Several recent studies have shown evidence for a widening of the tropical belt over the past few decades. One line of evidence uses statistics of the tropopause height to distinguish between tropics ...and extratropics and defines tropical edge latitudes as those latitudes at which the number of days per year with tropopause heights greater than 15 km exceeds a certain threshold (typically 200 days/yr). This definition involves two somewhat arbitrary thresholds. Here the sensitivity of the resulting widening trend of the tropical belt to these thresholds is investigated using four different reanalysis data sets. Widening trends are found to be particularly sensitive to changes in the tropopause height threshold. Ways to objectively determine appropriate thresholds to define tropical edge latitudes based on tropopause statistics are presented. Trend estimates for the width of the tropical belt from different reanalysis data sets are found to be mostly inconsistent with each other despite consistent seasonal and interannual variations.
Abstract
The effect of large-scale dynamics as represented by the residual mean meridional circulation in the transformed Eulerian sense, in particular its stratospheric part, on lower stratospheric ...static stability and tropopause structure is studied using a comprehensive chemistry–climate model (CCM), reanalysis data, and simple idealized modeling. Dynamical forcing of static stability as associated with the vertical structure of the residual circulation results in a dominant dipole forcing structure with negative static stability forcing just below the tropopause and positive static stability forcing just above the tropopause. This dipole forcing structure effectively sharpens the tropopause, especially during winter. Furthermore, the strong positive lowermost stratospheric static stability forcing causes a layer of strongly enhanced static stability just above the extratropical tropopause—a tropopause inversion layer (TIL)—especially in the winter midlatitudes. The strong positive static stability forcing is shown to be mainly due to the strong vertical gradient of the vertical residual velocity found just above the tropopause in the winter midlatitudes.
Stratospheric radiative equilibrium (SRE) solutions are obtained using offline radiative transfer calculations for a given tropospheric climate as simulated by the CCM. The resulting tropopause height in SRE is reduced by several kilometers in the tropics but is increased by 1–2 km in the extratropics, strongly reducing the equator-to-pole contrast in tropopause height. Moreover, the TIL in winter midlatitudes disappears in the SRE solution in contrast to the polar summer TIL, which stays intact. When the SRE solution is modified to include the effect of stratospheric dynamics as represented by the stratospheric residual circulation, the TIL in winter midlatitudes is recovered, suggesting that the static stability forcing associated with the stratospheric residual circulation represents the main cause for the TIL in the winter midlatitudes whereas radiation seems dominant in causing the polar summer TIL.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Abstract
Reanalysis data are used to evaluate the evolution of polar vortex geometry, planetary wave drag, and gravity wave drag prior to split versus displacement sudden stratospheric warmings ...(SSWs). A composite analysis that extends upward to the lower mesosphere reveals that split SSWs are characterized by a transition from a wide, funnel-shaped vortex that is anomalously strong to a vortex that is constrained about the pole and has little vertical tilt. In contrast, displacement SSWs are characterized by a wide, funnel-shaped vortex that is anomalously weak throughout the prewarming period. Moreover, during split SSWs, gravity wave drag is enhanced in the polar night jet, while planetary wave drag is enhanced within the extratropical surf zone. During displacement SSWs, gravity wave drag is anomalously weak throughout the extratropical stratosphere.
Using the composite analysis as a guide, a case study of the 2009 SSW is conducted in order to evaluate the roles of planetary and gravity waves for preconditioning the polar vortex in terms of two SSW-triggering scenarios: anomalous planetary wave forcing from the troposphere and resonance due to either internal or external Rossby waves. The results support the view that split SSWs are caused by resonance rather than anomalously large wave forcing. Given these findings, it is suggested that vortex preconditioning, which is traditionally defined in terms of vortex geometries that increase poleward wave focusing, may be better described by wave events (planetary and/or gravity) that “tune” the geometry of the vortex toward its resonant excitation points.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events can form a window of forecast opportunity for polar vortex predictions on subseasonal‐to‐seasonal time scales. Analyzing numerical ensemble simulations, we ...quantify the associated enhanced predictability due to reduced upward planetary wave fluxes during the mostly radiatively driven recovery phase following SSWs. Ensembles that predict an SSW show reduced ensemble spread in terms of polar vortex strength for several weeks to follow, as well as a corresponding reduction in forecast errors. This increased predictability is particularly pronounced for strong SSWs and even occurs if not all ensemble members predict a major SSW. Furthermore, we found a direct impact of the occurrence of SSWs on the date of the final warming (FW): the decrease in upward wave fluxes delays the FW significantly. The reduced spread after SSWs and the delay in FW date have potentially further implications for (subseasonal) predictions of the tropospheric and mesospheric circulations.
