To determine the 12-year risk of developing an ipsilateral breast event (IBE) for women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast treated with surgical excision (lumpectomy) without ...radiation.
A prospective clinical trial was performed for women with DCIS who were selected for low-risk clinical and pathologic characteristics. Patients were enrolled onto one of two study cohorts (not randomly assigned): cohort 1: low- or intermediate-grade DCIS, tumor size 2.5 cm or smaller (n = 561); or cohort 2: high-grade DCIS, tumor size 1 cm or smaller (n = 104). Protocol specifications included excision of the DCIS tumor with a minimum negative margin width of at least 3 mm. Tamoxifen (not randomly assigned) was given to 30% of the patients. An IBE was defined as local recurrence of DCIS or invasive carcinoma in the treated breast. Median follow-up time was 12.3 years.
There were 99 IBEs, of which 51 (52%) were invasive. The IBE and invasive IBE rates increased over time in both cohorts. The 12-year rates of developing an IBE were 14.4% for cohort 1 and 24.6% for cohort 2 (P = .003). The 12-year rates of developing an invasive IBE were 7.5% and 13.4%, respectively (P = .08). On multivariable analysis, study cohort and tumor size were both significantly associated with developing an IBE (P = .009 and P = .03, respectively).
For patients with DCIS selected for favorable clinical and pathologic characteristics and treated with excision without radiation, the risks of developing an IBE and an invasive IBE increased through 12 years of follow-up, without plateau. These data help inform the treatment decision-making process for patients and their physicians.
For women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast, the risk of developing an ipsilateral breast event (IBE; defined as local recurrence of DCIS or invasive carcinoma) after surgical ...excision without radiation is not well defined by clinical and pathologic characteristics.
The Oncotype DX breast cancer assay was performed for patients with DCIS treated with surgical excision without radiation in the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) E5194 study. The association of the prospectively defined DCIS Score (calculated from seven cancer-related genes and five reference genes) with the risk of developing an IBE was analyzed using Cox regression. All statistical tests were two-sided.
There were 327 patients with adequate tissue for analysis. The continuous DCIS Score was statistically significantly associated with the risk of developing an IBE (hazard ratio HR = 2.31, 95% confidence interval CI = 1.15 to 4.49; P = .02) when adjusted for tamoxifen use (prespecified primary analysis) and with invasive IBE (unadjusted HR = 3.68, 95% CI = 1.34 to 9.62; P = .01). For the prespecified DCIS risk groups of low, intermediate, and high, the 10-year risks of developing an IBE were 10.6%, 26.7%, and 25.9%, respectively, and for an invasive IBE, 3.7%, 12.3%, and 19.2%, respectively (both log rank P ≤ .006). In multivariable analyses, factors associated with IBE risk were DCIS Score, tumor size, and menopausal status (all P ≤ .02).
The DCIS Score quantifies IBE risk and invasive IBE risk, complements traditional clinical and pathologic factors, and provides a new clinical tool to improve selecting individualized treatment for women with DCIS who meet the ECOG E5194 criteria.
Abstract Background Prostate tumor heterogeneity and biopsy undersampling pose challenges to accurate, individualized risk assessment for men with localized disease. Objective To identify and ...validate a biopsy-based gene expression signature that predicts clinical recurrence, prostate cancer (PCa) death, and adverse pathology. Design, setting, and participants Gene expression was quantified by reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction for three studies—a discovery prostatectomy study ( n = 441), a biopsy study ( n = 167), and a prospectively designed, independent clinical validation study ( n = 395)—testing retrospectively collected needle biopsies from contemporary (1997–2011) patients with low to intermediate clinical risk who were candidates for active surveillance (AS). Outcome measures and statistical analysis The main outcome measures defining aggressive PCa were clinical recurrence, PCa death, and adverse pathology at prostatectomy. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to evaluate the association between gene expression and time to event end points. Results from the prostatectomy and biopsy studies were used to develop and lock a multigene-expression-based signature, called the Genomic Prostate Score (GPS); in the validation study, logistic regression was used to test the association between the GPS and pathologic stage and grade at prostatectomy. Decision-curve analysis and risk profiles were used together with clinical and pathologic characteristics to evaluate clinical utility. Results and limitations Of the 732 candidate genes analyzed, 288 (39%) were found to predict clinical recurrence despite heterogeneity and multifocality, and 198 (27%) were predictive of aggressive disease after adjustment for prostate-specific antigen, Gleason score, and clinical stage. Further analysis identified 17 genes representing multiple biological pathways that were combined into the GPS algorithm. In the validation study, GPS predicted high-grade (odds ratio OR per 20 GPS units: 2.3; 95% confidence interval CI, 1.5–3.7; p < 0.001) and high-stage (OR per 20 GPS units: 1.9; 95% CI, 1.3–3.0; p = 0.003) at surgical pathology. GPS predicted high-grade and/or high-stage disease after controlling for established clinical factors ( p < 0.005) such as an OR of 2.1 (95% CI, 1.4–3.2) when adjusting for Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment score. A limitation of the validation study was the inclusion of men with low-volume intermediate-risk PCa (Gleason score 3 + 4), for whom some providers would not consider AS. Conclusions Genes representing multiple biological pathways discriminate PCa aggressiveness in biopsy tissue despite tumor heterogeneity, multifocality, and limited sampling at time of biopsy. The biopsy-based 17-gene GPS improves prediction of the presence or absence of adverse pathology and may help men with PCa make more informed decisions between AS and immediate treatment. Patient summary Prostate cancer (PCa) is often present in multiple locations within the prostate and has variable characteristics. We identified genes with expression associated with aggressive PCa to develop a biopsy-based, multigene signature, the Genomic Prostate Score (GPS). GPS was validated for its ability to predict men who have high-grade or high-stage PCa at diagnosis and may help men diagnosed with PCa decide between active surveillance and immediate definitive treatment.
