The most arresting aspect of the Scottish Enlightenment is its conception of commercial society as a distinct and distinctive social formation. Christopher Berry explains why Enlightenment thinkers ...considered commercial society to be wealthier and freer than earlier forms, and charts the contemporary debates and tensions between Enlightenment thinkers that this idea raised. The book analyses the full range of literature on the subject, from key works like Adam Smith's ‘Wealth of Nations’, David Hume's ‘Essays and Treatises on Several Subjects’ and Adam Ferguson's ‘Essay on the History of Civil Society’ to lesser-known works such as Robert Wallace’s ‘Dissertation on Numbers of Mankind’.
Folding uncertainty in theoretical models into Bayesian parameter estimation is necessary in order to make reliable inferences. A general means of achieving this is by marginalizing over model ...uncertainty using a prior distribution constructed using Gaussian process regression (GPR). As an example, we apply this technique to the measurement of chirp mass using (simulated) gravitational-wave signals from binary black holes that could be observed using advanced-era gravitational-wave detectors. Unless properly accounted for, uncertainty in the gravitational-wave templates could be the dominant source of error in studies of these systems. We explain our approach in detail and provide proofs of various features of the method, including the limiting behavior for high signal-to-noise, where systematic model uncertainties dominate over noise errors. We find that the marginalized likelihood constructed via GPR offers a significant improvement in parameter estimation over the standard, uncorrected likelihood both in our simple one-dimensional study, and theoretically in general. We also examine the dependence of the method on the size of training set used in the GPR; on the form of covariance function adopted for the GPR, and on changes to the detector noise power spectral density.
Despite studying a list of items only minutes earlier, when reencountered in a recognition memory test, undergraduate participants often say with total confidence that they have not studied some of ...the items before. Such high confidence miss (HCM) responses have been taken as evidence of rapid and complete forgetting and of everyday amnesia (Roediger & Tekin, 2020). We investigated (a) if memory for HCMs is completely lost or whether a residual memory effect exists and (b) whether dominant decision models predict the effect. Participants studied faces (Experiments 1a, 2, and 3) or words (Experiment 1b), then completed a single-item recognition memory task, followed by either (a) a two-alternative forced-choice recognition task, in which the studied and nonstudied alternatives on each trial were matched for their previous old/new decision and confidence rating (Experiments 1 and 2) or (b) a second single-item recognition task in which the targets and foils were HCMs and high confidence correct rejections, respectively (Experiment 3). In each experiment, participants reliably distinguished HCMs from high-confidence correct rejections. The unequal variance signal detection and dual-process signal detection models were fit to the single-item recognition data, and the parameter estimates were used to predict the memory effect for HCMs. The dual-process signal detection model predicted the residual memory effect (as did another popular model, the mixture signal detection theory model). However, the unequal variance signal detection model incorrectly predicted a negative, or no, effect, invalidating this model. The residual memory effect for HCMs demonstrates that everyday amnesia is not associated with complete memory loss and distinguishes between decision models.
Public Significance StatementParticipants in our experiments appeared to completely forget studying particular items (pictures of faces or words) over short intervals in tests of recognition memory-thereby showing everyday amnesia. However, memory for such items was evident in a follow-up memory test. This suggests that the memory loss that occurs in everyday amnesia is not complete and also has implications for formal decision models of recognition.
