Despite accounting for approximately one fifth of all acute gastroenteritis illnesses, norovirus has received comparatively less attention than other infectious pathogens. With several candidate ...vaccines under development, characterizing the global economic burden of norovirus could help funders, policy makers, public health officials, and product developers determine how much attention and resources to allocate to advancing these technologies to prevent and control norovirus.
We developed a computational simulation model to estimate the economic burden of norovirus in every country/area (233 total) stratified by WHO region and globally, from the health system and societal perspectives. We considered direct costs of illness (e.g., clinic visits and hospitalization) and productivity losses.
Globally, norovirus resulted in a total of $4.2 billion (95% UI: $3.2-5.7 billion) in direct health system costs and $60.3 billion (95% UI: $44.4-83.4 billion) in societal costs per year. Disease amongst children <5 years cost society $39.8 billion, compared to $20.4 billion for all other age groups combined. Costs per norovirus illness varied by both region and age and was highest among adults ≥55 years. Productivity losses represented 84-99% of total costs varying by region. While low and middle income countries and high income countries had similar disease incidence (10,148 vs. 9,935 illness per 100,000 persons), high income countries generated 62% of global health system costs. In sensitivity analysis, the probability of hospitalization had the largest impact on health system cost estimates ($2.8 billion globally, assuming no hospitalization costs), while the probability of missing productive days had the largest impact on societal cost estimates ($35.9 billion globally, with a 25% probability of missing productive days).
The total economic burden is greatest in young children but the highest cost per illness is among older age groups in some regions. These large costs overwhelmingly are from productivity losses resulting from acute illness. Low, middle, and high income countries all have a considerable economic burden, suggesting that norovirus gastroenteritis is a truly global economic problem. Our findings can help identify which age group(s) and/or geographic regions may benefit the most from interventions.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Given the continuing COVID-19 pandemic and much of the U.S. implementing social distancing owing to the lack of alternatives, there has been a push to develop a vaccine to eliminate the need for ...social distancing.
In 2020, the team developed a computational model of the U.S. simulating the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus and vaccination.
Simulation experiments revealed that to prevent an epidemic (reduce the peak by >99%), the vaccine efficacy has to be at least 60% when vaccination coverage is 100% (reproduction number=2.5–3.5). This vaccine efficacy threshold rises to 70% when coverage drops to 75% and up to 80% when coverage drops to 60% when reproduction number is 2.5, rising to 80% when coverage drops to 75% when the reproduction number is 3.5. To extinguish an ongoing epidemic, the vaccine efficacy has to be at least 60% when coverage is 100% and at least 80% when coverage drops to 75% to reduce the peak by 85%–86%, 61%–62%, and 32% when vaccination occurs after 5%, 15%, and 30% of the population, respectively, have already been exposed to COVID-19 coronavirus. A vaccine with an efficacy between 60% and 80% could still obviate the need for other measures under certain circumstances such as much higher, and in some cases, potentially unachievable, vaccination coverages.
This study found that the vaccine has to have an efficacy of at least 70% to prevent an epidemic and of at least 80% to largely extinguish an epidemic without any other measures (e.g., social distancing).
Even though human hookworm infection is highly endemic in many countries throughout the world, its global economic and health impact is not well known. Without a better understanding of hookworm's ...economic burden worldwide, it is difficult for decision makers such as funders, policy makers, disease control officials, and intervention manufacturers to determine how much time, energy, and resources to invest in hookworm control.
We developed a computational simulation model to estimate the economic and health burden of hookworm infection in every country, WHO region, and globally, in 2016 from the societal perspective. Globally, hookworm infection resulted in a total 2,126,280 DALYs using 2004 disability weight estimates and 4,087,803 DALYs using 2010 disability weight estimates (excluding cognitive impairment outcomes). Including cognitive impairment did not significantly increase DALYs worldwide. Total productivity losses varied with the probability of anemia and calculation method used, ranging from $7.5 billion to $138.9 billion annually using gross national income per capita as a proxy for annual wages and ranging from $2.5 billion to $43.9 billion using minimum wage as a proxy for annual wages.
