Although the prevalence of head injury is estimated to be high in juveniles in prison, the extent of persisting disability is unknown and relationships with offending uncertain. This limited ...understanding makes it difficult to develop effective management strategies and interventions to improve health or reduce recidivism. This study investigates effects of significant head injury (SHI) on cognitive function, disability and offending in juvenile prisoners, and considers relationships with common comorbidities.
This cross-sectional study recruited male juvenile prisoners in Scotland from Her Majesty's Young Offenders Institute (HMYOI) Polmont (detaining approximately 305 of 310 male juveniles in prison in Scotland). To be included juveniles had to be 16 years or older, fluent in English, able to participate in assessment, provide informed consent and not have a severe acute disorder of cognition or communication. Head injury, cognition, disability, history of abuse, mental health and problematic substance use were assessed by interview and questionnaire.
We recruited 103 (34%) of 305 juvenile males in HMYOI Polmont. The sample was demographically representative of juvenile males in prisons for young offenders in Scotland. SHI was found in 82/103 (80%) and head injury repeated over long periods of time in 69/82 (85%). Disability was associated with SHI in 11/82 (13%) and was significantly associated with mental health problems, particularly anxiety. Group differences on cognitive tests were not found. However the SHI group reported poorer behavioural control on the Dysexecutive Questionnaire and were more often reported for incidents in prison than those without SHI. Characteristics of offending, including violence, did not differ between groups.
Although SHI is highly prevalent in juvenile prisoners, associated disability was relatively uncommon. There was no evidence for differences in cognitive test performance or offending in juveniles with and without SHI. However, signs of poorer behavioural control and greater psychological distress in juveniles with SHI suggest that they may be at greater risk of recidivism and of potentially becoming lifelong offenders. This implies a need for remedial programmes for juvenile prisoners to take account of persisting effects of SHI on mental health and self-control and education and to improve their understanding of the effects of SHI reduce the likelihood of cumulative effects from further SHI.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Routinely collected electronic patient records are already widely used in epidemiological research. In this work we investigated the potential for using them to identify endpoints in clinical trials.
...The events recorded in the West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study (WOSCOPS), a large clinical trial of pravastatin in middle-aged hypercholesterolaemic men in the 1990s, were compared with those in the record-linked deaths and hospitalisations records routinely collected in Scotland.
We matched 99% of fatal study events by date. We showed excellent matching (97%) of the causes of fatal endpoint events and good matching (>80% for first events) of the causes of nonfatal endpoint events with a slightly lower rate of mismatching of record linkage than study events (19% of first study myocardial infarctions (MI) and 4% of first record linkage MIs not matched as MI). We also investigated the matching of non-endpoint events and showed a good level of matching, with >78% of first stroke/TIA events being matched as stroke/TIA. The primary reasons for mismatches were record linkage data recording readmissions for procedures or previous events, differences between the diagnoses in the routinely collected data and the conclusions of the clinical trial expert adjudication committee, events occurring outside Scotland and therefore being missed by record linkage data, miscoding of cardiac events in hospitalisations data as 'unspecified chest pain', some general miscoding in the record linkage data and some record linkage errors.
We conclude that routinely collected data could be used for recording cardiovascular endpoints in clinical trials and would give very similar results to rigorously collected clinical trial data, in countries with unified health systems such as Scotland. The endpoint types would need to be carefully thought through and an expert endpoint adjudication committee should be involved.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Purpose
Women diagnosed with non-affective psychosis have a lower general fertility rate (GFR) and age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) than women in the general population. Contemporary data on GFR in ...this group remain limited, despite substantive changes in prescribing and management. We calculated contemporary estimates of the GFR and ASFR for women diagnosed with non-affective psychosis compared with the general population of women without this diagnosis.
Methods
A population-based design combined routinely collected historical maternity and psychiatric data from two representative areas of Scotland. Women were included from the NHS Grampian or Greater Glasgow and Clyde areas and were aged 15–44 between 2005 and 2013 inclusive. The ‘exposed’ group had a diagnosis of non-affective psychosis (ICD-10 F20–F29) and was compared to the general population of 'unexposed' women in the same geographical areas.