In temperate latitudes, toxic cyanobacteria blooms often occur in eutrophied ecosystems during warm months. Many common bloom-forming cyanobacteria have toxic and non-toxic strains which co-occur and ...are visually indistinguishable but can be quantified molecularly. Toxic
Microcystis cells possess a suite of microcystin synthesis genes (
mcyA–
mcyJ), while non-toxic strains do not. For this study, we assessed the temporal dynamics of toxic and non-toxic strains of
Microcystis by quantifying the microcystin synthetase gene (
mcyD) and the small subunit ribosomal RNA gene, 16S (an indicator of total
Microcystis), from samples collected from four lakes across the Northeast US over a two-year period. Nutrient concentrations and water quality were measured and experiments were conducted which examined the effects of elevated levels of temperatures (+4
°C), nitrogen, and phosphorus on the growth rates of toxic and non-toxic strains of
Microcystis. During the study, toxic
Microcystis cells comprised between 12% and 100% of the total
Microcystis population in Lake Ronkonkoma, NY, and between 0.01% and 6% in three other systems. In all lakes, molecular quantification of toxic (
mcyD-possessing)
Microcystis was a better predictor of
in situ microcystin levels than total cyanobacteria, total
Microcystis, chlorophyll
a, or other factors, being significantly correlated with the toxin in every lake studied. Experimentally enhanced temperatures yielded significantly increased growth rates of toxic
Microcystis in 83% of experiments conducted, but did so for non-toxic
Microcystis in only 33% of experiments, suggesting that elevated temperatures yield more toxic
Microcystis cells and/or cells with more
mcyD copies per cell, with either scenario potentially yielding more toxic blooms. Furthermore, concurrent increases in temperature and P concentrations yielded the highest growth rates of toxic
Microcystis cells in most experiments suggesting that future eutrophication and climatic warming may additively promote the growth of toxic, rather than non-toxic, populations of
Microcystis, leading to blooms with higher microcystin content.
Purpose Adjuvant therapy for intermediate-risk and high-risk localized prostate cancer decreases the number of deaths from this disease. Surrogates for overall survival (OS) could expedite the ...evaluation of new adjuvant therapies. Methods By June 2013, 102 completed or ongoing randomized trials were identified and individual patient data were collected from 28 trials with 28,905 patients. Disease-free survival (DFS) and metastasis-free survival (MFS) were determined for 21,140 patients from 24 trials and 12,712 patients from 19 trials, respectively. We evaluated the surrogacy of DFS and MFS for OS by using a two-stage meta-analytic validation model by determining the correlation of an intermediate clinical end point with OS and the correlation of treatment effects on both the intermediate clinical end point and OS. Results Trials enrolled patients from 1987 to 2011. After a median follow-up of 10 years, 45% of 21,140 men and 45% of 12,712 men experienced a DFS and MFS event, respectively. For DFS and MFS, 61% and 90% of the patients, respectively, were from radiation trials, and 63% and 66%, respectively, had high-risk disease. At the patient level, Kendall's τ correlation with OS was 0.85 and 0.91 for DFS and MFS, respectively. At the trial level, R
was 0.86 (95% CI, 0.78 to 0.90) and 0.83 (95% CI, 0.71 to 0.88) from weighted linear regression of 8-year OS rates versus 5-year DFS and MFS rates, respectively. Treatment effects-measured by log hazard ratios-for the surrogates and OS were well correlated ( R
, 0.73 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.82 for DFS and 0.92 95% CI, 0.81 to 0.95 for MFS). Conclusion MFS is a strong surrogate for OS for localized prostate cancer that is associated with a significant risk of death from prostate cancer.
Experiments were conducted with hydrous olivine to investigate the defect responsible for the influence of water (hydrogen structurally incorporated as hydroxyl) on the olivine rheology. ...Solution–gelation derived Fo90 olivine doped with nominally 0.04–0.1 wt.% TiO2 was first hot-pressed and then deformed in platinum capsules at 300 MPa confining pressure and temperatures from 1200–1350°C. The water content was not buffered so that deformation occurred at water-undersaturated conditions. Due to the enhanced grain growth under hydrous conditions, the samples were at least a factor of three more coarse-grained than their dry counterparts and deformed in powerlaw creep at differential stresses as low as a few tens of MPa. Since all experiments were conducted at the same confining pressure, the essentially linear relationship between strain rate and water content was for the first time determined independently of an activation volume. Infrared spectra are dominated by absorption bands at 3572 and 3525 cm−1. These bands also predominate in infrared spectra of natural olivine, and can only be reproduced experimentally in the presence of titanium. In contrast to the previous interpretation of the hydrous rheology in terms of intrinsic point defects, the experiments show that extrinsic defects (impurities) in natural olivine play the dominant role for water weakening at the water contents expected for most of the upper mantle.
