Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA) has become a vital tool for decision-making for sustainable development, but it faces significant challenges due to the inherent uncertainty of ...socio-ecological systems. Uncertainty arises from multiple sources, such as incomplete data, knowledge gaps, and unpredictable events, which can lead to inadequate risk estimations and potentially undermine the effectiveness of environmental planning efforts. To address these challenges, this study proposes a qualitative modeling approach for risk estimation in PIA. The approach employs Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) to combine qualitative insights and information from stakeholders with available quantitative data. It allows for the exploration of alternative future states of the world and the identification of robust scenarios that promote sustainable development. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated through the Ecological Ordinance of Yucatán, Mexico, a policy-making tool for multi-sectoral environmental planning. The study shows how qualitative DMDU can identify critical uncertainties and provide insights into regional management strategies. It also emphasizes the importance of stakeholder engagement and transparency in the decision-making process. Overall, this study presents a promising approach for addressing multiple forms of uncertainty in PIA and improving ecological risk estimation for decision-making in complex socio-ecological systems.
Vulnerability is a multidimensional concept associated with high uncertainty in measurement and classification. Developing a vulnerability index from the diverse and often incommensurate data that ...form the basis of vulnerability assessments is often a core challenge of vulnerability research. Problematically, many vulnerability indices are based on the implicit or explicit assumption that each indicator of vulnerability is of equal importance. In this paper we propose a procedure to engage constructively with the inherent subjectivity and uncertainty of assigning weights to disparate indicators used in vulnerability assessments, using common tools of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and fuzzy logic. To illustrate our proposed methodology, we present a case study of rural livelihood vulnerability in the state of Tamaulipas, México. In our case study, we combine a livelihoods framework with MCDA to weigh household attributes according to their relative importance in driving household vulnerability. This approach requires the explicit articulation of the relationship of each indicator to the umbrella concept (vulnerability) as well as of each indicator to every other indicator. In recognition of the inherent uncertainties involved in assigning any particular unit of analysis to a specific vulnerability class, we use fuzzy logic to create the final categories of household livelihood vulnerability to climatic risk. Our analysis reveals how different structures of livelihood assets and activities contributes to household sensitivity and capacities in a region characterized by variable climatic conditions, stagnant incomes, increasing market stress and declining farm productivity.
Capacity building is defined as a process by which stakeholders increase their knowledge, skills and resources in order to improve their ability to adapt in a fast-changing world. Universities play a ...key role in the promotion of sustainability and implementation of the 2030 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through capacity building. However, universities in developing countries face significant challenges in the implementation of capacity building programmes for sustainability given the lack of procedures that facilitate the systematic integration of multiple stakeholderś epistemologies, methodologies and objectives. In this paper, we present a capacity building approach as a problem-focused process that follows a multi-domain/multi-stakeholder scheme, and provides alignment with the functions and responsibilities of different sectors of society. The approach involves the use of a decision-support tool for sustainability that enables stakeholders to actively participate in decision-making processes. We illustrate the implementation of the capacity building approach through two case studies and show how general and specific capacities tailored to the different stakeholders can be developed. Our approach to capacity building accentuates the role of universities in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean as research and innovation hubs that could help design and implement flexible, transparent and robust strategies towards achievement of sustainability in the region.
Key policy insights
Capacity building to address the sustainable development goals should aim to develop sets of interlinked capacities for sustainability across stakeholder groups.
Capacity building should take into account the regional institutional contexts in which universities in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean are embedded.
Effective implementation of capacity building must be tailored to the different roles and functions of the actors involved.
Thematic, technical, evaluative and procedural domains provide a comprehensive framework to build capacities, which can be continuously adapted according to the functions and responsibilities of the actors.
Capacity building approaches to address climate change vulnerability require decision-support tools to inform policy-making.
•A critical ecological threshold was determined between simulation years 25 and 50.•Unacceptable risk was reached before the threshold under laissez-faire strategy.•Crossing the threshold increased ...greatly the risk of reducing the whale abundance.•At simulation year 25 there was an average of 60 whale watching boats.•Establishing a legal maximum below 60 whale watching boats reduced the risk.
Policy-making to protect threatened species implies dealing with uncertainty and ignorance. Conservation management of the Eastern gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) population through the regulation of whale watching in the lagoon Ojo de Liebre, Mexico, is a useful example of policy-making challenged by lack of scientific knowledge regarding the negative long-term effects of whale watching. We present a pragmatic approach to provide Mexican authorities the technical information they need to justify the establishment of a maximum number of boats under conditions of deep uncertainty. Operationally, our approach combines system dynamics modelling, to simulate the boats’ impact on the breeding habitat, with ecological risk assessment, to determine the probability of crossing a critical ecological threshold, which is associated to a risk of severely reducing the gray whale abundance in the lagoon. Thus, our approach addresses the issue of establishing a legal maximum number of boats to protect threatened species.
