Levels of fire activity and severity that are unprecedented in the instrumental record have recently been observed in forested regions around the world. Using a large sample of daily fire events and ...hourly climate data, here we show that fire activity in all global forest biomes responds strongly and predictably to exceedance of thresholds in atmospheric water demand, as measured by maximum daily vapour pressure deficit. The climatology of vapour pressure deficit can therefore be reliably used to predict forest fire risk under projected future climates. We find that climate change is projected to lead to widespread increases in risk, with at least 30 additional days above critical thresholds for fire activity in forest biomes on every continent by 2100 under rising emissions scenarios. Escalating forest fire risk threatens catastrophic carbon losses in the Amazon and major population health impacts from wildfire smoke in south Asia and east Africa.
Abstract
There is an imperative for fire agencies to quantify the potential for prescribed burning to mitigate risk to life, property and environmental values while facing changing climates. The ...2019–2020 Black Summer fires in eastern Australia raised questions about the effectiveness of prescribed burning in mitigating risk under unprecedented fire conditions. We performed a simulation experiment to test the effects of different rates of prescribed burning treatment on risks posed by wildfire to life, property and infrastructure. In four forested case study landscapes, we found that the risks posed by wildfire were substantially higher under the fire weather conditions of the 2019–2020 season, compared to the full range of long-term historic weather conditions. For area burnt and house loss, the 2019–2020 conditions resulted in more than a doubling of residual risk across the four landscapes, regardless of treatment rate (mean increase of 230%, range 164–360%). Fire managers must prepare for a higher level of residual risk as climate change increases the likelihood of similar or even more dangerous fire seasons.
Given the contribution of deforestation and forest degradation to the global carbon cycle, forest resources are critical to mitigating the global climate change effects. Improved forest monitoring ...across different biomes is important to understand forest dynamics better and improve global projections of future atmospheric CO
concentration. Better quantification of the forest carbon cycle advances scientific understanding and informs global negotiations about carbon emissions reduction. High-quality estimates of forest carbon stocks are currently scarce in many developing countries. Here, we present the most comprehensive georeferenced data set to date of plot-level forest carbon estimates for Nepal. Based on field observations from Nepal's national forest inventory of 2010-2014; the data set includes estimates for two major forest carbon pools, aboveground biomass (AGB) and soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks from 2,009 and 1,156 inventory plots, respectively. The dataset fills an important knowledge gap about forest carbon stocks in the Central Himalayas, a region with highly heterogeneous environmental conditions and rich biodiversity that is poorly represented in existing global estimates of forest carbon.
Atmospheric carbon dioxide enrichment (eCO
) can enhance plant carbon uptake and growth
, thereby providing an important negative feedback to climate change by slowing the rate of increase of the ...atmospheric CO
concentration
. Although evidence gathered from young aggrading forests has generally indicated a strong CO
fertilization effect on biomass growth
, it is unclear whether mature forests respond to eCO
in a similar way. In mature trees and forest stands
, photosynthetic uptake has been found to increase under eCO
without any apparent accompanying growth response, leaving the fate of additional carbon fixed under eCO
unclear
. Here using data from the first ecosystem-scale Free-Air CO
Enrichment (FACE) experiment in a mature forest, we constructed a comprehensive ecosystem carbon budget to track the fate of carbon as the forest responded to four years of eCO
exposure. We show that, although the eCO
treatment of +150 parts per million (+38 per cent) above ambient levels induced a 12 per cent (+247 grams of carbon per square metre per year) increase in carbon uptake through gross primary production, this additional carbon uptake did not lead to increased carbon sequestration at the ecosystem level. Instead, the majority of the extra carbon was emitted back into the atmosphere via several respiratory fluxes, with increased soil respiration alone accounting for half of the total uptake surplus. Our results call into question the predominant thinking that the capacity of forests to act as carbon sinks will be generally enhanced under eCO
, and challenge the efficacy of climate mitigation strategies that rely on ubiquitous CO
fertilization as a driver of increased carbon sinks in global forests.
Summary
Eastern Australia was subject to its hottest and driest year on record in 2019. This extreme drought resulted in massive canopy die‐back in eucalypt forests. The role of hydraulic failure and ...tree size on canopy die‐back in three eucalypt tree species during this drought was examined.
We measured pre‐dawn and midday leaf water potential (Ψleaf), per cent loss of stem hydraulic conductivity and quantified hydraulic vulnerability to drought‐induced xylem embolism. Tree size and tree health was also surveyed.
Trees with most, or all, of their foliage dead exhibited high rates of native embolism (78–100%). This is in contrast to trees with partial canopy die‐back (30–70% canopy die‐back: 72–78% native embolism), or relatively healthy trees (little evidence of canopy die‐back: 25–31% native embolism). Midday Ψleaf was significantly more negative in trees exhibiting partial canopy die‐back (−2.7 to −6.3 MPa), compared with relatively healthy trees (−2.1 to −4.5 MPa). In two of the species the majority of individuals showing complete canopy die‐back were in the small size classes.