Results
Annual GFR between 2005 and 2013 for women with non-affective psychosis varied from 9.6 to 21.3 live births/1000 women per year in the exposed cohort and 52.7 to 57.8 live births/1000 women per year in the unexposed cohort, a rate ratio (RR) of 0.28
p
< 0.001; 95% CI (0.24, 0.32). ASFR for all 5-year age groups was lower in the exposed cohort than amongst unexposed women.
Conclusion
We highlight continued low fertility rates in women with a diagnosis of non-affective psychosis, despite widespread availability of prolactin-sparing atypical antipsychotics. Accurate estimation of fertility rates remains crucial in developing needs-matched perinatal care for these women. Methodological improvements using routine datasets to investigate perinatal mental health are also urgently needed.
The recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is stark in its warnings about the changing climate, including future increases in the frequency and intensity of extremely hot ...weather. The well-established impacts of extreme heat on human health have led to widespread implementation of national and city-wide heat plans for mitigating such impacts. Evaluations of the effectiveness of some heat plans have been published, with previous reviews highlighting key methodological challenges. This article reviews methods used since and that address those challenges, so helping to set an agenda for improving evaluations of heat plans in terms of their effectiveness in reducing heat-health impacts. We examined the reviews that identified the methodological challenges and systematically searched the literature to find evaluations that had since been conducted. We found 11 evaluations. Their methods help address the key challenge of identifying study control groups and address other challenges to a limited extent. For future evaluations, we recommend: utilising recent evaluation methodologies, such as difference-in-differences quasi-experimental designs where appropriate; cross-agency working to utilise data on morbidity and confounders; adoption of a proposed universal heat index; and greater publication of evaluations. More evaluations should assess morbidity outcomes and be conducted in low- and middle-income countries. Evaluations of heat plans globally should employ robust methodologies, as demonstrated in existing studies and potentially transferrable from other fields. Publication of such evaluations will advance the field and thus help address some of the health challenges resulting from our changing climate.
Summary
‘Will my study answer my research question?’ is the most fundamental question a researcher can ask when designing a study, yet when phrased in statistical terms – ‘What is the power of my ...study?’ or ‘How precise will my parameter estimate be?’ – few researchers in ecology and evolution (EE) try to answer it, despite the detrimental consequences of performing under‐ or over‐powered research. We suggest that this reluctance is due in large part to the unsuitability of simple methods of power analysis (broadly defined as any attempt to quantify prospectively the ‘informativeness’ of a study) for the complex models commonly used in EE research. With the aim of encouraging the use of power analysis, we present simulation from generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) as a flexible and accessible approach to power analysis that can account for random effects, overdispersion and diverse response distributions.
We illustrate the benefits of simulation‐based power analysis in two research scenarios: estimating the precision of a survey to estimate tick burdens on grouse chicks and estimating the power of a trial to compare the efficacy of insecticide‐treated nets in malaria mosquito control. We provide a freely available R function, sim.glmm, for simulating from GLMMs.
Analysis of simulated data revealed that the effects of accounting for realistic levels of random effects and overdispersion on power and precision estimates were substantial, with correspondingly severe implications for study design in the form of up to fivefold increases in sampling effort. We also show the utility of simulations for identifying scenarios where GLMM‐fitting methods can perform poorly.
These results illustrate the inadequacy of standard analytical power analysis methods and the flexibility of simulation‐based power analysis for GLMMs. The wider use of these methods should contribute to improving the quality of study design in EE.
Summary
Purpose: The recent definition of drug‐resistant epilepsy proposed by the International League Against Epilepsy (ILAE) stipulated failure of an adequate trial of two tolerated, appropriately ...chosen and used antiepileptic drug (AED) schedules to achieve seizure freedom. Doses failed were not specifically discussed. We explored the effect of the doses at which the first and second AED regimens failed on subsequent outcomes in a population of adults with newly diagnosed epilepsy followed for up to 20 years.
Methods: Patients in whom epilepsy was diagnosed and the first AED prescribed between July 1, 1982 and April 1, 2006, were followed until March 31, 2008. Dosage at which an AED failed was categorized according to the World Health Organization’s defined daily dose (DDD) for each drug. Cumulative incidence curves for time to final seizure freedom (no seizure for at least 1 year on unchanged dosage at last follow up) were stratified by whether the first regimen was failed at doses above or below the 25%, 50%, or 75% cutoffs for the DDD of each AED.