Summary Background The 21-gene recurrence score assay is prognostic for women with node-negative, oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer treated with tamoxifen. A low recurrence score predicts ...little benefit of chemotherapy. For node-positive breast cancer, we investigated whether the recurrence score was prognostic in women treated with tamoxifen alone and whether it identified those who might not benefit from anthracycline-based chemotherapy, despite higher risks of recurrence. Methods The phase 3 trial SWOG-8814 for postmenopausal women with node-positive, oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer showed that chemotherapy with cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, and fluorouracil (CAF) before tamoxifen (CAF-T) added survival benefit to treatment with tamoxifen alone. Optional tumour banking yielded specimens for determination of recurrence score by RT-PCR. In this retrospective analysis, we assessed the effect of recurrence score on disease-free survival by treatment group (tamoxifen vs CAF-T) using Cox regression, adjusting for number of positive nodes. Findings There were 367 specimens (40% of the 927 patients in the tamoxifen and CAF-T groups) with sufficient RNA for analysis (tamoxifen, n=148; CAF-T, n=219). The recurrence score was prognostic in the tamoxifen-alone group (p=0·006; hazard ratio HR 2·64, 95% CI 1·33–5·27, for a 50-point difference in recurrence score). There was no benefit of CAF in patients with a low recurrence score (score <18; log-rank p=0·97; HR 1·02, 0·54–1·93), but an improvement in disease-free survival for those with a high recurrence score (score ≥31; log-rank p=0·033; HR 0·59, 0·35–1·01), after adjustment for number of positive nodes. The recurrence score by treatment interaction was significant in the first 5 years (p=0·029), with no additional prediction beyond 5 years (p=0·58), although the cumulative benefit remained at 10 years. Results were similar for overall survival and breast-cancer-specific survival. Interpretation The recurrence score is prognostic for tamoxifen-treated patients with positive nodes and predicts significant benefit of CAF in tumours with a high recurrence score. A low recurrence score identifies women who might not benefit from anthracycline-based chemotherapy, despite positive nodes. Funding National Cancer Institute and Genomic Health.
PURPOSE To determine whether the Recurrence Score (RS) provided independent information on risk of distant recurrence (DR) in the tamoxifen and anastrozole arms of the Arimidex, Tamoxifen, Alone or ...in Combination (ATAC) Trial. PATIENTS AND METHODS RNA was extracted from 1,372 tumor blocks from postmenopausal patients with hormone receptor-positive primary breast cancer in the monotherapy arms of ATAC. Twenty-one genes were assessed by quantitative reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction, and the RS was calculated. Cox proportional hazards models assessed the value of adding RS to a model with clinical variables (age, tumor size, grade, and treatment) in node-negative (N0) and node-positive (N+) women. RESULTS Reportable scores were available from 1,231 evaluable patients (N0, n = 872; N+, n = 306; and node status unknown, n = 53); 72, 74, and six DRs occurred in N0, N+, and node status unknown patients, respectively. For both N0 and N+ patients, RS was significantly associated with time to DR in multivariate analyses (P < .001 for N0 and P = .002 for N+). RS also showed significant prognostic value beyond that provided by Adjuvant! Online (P < .001). Nine-year DR rates in low (RS < 18), intermediate (RS = 18 to 30), and high RS (RS > or = 31) groups were 4%, 12%, and 25%, respectively, in N0 patients and 17%, 28%, and 49%, respectively, in N+ patients. The prognostic value of RS was similar in anastrozole- and tamoxifen-treated patients. CONCLUSION This study confirmed the performance of RS in postmenopausal HR+ patients treated with tamoxifen in a large contemporary population and demonstrated that RS is an independent predictor of DR in N0 and N+ hormone receptor-positive patients treated with anastrozole, adding value to estimates with standard clinicopathologic features.
