We present a "nudged" version of the Met Office general circulation model, the Unified Model. We constrain this global climate model using ERA-40 re-analysis data with the aim of reproducing the ...observed "weather" over a year from September 1999. Quantitative assessments are made of its performance, focusing on dynamical aspects of nudging and demonstrating that the "weather" is well simulated.
An important source of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), which play a crucial role in controlling polar stratospheric ozone depletion, is from the temperature fluctuations induced by mountain waves. ...However, this formation mechanism is usually missing in chemistry–climate models because these temperature fluctuations are neither resolved nor parameterised. Here, we investigate the representation of stratospheric mountain-wave-induced temperature fluctuations by the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM) at climate scale and mesoscale against Atmospheric Infrared Sounder satellite observations for three case studies over the Antarctic Peninsula. At a high horizontal resolution (4 km) the regional mesoscale configuration of the UM correctly simulates the magnitude, timing, and location of the measured temperature fluctuations. By comparison, at a low horizontal resolution (2.5° × 3.75°) the global climate configuration fails to resolve such disturbances. However, it is demonstrated that the temperature fluctuations computed by a mountain wave parameterisation scheme inserted into the climate configuration (which computes the temperature fluctuations due to unresolved mountain waves) are in relatively good agreement with the mesoscale configuration responses for two of the three case studies. The parameterisation was used to include the simulation of mountain-wave-induced PSCs in the global chemistry–climate configuration of the UM. A subsequent sensitivity study demonstrated that regional PSCs increased by up to 50% during July over the Antarctic Peninsula following the inclusion of the local mountain-wave-induced cooling phase.
We report results from two pairs of chemistry-climate model simulations using the same climate model but different chemical perturbations. In each pair of experiments an ozone change was triggered by ...a simple change in the chemistry. One pair of model experiments looked at the impact of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) and the other pair at the impact of short-lived halogenated species on composition and circulation. The model response is complex with both positive and negative changes in ozone concentration, depending on location. These changes result from coupling between composition, temperature and circulation. Even though the causes of the modelled ozone changes are different, the high latitude Southern Hemisphere response in the lower stratosphere is similar. In both pairs of experiments the high-latitude circulation changes, as evidenced by N2O differences, are suggesting a slightly longer-lasting/stronger stratospheric descent in runs with higher ozone destruction (a manifestation of a seasonal shift in the circulation). We contrast the idealised model behaviour with interannual variability in ozone and N2O as observed by the MIPAS instrument on ENVISAT, highlighting similarities of the modelled climate equilibrium changes to the year 2006–2007 in observations. We conclude that the climate system can respond quite sensitively in its seasonal evolution to small chemical perturbations, that circulation adjustments seen in the model can occur in reality, and that coupled chemistry-climate models allow a better assessment of future ozone and climate change than recent CMIP-type models with prescribed ozone fields.
Injection of aerosol particles (or their precursors) into the stratosphere to scatter solar radiation back into space has been suggested as a solar-radiation management scheme for the mitigation of ...global warming. TiO2 has recently been highlighted as a possible candidate particle because of its high refractive index, but its impact on stratospheric chemistry via heterogeneous reactions is as yet unknown. In this work the heterogeneous reaction of airborne sub-micrometre TiO2 particles with N2 O5 has been investigated for the first time, at room temperature and different relative humidities (RH), using an atmospheric pressure aerosol flow tube. The uptake coefficient of N2 O5 onto TiO2 , γ(N2 O5 ), was determined to be ~1.0 × 10-3 at low RH, increasing to ~3 × 10-3 at 60% RH. The uptake of N2 O5 onto TiO2 is then included in the UKCA chemistry-climate model to assess the impact of this reaction on stratospheric chemistry. While the impact of TiO2 on the scattering of solar radiation is chosen to be similar to the aerosol from the Mt Pinatubo eruption, the impact of TiO2 injection on stratospheric N2 O5 is much smaller.