Plain Language Summary
The polar vortex is a large scale circulation active during winter in the higher levels of the polar atmosphere. Changes in the strength of the polar vortex can have an impact on the weather over mid‐latitude regions like Europe. This is the case especially for the period after so‐called sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, where the polar vortex breaks down very abruptly and then slowly recovers over several weeks. Such a break‐down of the polar vortex tends to suppress wave activity and hence reduces the dynamical variability in the polar stratosphere, leading to a more predictable evolution of the circulation. We quantify the strength and timescale of this increase in predictability of the polar vortex after an SSW using a large set of winter time model forecasts.
Key Points
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) lead to reduced forecast spread in the polar stratosphere for several weeks after the event
Reduced forecast spread after SSWs is driven by suppressed vertical planetary wave propagation due to persistent negative wind anomalies
Final warmings are delayed for winters with SSW, consistent with reduced upward wave fluxes following the SSW
Planetary waves (PWs) and gravity waves (GWs) are the key drivers of middle atmospheric circulation. Insufficient observations and inaccurate model representation of GWs limit our understanding of ...their stratospheric contributions, especially during the Antarctic polar vortex breakdown. This study employs the strength of the high‐resolution ERA5 reanalysis in resolving a broad spectrum of GWs in southern midlatitudes and its ability to estimate their forcing during the breakdown period. Most of the resolved southern hemisphere GWs deposit momentum around 60°S over the Southern Ocean. Further, a zonal momentum budget analysis during the breakdown period reveals that the resolved GW forcing in ERA5 provides as much as one‐fourth of the necessary wind deceleration at 60°S, 10 hPa. The parameterized GW drag, mostly from non‐orographic sources, provides more than half of the wind deceleration. Both findings highlight the key role of GWs in the vortex breakdown and discuss possibilities for further stratospheric GW analysis.
Plain Language Summary
Strong flow over mountains during winters and instabilities in the southern hemisphere troposphere can excite gravity waves that propagate from near‐surface all the way to atmospheric heights of 50–80 km. At these heights, they dissipate momentum and decelerate the strong eastward winds. Knowing the structure and extent of the forcing by these waves can help to better understand their role in driving the stratospheric and mesospheric circulation. However, the net forcing by these waves is not accurately known on account of limited observations and because global climate models cannot sufficiently resolve them. This study illustrates that the high‐resolution ERA5 reanalysis, which forms a natural bridge between observations and free running climate models, can be used to estimate the mean forcing due to such gravity waves and can help assess their role in springtime deceleration of polar vortex. Such an analysis was not possible using previous reanalysis datasets due to low resolution. The findings show that, indeed, gravity wave forcing can provide a large fraction of the deceleration needed to slow down the strong westerly winds in late winters.