Key Findings: Among patients who had taken a second regimen (n = 327), those in whom the first AED failed at doses above the various cutoffs (particularly 50% and 75% DDD) had lower probability of becoming seizure‐free at last follow‐up (p = 0.06 for 25% DDD, p < 0.001 for both 50% and 75% DDD). The same difference was observed for patients who had taken a third regimen (n = 141; p = 0.23 for 25% DDD, p < 0.01 for 50% DDD; and p = 0.002 for 75% DDD). A trend to higher seizure‐free rate was observed in patients who had taken the third regimen when both the first and second regimens failed at <75% DDD. The difference remained significant after adjusting for covariates when using 50% DDD as the cutoff for patients who took a second regimen (hazard ratio 1.60, 95% confidence interval 1.08–2.37).
Significance: Higher failure dosage of the first AED predicts poorer subsequent outcome. This methodology could be used to refine further the ILAE definition of drug‐resistant epilepsy by exploring the doses need to fail to provide an adequate AED trial.
Abstract Objective To investigate effects of cold weather spells on incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), and potential effect modification of socio-demographic, clinical, behavioural and ...environmental exposures. Methods Data from two prospective studies were analysed: the British Regional Heart Study (BRHS), a population-based study of British men aged 60–79 years, followed for CVD incidence from 1998 to 2000 to 2012; and the PROSPER study of men and women aged 70–82 recruited to a trial of pravastatin vs placebo from 1997 to 9 (followed until 2009). Cold spells were defined as at least three consecutive days when daily mean temperature fell below the monthly 10th percentile specific to the closest local weather station. A time-stratified case-crossover approach was used to estimate associations between cold spells and CVD events. Results 921 of 4252 men from BRHS and 760 of 2519 participants from PROSPER suffered a first CVD event during follow-up. More CVD events were registered in winter in both studies. The risk ratio (RR) associated with cold spells was statistically significant in BRHS (RR = 1.86, 95%CI 1.30–2.65, p < 0.001), and independent of temperature level: results were similar whether events were fatal or non-fatal. Increased risk was particularly marked in BRHS for ever-smokers (RR of 2.44 vs 0.99 for never-smokers), in moderate/heavy drinkers (RR 2.59 vs 1.41), and during winter months (RR 3.28 vs 1.25). No increased risk was found in PROSPER. Conclusions Although CVD risks were higher in winter in both BRHS and PROSPER prospective studies, cold spells increased risk of CVD events, independently of cold temperature, in the BRHS only.
Measuring variation in childhood mental health supports the development of local early intervention strategies. The methodological approach used to investigate mental health trends (often determined ...by the availability of individual level data) can affect decision making. We apply two approaches to identify geographic trends in childhood social, emotional, and behavioural difficulties using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). SDQ forms were analysed for 35,171 children aged 4-6 years old across 180 preschools in Glasgow, UK, between 2010 and 2017 as part of routine monitoring. The number of children in each electoral ward and year with a high SDQ total difficulties score (≥15), indicating a high risk of psychopathology, was modelled using a disease mapping model. The total difficulties score for an individual child nested in their preschool and electoral ward was modelled using a multilevel model. For each approach, linear time trends and unstructured spatial random effects were estimated. The disease mapping model estimated a yearly rise in the relative rate (RR) of high scores of 1.5-5.0%. The multilevel model estimated an RR increase of 0.3-1.2% in average total scores across the years, with higher variation between preschools than between electoral wards. Rising temporal trends may indicate worsening social, emotional, and behavioural difficulties over time, with a faster rate for the proportion with high scores than for the average total scores. Preschool and ward variation, although minimal, highlight potential priority areas for local service provision. Both methodological approaches have utility in estimating and predicting children's difficulties and local areas requiring greater intervention.
