Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the ...empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Whether to continue oral anticoagulant therapy beyond 6 months after an "unprovoked" venous thromboembolism is controversial. We sought to determine clinical predictors to identify patients who are ...at low risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism who could safely discontinue oral anticoagulants.
In a multicentre prospective cohort study, 646 participants with a first, unprovoked major venous thromboembolism were enrolled over a 4-year period. Of these, 600 participants completed a mean 18-month follow-up in September 2006. We collected data for 69 potential predictors of recurrent venous thromboembolism while patients were taking oral anticoagulation therapy (5-7 months after initiation). During follow-up after discontinuing oral anticoagulation therapy, all episodes of suspected recurrent venous thromboembolism were independently adjudicated. We performed a multivariable analysis of predictor variables (p < 0.10) with high interobserver reliability to derive a clinical decision rule.
We identified 91 confirmed episodes of recurrent venous thromboembolism during follow-up after discontinuing oral anticoagulation therapy (annual risk 9.3%, 95% CI 7.7%-11.3%). Men had a 13.7% (95% CI 10.8%-17.0%) annual risk. There was no combination of clinical predictors that satisfied our criteria for identifying a low-risk subgroup of men. Fifty-two percent of women had 0 or 1 of the following characteristics: hyperpigmentation, edema or redness of either leg; D-dimer > or = 250 microg/L while taking warfarin; body mass index > or = 30 kg/m(2); or age > or = 65 years. These women had an annual risk of 1.6% (95% CI 0.3%-4.6%). Women who had 2 or more of these findings had an annual risk of 14.1% (95% CI 10.9%-17.3%).
Women with 0 or 1 risk factor may safely discontinue oral anticoagulant therapy after 6 months of therapy following a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism. This criterion does not apply to men.
Previous studies found an association between osteoarthritis (OA) and risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and therefore suggested intensive treatment of cardiovascular risk factors in OA patients. ...However, prospective population-based data is lacking.
To investigate the association between OA and CVD longitudinally in a general population and examine the role of disability in this association.
This study was embedded in the Rotterdam Study, a prospective population-based cohort study in Rotterdam, the Netherlands that started in 1989. At baseline 4648 persons aged ≥55, free of CVD were classified into those with and those without radiographic or clinical OA. HRs adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors for developing CVD (a composite of fatal and non-fatal coronary heart disease and stroke) were calculated.
During a median follow-up of 14.4 years, 1230 cardiovascular events occurred, of which 101 were in participants with clinical OA. Presence of radiographic OA at baseline was not related to future CVD (HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.15), neither was presence of clinical OA (HR 1.09, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.34). However, persons with increasing disability were more likely to suffer a cardiovascular event compared with non-disabled persons (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.42); this was independent of the presence of OA.
In this large population-based study, participants with OA were not at increased risk of CVD. The close relation between disability and osteoarthritis may explain previous findings. Further studies are required in order to clarify whether OA patients need more intensive treatment of their cardiovascular risk factors.
Individuals with type 2 diabetes have increased fracture risk despite higher bone mineral density (BMD). Our aim was to examine the influence of glucose control on skeletal complications.
Data of ...4,135 participants of the Rotterdam Study, a prospective population-based cohort, were available (mean follow-up 12.2 years). At baseline, 420 participants with type 2 diabetes were classified by glucose control (according to HbA1c calculated from fructosamine), resulting in three comparison groups: adequately controlled diabetes (ACD; n = 203; HbA1c <7.5%), inadequately controlled diabetes (ICD; n = 217; HbA1c ≥ 7.5%), and no diabetes (n = 3,715). Models adjusted for sex, age, height, and weight (and femoral neck BMD) were used to test for differences in bone parameters and fracture risk (hazard ratio HR 95% CI).
The ICD group had 1.1-5.6% higher BMD, 4.6-5.6% thicker cortices, and -1.2 to -1.8% narrower femoral necks than ACD and ND, respectively. Participants with ICD had 47-62% higher fracture risk than individuals without diabetes (HR 1.47 1.12-1.92) and ACD (1.62 1.09-2.40), whereas those with ACD had a risk similar to those without diabetes (0.91 0.67-1.23).