Key Points
ERA5 partially resolves gravity waves allowing evaluation of their contribution to the springtime polar vortex breakdown
Climatology of the gravity wave forcing highlights relevance of gravity wave refraction and oblique propagation and suggests deceleration of up to −8 m/s/day around 60°S
Deceleration of the vortex due to gravity wave dissipation can be as high as the total necessary deceleration for the vortex breakdown
Earth’s arid subtropics are situated at the edges of the tropical belt, which encircles the planet along the equator and covers half of its surface area. The climate of the tropical belt is strongly ...influenced by the Hadley cells, with their subsidence and easterly trade winds both sustaining the aridity at the belt’s edges. The understanding of Earth’s past, present, and future climates is contingent on understanding the dynamics influencing this region. An important but unanswered question is how realistically climate models reproduce the mean state of the tropical belt. This study augments the existing literature by examining the mean width and seasonality of the tropical belt in climate models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) and experiments from the second phase of the Chemistry–Climate Model Validation (CCMVal-2) activity of the Stratospheric Processes and Their Role in Climate (SPARC) project. While the models overall reproduce the structure of the tropical belt width’s seasonal cycle, they underestimate its amplitude and cannot consistently reproduce the seasonal cycle lag between the Northern Hemisphere Hadley cell edge and subtropical jet latitudes found in observations. Additionally, up to 50% of the intermodel variation in mean tropical belt width can be attributed to model horizontal resolution, with finer resolution leading to a narrower tropical belt. Finer resolution is associated with an equatorward shift and intensification of subtropical eddy momentum flux convergence, which via the Coriolis torque explains essentially all of the grid-size bias and a large fraction of the total intermodel variation in Hadley cell width.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Trace gas transport in the lower stratosphere is investigated by analysing seasonal and inter-annual variations of the age of air spectrum – the probability distribution of stratospheric transit ...times. Age spectra are obtained using the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) driven by ERA-Interim winds and total diabatic heating rates, and using a time-evolving boundary-impulse-response (BIER) method based on multiple tracer pulses. Seasonal age spectra show large deviations from an idealized stationary uni-modal shape. Multiple modes emerge in the spectrum throughout the stratosphere, strongest at high latitudes, caused by the interplay of seasonally varying tropical upward mass flux, stratospheric transport barriers and recirculation. Inter-annual variations in transport (e.g. quasi-biennial oscillation) cause significant modulations of the age spectrum shape. In fact, one particular QBO phase may determine the spectrum's mode during the following 2–3 years. Interpretation of the age spectrum in terms of transport contributions due to the residual circulation and mixing is generally not straightforward. It turns out that advection by the residual circulation represents the dominant pathway in the deep tropics and in the winter hemisphere extratropics above 500 K, controlling the modal age in these regions. In contrast, in the summer hemisphere, particularly in the lowermost stratosphere, mixing represents the most probable pathway controlling the modal age.
Sudden Stratospheric Warmings Baldwin, Mark P.; Ayarzagüena, Blanca; Birner, Thomas ...
Reviews of geophysics,
March 2021, Letnik:
59, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are impressive fluid dynamical events in which large and rapid temperature increases in the winter polar stratosphere (∼10–50 km) are associated with a complete ...reversal of the climatological wintertime westerly winds. SSWs are caused by the breaking of planetary‐scale waves that propagate upwards from the troposphere. During an SSW, the polar vortex breaks down, accompanied by rapid descent and warming of air in polar latitudes, mirrored by ascent and cooling above the warming. The rapid warming and descent of the polar air column affect tropospheric weather, shifting jet streams, storm tracks, and the Northern Annular Mode, making cold air outbreaks over North America and Eurasia more likely. SSWs affect the atmosphere above the stratosphere, producing widespread effects on atmospheric chemistry, temperatures, winds, neutral (nonionized) particles and electron densities, and electric fields. These effects span both hemispheres. Given their crucial role in the whole atmosphere, SSWs are also seen as a key process to analyze in climate change studies and subseasonal to seasonal prediction. This work reviews the current knowledge on the most important aspects of SSWs, from the historical background to dynamical processes, modeling, chemistry, and impact on other atmospheric layers.
Plain Language Summary
The stratosphere is the layer of the atmosphere from ∼10 to 50 km, with pressures decreasing to ∼1 hPa (0.1% of surface pressure) at the top. The polar stratosphere during winter is normally very cold, with strong westerly winds. Roughly every 2 years in the Northern Hemisphere, the quiescent vortex suddenly warms over a week or two, and the winds slow dramatically, resulting in easterly winds that are more similar to the summer. These events, known as sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), were discovered in the early 1950s, and today, they are observed in detail by satellites. After several decades researching SSWs, considerable progress has been made in dynamical aspects of SSWs, but our understanding of how they affect both surface weather and the upper atmosphere is incomplete. We observe that variability of the stratospheric circulation (SSWs being an extreme event) is associated with shifts in the jet stream and the paths of storms, with associated effects on rainfall and temperatures. The likelihood of cold weather spells and damaging wind storms is also affected. Almost all SSWs have occurred in the Northern Hemisphere, but there was one spectacular major SSW in 2002 in the Southern Hemisphere.
