The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of diarrhoea in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and ...aetiologies in 1990–2016 and assesses how the burden of diarrhoea has changed in people of all ages.
We modelled diarrhoea mortality with a Bayesian hierarchical modelling platform that evaluates a wide range of covariates and model types on the basis of vital registration and verbal autopsy data. We modelled diarrhoea incidence with a compartmental meta-regression tool that enforces an association between incidence and prevalence, and relies on scientific literature, population representative surveys, and health-care data. Diarrhoea deaths and episodes were attributed to 13 pathogens by use of a counterfactual population attributable fraction approach. Diarrhoea risk factors are also based on counterfactual estimates of risk exposure and the association between the risk and diarrhoea. Each modelled estimate accounted for uncertainty.
In 2016, diarrhoea was the eighth leading cause of death among all ages (1 655 944 deaths, 95% uncertainty interval UI 1 244 073–2 366 552) and the fifth leading cause of death among children younger than 5 years (446 000 deaths, 390 894–504 613). Rotavirus was the leading aetiology for diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years (128 515 deaths, 105 138–155 133) and among all ages (228 047 deaths, 183 526–292 737). Childhood wasting (low weight-for-height score), unsafe water, and unsafe sanitation were the leading risk factors for diarrhoea, responsible for 80·4% (95% UI 68·2–85·0), 72·1% (34·0–91·4), and 56·4% (49·3–62·7) of diarrhoea deaths in children younger than 5 years, respectively. Prevention of wasting in 1762 children (95% UI 1521–2170) could avert one death from diarrhoea.
Substantial progress has been made globally in reducing the burden of diarrhoeal diseases, driven by decreases in several primary risk factors. However, this reduction has not been equal across locations, and burden among adults older than 70 years requires attention.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma are common diseases with a heterogeneous distribution worldwide. Here, we present methods and disease and risk estimates for COPD and asthma ...from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2015 study. The GBD study provides annual updates on estimates of deaths, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), a summary measure of fatal and non-fatal disease outcomes, for over 300 diseases and injuries, for 188 countries from 1990 to the most recent year.
We estimated numbers of deaths due to COPD and asthma using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) tool. First, we analysed data from vital registration and verbal autopsy for the aggregate category of all chronic respiratory diseases. Subsequently, models were run for asthma and COPD relying on covariates to predict rates in countries that have incomplete or no vital registration data. Disease estimates for COPD and asthma were based on systematic reviews of published papers, unpublished reports, surveys, and health service encounter data from the USA. We used the Global Initiative of Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease spirometry-based definition as the reference for COPD and a reported diagnosis of asthma with current wheeze as the definition of asthma. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to derive estimates of prevalence and incidence. We estimated population-attributable fractions for risk factors for COPD and asthma from exposure data, relative risks, and a theoretical minimum exposure level. Results were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure of income per capita, mean years of education over the age of 15 years, and total fertility rate.
In 2015, 3·2 million people (95% uncertainty interval UI 3·1 million to 3·3 million) died from COPD worldwide, an increase of 11·6% (95% UI 5·3 to 19·8) compared with 1990. There was a decrease in age-standardised death rate of 41·9% (37·7 to 45·1) but this was counteracted by population growth and ageing of the global population. From 1990 to 2015, the prevalence of COPD increased by 44·2% (41·7 to 46·6), whereas age-standardised prevalence decreased by 14·7% (13·5 to 15·9). In 2015, 0·40 million people (0·36 million to 0·44 million) died from asthma, a decrease of 26·7% (−7·2 to 43·7) from 1990, and the age-standardised death rate decreased by 58·8% (39·0 to 69·0). The prevalence of asthma increased by 12·6% (9·0 to 16·4), whereas the age-standardised prevalence decreased by 17·7% (15·1 to 19·9). Age-standardised DALY rates due to COPD increased until the middle range of the SDI before reducing sharply. Age-standardised DALY rates due to asthma in both sexes decreased monotonically with rising SDI. The relation between with SDI and DALY rates due to asthma was attributed to variation in years of life lost (YLLs), whereas DALY rates due to COPD varied similarly for YLLs and years lived with disability across the SDI continuum. Smoking and ambient particulate matter were the main risk factors for COPD followed by household air pollution, occupational particulates, ozone, and secondhand smoke. Together, these risks explained 73·3% (95% UI 65·8 to 80·1) of DALYs due to COPD. Smoking and occupational asthmagens were the only risks quantified for asthma in GBD, accounting for 16·5% (14·6 to 18·7) of DALYs due to asthma.
