Sudden Stratospheric Warmings Baldwin, Mark P.; Ayarzagüena, Blanca; Birner, Thomas ...
Reviews of geophysics,
March 2021, Letnik:
59, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are impressive fluid dynamical events in which large and rapid temperature increases in the winter polar stratosphere (∼10–50 km) are associated with a complete ...reversal of the climatological wintertime westerly winds. SSWs are caused by the breaking of planetary‐scale waves that propagate upwards from the troposphere. During an SSW, the polar vortex breaks down, accompanied by rapid descent and warming of air in polar latitudes, mirrored by ascent and cooling above the warming. The rapid warming and descent of the polar air column affect tropospheric weather, shifting jet streams, storm tracks, and the Northern Annular Mode, making cold air outbreaks over North America and Eurasia more likely. SSWs affect the atmosphere above the stratosphere, producing widespread effects on atmospheric chemistry, temperatures, winds, neutral (nonionized) particles and electron densities, and electric fields. These effects span both hemispheres. Given their crucial role in the whole atmosphere, SSWs are also seen as a key process to analyze in climate change studies and subseasonal to seasonal prediction. This work reviews the current knowledge on the most important aspects of SSWs, from the historical background to dynamical processes, modeling, chemistry, and impact on other atmospheric layers.
Plain Language Summary
The stratosphere is the layer of the atmosphere from ∼10 to 50 km, with pressures decreasing to ∼1 hPa (0.1% of surface pressure) at the top. The polar stratosphere during winter is normally very cold, with strong westerly winds. Roughly every 2 years in the Northern Hemisphere, the quiescent vortex suddenly warms over a week or two, and the winds slow dramatically, resulting in easterly winds that are more similar to the summer. These events, known as sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), were discovered in the early 1950s, and today, they are observed in detail by satellites. After several decades researching SSWs, considerable progress has been made in dynamical aspects of SSWs, but our understanding of how they affect both surface weather and the upper atmosphere is incomplete. We observe that variability of the stratospheric circulation (SSWs being an extreme event) is associated with shifts in the jet stream and the paths of storms, with associated effects on rainfall and temperatures. The likelihood of cold weather spells and damaging wind storms is also affected. Almost all SSWs have occurred in the Northern Hemisphere, but there was one spectacular major SSW in 2002 in the Southern Hemisphere.
Key Points
Sudden stratospheric warmings are dramatic events of the polar stratosphere that affect the atmosphere from the surface to the thermosphere
Our understanding of sudden stratospheric warmings has accelerated recently, particularly the predictability of surface weather effects
More observations, improved climate models, and big data methods will address uncertainties in key aspects of sudden stratospheric warmings
It is well established that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts the North Atlantic–European (NAE) climate, with the strongest influence in winter. In late winter, the ENSO signal travels via ...both tropospheric and stratospheric pathways to the NAE sector and often projects onto the North Atlantic Oscillation. However, this signal does not strengthen gradually during winter, and some studies have suggested that the ENSO signal is different between early and late winter and that the teleconnections involved in the early winter subperiod are not well understood. In this study, we investigate the ENSO teleconnection to NAE in early winter (November–December) and characterize the possible mechanisms involved in that teleconnection. To do so, observations, reanalysis data and the output of different types of model simulations have been used. We show that the intraseasonal winter shift of the NAE response to ENSO is detected for both El Niño and La Niña and is significant in both observations and initialized predictions, but it is not reproduced by free-running Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models. The teleconnection is established through the troposphere in early winter and is related to ENSO effects over the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea that appear in rainfall and reach the NAE region. CMIP5 model biases in equatorial Pacific ENSO sea surface temperature patterns and strength appear to explain the lack of signal in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea and, hence, their inability to reproduce the intraseasonal shift of the ENSO signal over Europe.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Observations show that large variations in the strength of the stratospheric circulation, appearing first above ∼50 kilometers, descend to the lowermost stratosphere and are followed by anomalous ...tropospheric weather regimes. During the 60 days after the onset of these events, average surface pressure maps resemble closely the Arctic Oscillation pattern. These stratospheric events also precede shifts in the probability distributions of extreme values of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, the location of storm tracks, and the local likelihood of mid-latitude storms. Our observations suggest that these stratospheric harbingers may be used as a predictor of tropospheric weather regimes.
Astrong link exists between stratospheric variability and anomalous weather patterns at the earth’s surface. Specifically, during extreme variability of the Arctic polar vortex termed a “weak vortex ...event,” anomalies can descend from the upper stratosphere to the surface on time scales of weeks. Subsequently the outbreak of cold-air events have been noted in high northern latitudes, as well as a quadrupole pattern in surface temperature over the Atlantic and western European sectors, but it is currently not understood why certain events descend to the surface while others do not. This study compares a new classification technique of weak vortex events, based on the distribution of potential vorticity, with that of an existing technique and demonstrates that the subdivision of such events into vortex displacements and vortex splits has important implications for tropospheric weather patterns on weekly to monthly time scales. Using reanalysis data it is found that vortex splitting events are correlated with surface weather and lead to positive temperature anomalies over eastern North America of more than 1.5 K, and negative anomalies over Eurasia of up to −3 K. Associated with this is an increase in high-latitude blocking in both the Atlantic and Pacific sectors and a decrease in European blocking. The corresponding signals are weaker during displacement events, although ultimately they are shown to be related to cold-air outbreaks over North America. Because of the importance of stratosphere–troposphere coupling for seasonal climate predictability, identifying the type of stratospheric variability in order to capture the correct surface response will be necessary.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Long-range prediction and the stratosphere Scaife, Adam A; Baldwin, Mark P; Butler, Amy H ...