The eruption of Mount Pinatubo produced the largest loading of stratospheric sulphate aerosol in the twentieth century. This heated the tropical lower stratosphere, affecting stratospheric ...circulation, and provided enhanced surface area for heterogeneous chemistry. These factors combined to produce record low values of "global" total ozone column. Though well studied, there remains some uncertainty about the attribution of this low ozone, with contributions from both chemical and dynamical effects. We take a complementary approach to previous studies, nudging the potential temperature and horizontal winds in the new UKCA chemistry climate model to reproduce the atmospheric response and assess the impact on global total ozone. We then combine model runs and observations to distinguish between chemical and dynamical effects. To estimate the effects of increased heterogeneous chemistry on ozone we compare runs with volcanically enhanced and background surface aerosol density. The modelled depletion of global ozone peaks at about 7 DU in early 1993, in good agreement with values obtained from observations. We subtract the modelled aerosol induced ozone loss from the observed ozone record and attribute the remaining variability to `dynamical' effects. The remaining variability is dominated by the QBO. We also examine tropical and mid-latitude ozone, diagnosing contributions from El Niño in the tropics and identifying dynamically driven low ozone in northern mid-latitudes, which we interpret as possible evidence of changes in the QBO. We conclude that, on a global scale, the record lows of extra-polar ozone are produced by the increased heterogeneous chemistry, although there is evidence for dynamics produced low ozone in certain regions, including northern mid-latitudes.
More than a decade ago it was suggested that a cooling of stratospheric temperatures by 1 K or an increase of 1 ppmv of stratospheric water vapour could promote denitrification, the permanent removal ...of nitrogen species from the stratosphere by solid polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) particles. In fact, during the two Arctic winters 2009/10 and 2010/11 the strongest denitrification in the recent decade was observed. Sensitivity studies along air parcel trajectories are performed to test how a future stratospheric water vapour (H2O) increase of 1 ppmv or a temperature decrease of 1 K would affect PSC formation. We perform our study based on measurements made during the Arctic winter 2010/11. Air parcel trajectories were calculated 6 days backward in time based on PSCs detected by CALIPSO (Cloud Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder satellite observations). The sensitivity study was performed on single trajectories as well as on a trajectory ensemble. The sensitivity study shows a clear prolongation of the potential for PSC formation and PSC existence when the temperature in the stratosphere is decreased by 1 K and water vapour is increased by 1 ppmv. Based on 15 years of satellite measurements (2000–2014) from UARS/HALOE, Envisat/MIPAS, Odin/SMR, Aura/MLS, Envisat/SCIAMACHY and SCISAT/ACE-FTS it is further investigated if there is a decrease in temperature and/or increase of water vapour (H2O) observed in the polar regions similar to that observed at midlatitudes and in the tropics. Performing linear regression analyses we derive from the Envisat/MIPAS (2002–2012) and Aura/MLS (2004–2014) observations predominantly positive changes in the potential temperature range 350 to 1000 K. The linear changes in water vapour derived from Envisat/MIPAS observations are largely insignificant, while those from Aura/MLS are mostly significant. For the temperature neither of the two instruments indicate any significant changes. Given the strong inter-annual variation observed in water vapour and particular temperature the severe denitrification observed in 2010/11 cannot be directly related to any changes in water vapour and temperature since the millennium. However, the observations indicate a clear correlation between cold winters and enhanced water vapour mixing ratios. This indicates a connection between dynamical and radiative processes that govern water vapour and temperature in the Arctic lower stratosphere.
The stratospheric climate and variability from simulations of sixteen chemistry‐climate models is evaluated. On average the polar night jet is well reproduced though its variability is less well ...reproduced with a large spread between models. Polar temperature biases are less than 5 K except in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) lower stratosphere in spring. The accumulated area of low temperatures responsible for polar stratospheric cloud formation is accurately reproduced for the Antarctic but underestimated for the Arctic. The shape and position of the polar vortex is well simulated, as is the tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere. There is a wide model spread in the frequency of major sudden stratospheric warnings (SSWs), late biases in the breakup of the SH vortex, and a weak annual cycle in the zonal wind in the tropical upper stratosphere. Quantitatively, “metrics” indicate a wide spread in model performance for most diagnostics with systematic biases in many, and poorer performance in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Correlations were found in the SH between errors in the final warming, polar temperatures, the leading mode of variability, and jet strength, and in the NH between errors in polar temperatures, frequency of major SSWs, and jet strength. Models with a stronger QBO have stronger tropical upwelling and a colder NH vortex. Both the qualitative and quantitative analysis indicate a number of common and long‐standing model problems, particularly related to the simulation of the SH and stratospheric variability.