Asthma was the most prevalent chronic respiratory disease worldwide in 2015, with twice the number of cases of COPD. Deaths from COPD were eight times more common than deaths from asthma. In 2015, COPD caused 2·6% of global DALYs and asthma 1·1% of global DALYs. Although there are laudable international collaborative efforts to make surveys of asthma and COPD more comparable, no consensus exists on case definitions and how to measure disease severity for population health measurements like GBD. Comparisons between countries and over time are important, as much of the chronic respiratory burden is either preventable or treatable with affordable interventions.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Efforts to quantify the global burden of enteric fever are valuable for understanding the health lost and the large-scale spatial distribution of the disease. We present the estimates of typhoid and ...paratyphoid fever burden from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, and the approach taken to produce them.
For this systematic analysis we broke down the relative contributions of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers by country, year, and age, and analysed trends in incidence and mortality. We modelled the combined incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers and split these total cases proportionally between typhoid and paratyphoid fevers using aetiological proportion models. We estimated deaths using vital registration data for countries with sufficiently high data completeness and using a natural history approach for other locations. We also estimated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for typhoid and paratyphoid fevers.
Globally, 14·3 million (95% uncertainty interval UI 12·5–16·3) cases of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers occurred in 2017, a 44·6% (42·2–47·0) decline from 25·9 million (22·0–29·9) in 1990. Age-standardised incidence rates declined by 54·9% (53·4–56·5), from 439·2 (376·7–507·7) per 100 000 person-years in 1990, to 197·8 (172·0–226·2) per 100 000 person-years in 2017. In 2017, Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi caused 76·3% (71·8–80·5) of cases of enteric fever. We estimated a global case fatality of 0·95% (0·54–1·53) in 2017, with higher case fatality estimates among children and older adults, and among those living in lower-income countries. We therefore estimated 135·9 thousand (76·9–218·9) deaths from typhoid and paratyphoid fever globally in 2017, a 41·0% (33·6–48·3) decline from 230·5 thousand (131·2–372·6) in 1990. Overall, typhoid and paratyphoid fevers were responsible for 9·8 million (5·6–15·8) DALYs in 2017, down 43·0% (35·5–50·6) from 17·2 million (9·9–27·8) DALYs in 1990.
Despite notable progress, typhoid and paratyphoid fevers remain major causes of disability and death, with billions of people likely to be exposed to the pathogens. Although improvements in water and sanitation remain essential, increased vaccine use (including with typhoid conjugate vaccines that are effective in infants and young children and protective for longer periods) and improved data and surveillance to inform vaccine rollout are likely to drive the greatest improvements in the global burden of the disease.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Background Despite several years of school-based MDA implementation, STH infections remain an important public health problem in Benin, with a country-wide prevalence of 20% in 2015. The DeWorm3 ...study is designed to assess the feasibility of using community-based MDA with albendazole to interrupt the transmission of STH, through a series of cluster-randomized trials in Benin, India and Malawi. We used the pre-treatment baseline survey data to describe and analyze the factors associated with STH infection in Comé, the study site of the DeWorm3 project in Benin. These data will improve understanding of the challenges that need to be addressed in order to eliminate STH as a public health problem in Benin. Methods Between March and April 2018, the prevalence of STH (hookworm spp., Ascaris and Trichuris trichiura) was assessed by Kato-Katz in stool samples collected from 6,153 residents in the community of Comé, Benin using a stratified random sampling procedure. A standardized survey questionnaire was used to collect information from individual households concerning factors potentially associated with the presence and intensity of STH infections in pre-school (PSAC, aged 1-4), school-aged children (SAC, aged 5-14) and adults (aged 15 and above). Multilevel mixed-effects models were used to assess associations between these factors and STH infection. Results The overall prevalence of STH infection was 5.3%; 3.2% hookworm spp., 2.1% Ascaris lumbricoides and 0.1% Trichuris. Hookworm spp. were more prevalent in adults than in SAC (4.4% versus 2.0%, respectively; p = 0.0001) and PSAC (4.4% versus 1.0%, respectively; p<0.0001), whilst Ascaris lumbricoides was more prevalent in SAC than in adults (3.0% versus 1.7%, respectively; p = 0.004). Being PSAC (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) = 0.2, p< 0.001; adjusted Infection Intensity Ratio (aIIR) = 0.1, p<0.001) or SAC (aOR = 0.5, p = 0.008; aIIR = 0.3, p = 0.01), being a female (aOR = 0.6, p = 0.004; aIIR = 0.3, p = 0.001), and having received deworming treatment the previous year (aOR = 0.4, p< 0.002; aIIR = 0.2, p<0.001) were associated with a lower prevalence and intensity of hookworm infection. Lower income (lowest quintile: aOR = 5.0, p<0.001, 2.sup.nd quintile aOR = 3.6, p = 0.001 and 3.sup.rd quintile aOR = 2.5, p = 0.02), being a farmer (aOR = 1.8, p = 0.02), medium population density (aOR = 2.6, p = 0.01), and open defecation (aOR = 0.5, p = 0.04) were associated with a higher prevalence of hookworm infection. Lower education-no education, primary or secondary school- (aIIR = 40.1, p = 0.01; aIIR = 30.9, p = 0.02; aIIR = 19.3, p = 0.04, respectively), farming (aIIR = 3.9, p = 0.002), natural flooring (aIIR = 0.2, p = 0.06), peri-urban settings (aIIR = 6.2, 95%CI 1.82-20.90, p = 0.003), and unimproved water source more than 30 minutes from the household (aIIR = 13.5, p = 0.02) were associated with a higher intensity of hookworm infection. Improved and unshared toilet was associated with lower intensity of hookworm infections (aIIR = 0.2, p = 0.01). SAC had a higher odds of Ascaris lumbricoides infection than adults (aOR = 2.0, p = 0.01) and females had a lower odds of infection (aOR = 0.5, p = 0.02). Conclusion Hookworm spp. are the most prevalent STH in Comé, with a persistent reservoir in adults that is not addressed by current control measures based on school MDA. Expanding MDA to target adults and PSAC is necessary to substantially impact population prevalence, particularly for hookworm. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03014167.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Despite the significant success of deworming programs in reducing morbidity due to soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections globally, efforts to achieve elimination of STH as a public health ...problem or to potentially interrupt transmission will require improving and intensifying surveillance. However, non-participation in surveillance threatens the ability of programs to adequately monitor program status and limited research has been conducted to investigate drivers of non-participation in stool-based surveillance.
This mixed-methods exploratory sequential study took place in Comé, Benin in association with the DeWorm3 Project. Six focus group discussions were conducted with individuals invited to participate in annual DeWorm3 stool surveillance. Thematic analysis was used to identify facilitators and barriers to participation and inform the quantitative analysis. A mixed-effects logistic regression model was built using baseline DeWorm3 survey data to identify factors associated with non-participation. Qualitative and quantitative findings were merged for interpretation. Among the 7,039 individuals invited to participate in baseline stool surveillance, the refusal rate was 8.1%. Qualitative themes included: community members weighing community-level benefits against individual-level risks, circulating rumors about misuse of stool samples, interpersonal communication with field agents, and cultural norms around handling adult feces. The quantitative analysis demonstrated that adults were significantly less likely to provide a stool sample than school-aged children (OR:0.69, 95%CI: 0.55-0.88), a finding that converged with the qualitative results. Individuals from areas in the highest quartile of population density were more likely to refuse to participate (OR:1.71, 95%CI:1.16-2.52). Several variables linked to community-affinity aligned with qualitative results; residing mainly in the community (OR:0.36, 95%CI:0.20-0.66) and having lived in the community for more than 10 years (OR:0.82, 95%CI:0.54-1.25) decreased likelihood of refusal.
Optimizing STH surveillance will require that programs reimagine STH surveillance activities to address community concerns and ensure that no subpopulations are inadvertently excluded from surveillance data.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The African continent is currently facing an epidemiological transition characterized by a shift from communicable to non-communicable diseases. Prominent amongst the latter are allergies and asthma. ...In that context, wheeze has multiple potential contributory factors that could include some of the endemic helminth infections, as well as environmental exposures, such as household air pollution. We sought to determine the relative importance of these risk factors among children in Benin.
We included 964 children aged 6-14 years living in the commune of Comé, south-west Benin. All children were participants in the longitudinal monitoring cohort of the DeWorm3 trial designed to evaluate multiple rounds of community mass treatment with albendazole for interruption of the transmission of soil transmitted helminths (STH). We administered a standard ISAAC questionnaire to determine the presence of wheeze. In addition, we assessed exposure to household air pollution and to other potential allergy-inducing factors, dietary intake and anthropometry. Using STH infection status assessed at the pretreatment baseline timepoint, we used multivariate statistical modelling, controlling for covariates, to investigate associations between wheeze and the different factors measured.