Atmospheric chemistry and physics,
02/2022, Letnik:
22, Številka:
4
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Over recent years there have been concomitant advances in the
development of stratosphere-resolving numerical models, our understanding of
stratosphere–troposphere interaction, and the extension of ...long-range
forecasts to explicitly include the stratosphere. These advances are now
allowing for new and improved capability in long-range prediction. We present an
overview of this development and show how the inclusion of the stratosphere
in forecast systems aids monthly, seasonal, and annual-to-decadal climate
predictions and multidecadal projections. We end with an outlook towards the
future and identify areas of improvement that could further benefit these
rapidly evolving predictions.
PepT1 and PepT2 are major facilitator superfamily (MFS) transporters that utilize a proton gradient to drive the uptake of di‐ and tri‐peptides in the small intestine and kidney, respectively. They ...are the major routes by which we absorb dietary nitrogen and many orally administered drugs. Here, we present the crystal structure of PepTSo, a functionally similar prokaryotic homologue of the mammalian peptide transporters from Shewanella oneidensis. This structure, refined using data up to 3.6 Å resolution, reveals a ligand‐bound occluded state for the MFS and provides new insights into a general transport mechanism. We have located the peptide‐binding site in a central hydrophilic cavity, which occludes a bound ligand from both sides of the membrane. Residues thought to be involved in proton coupling have also been identified near the extracellular gate of the cavity. Based on these findings and associated kinetic data, we propose that PepTSo represents a sound model system for understanding mammalian peptide transport as catalysed by PepT1 and PepT2.
This study presents the crystal structure of a prokaryotic oligopeptide–proton symporter, homologous to mammalian peptide transporters, giving insights into the molecular mechanism by which this important family of proteins act.
ABSTRACT We present very long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations of the hyperactive repeating FRB 20220912A using the European VLBI Network (EVN) outside of regular observing sessions ...(EVN-Lite). We detected 150 bursts from FRB 20220912A over two observing epochs in 2022 October. Combining the burst data allows us to localize FRB 20220912A to a precision of a few milliarcseconds, corresponding to a transverse scale of less than 10 pc at the distance of the source. This precise localization shows that FRB 20220912A lies closer to the centre of its host galaxy than previously found, although still significantly offset from the host galaxy’s nucleus. On arcsecond scales, FRB 20220912A is coincident with a persistent continuum radio source known from archival observations; however, we find no compact persistent emission on milliarcsecond scales. The 5σ upper limit on the presence of such a compact persistent radio source is 120 μJy, corresponding to a luminosity limit of (D/362.4 Mpc)$^2\, 1.8\times 10^{28}$erg s−1 Hz−1. The persistent radio emission is thus likely to be from star formation in the host galaxy. This is in contrast to some other active FRBs, such as FRB 20121102A and FRB 20190520B.
We use an empirical statistical model to demonstrate significant skill in making extended-range forecasts of the monthly-mean Arctic Oscillation (AO). Forecast skill derives from persistent ...circulation anomalies in the lowermost stratosphere and is greatest during boreal winter. A comparison to the Southern Hemisphere provides evidence that both the time scale and predictability of the AO depend on the presence of persistent circulation anomalies just above the tropopause. These circulation anomalies most likely affect the troposphere through changes to waves in the upper troposphere, which induce surface pressure changes that correspond to the AO.
We describe the main differences in simulations of stratospheric climate and variability by models within the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that have a model top above the ...stratopause and relatively fine stratospheric vertical resolution (high‐top), and those that have a model top below the stratopause (low‐top). Although the simulation of mean stratospheric climate by the two model ensembles is similar, the low‐top model ensemble has very weak stratospheric variability on daily and interannual time scales. The frequency of major sudden stratospheric warming events is strongly underestimated by the low‐top models with less than half the frequency of events observed in the reanalysis data and high‐top models. The lack of stratospheric variability in the low‐top models affects their stratosphere‐troposphere coupling, resulting in short‐lived anomalies in the Northern Annular Mode, which do not produce long‐lasting tropospheric impacts, as seen in observations. The lack of stratospheric variability, however, does not appear to have any impact on the ability of the low‐top models to reproduce past stratospheric temperature trends. We find little improvement in the simulation of decadal variability for the high‐top models compared to the low‐top, which is likely related to the fact that neither ensemble produces a realistic dynamical response to volcanic eruptions.
Keypoints
We assess and compare the performance of CMIP5 models in the stratosphere.Low‐top models lack stratospheric variability.Stratosphere‐troposphere coupling is hence weaker in low‐top models.
PDF