Our results indicate that hydraulic failure is strongly associated with canopy die‐back during drought in eucalypt forests. Our study provides valuable field data to help constrain models predicting mortality risk.
Comprehensive forest carbon accounting requires reliable estimation of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. Despite being an important carbon pool, limited information is available on SOC stocks in ...global forests, particularly for forests in mountainous regions, such as the Central Himalayas. The availability of consistently measured new field data enabled us to accurately estimate forest soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Nepal, addressing a previously existing knowledge gap. Our method involved modelling plot-based estimates of forest SOC using covariates related to climate, soil, and topographic position. Our quantile random forest model resulted in the high spatial resolution prediction of Nepal's national forest SOC stock together with prediction uncertainties. Our spatially explicit forest SOC map showed the high SOC levels in high-elevation forests and a significant underrepresentation of these stocks in global-scale assessments. Our results offer an improved baseline on the distribution of total carbon in the forests of the Central Himalayas. The benchmark maps of predicted forest SOC and associated errors, along with our estimate of 494 million tonnes (SE = 16) of total SOC in the topsoil (0-30 cm) of forested areas in Nepal, carry important implications for understanding the spatial variability of forest SOC in mountainous regions with complex terrains.
Prescribed burning is advocated for the sustainable management of fire-prone ecosystems for its capacity to reduce fuel loads and mitigate large high-intensity wildfires. However, there is a lack of ...comprehensive field evidence on which to base predictions of the benefits of prescribed burning for meeting either wildfire hazard reduction or conservation goals. Australian eucalypt forests are among the very few forest types in the world where prescribed burning has been practised long enough and at a large enough spatial scale to quantify its effect on the incidence and extent of unplanned fires. Nevertheless even for Australian forests evidence of the effectiveness of prescribed burning remains fragmented and largely unpublished in the scientific literature.
We analysed a 52-year fire history from a eucalypt forest region in south-western Australia to quantify the impact of prescribed burning on the incidence, extent and size distribution of wildfires. Quantile regression identified the longevity of the influence of prescribed fire treatments on wildfire incidence and extent. Anomalies in the frequency-size distribution of unplanned fires were identified through a relative risk mapping using kernel density estimates. Changes in the spatial distribution of fuel age were quantified using patch metrics, while generalized additive models were applied to estimate effects of fuel age patterns on the incidence and extent of unplanned fire.
Prescribed burning has pronouncedly changed the spatial distribution of fuel age in the study area and has significantly reduced the incidence and extent of unplanned fires. This effect on both the incidence and extent of unplanned fires was minimal for time lags greater than 6 years between fuel treatment and response. When averaged over 6-year periods, the annual extent of prescribed burning explained 24% and 71% of the variation in the mean annual number and extent of unplanned fires, respectively. The incidence of large unplanned fires was significantly less than the long-term average for the region when the annual extent of prescribed fire was at a maximum and significantly more when the annual extent of prescribed fire was at a minimum. Since the 1960s, the length of time sites remain unburned by wildfire has approximately doubled to ∼9 years. We found that each unit area reduction in unplanned fire required about four units of prescription fire. These findings concur with the observations of experienced field practitioners who identify the 6-year mark as effective at reducing wildfire hazard. Our findings provide strong empirical evidence of the effectiveness of prescribed burning for mitigating wildfire hazard in SW Australian forests. Ongoing research and development is needed to implement managed fire regimes that integrate wildfire mitigation with conservation of biodiversity and other environmental values.
In 2019, south-eastern Australia experienced its driest and hottest year on record, resulting in massive canopy dieback events in eucalypt dominated forests. A subsequent period of high precipitation ...in 2020 provided a rare opportunity to quantify the impacts of extreme drought and consequent recovery. We quantified canopy health and hydraulic impairment (native percent loss of hydraulic conductivity, PLC) of 18 native tree species growing at 15 sites that were heavily impacted by the drought both during and 8-10 months after the drought. Most species exhibited high PLC during drought (PLC:65.1 ± 3.3%), with no clear patterns across sites or species. Heavily impaired trees (PLC > 70%) showed extensive canopy browning. In the post-drought period, most surviving trees exhibited hydraulic recovery (PLC:26.1 ± 5.1%), although PLC remained high in some trees (50-70%). Regained hydraulic function (PLC < 50%) corresponded to decreased canopy browning indicating improved tree health. Similar drought (37.1 ± 4.2%) and post-drought (35.1 ± 4.4%) percentages of basal area with dead canopy suggested that trees with severely compromised canopies immediately after drought were not able to recover. This dataset provides insights into the impacts of severe natural drought on the health of mature trees, where hydraulic failure is a major contributor in canopy dieback and tree mortality during extreme drought events.
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