The prevalence of wheezing history was 5.2%, of current wheezing was 4.6% and of severe wheezing was 3.1%, while STH infections were found in 5.6% of children. These profiles did not vary as a function of either age or gender. Infection with Ascaris lumbricoides, but not hookworm species, was significantly associated with both current wheeze (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) = 4.3; 95% CI 1.5-12.0) and severe wheeze (aOR = 9.2; 95% CI 3.1-27.8). Significant positive associations with current wheeze, independent of each other and of STH infection status, were also found for (i) use of open cookstoves (aOR = 3.9; 95% CI 1.3-11.5), (ii) use of palm cakes for fire lighting (aOR = 3.4; 95% CI 1.1-9.9), (iii) contact with domestic animals and/or rodents (aOR = 2.5; 95% CI 1.1-6.0), (iv) being overweight (aOR = 9.7; 95% CI 1.7-55.9). Use of open cookstoves and being overweight were also independent risk factors for severe wheeze (aOR = 3.9; 95% CI 1.1-13.7) and aOR = 10.3; 95% CI 1.8-60.0, respectively).
Children infected with A. lumbricoides appear to be at elevated risk of wheeze. Deworming may be an important intervention to reduce these symptoms. Improving cooking methods to reduce household air pollution, modifying dietary habits to avoid overweight, and keeping animals out of the house are all additional measures that could also contribute to reducing childrens' risk of wheeze. Policymakers in LMIC should consider tailoring public health measures to reflect the importance of these different risk factors.
Many countries have shown marked declines in diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years. With this analysis, we provide updated results on diarrhoeal disease mortality among ...children younger than 5 years from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) and use the study's comparative risk assessment to quantify trends and effects of risk factors, interventions, and broader sociodemographic development on mortality changes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017.
This analysis for GBD 2017 had three main components. Diarrhoea mortality was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive, Bayesian, ensemble modelling tool; and the attribution of risk factors and interventions for diarrhoea were modelled in a counterfactual framework that combines modelled population-level prevalence of the exposure to each risk or intervention with the relative risk of diarrhoea given exposure to that factor. We assessed the relative and absolute change in diarrhoea mortality rate between 1990 and 2017, and used the change in risk factor exposure and sociodemographic status to explain differences in the trends of diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years.
Diarrhoea was responsible for an estimated 533 768 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 477 162–593 145) among children younger than 5 years globally in 2017, a rate of 78·4 deaths (70·1–87·1) per 100 000 children. The diarrhoea mortality rate ranged between countries by over 685 deaths per 100 000 children. Diarrhoea mortality per 100 000 globally decreased by 69·6% (63·1–74·6) between 1990 and 2017. Among the risk factors considered in this study, those responsible for the largest declines in the diarrhoea mortality rate were reduction in exposure to unsafe sanitation (13·3% decrease, 11·2–15·5), childhood wasting (9·9% decrease, 9·6–10·2), and low use of oral rehydration solution (6·9% decrease, 4·8–8·4).
Diarrhoea mortality has declined substantially since 1990, although there are variations by country. Improvements in sociodemographic indicators might explain some of these trends, but changes in exposure to risk factors—particularly unsafe sanitation, childhood growth failure, and low use of oral rehydration solution—appear to be related to the relative and absolute rates of decline in diarrhoea mortality. Although the most effective interventions might vary by country or region, identifying and scaling up the interventions aimed at preventing and protecting against diarrhoea that have already reduced diarrhoea mortality could further avert many thousands of deaths due to this illness.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Despite large reductions in under-5 lower respiratory infection (LRI) mortality in many locations, the pace of progress for LRIs has generally lagged behind that of other childhood infectious ...diseases. To better inform programmes and policies focused on preventing and treating LRIs, we assessed the contributions and patterns of risk factor attribution, intervention coverage, and sociodemographic development in 195 countries and territories by drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) LRI estimates.
We used four strategies to model LRI burden: the mortality due to LRIs was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive ensemble modelling tool; the incidence of LRIs was modelled using population representative surveys, health-care utilisation data, and scientific literature in a compartmental meta-regression tool; the attribution of risk factors for LRI mortality was modelled in a counterfactual framework; and trends in LRI mortality were analysed applying changes in exposure to risk factors over time. In GBD, infectious disease mortality, including that due to LRI, is among HIV-negative individuals. We categorised locations based on their burden in 1990 to make comparisons in the changing burden between 1990 and 2017 and evaluate the relative percent change in mortality rate, incidence, and risk factor exposure to explain differences in the health loss associated with LRIs among children younger than 5 years.