Key Points
Sudden stratospheric warmings are dramatic events of the polar stratosphere that affect the atmosphere from the surface to the thermosphere
Our understanding of sudden stratospheric warmings has accelerated recently, particularly the predictability of surface weather effects
More observations, improved climate models, and big data methods will address uncertainties in key aspects of sudden stratospheric warmings
The study presents (a) a 44‐year wintertime climatology of resolved gravity wave (GW) fluxes and forcing in the extratropical stratosphere using ERA5, and (b) their composite evolution around gradual ...(final warming) and abrupt (sudden warming) transitions in the wintertime circulation, focusing on lateral fluxes. The transformed Eulerian mean equations are leveraged to provide a glimpse of the importance of GW lateral propagation (i.e., horizontal propagation) toward driving the wintertime stratospheric circulation by analyzing the relative contribution of the vertical versus meridional flux dissipation. The relative contribution from lateral propagation is found to be notable, especially in the Austral winter stratosphere where lateral (vertical) momentum flux convergence provides a peak climatological forcing of up to −0.5 (−3.5) m/s/day around 60°S at 40–45 km altitude. Prominent lateral propagation in the wintertime midlatitudes also contributes to the formation of belts of GW activity in both hemispheres.
Plain Language Summary
Atmospheric Gravity Waves (GWs) are atmospheric disturbances created by processes like convection, thunderstorms, flow over topography, etc. These waves can have wavelengths as small as 1 km to as large as 1,000–2,000 km. Most atmospheric GWs are not resolved in coarse‐resolution climate models. As a result, they are represented in climate models using parameterizations, which are approximate models that can be subject to various idealizations. One such idealization is the assumption of pure vertical propagation of GWs. In this study, we use multidecadal records from ERA5 reanalysis—which combines a high‐resolution model with assimilated observations to produce a close‐to‐observed state of the atmosphere and resolves some of these GWs—to quantify the impact of this assumption on the mean state of the extratropical stratosphere. This is done by extracting GWs from ERA5 data, computing horizontal momentum fluxes carried by these waves, and comparing the net acceleration/deceleration provided by these fluxes on the peak winter stratospheric circulation and key episodes of abrupt changes in the circulation. Analysis using ERA5 reveals that horizontal propagation of GWs can be notable in the midlatitude stratosphere, highlighting the need to develop GW parameterizations that represent this essential property of atmospheric GWs.
Key Points
Climatology of lateral fluxes from ERA5 shows substantial lateral propagation of gravity waves in both hemispheres
Contribution of both lateral and vertical GW fluxes toward zonal wind forcing is the same order of magnitude
Abrupt changes in GW forcing in the upper stratosphere around sudden stratospheric warmings persist even 20 days following the event
Abrupt breakdowns of the polar winter stratospheric circulation such as sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are a manifestation of strong two-way interactions between upward propagating planetary ...waves and the mean flow. The importance of sufficient upward wave activity fluxes from the troposphere and the preceding state of the stratospheric circulation in forcing SSW-like events have long been recognized. Past research based on idealized numerical simulations has suggested that the state of the stratosphere may be more important in generating extreme stratospheric events than anomalous upward wave fluxes from the troposphere. Other studies have emphasized the role of tropospheric precursor events. Here reanalysis data are used to define events of extreme stratospheric mean flow deceleration (SSWs being a subset) and events of extreme lower tropospheric upward planetary wave activity flux. While the wave fluxes leading to SSW-like events ultimately originate near the surface, the anomalous upward wave activity fluxes associated with these events primarily occur within the stratosphere. The crucial dynamics for forcing SSW-like events appear to take place in the communication layer just above the tropopause. Anomalous upward wave fluxes from the lower troposphere may play a role for some events, but seem less important for the majority of them.
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