Background: Forest, grassland peat fires release approximately 2 petagrams of carbon into the atmosphere each year, influencing weather, climate, and air quality. Objective: We estimated the annual ...global mortality attributable to landscape fire smoke (LFS). Methods: Daily and annual exposure to particulate matter < 2.5 pm in aerodynamic diameter (PM₂.₅) from fire emissions was estimated globally for 1997 through 2006 by combining outputs from a chemical transport model with satellite-based observations of aerosol optical depth. In World Health Organization (WHO) subregions classified as sporadically affected, the daily burden of mortality was estimated using previously published concentration—response coefficients for the association between short-term elevations in PM₂.₅ from LFS (contrasted with 0 ug/m³ from LFS) and all-cause mortality. In subregions classified as chronically affected, the annual burden of mortality was estimated using the American Cancer Society study coefficient for the association between longterm PM₂.₅ exposure and all-cause mortality. The annual average PM₂.₅ estimates were contrasted with theoretical minimum (counterfactual) concentrations in each chronically affected subregion.Sensitivity of mortality estimates to different exposure assessments, counterfactual estimates, and concentration—response functions was evaluated. Strong La Niña and El Niño years were compared to assess the influence of interannual climatic variability. Results: Our principal estimate for the average mortality attributable to LFS exposure was 339,000 deaths annually. In sensitivity analyses the interquartile range of all tested estimates was 260,000-600,000. The regions most affected were sub-Saharan Africa (157,000) and Southeast Asia (110,000). Estimated annual mortality during La Niña was 262,000, compared with 532,000 during El Niño. Conclusions: Fire emissions are an important contributor to global mortality. Adverse health outcomes associated with LFS could be substantially reduced by curtailing burning of tropical rainforests, which rarely burn naturally. The large estimated influence of El Niño suggests a relationship between climate and the burden of mortality attributable to LFS.
Ecology Letters (2012) 15: 748–758
Forest and savanna biomes dominate the tropics, yet factors controlling their distribution remain poorly understood. Climate is clearly important, but extensive ...savannas in some high rainfall areas suggest a decoupling of climate and vegetation. In some situations edaphic factors are important, with forest often associated with high nutrient availability. Fire also plays a key role in limiting forest, with fire exclusion often causing a switch from savanna to forest. These observations can be captured by a broad conceptual model with two components: (1) forest and savanna are alternative stable states, maintained by tree cover‐fire feedbacks, (2) the interaction between tree growth rates and fire frequency limits forest development; any factor that increases growth (e.g. elevated availability of water, nutrients, CO2), or decreases fire frequency, will favour canopy closure. This model is consistent with the range of environmental variables correlated with forest distribution, and with the current trend of forest expansion, likely driven by increasing CO2 concentrations. Resolving the drivers of forest and savanna distribution has moved beyond simple correlative studies that are unlikely to establish ultimate causation. Experiments using Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, parameterised with measurements from each continent, provide an important tool for understanding the controls of these systems.
Motivated by the urgent need to understand how water stress-induced embolism limits the survival and recovery of plants during drought, the linkage between water-stress tolerance and xylem cavitation ...resistance was examined in one of the world's most drought resistant conifer genera, Callitris. Four species were subjected to drought treatments of -5, -8 and -10 MPa for a period of 3-4 wk, after which plants were rewatered. Transpiration, basal growth and leaf water potential were monitored during and after drought. Lethal water potential was correlated with the tension producing a 50% loss of stem hydraulic conductivity. The most resilient species suffered minimal embolism and recovered gas exchange within days of rewatering from -10 MPa, while the most sensitive species suffered major embolism and recovered very slowly. The rate of repair of water transport in the latter case was equal to the rate of basal area growth, indicating xylem reiteration as the primary means of hydraulic repair. The survival of, and recovery from, water stress in Callitris are accurately predicted by the physiology of the stem water-transport system. As the only apparent means of xylem repair after embolism, basal area growth is a critical part of this equation.
The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth Bowman, David M. J. S.; Balch, Jennifer; Artaxo, Paulo ...
Journal of biogeography,
December 2011, Letnik:
38, Številka:
12
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Humans and their ancestors are unique in being a fire-making species, but 'natural' (i.e. independent of humans) fires have an ancient, geological history on Earth. Natural fires have influenced ...biological evolution and global biogeochemical cycles, making fire integral to the functioning of some biomes. Globally, debate rages about the impact on ecosystems of prehistoric human-set fires, with views ranging from catastrophic to negligible. Understanding of the diversity of human fire regimes on Earth in the past, present and future remains rudimentary. It remains uncertain how humans have caused a departure from ' natural' background levels that vary with climate change. Available evidence shows that modern humans can increase or decrease background levels of natural fire activity by clearing forests, promoting grazing, dispersing plants, altering ignition patterns and actively suppressing fires, thereby causing substantial ecosystem changes and loss of biodiversity. Some of these contemporary fire regimes cause substantial economic disruptions owing to the destruction of infrastructure, degradation of ecosystem services, loss of life, and smoke-related health effects. These episodic disasters help frame negative public attitudes towards landscape fires, despite the need for burning to sustain some ecosystems. Greenhouse gas-induced warming and changes in the hydrological cycle may increase the occurrence of large, severe fires, with potentially significant feedbacks to the Earth system. Improved understanding of human fire regimes demands: (1 ) better data on past and current human influences on fire regimes to enable global comparative analyses, (2) a greater understanding of different cultural traditions of landscape burning and their positive and negative social, economic and ecological effects, and (3) more realistic representations of anthropogenic fire in global vegetation and climate change models. We provide an historical framework to promote understanding of the development and diversification of fire regimes, covering the pre-human period, human domestication of fire, and the subsequent transition from subsistence agriculture to industrial economies. All of these phases still occur on Earth, providing opportunities for comparative research.