Even though hookworm is classified as a neglected tropical disease, its economic and health burden exceeded published estimates for a number of diseases that have received comparatively more attention than hookworm such as rotavirus. Additionally, certain large countries that are transitioning to higher income countries such as Brazil and China, still face considerable hookworm burden.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
With the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, one of the major concerns is the direct medical cost and resource use burden imposed on the US health care system. We developed a Monte Carlo ...simulation model that represented the US population and what could happen to each person who got infected. We estimated resource use and direct medical costs per symptomatic infection and at the national level, with various "attack rates" (infection rates), to understand the potential economic benefits of reducing the burden of the disease. A single symptomatic COVID-19 case could incur a median direct medical cost of $3,045 during the course of the infection alone. If 80 percent of the US population were to get infected, the result could be a median of 44.6 million hospitalizations, 10.7 million intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, 6.5 million patients requiring a ventilator, 249.5 million hospital bed days, and $654.0 billion in direct medical costs over the course of the pandemic. If 20 percent of the US population were to get infected, there could be a median of 11.2 million hospitalizations, 2.7 million ICU admissions, 1.6 million patients requiring a ventilator, 62.3 million hospital bed days, and $163.4 billion in direct medical costs over the course of the pandemic.
A systems approach to obesity Lee, Bruce Y; Bartsch, Sarah M; Mui, Yeeli ...
Nutrition reviews,
01/2017, Letnik:
75, Številka:
suppl 1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Obesity has become a truly global epidemic, affecting all age groups, all populations, and countries of all income levels. To date, existing policies and interventions have not reversed these trends, ...suggesting that innovative approaches are needed to transform obesity prevention and control. There are a number of indications that the obesity epidemic is a systems problem, as opposed to a simple problem with a linear cause-and-effect relationship. What may be needed to successfully address obesity is an approach that considers the entire system when making any important decision, observation, or change. A systems approach to obesity prevention and control has many benefits, including the potential to further understand indirect effects or to test policies virtually before implementing them in the real world. Discussed here are 5 key efforts to implement a systems approach for obesity prevention: 1) utilize more global approaches; 2) bring new experts from disciplines that do not traditionally work with obesity to share experiences and ideas with obesity experts; 3) utilize systems methods, such as systems mapping and modeling; 4) modify and combine traditional approaches to achieve a stronger systems orientation; and 5) bridge existing gaps between research, education, policy, and action. This article also provides an example of how a systems approach has been used to convene a multidisciplinary team and conduct systems mapping and modeling as part of an obesity prevention program in Baltimore, Maryland.
Finding medications or vaccines that may decrease the infectious period of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) could potentially reduce transmission in the broader ...population. We developed a computational model of the U.S. simulating the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the potential clinical and economic impact of reducing the infectious period duration. Simulation experiments found that reducing the average infectious period duration could avert a median of 442,852 treating 25% of symptomatic cases, reducing by 0.5 days, reproductive number (R0) 3.5, and starting treatment when 15% of the population has been exposed to 44.4 million SARS-CoV-2 cases (treating 75% of all infected cases, reducing by 3.5 days, R0 2.0). With R0 2.5, reducing the average infectious period duration by 0.5 days for 25% of symptomatic cases averted 1.4 million cases and 99,398 hospitalizations; increasing to 75% of symptomatic cases averted 2.8 million cases. At $500/person, treating 25% of symptomatic cases saved $209.5 billion (societal perspective). Further reducing the average infectious period duration by 3.5 days averted 7.4 million cases (treating 25% of symptomatic cases). Expanding treatment to 75% of all infected cases, including asymptomatic infections (R0 2.5), averted 35.9 million cases and 4 million hospitalizations, saving $48.8 billion (societal perspective and starting treatment after 5% of the population has been exposed). Our study quantifies the potential effects of reducing the SARS-CoV-2 infectious period duration.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The World Health Organization's 2020 Goals for Chagas disease include access to antiparasitic treatment and care of all infected/ill patients. Policy makers need to know the economic value of ...identifying and treating patients earlier. However, the economic value of earlier treatment to cure and prevent the Chagas' spread remains unknown.