Poor glycemic control in type 2 diabetes is associated with fracture risk, high BMD, and thicker femoral cortices in narrower bones. We postulate that fragility in apparently "strong" bones in ICD can result from microcrack accumulation and/or cortical porosity, reflecting impaired bone repair.
To develop and validate a prognostic model for incident knee osteoarthritis (KOA) in a general population and determine the value of different risk factor groups to prediction.
The prognostic model ...was developed in 2628 individuals from the Rotterdam Study-I (RS-I). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed for questionnaire/easily obtainable variables, imaging variables, genetic and biochemical markers. The extended multivariate model was tested on discrimination (receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the curve (AUC)) in two other population-based cohorts: Rotterdam Study-II and Chingford Study.
In RS-I, there was moderate predictive value for incident KOA based on the genetic score alone in subjects aged <65 years (AUC 0.65), while it was only 0.55 for subjects aged ≥65 years. The AUC for gender, age and body mass index (BMI) in prediction for KOA was 0.66. Addition of the questionnaire variables, genetic score or biochemical marker urinary C-terminal cross-linked telopeptide of type II collagen to the model did not change the AUC. However, when adding the knee baseline KL score to the model the AUC increased to 0.79. Applying external validation, similar results were observed in the Rotterdam Study-II and the Chingford Study.
Easy obtainable 'Questionnaire' variables, genetic markers, OA at other joint sites and biochemical markers add only modestly to the prediction of KOA incidence using age, gender and BMI in an elderly population. Doubtful minor radiographic degenerative features in the knee, however, are a very strong predictor of future KOA. This is an important finding, as many radiologists do not report minor degenerative changes in the knee.
Summary
Background
Post‐thrombotic syndrome (PTS) is the most frequent complication of deep vein thrombosis (DVT). Its diagnosis is based on clinical characteristics. However, symptoms and signs of ...PTS are non‐specific, and could result from concomitant primary venous insufficiency (PVI) rather than DVT. This could bias evaluation of PTS.
Methods
Using data from the REVERSE multicenter study, we assessed risk factors for PTS in patients with a first unprovoked unilateral proximal DVT 5–7 months earlier who were free of clinically significant PVI (defined as absence of moderate or severe venous ectasia in the contralateral leg).
Results
Among the 328 patients considered, the prevalence of PTS was 27.1%. Obesity (odds ratio OR 2.6 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5–4.7), mild contralateral venous ectasia (OR 2.2 95% CI 1.1–4.3), poor International Normalized Ratio (INR) control (OR per additional 1% of time with INR < 2 during anticoagulant treatment of 1.018 95% CI 1.003–1.034) and the presence of residual venous obstruction on ultrasound (OR 2.1 95% CI 1.1–3.7) significantly increased the risk for PTS in multivariable analyses. When we restricted our analysis to patients without any signs, even mild, of contralateral venous insufficiency (n = 244), the prevalence of PTS decreased slightly to 24.6%. Only obesity remained an independent predictor of PTS (OR 2.6 95% CI 1.3–5.0). Poor INR control and residual venous obstruction also increased the risk, but the results were no longer statistically significant (OR 1.017 95% CI 0.999–1.035 and OR 1.7 95% CI 0.9–3.3, respectively).
Conclusions
After a first unprovoked proximal DVT, obese patients and patients with even mild PVI constitute a group at increased risk of developing PTS for whom particular attention should be paid with respect to PTS prevention. Careful monitoring of anticoagulant treatment may prevent PTS.