•Encapsulation of Ti-bearing olivine in Pt enables water retention without buffer.•FTIR shows that hydrogen associated with Ti impurities causes water weakening.•Dislocation creep rheology is linearly dependent on water content.•For MORB source compositions most or all water can be accommodated by Ti-defects.
Non-melanoma skin cancers are cutaneous malignancies representing the most common form of cancer in the United States. They are comprised predominantly of basal cell carcinomas and squamous cell ...carcinomas (cSCC). The incidence of cSCC is increasing, resulting in substantial morbidity and ever higher treatment costs; currently in excess of one billion dollars, per annum. Here, we review research defining the molecular basis and development of cSCC that aims to provide new insights into pathogenesis and drive the development of novel, cost and morbidity saving therapies.
A climate data record of global sea surface temperature (SST) spanning 1981-2016 has been developed from 4 × 10
satellite measurements of thermal infra-red radiance. The spatial area represented by ...pixel SST estimates is between 1 km
and 45 km
. The mean density of good-quality observations is 13 km
yr
. SST uncertainty is evaluated per datum, the median uncertainty for pixel SSTs being 0.18 K. Multi-annual observational stability relative to drifting buoy measurements is within 0.003 K yr
of zero with high confidence, despite maximal independence from in situ SSTs over the latter two decades of the record. Data are provided at native resolution, gridded at 0.05° latitude-longitude resolution (individual sensors), and aggregated and gap-filled on a daily 0.05° grid. Skin SSTs, depth-adjusted SSTs de-aliased with respect to the diurnal cycle, and SST anomalies are provided. Target applications of the dataset include: climate and ocean model evaluation; quantification of marine change and variability (including marine heatwaves); climate and ocean-atmosphere processes; and specific applications in ocean ecology, oceanography and geophysics.
Deception is a central component of the personality 'Dark Triad' (Machiavellianism, Psychopathy and Narcissism). However, whether individuals exhibiting high scores on Dark Triad measures have a ...heightened deceptive ability has received little experimental attention. The present study tested whether the ability to lie effectively, and to detect lies told by others, was related to Dark Triad, Lie Acceptability, or Self-Deceptive measures of personality using an interactive group-based deception task. At a group level, lie detection accuracy was correlated with the ability to deceive others-replicating previous work. No evidence was found to suggest that Dark Triad traits confer any advantage either to deceive others, or to detect deception in others. Participants who considered lying to be more acceptable were more skilled at lying, while self-deceptive individuals were generally less credible and less confident when lying. Results are interpreted within a framework in which repeated practice results in enhanced deceptive ability.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Vitamin D was used to treat tuberculosis (TB) in the preantibiotic era. Prospective studies to evaluate the effect of vitamin D supplementation on antimycobacterial immunity have not previously been ...performed.
To determine the effect of vitamin D supplementation on antimycobacterial immunity and vitamin D status.
A double-blind randomized controlled trial was conducted in 192 healthy adult TB contacts in London, United Kingdom. Participants were randomized to receive a single oral dose of 2.5 mg vitamin D or placebo and followed up at 6 weeks.
The primary outcome measure was assessed with a functional whole blood assay (BCG-lux assay), which measures the ability of whole blood to restrict luminescence, and thus growth, of recombinant reporter mycobacteria in vitro; the readout is expressed as a luminescence ratio (luminescence postinfection/baseline luminescence). IFN-gamma responses to the Mycobacterium tuberculosis antigens early secretory antigenic target-6 and culture filtrate protein 10 were determined with a second whole blood assay. Vitamin D supplementation significantly enhanced the ability of participants' whole blood to restrict BCG-lux luminescence in vitro compared with placebo (mean luminescence ratio at follow-up, 0.57, vs. 0.71, respectively; 95% confidence interval for difference, 0.01-0.25; p=0.03) but did not affect antigen-stimulated IFN-gamma secretion.
A single oral dose of 2.5 mg vitamin D significantly enhanced the ability of participants' whole blood to restrict BCG-lux luminescence in vitro without affecting antigen-stimulated IFN-gamma responses. Clinical trials should be performed to determine whether vitamin D supplementation prevents reactivation of latent TB infection. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT 00157066).
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