BACKGROUND: Malaria control is heavily dependent on the use of insecticides that target adult mosquito vectors via insecticide treated nets (ITNs) or indoor residual spraying (IRS). Four classes of ...insecticide are approved for IRS but only pyrethroids are available for ITNs. The rapid rise in insecticide resistance in African malaria vectors has raised alarms about the sustainability of existing malaria control activities. This problem might be particularly acute in Côte d’Ivoire where resistance to all four insecticide classes has recently been recorded. Here we investigate temporal trends in insecticide resistance across the ecological zones of Côte d’Ivoire to determine whether apparent pan-African patterns of increasing resistance are detectable and consistent across insecticides and areas. METHODS: We combined data on insecticide resistance from a literature review, and bioassays conducted on field-caught Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes for the four WHO-approved insecticide classes for ITN/IRS. The data were then mapped using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and the IR mapper tool to provide spatial and temporal distribution data on insecticide resistance in An. gambiae sensu lato from Côte d’Ivoire between 1993 and 2014. RESULTS: Bioassay mortality decreased over time for all insecticide classes, though with significant spatiotemporal variation, such that stronger declines were observed in the southern ecological zone for DDT and pyrethroids than in the central zone, but with an apparently opposite effect for the carbamate and organophosphate. Variation in relative abundance of the molecular forms, coupled with dramatic increase in kdr 1014F frequency in M forms (An. coluzzii) seems likely to be a contributory factor to these patterns. Although records of resistance across insecticide classes have become more common, the number of classes tested in studies has also increased, precluding a conclusion that multiple resistance has also increased. CONCLUSION: Our analyses attempted synthesis of 22 years of bioassay data from Côte d’Ivoire, and despite a number of caveats and potentially confounding variables, suggest significant but spatially-variable temporal trends in insecticide resistance. In the light of such spatio-temporal dynamics, regular, systematic and spatially-expanded monitoring is warranted to provide accurate information on insecticide resistance for control programme management.
The prevalence of head injury is estimated to be as high as 55% in women in prison and might be a risk factor for violent offending, but evidence is equivocal. The extent of persisting disability is ...unknown, making decisions about service needs difficult. The UN recognises vulnerabilities in women in prison, but does not include head injury. This study aimed to investigate relationships among head injury, comorbidities, disability, and offending in women in prison.
In this cross-sectional study, women were recruited between Feb 2, 2018, and Sept 30, 2019, from four prisons across Scotland, UK: Her Majesty's Prison (HMP) Cornton Vale, Her Majesty's Young Offenders Institute Polmont, HMP Edinburgh, and HMP Greenock (detaining approximately 355 individuals at the time of recruitment). Women were included if they were aged older than 16 years, fluent in English, able to participate in face-to-face assessment and provide informed consent, and did not have a severe acute disorder of cognition or communication. Head injury, cognition, disability, mental health, and history of abuse and problematic substance use were assessed by interview. History of head injury was assessed with the Ohio State University Traumatic Brain Injury Identification method and disability was assessed with the Glasgow Outcome at Discharge Scale. Comparisons were made between women with and without a history of significant head injury.
We recruited 109 (31%) of the 355 women in these prisons. The sample was demographically representative of the approximately 400 individuals in women's prisons in Scotland. Significant head injury (SHI) was found in 85 (78%) of 109 women, of whom 34 (40%) had associated disability. Repeat head injury was reported in 71 (84%) of the 85 women with SHI and, in most cases, this resulted from domestic abuse that had occurred over many years. Women with a history of SHI were significantly more likely to have a history of violent offences than those without a history of SHI (66 79% of 85 women in the SHI group vs 13 54% of 24 women in the no-SHI group had committed a violent offence; odds ratio OR 3·1, 95% CI 1·2–8·1). This effect remained significant after adjusting for current factors (3·1, 1·1–9·0), including comorbidities associated with post-traumatic stress disorder, and was no longer statistically significant after adjusting for historical factors (3·3, 1·0–10·9), such as abuse as a child or adult. Women with SHI had spent longer in prison than women without SHI after adjustment for current (rate ratio 3·4, 1·3–8·4) or historical (3·5, 1·3–9·2) risk factors.
It is recognised that women in prison are vulnerable because of histories of abuse and problematic substance use; however, history of SHI needs to be included when developing criminal justice policy, interventions to reduce mental health morbidity, and assessment and management of risk of violent offending.
The Scottish Government.
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