There is mounting concern that global wildfire activity is shifting in frequency, intensity, and seasonality in response to climate change. Fuel moisture provides a powerful means of detecting ...changing fire potential. Here, we use global burned area, weather reanalysis data, and the Canadian fire weather index system to calculate fuel moisture trends for multiscale biogeographic regions across a gradient in vegetation productivity. We quantify the proportion of days in the local fire season between 1979 and 2019, where fuel moisture content is below a critical threshold indicating extreme fire potential. We then associate fuel moisture trends over that period to vegetation productivity and comment on its implications for projected anthropogenic climate change. Overall, there is a strong drying trend across realms, biomes, and the productivity gradient. Even where a wetting trend is observed, this often indicates a trend toward increasing fire activity due to an expected increase in fuel production. The detected trends across the productivity gradient lead us to conclude global fire activity will increase with anthropogenic climate change.
The last 40 years have seen a strong drying trend across wildfire fuels worldwide. Even where a wetting trend is observed, this often indicates a trend toward increasing fire activity due to an expected increase in fuel production. These detected trends lead us to conclude global fire activity will increase with anthropogenic climate change.
Obligate seeder trees requiring high‐severity fires to regenerate may be vulnerable to population collapse if fire frequency increases abruptly. We tested this proposition using a long‐lived obligate ...seeding forest tree, alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis), in the Australian Alps. Since 2002, 85% of the Alps bioregion has been burnt by several very large fires, tracking the regional trend of more frequent extreme fire weather. High‐severity fires removed 25% of aboveground tree biomass, and switched fuel arrays from low loads of herbaceous and litter fuels to high loads of flammable shrubs and juvenile trees, priming regenerating stands for subsequent fires. Single high‐severity fires caused adult mortality and triggered mass regeneration, but a second fire in quick succession killed 97% of the regenerating alpine ash. Our results indicate that without interventions to reduce fire severity, interactions between flammability of regenerating stands and increased extreme fire weather will eliminate much of the remaining mature alpine ash forest.
Fire in the Earth System Bowman, David M.J.S; Balch, Jennifer K; Artaxo, Paulo ...
Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science),
04/2009, Letnik:
324, Številka:
5926
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Fire is a worldwide phenomenon that appears in the geological record soon after the appearance of terrestrial plants. Fire influences global ecosystem patterns and processes, including vegetation ...distribution and structure, the carbon cycle, and climate. Although humans and fire have always coexisted, our capacity to manage fire remains imperfect and may become more difficult in the future as climate change alters fire regimes. This risk is difficult to assess, however, because fires are still poorly represented in global models. Here, we discuss some of the most important issues involved in developing a better understanding of the role of fire in the Earth system.
Climate strongly influences global wildfire activity, and recent wildfire surges may signal fire weather-induced pyrogeographic shifts. Here we use three daily global climate data sets and three fire ...danger indices to develop a simple annual metric of fire weather season length, and map spatio-temporal trends from 1979 to 2013. We show that fire weather seasons have lengthened across 29.6 million km(2) (25.3%) of the Earth's vegetated surface, resulting in an 18.7% increase in global mean fire weather season length. We also show a doubling (108.1% increase) of global burnable area affected by long fire weather seasons (>1.0 σ above the historical mean) and an increased global frequency of long fire weather seasons across 62.4 million km(2) (53.4%) during the second half of the study period. If these fire weather changes are coupled with ignition sources and available fuel, they could markedly impact global ecosystems, societies, economies and climate.
Over the Austral spring and summer of 2019/20 > 7 million ha of Eucalyptus forest and woodland, including some of Australia's most carbon dense ecosystems, were burnt on the east coast of Australia. ...We estimated bootstrapped mean CO2 emissions of c. 0.67 Pg, with other available estimates ranging from 0.55 to 0.85 Pg. Eucalyptus forests are renowned for their ability to resist and recover from wildfire so it would be expected that emitted CO2 will be reabsorbed. The combination of drought and frequent fires is likely reducing the capacity to recover from the fire so future Australian forests may store less carbon. Broadscale prescribed burning is a widely promoted approach to reduce uncontrolled wildfires, yet the benefits for the management of carbon stores are controversial. Prescribed burning can reduce carbon losses from subsequent wildfire, yet the “carbon costs” of it may equal or outweigh the “carbon benefits” in reduced wildfire emissions. Likewise, mechanical thinning of vegetation to reduce fuel loads also carries heavy carbon costs with uncertain carbon benefits. Research involving empirical measurements, modelling and a mix of large‐scale management intervention is urgently required to determine what interventions can maximise carbon storage in the face of climate change‐driven fires.
In this Invited Review, we briefly describe the geographic scale of the 2019/20 Australian Black Summer Fires and undertake a quasi‐estimate of CO2 emissions from these fires. Although it is assumed the CO2 will be reabsorbed by post‐fire regrowth, we review evidence that this may not be the case because of climate change. We consider possible management interventions to reduce carbon losses from fires and reflect on the carbon costs and benefits of these management approaches. We conclude by highlighting the need for a much better understanding of fire‐driven carbon dynamics in Australian Eucalyptus forests to underpin future management.
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