We have developed a new prior-based source extraction tool, xid+, to carry out photometry in the Herschel SPIRE (Spectral and Photometric Imaging Receiver) maps at the positions of known sources. ...xid+ is developed using a probabilistic Bayesian framework that provides a natural framework in which to include prior information, and uses the Bayesian inference tool Stan to obtain the full posterior probability distribution on flux estimates. In this paper, we discuss the details of xid+ and demonstrate the basic capabilities and performance by running it on simulated SPIRE maps resembling the COSMOS field, and comparing to the current prior-based source extraction tool desphot. Not only we show that xid+ performs better on metrics such as flux accuracy and flux uncertainty accuracy, but we also illustrate how obtaining the posterior probability distribution can help overcome some of the issues inherent with maximum-likelihood-based source extraction routines. We run xid+ on the COSMOS SPIRE maps from Herschel Multi-Tiered Extragalactic Survey using a 24-...m catalogue as a positional prior, and a uniform flux prior ranging from 0.01 to 1000 mJy. We show the marginalized SPIRE colour-colour plot and marginalized contribution to the cosmic infrared background at the SPIRE wavelengths. xid+ is a core tool arising from the Herschel Extragalactic Legacy Project (HELP) and we discuss how additional work within HELP providing prior information on fluxes can and will be utilized. The software is available at https://github.com/H-E-L-P/XID_plus. We also provide the data product for COSMOS. We believe this is the first time that the full posterior probability of galaxy photometry has been provided as a data product. (ProQuest: ... denotes formulae/symbols omitted.)
Background: Risk factors for post‐thrombotic syndrome (PTS) remain poorly understood.
Objectives: In this multinational multicenter study, we evaluated whether subtherapeutic warfarin ...anticoagulation was associated with the development of PTS.
Methods: Patients with a first unprovoked deep venous thrombosis (DVT) received standard anticoagulation for 5–7 months and were then assessed for PTS. The time in the therapeutic range was calculated from the international normalized ratio (INR) data. An INR below 2, more than 20% of the time, was considered as subtherapeutic anticoagulation.
Results: Of the 349 patients enrolled, 97 (28%) developed PTS. The overall frequency of PTS in patients with subtherapeutic anticoagulation was 33.5%, compared with 21.6% in those with an INR below two for ≤ 20% of the time (P = 0.01). During the first 3 months of therapy, the odds ratio (OR) for developing PTS if a patient had subtherapeutic anticoagulation was 1.78 (95% confidence interval CI 1.10–2.87). After adjusting for confounding variables, the OR was 1.84 (95% CI 1.13–3.01). Corresponding ORs for the full period of anticoagulation were 1.83 (95% CI 1.14–3.00) crude and 1.88 (95% CI 1.15–3.07) adjusted.
Conclusion: Subtherapeutic warfarin anticoagulation after a first unprovoked DVT was significantly associated with the development of PTS.
Abstract Dwarf caiman species of the genus Paleosuchus (Paleosuchus palpebrosus and Paleosuchus trigonatus) are old, widespread crocodilian lineages with populations affected by habitat modification. ...For both species, phylogeographical studies revealing crucial information have already been performed, but for important ecoregions, such as the Orinoco, knowledge is lacking. In this study, the phylogenetic identity of individuals of Paleosuchus spp. from the Orinoco basin of Colombia and Venezuela was evaluated. The genetic structure of the two species of Paleosuchus was also determined and their genetic diversity quantified. The results show a marked genetic structuring in both species, also indicating that the populations of P. trigonatus and P. palpebrosus of the Orinoco basin are well differentiated from those of other hydrographic basins. For Colombia, it was possible to infer that there are two independent management units for both species (Orinoco and Amazonas) and that the populations of the Orinoco basin present high genetic and haplotypic diversity. In Venezuela, only one management unit was identified for each species. This finding, together with the results of previous studies, show that, in total, there are at least five management units for P. palpebrosus and six for P. trigonatus, throughout their distribution areas. It is necessary to take this information into account when establishing conservation strategies for these species, although it is stressed that the geographical sampling must be improved in future phylogeographical studies, because information gaps persist at the geographical level.
Growing up in poverty is associated with reduced cognitive achievement as measured by standardized intelligence tests, but little is known about the underlying neurocognitive systems responsible for ...this effect. We administered a battery of tasks designed to tax-specific neurocognitive systems to healthy low and middle SES children screened for medical history and matched for age, gender and ethnicity. Higher SES was associated with better performance on the tasks, as expected, but the SES disparity was significantly nonuniform across neurocognitive systems. Pronounced differences were found in Left perisylvian/Language and Medial temporal/Memory systems, along with significant differences in Lateral/Prefrontal/Working memory and Anterior cingulate/Cognitive control and smaller, nonsignificant differences in Occipitotemporal/Pattern vision and Parietal/Spatial cognition.
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