainty. The comparison between the usual intake and the EAR was accomplished with the probability approach and the EAR cut-point method. Point estimates were accompanied by bootstrap confidence intervals. Bootstrap intervals applied on the risk of inadequacy for raw and simulated data tended in most cases to overlap. A detailed statistical analysis, aiming to predict the level of inadequacy, as well as the application of the EAR cut-point method, along with bootstrap intervals, could effectively be used to assess nutrient inadequacy. However, the final decision for the method used depends on the distribution of nutrient-intake under evaluation. Irrespective of the applied methodology, moderate to high levels of inadequacy, calculated from FFQ were identified for certain nutrients (e.g., vitamins C, B6, magnesium, vitamin A), while the highest were recorded for folate and iron. Considering that micronutrient-poor, obesogenic diets are becoming more common, the underlying rationale may help towards unraveling the complexity characterizing nutritional inadequacies, especially in vulnerable populations.
We have investigated the horizontal resolution dependence of the ocean–atmosphere coupling along the Gulf Stream, of simulations made by six Global Climate Models according to the HighResMIP ...protocol, and compared it with reanalysis and remote sensing observations. Two ocean–atmosphere interaction mechanisms are explored in detail: The Vertical Mixing Mechanism (VMM) associated with the intensification of downward momentum transfer, and the Pressure Adjustment Mechanism (PAM) associated with secondary circulations driven by pressure gradients. Both VMM and PAM are found to be active even in the eddy-parameterized models. However, increasing ocean and/or atmosphere resolution leads to enhanced ocean–atmosphere coupling and improved agreement with reanalysis and observations. Our results indicate that while one part of the stronger air–sea coupling is attributable to the refinement of the oceanic component to eddy-permitting, optimal results are obtained only by further increase of the atmosphere resolution too. The use of the eddy-resolving model show weaker or same coupling strength over the eddy-permitting resolution. We conclude that at least eddy-permiting ocean resolution and comparable atmosphere resolution are required for a reliable ocean–atmosphere coupling along the Gulf Stream.
The objectives were to develop a Mediterranean oriented semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) and evaluate its validity in measuring energy and nutrient intakes. For FFQ development, ...the main challenge was to merge food items and practices reflecting cultural Mediterranean preferences with other food choices ensuing from diet transition to more westernized dietary patterns. FFQ validity was evaluated by comparing nutrient intakes against the average of two 24-h dietary recalls for 179 pregnant women. Although the mean intake values for most nutrients and energy tended to be higher when determined by the FFQ, the Cohen's d was below 0.3. Bland-Altman plots confirmed the agreement between the two methods. Positive significant correlations ranged from 0.35 to 0.77. The proportion of women classified correctly was between 73.2% and 92.2%, whereas gross misclassification was low. Weighted kappa values were between 0.31 and 0.78, while intraclass correlation coefficients were between 0.49 and 0.89. Our methodological approach for the development and validation of this FFQ provides reliable measurements of energy, macro- and micronutrient intakes. Overall, our culture-specific FFQ could serve as a useful assessment tool in studies aiming at monitoring dietary intakes, especially in the Mediterranean region, where countries share common cultural dietary habits.
Study objective
To estimate the diagnostic accuracy of three-dimensional ultrasonography (3D US) compared to hysteroscopy/laparoscopy, in the investigation of uterine congenital anomalies using the ...ESHRE/ESGE classification of female genital tract congenital anomalies.
Design
Prospective blind, comparative, cohort study.
Setting
University Tertiary Hospital and affiliated private Hospital.
Patients and methods
Sixty-two women consecutively referred with a suspected diagnosis of uterine congenital anomalies. The ESHRE/ESGE classification of congenital anomalies of the female genital tract was used for the description of abnormal findings.
Interventions
All patients underwent (1) 3D US and (2) hysteroscopy with laparoscopy to establish the final diagnosis.
Results
Concordance between 3D US and hysteroscopy with laparoscopy about the type and the classification of uterine anomaly was verified in 61 cases, including all those with septate uterus, dysmorphic uterus, bicorporeal, hemi-uterus or unicorporeal, and aplastic uterus and one out of two with normal uterus. For the diagnosis of septate uteri, which was the most common anomaly, the sensitivity of 3D US was 100%, the specificity was 92.3%, the PPV was 98% and the NPV was 100%, with kappa index 0.950. For bicorporeal, dysmorphic uterus, hemi-uteri or unicorporeal and aplastic uterus the sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV were all 100% with
K
= 1.00. Overall, 3D US showed perfect diagnostic accuracy (Kappa index = 0.945) in the detection of congenital uterine anomalies.
Conclusion
3D US appears to be a very accurate method for the diagnosis of congenital uterine anomalies.
This study aimed to characterize dietary protein patterns (DPPs) in a sample pool of 298 well-nourished pregnant women and explore potential associations between DPPs and neonatal anthropometrics. ...Maternal dietary data were collected using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Neonatal anthropometrics were abstracted from health booklets. A hierarchical cluster analysis identified three DPPs: “Dairy-focused”, “Med-fusion”, and “Traditional-inspired”. The “Dairy-focused” DPP exhibited the highest protein intake (p < 0.001), predominantly animal protein (p < 0.001), while the “Traditional-inspired” DPP presented higher plant protein (p < 0.001) and fiber intakes (p < 0.001), and, therefore, a reduced carbohydrate-to-fiber quotient (p < 0.001). The “Med-fusion” DPP had the lowest protein-to-fat ratio (p < 0.001). Infants of women following the “Dairy-focused” DPP had the highest birth height centiles (p = 0.007) and the lowest ponderal index (p = 0.003). The NMR-metabolomics approach was implemented on a subset of women that provided amniotic fluid (AF) specimens (n = 62) to elucidate distinct metabolic signatures associated with DPPs. PCA and OPLS-DA models verified the adherence to three DPPs, revealing that the levels of several amino acids (AAs) were the highest in “Dairy-focused”, reflecting its protein-rich nature. The “Traditional-inspired” DPP showed decreased AAs and glucose levels. This knowledge may contribute to optimizing maternal dietary recommendations. Further research is needed to validate these findings and better understand the relationships between maternal diet, AF metabolic signature, and neonatal anthropometrics.
This study aimed to explore the nutritional profile of 608 women during the second trimester of pregnancy, in terms of nutrient patterns, dietary quality and nutritional adequacy. Dietary data were ...collected using a validated Mediterranean-oriented, culture-specific FFQ. Principal component analysis was performed on 18 energy-adjusted nutrients. Two main nutrient patterns, "plant-origin" (PLO) and "animal-origin" (ANO), were extracted. Six homogenous clusters (C) relative to nutrient patterns were obtained and analyzed through a multidimensional methodological approach. C1, C5 and C6 scored positively on PLO, while C1, C2 and C3 scored positively on ANO. When dietary quality was mapped on food choices and dietary indexes, C6 unveiled a group with a distinct image resembling the Mediterranean-type diet (MedDiet Score = 33.8). Although C1-C5 shared common dietary characteristics, their diet quality differed as reflected in the HEI-2010 (C1:79.7; C2:73.3; C3:70.9; C4:63.2; C5:76.6). The appraisal of nutritional adequacy mirrored a "nutritional-quality gradient". A total of 50% of participants in C6 had almost 100% adequate magnesium intake, while 50% of participants in C4 had a probability of adequacy of ≤10%. Our methodological framework is efficient for assessing the link between a posteriori dietary patterns and nutritional adequacy during pregnancy. Given that macro- and micronutrient distributions may induce metabolic modifications of potential relevance to offspring's health, public health strategies should be implemented.
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