We expanded our existing Chagas disease transmission model to include identification and treatment of Chagas disease patients. We linked this to a clinical and economic model that translated chronic Chagas disease cases into health and economic outcomes. We evaluated the impact and economic outcomes (costs, cost-effectiveness, cost-benefit) of identifying and treating different percentages of patients in the acute and indeterminate disease states in a 2,000-person village in Yucatan, Mexico.
In the absence of early treatment, 50 acute and 22 new chronic cases occurred over 50 years. Identifying and treating patients in the acute stage averted 0.5-5.4 acute cases, 0.6-5.5 chronic cases, and 0.6-10.8 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), saving $694-$7,419 and $6,976-$79,950 from the third-party payer and societal perspectives, respectively. Treating in the indeterminate stage averted 2.2-4.9 acute cases, 6.1-12.8 chronic cases, and 11.7-31.1 DALYs, saving $7,666-$21,938 from the third-party payer perspective and $90,530-$243,068 from the societal perspective. Treating patients in both stages averted ≤9 acute cases and ≤15 chronic cases. Identifying and treating patients early was always economically dominant compared to no treatment. Identifying and treating patients earlier resulted in a cumulative cost-benefit of $7,273-$224,981 at the current cost of identification and treatment.
Even when identifying and treating as little as 5% of cases annually, treating Chagas cases in the acute and indeterminate stages reduces transmission and provides economic and health benefits. This supports the need for improved diagnostics and access to safe and effective treatment.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Background. In May 2011, the Food and Drug Administration approved fidaxomicin for the treatment of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). It has been found to be noninferior to vancomycin; however, ...its cost-effectiveness for the treatment of CDI remains undetermined. Methods. We developed a decision analytic simulation model to determine the economic value of fidaxomicin for CDI treatment from the third-party payer perspective. We looked at CDI treatment in these 3 cases: (1) no fidaxomicin, (2) only fidaxomicin, and (3) fidaxomicin based on strain typing results. Results. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for fidaxomicin based on screening given current conditions was >$43.7 million per quality-adjusted life-year and using only fidaxomicin was dominated (ie, more costly and less effective) by the other 2 treatment strategies explored. The fidaxomicin strategy tended to remain dominated, even at lower costs. With approximately 50% of CDI due to the NAP1/BI/027 strain, a course of fidaxomicin would need to cost ≤$150 to be cost-effective in the treatment of all CDI cases and between $160 and $400 to be cost-effective for those with a non-NAP1/BI/027 strain (ie, treatment based on strain typing). Conclusions. Given the current cost and NAP1/BI/027 accounting for approximately 50% of isolates, using fidaxomicin as a first-line treatment for CDI is not cost-effective. However, typing and treatment with fidaxomicin based on strain may be more promising depending on the costs of fidaxomicin.
Abstract
Background
Although norovirus outbreaks periodically make headlines, it is unclear how much attention norovirus may receive otherwise. A better understanding of the burden could help ...determine how to prioritize norovirus prevention and control.
Methods
We developed a computational simulation model to quantify the clinical and economic burden of norovirus in the United States.
Results
A symptomatic case generated $48 in direct medical costs, $416 in productivity losses ($464 total). The median yearly cost of outbreaks was $7.6 million (range across years, $7.5–$8.2 million) in direct medical costs, and $165.3 million ($161.1–$176.4 million) in productivity losses ($173.5 million total). Sporadic illnesses in the community (incidence, 10–150/1000 population) resulted in 14 118–211 705 hospitalizations, 8.2–122.9 million missed school/work days, $0.2–$2.3 billion in direct medical costs, and $1.4–$20.7 billion in productivity losses ($1.5–$23.1 billion total). The total cost was $10.6 billion based on the current incidence estimate (68.9/1000).
Conclusion
Our study quantified norovirus’ burden. Of the total burden, sporadic cases constituted >90% (thus, annual burden may vary depending on incidence) and productivity losses represented 89%. More than half the economic burden is in adults ≥45, more than half occurs in winter months, and >90% of outbreak costs are due to person-to-person transmission, offering insights into where and when prevention/control efforts may yield returns.
We estimate that norovirus costs $10.6 billion annually, based on the latest US incidence estimate. Sporadic community cases represented >90% and productivity losses 89% of the total burden, with more than half the burden in adults aged ≥45 years.
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