Atmospheric chemistry is driven by photolytic reactions, making their modelling a crucial component of atmospheric models. We describe the implementation and validation of Fast-JX, a state of the art ...model of interactive photolysis, into the MetUM chemistry-climate model. This allows for interactive photolysis rates to be calculated in the troposphere and augments the calculation of the rates in the stratosphere by accounting for clouds and aerosols in addition to ozone. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of this new photolysis scheme we employ new methods of validating the model, including techniques for sampling the model to compare to flight track and satellite data.
We use observations of N2O and mean age to identify realistic transport in models in order to explain their ozone predictions. The results are applied to 15 chemistry climate models (CCMs) ...participating in the 2010 World Meteorological Organization ozone assessment. Comparison of the observed and simulated N2O, mean age and their compact correlation identifies models with fast or slow circulations and reveals details of model ascent and tropical isolation. This process‐oriented diagnostic is more useful than mean age alone because it identifies models with compensating transport deficiencies that produce fortuitous agreement with mean age. The diagnosed model transport behavior is related to a model's ability to produce realistic lower stratosphere (LS) O3 profiles. Models with the greatest tropical transport problems compare poorly with O3 observations. Models with the most realistic LS transport agree more closely with LS observations and each other. We incorporate the results of the chemistry evaluations in the Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) CCMVal Report to explain the range of CCM predictions for the return‐to‐1980 dates for global (60°S–60°N) and Antarctic column ozone. Antarctic O3 return dates are generally correlated with vortex Cly levels, and vortex Cly is generally correlated with the model's circulation, although model Cl chemistry and conservation problems also have a significant effect on return date. In both regions, models with good LS transport and chemistry produce a smaller range of predictions for the return‐to‐1980 ozone values. This study suggests that the current range of predicted return dates is unnecessarily broad due to identifiable model deficiencies.
Key Points
The trace gas, N2O, is an transport diagnostic
Observations can be used to evaluate model transport
Models with poor transport produce a wide range of ozone predictions
We use a stratosphere–troposphere composition–climate model with interactive sulfur chemistry and aerosol microphysics, to investigate the effect of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption on stratospheric ...aerosol properties. Satellite measurements indicate that shortly after the eruption, between 14 and 23 Tg of SO2 (7 to 11.5 Tg of sulfur) was present in the tropical stratosphere. Best estimates of the peak global stratospheric aerosol burden are in the range 19 to 26 Tg, or 3.7 to 6.7 Tg of sulfur assuming a composition of between 59 and 77 % H2SO4. In light of this large uncertainty range, we performed two main simulations with 10 and 20 Tg of SO2 injected into the tropical lower stratosphere. Simulated stratospheric aerosol properties through the 1991 to 1995 period are compared against a range of available satellite and in situ measurements. Stratospheric aerosol optical depth (sAOD) and effective radius from both simulations show good qualitative agreement with the observations, with the timing of peak sAOD and decay timescale matching well with the observations in the tropics and mid-latitudes. However, injecting 20 Tg gives a factor of 2 too high stratospheric aerosol mass burden compared to the satellite data, with consequent strong high biases in simulated sAOD and surface area density, with the 10 Tg injection in much better agreement. Our model cannot explain the large fraction of the injected sulfur that the satellite-derived SO2 and aerosol burdens indicate was removed within the first few months after the eruption. We suggest that either there is an additional alternative loss pathway for the SO2 not included in our model (e.g. via accommodation into ash or ice in the volcanic cloud) or that a larger proportion of the injected sulfur was removed via cross-tropopause transport than in our simulations. We also critically evaluate the simulated evolution of the particle size distribution, comparing in detail to balloon-borne optical particle counter (OPC) measurements from Laramie, Wyoming, USA (41° N). Overall, the model captures remarkably well the complex variations in particle concentration profiles across the different OPC size channels. However, for the 19 to 27 km injection height-range used here, both runs have a modest high bias in the lowermost stratosphere for the finest particles (radii less than 250 nm), and the decay timescale is longer in the model for these particles, with a much later return to background conditions. Also, whereas the 10 Tg run compared best to the satellite measurements, a significant low bias is apparent in the coarser size channels in the volcanically perturbed lower stratosphere. Overall, our results suggest that, with appropriate calibration, aerosol microphysics models are capable of capturing the observed variation in particle size distribution in the stratosphere across both volcanically perturbed and quiescent conditions. Furthermore, additional sensitivity simulations suggest that predictions with the models are robust to uncertainties in sub-grid particle formation and nucleation rates in the stratosphere.
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