One major challenge of social impact assessment concerns the implementation of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to ascertain the vulnerability of households to environmental change. While MCDA ...has been widely used to combine vulnerability indicators into an aggregated vulnerability score, the sensitivity of vulnerability indices to uncertain appraisals and judgements of the magnitudes and weights of indicators has been largely ignored so far. In this work, based on vulnerability indicators previously selected and ranked using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique, for household Brazil surveys carried out in 1998 and 2012, a sensitivity analysis (SA) was implemented to account for the variation of vulnerability indicators over time and space. In particular, two techniques were applied: the indicator removal and the threshold value tests. The indicator removal test involved setting to zero a particular indicator weight and rescaling the remaining indicator weights linearly. The threshold value test aimed to identify which indicators had the most relative influence on both indices. Finally, the critical threshold value showed the most important vulnerability indicators and allowed to summarise and contrast the standardized scores differences of the indicators between the two surveys. The results showed which indicators were the most important in increasing or decreasing the vulnerability and improved the understanding of how the overall vulnerability of rainfed farming households changed through time as a function of changes in sensitivity and adaptive capacity.
Abstract
Sustainable urban systems (SUS) science is a new science integrating work across established and emerging disciplines, using diverse methods, and addressing issues at local, regional, ...national, and global scales. Advancing SUS requires the next generation of scholars and practitioners to excel at synthesis across disciplines and possess the skills to innovate in the realms of research, policy, and stakeholder engagement. We outline key tenets of graduate education in SUS, informed by historical and global perspectives. The sketch is an invitation to discuss how graduates in SUS should be trained to engage with the challenges and opportunities presented by continuing urbanization.
A segmented approach has not helped to change the negative trend of many of the world's fisheries, making evident the need to venture into a new paradigm: the incorporation of the SES approach, where ...issues such as non-linear ecological dynamics and Human decision making are receiving increasing attention for resource management. Using a correlative modeling approach and employing spatially explicit variables in their contribution to this Research Topic, Torres-Irineo et al. propose that this approach seems appropriate to learn more about the factors that define the spatial distribution of small fleets scale and its potential fishing sites, thereby determining emerging behaviors of the fishing system. Papaioannou et al. combined qualitative interviews with quantitative analysis of fishing records and ecological studies and concluded that following fish is rare, while the most common response was a change in the target species and therefore a change in the composition of the catches; understanding the cultural and regulatory factors behind these emergent adaptive responses will be key for many fisheries facing similar challenges due to climate change. ...this Research Topic presents a work that systematically documents the current understanding of the social sciences of the multiple human dimensions that must be incorporated into ecosystem assessments and the general approach of each of them within of Comprehensive Ecosystem Assessments (CEA) and other ecosystem-based fisheries management efforts (Szymkowiak).
Environmental litigation stemming from human-made disasters associated with large-scale infrastructure investments is commonly initiated by concerned stakeholders seeking environmental justice. The ...investigative process involves Post-Event Environmental Impact Assessments (PEEIA), which entail retrospective analyses heavily reliant on expert judgment to establish the causal nexus between the evidence of environmental damage and the alleged tortious conduct. A key concern within PEEIA pertains to effectively screening expert judgment when the scientific basis is in dispute, given that critical determinants in tort litigation revolve around the reliability and relevance of expert judgment. However, these assessments contend with complex ecosystems, along with discrepancies in the scientific knowledge supporting claims of the tortfeasor's liability. Consequently, the principal challenge of PEEIA lies in effectively navigating the inherent uncertainty surrounding expert judgment.
Here, we introduce a PEEIA approach aimed at evaluating the reliability of expert judgment and managing disputed scientific knowledge. The approach is grounded in abductive reasoning and counterfactual inference. It operationally integrates axiomatization and decision theory techniques, including Weight of Evidence (WoE), Clairvoyance Analysis (CA), and inductive risk. This approach first formalizes alternative and contested expert judgments as a set of hypotheses concerning the causal nexus between evidence of environmental damage and the alleged tortious conduct. Next, a quantitative metric is employed to ascertain the reliability of each hypothesis and discern the best explanation for the evidence of environmental damage.
Display omitted
•Infrastructure investments are being challenged by environmental litigation.•Contested scientific knowledge hinders proving the evidence-tortuous conduct nexus.•Environmental litigation involves post-event EAs, which rely on expert judgment.•Expert judgment is characterized by epistemic and linguistic uncertainty.•Abductive and, counterfactual analysis is used to assess expert judgment reliability.
A promising approach for addressing sustainability problems is to recognize the unique conditions of a particular place, such as problem features and solution capabilities, and adopt and adapt ...solutions developed at other places around the world. Therefore, research and teaching
in international networks
becomes critical, as it allows for accelerating learning by sharing problem understandings, successful solutions, and important contextual considerations. This article identifies eight distinct types of research and teaching collaborations in international networks that can support such accelerated learning. The four research types are, with increasing intensity of collaboration: (1) solution adoption; (2) solution consultation; (3) joint research on different problems; and (4) joint research on similar problems. The four teaching types are, with increasing intensity of collaboration: (1) adopted course; (2) course with visiting faculty; (3) joint course with traveling faculty; and (4) joint course with traveling students. The typology is illustrated by extending existing research and teaching projects on urban sustainability in the International Network of Programs in Sustainability, with partner universities from Europe, North America, Asia, and Africa. The article concludes with challenges and strategies for extending individual projects into collaborations in international networks.
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