We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model ...Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–1,400 Pcal (8–24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400–2,600 Pcal (24–43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.
Interest in estimating the potential socioeconomic costs of climate change has led to the increasing use of dynamical downscaling—nested modeling in which regional climate models (RCMs) are driven ...with general circulation model (GCM) output—to produce fine-spatial-scale climate projections for impacts assessments. We evaluate here whether this computationally intensive approach significantly alters projections of agricultural yield, one of the greatest concerns under climate change. Our results suggest that it does not. We simulate US maize yields under current and future CO ₂ concentrations with the widely used Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop model, driven by a variety of climate inputs including two GCMs, each in turn downscaled by two RCMs. We find that no climate model output can reproduce yields driven by observed climate unless a bias correction is first applied. Once a bias correction is applied, GCM- and RCM-driven US maize yields are essentially indistinguishable in all scenarios (<10% discrepancy, equivalent to error from observations). Although RCMs correct some GCM biases related to fine-scale geographic features, errors in yield are dominated by broad-scale (100s of kilometers) GCM systematic errors that RCMs cannot compensate for. These results support previous suggestions that the benefits for impacts assessments of dynamically downscaling raw GCM output may not be sufficient to justify its computational demands. Progress on fidelity of yield projections may benefit more from continuing efforts to understand and minimize systematic error in underlying climate projections.
Victims and survivors of sexual violence are sometimes blamed for the assault because of irrelevant factors such as how much they had to drink or what they wore. Research has indicated that ...conservative religious beliefs increase the prevalence of victim blaming. In order to see if this pattern extended to college administrators, we used a hermeneutic phenomenological approach and interviewed eight sexual assault investigators at a faith-based institution to understand their lived and shared experiences. Four significant themes emerged from our study: the tension between student care and a legally defensible process, hope amid a never-ending saga, forbidden knowledge, and victim blaming. We conclude with a call to focus more carefully on language used, recommendations for decreasing the prevalence of victim blaming, and on preventing investigators from compassion fatigue, vicarious traumatization, and burnout.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
We present a framework for massively parallel climate impact simulations: the parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS). This framework comprises a) tools for ingesting and ...converting large amounts of data to a versatile datatype based on a common geospatial grid; b) tools for translating this datatype into custom formats for site-based models; c) a scalable parallel framework for performing large ensemble simulations, using any one of a number of different impacts models, on clusters, supercomputers, distributed grids, or clouds; d) tools and data standards for reformatting outputs to common datatypes for analysis and visualization; and e) methodologies for aggregating these datatypes to arbitrary spatial scales such as administrative and environmental demarcations. By automating many time-consuming and error-prone aspects of large-scale climate impacts studies, pSIMS accelerates computational research, encourages model intercomparison, and enhances reproducibility of simulation results. We present the pSIMS design and use example assessments to demonstrate its multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-sector versatility.
•Open-source framework for efficient massively parallel climate impact simulations.•Enables analysis of dozens of crop and tree species with DSSAT, APSIM, and CenW.•Multi-model multi-scale assessment of maize yield in Africa using DSSAT and APSIM.•High-resolution climate impact assessment of New Zealand forest productivity.•Computational scaling behavior of the framework to assess the efficiency gain attained.
We present a novel bottom-up approach to estimate biofuel-induced land-use change (LUC) and resulting CO2 emissions in the U.S. from 2010 to 2022, based on a consistent methodology across four ...essential components: land availability, land suitability, LUC decision-making, and induced CO2 emissions. Using high-resolution geospatial data and modeling, we construct probabilistic assessments of county-, state-, and national-level LUC and emissions for macroeconomic scenarios. We use the Cropland Data Layer and the Protected Areas Database to characterize availability of land for biofuel crop cultivation, and the CERES-Maize and BioCro biophysical crop growth models to estimate the suitability (yield potential) of available lands for biofuel crops. For LUC decisionmaking, we use a county-level stochastic partial-equilibrium modeling framework and consider five scenarios involving annual ethanol production scaling to 15, 22, and 29 BG, respectively, in 2022, with corn providing feedstock for the first 15 BG and the remainder coming from one of two dedicated energy crops. Finally, we derive high-resolution above-ground carbon factors from the National Biomass and Carbon Data set to estimate emissions from each LUC pathway. Based on these inputs, we obtain estimates for average total LUC emissions of 6.1, 2.2, 1.0, 2.2, and 2.4 gCO2e/MJ for Corn-15 Billion gallons (BG), Miscanthus × giganteus (MxG)-7 BG, Switchgrass (SG)-7 BG, MxG-14 BG, and SG-14 BG scenarios, respectively.
One of 5 women are sexually assaulted during college, resulting not only in immediate suffering, but also negative consequences that affect their career trajectory and success over a lifetime (Krebs ...et al., 2016; Loya, 2015). Although previous research has focused on the individual predictors of violence, more recent research has hypothesized the ways campus climate contributes to campus sexual assault by creating social norms that increase a student's risk of sexual assault (Casey & Lindhorst, 2009; DeGue et al., 2012). This study addresses the public health epidemic of sexual violence on college campuses with the guiding research question: To what extent do individual characteristics and campus climate measures contribute to the variation in campus sexual assault victimization? Logistic regression analysis utilized the individual perceptions and self-reported behaviors of 6,643 students and institutional-level predictors to determine the contribution of each variable to the variation in sexual violence victimization on 38 campuses of 4-year universities. Results revealed the type of institution was a significant predictor only until other institutional characteristics were known; individual behaviors, experiences, and peer groups explained the overwhelming variation between students who were and were not sexually assaulted. Findings also revealed 96% of the victims of sexual assault have experienced additional forms of sexual assault or discrimination, creating a constellation of violence in their lives. Implications for administrators include identifying the subcultures that support high-risk behaviors and recognizing the comorbidity of sexual violence. The dissertation citations contained here are published with the permission of ProQuest LLC. Further reproduction is prohibited without permission. Copies of dissertations may be obtained by Telephone (800) 1-800-521-0600. Web page: http://www.proquest.com/en-US/products/dissertations/individuals.shtml.
Most amusing so far: the Ninja Assassin Keys to the Game,'' promoting an upcoming film. Most amusing so far: the Ninja Assassin Keys to the Game,'' promoting an upcoming film.
The Phillies have the rings, the star power and the mojo to be an ideal foil for the Yankees and provide a World Series matchup to keep most everyone happy.
PDF