PURPOSEThe Oncotype DX Recurrence Score (RS), Prosigna Prediction Analysis of Microarray 50 (PAM50) Risk of Recurrence (ROR), EndoPredict (EP), and Breast Cancer Index (BCI) are used clinically for ...estimating risk of distant recurrence for patients receiving endocrine therapy. Discordances in estimates occur between them. We aimed to identify the molecular features that drive the tests and lead to these differences.PATIENTS AND METHODSAnalyses for RS, ROR, EP, and BCI were conducted by the manufacturers in the TransATAC sample collection that consisted of the tamoxifen or anastrozole arms of the ATAC trial. Estrogen receptor-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative cases without chemotherapy treatment were included in which all four tests were available (n = 785). Clinicopathologic features included in some tests were excluded from the comparisons. Estrogen, proliferation, invasion, and HER2 module scores from RS were used to characterize the respective molecular features. Spearman correlation and analysis of variance tests were applied.RESULTSThere were moderate to strong correlations among the four molecular scores (ρ = 0.63-0.74) except for RS versus ROR (ρ = 0.32) and RS versus BCI (ρ = 0.35). RS had strong negative correlation with its estrogen module (ρ = -0.79) and moderate positive correlation with its proliferation module (ρ = 0.36). RS's proliferation module explained 72.5% of ROR's variance, while the estrogen module explained only 0.6%. Most of EP's and BCI's variation was accounted for by the proliferation module (50.0% and 54.3%, respectively) and much less by the estrogen module (20.2% and 2.7%, respectively).CONCLUSIONIn contrast to common understanding, RSs are determined more strongly by estrogen-related features and only weakly by proliferation markers. However, the EP, BCI, and particularly ROR scores are determined largely by proliferative features. These relationships help to explain the differences in the prognostic performance of the tests.
We developed quantitative gene expression assays to assess recurrence risk and benefits from chemotherapy in patients with stage II colon cancer.
We sought validation by using RNA extracted from ...fixed paraffin-embedded primary colon tumor blocks from 1,436 patients with stage II colon cancer in the QUASAR (Quick and Simple and Reliable) study of adjuvant fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy versus surgery alone. A recurrence score (RS) and a treatment score (TS) were calculated from gene expression levels of 13 cancer-related genes (n = 7 recurrence genes and n = 6 treatment benefit genes) and from five reference genes with prespecified algorithms. Cox proportional hazards regression models and log-rank methods were used to analyze the relationship between the RS and risk of recurrence in patients treated with surgery alone and between TS and benefits of chemotherapy.
Risk of recurrence was significantly associated with RS (hazard ratio HR per interquartile range, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.74; P = .004). Recurrence risks at 3 years were 12%, 18%, and 22% for predefined low, intermediate, and high recurrence risk groups, respectively. T stage (HR, 1.94; P < .001) and mismatch repair (MMR) status (HR, 0.31; P < .001) were the strongest histopathologic prognostic factors. The continuous RS was associated with risk of recurrence (P = .006) beyond these and other covariates. There was no trend for increased benefit from chemotherapy at higher TS (P = .95).
The continuous 12-gene RS has been validated in a prospective study for assessment of recurrence risk in patients with stage II colon cancer after surgery and provides prognostic value that complements T stage and MMR. The TS was not predictive of chemotherapy benefit.
A polymerase-chain-reaction assay of 21 genes performed on paraffin-embedded samples from women with node-negative, estrogen-receptor–positive breast cancer was the basis for calculating a score for ...the risk of distant recurrence. The difference in risk between women with low and high recurrence scores was significant. The recurrence score also predicted overall survival.
An assay of 21 genes was the basis for calculating the risk of distant recurrence. The difference in risk between women with low and high recurrence scores was significant.
Over the past two decades, the molecular dissection of cancer has increased our understanding of the pathways that are altered in neoplastic cells.
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Nevertheless, the diagnosis of cancer and decisions about its treatment still rely largely on classic histopathological and immunohistochemical techniques. A more quantitative approach to diagnosis and rational individualization of treatment are needed.
Large clinical trials, such as National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project (NSABP) trials B-14 and B-20, have demonstrated the benefit of tamoxifen and chemotherapy in women who have node-negative, estrogen-receptor–positive breast cancer.
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However, since the likelihood of distant recurrence in patients treated . . .
The 21-gene recurrence score (RS) assay quantifies the likelihood of distant recurrence in women with estrogen receptor-positive, lymph node-negative breast cancer treated with adjuvant tamoxifen. ...The relationship between the RS and chemotherapy benefit is not known.
The RS was measured in tumors from the tamoxifen-treated and tamoxifen plus chemotherapy-treated patients in the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project (NSABP) B20 trial. Cox proportional hazards models were utilized to test for interaction between chemotherapy treatment and the RS.
A total of 651 patients were assessable (227 randomly assigned to tamoxifen and 424 randomly assigned to tamoxifen plus chemotherapy). The test for interaction between chemotherapy treatment and RS was statistically significant (P = .038). Patients with high-RS (> or = 31) tumors (ie, high risk of recurrence) had a large benefit from chemotherapy (relative risk, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.13 to 0.53; absolute decrease in 10-year distant recurrence rate: mean, 27.6%; SE, 8.0%). Patients with low-RS (< 18) tumors derived minimal, if any, benefit from chemotherapy treatment (relative risk, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.46 to 3.78; absolute decrease in distant recurrence rate at 10 years: mean, -1.1%; SE, 2.2%). Patients with intermediate-RS tumors did not appear to have a large benefit, but the uncertainty in the estimate can not exclude a clinically important benefit.
The RS assay not only quantifies the likelihood of breast cancer recurrence in women with node-negative, estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer, but also predicts the magnitude of chemotherapy benefit.
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