In 2017, LRIs caused 808 920 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 747 286–873 591) in children younger than 5 years. Since 1990, there has been a substantial decrease in the number of deaths (from 2 337 538 to 808 920 deaths; 65·4% decrease, 61·5–68·5) and in mortality rate (from 362·7 deaths 330·1–392·0 per 100 000 children to 118·9 deaths 109·8–128·3 per 100 000 children; 67·2% decrease, 63·5–70·1). LRI incidence declined globally (32·4% decrease, 27·2–37·5). The percent change in under-5 mortality rate and incidence has varied across locations. Among the risk factors assessed in this study, those responsible for the greatest decrease in under-5 LRI mortality between 1990 and 2017 were increased coverage of vaccination against Haemophilus influenza type b (11·4% decrease, 0·0–24·5), increased pneumococcal vaccine coverage (6·3% decrease, 6·1–6·3), and reductions in household air pollution (8·4%, 6·8–9·2).
Our findings show that there have been substantial but uneven declines in LRI mortality among countries between 1990 and 2017. Although improvements in indicators of sociodemographic development could explain some of these trends, changes in exposure to modifiable risk factors are related to the rates of decline in LRI mortality. No single intervention would universally accelerate reductions in health loss associated with LRIs in all settings, but emphasising the most dominant risk factors, particularly in countries with high case fatality, can contribute to the reduction of preventable deaths.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Soil-transmitted helminth infections (STH) are associated with substantial morbidity in low-and-middle-income countries, accounting for 2.7 million disability-adjusted life years annually. Current ...World Health Organization guidelines recommend controlling STH-associated morbidity through periodic deworming of at-risk populations, including children and women of reproductive age (15-49 years). However, there is increasing interest in community-wide mass drug administration (cMDA) which includes deworming adults who serve as infection reservoirs as a method to improve coverage and possibly to interrupt STH transmission. We investigated determinants of cMDA coverage by comparing high-coverage clusters (HCCs) and low-coverage clusters (LCCs) receiving STH cMDA in three countries.
A convergent mixed-methods design was used to analyze data from HCCs and LCCs in DeWorm3 trial sites in Benin, India, and Malawi following three rounds of cMDA. Qualitative data were collected via 48 community-level focus group discussions. Quantitative data were collected via routine activities nested within the DeWorm3 trial, including annual censuses and coverage surveys. The Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) guided coding, theme development and a rating process to determine the influence of each CFIR construct on cMDA coverage.
Of 23 CFIR constructs evaluated, we identified 11 constructs that differentiated between HCCs and LCCs, indicating they are potential drivers of coverage. Determinants differentiating HCC and LCC include participant experiences with previous community-wide programs, communities' perceptions of directly observed therapy (DOT), perceptions about the treatment uptake behaviors of neighbors, and women's agency to make household-level treatment decisions.
The convergent mixed-methods study identified barriers and facilitators that may be useful to NTD programs to improve cMDA implementation for STH, increase treatment coverage, and contribute to the successful control or elimination of STH.
The parent trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03014167).
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The control of soil-transmitted helminths (STH) is achieved through mass drug administration (MDA) with deworming medications targeting children and other high-risk groups. Recent evidence suggests ...that it may be possible to interrupt STH transmission by deworming individuals of all ages via community-wide MDA (cMDA). However, a change in delivery platforms will require altering implementation processes.
We used process mapping, an operational research methodology, to describe the activities required for effective implementation of school-based and cMDA in 18 heterogenous areas and over three years in Benin, India, and Malawi. Planned activities were identified during workshops prior to initiation of a large cMDA trial (the DeWorm3 trial). The process maps were updated annually post-implementation, including adding or removing activities (e.g., adaptations) and determining whether activities occurred according to plan. Descriptive analyses were performed to quantify differences and similarities at baseline and over three implementation years. Comparative analyses were also conducted between study sites and areas implementing school-based vs. cMDA. Digitized process maps were developed to provide a visualization of MDA processes and inspected to identify implementation bottlenecks and inefficient activity flows.
Across three years and all clusters, implementation of cMDA required an average of 13 additional distinct activities and was adapted more often (5.2 adaptations per year) than school-based MDA. An average of 41% of activities across both MDA platforms did not occur according to planned timelines; however, deviations were often purposeful to improve implementation efficiency or effectiveness. Visualized process maps demonstrated that receipt of drugs at the local level may be an implementation bottleneck. Many activities rely on the effective setting of MDA dates and estimating quantity of drugs, suggesting that the timing of these activities is important to meet planned programmatic outcomes.
Implementation processes were heterogenous across settings, suggesting that MDA is highly context and resource dependent and that there are many viable ways to implement MDA. Process mapping could be deployed to support a transition from a school-based control program to community-wide STH transmission interruption program and potentially to enable integration with other community-based campaigns.
NCT03014167.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
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