We develop and use a medium-sized DSGE model of the U.S. economy to evaluate how U.S. real GDP responds to oil price movements that originate from global oil supply shocks. The core of the model is a ...standard macroeconomic DSGE framework that includes nominal and real frictions. The model includes oil as an input in multiple domestic sectors (consumption, intermediate goods, and transportation services). We include a domestic oil production sector for the United States to reflect the recent development in shale oil technology. The model also captures international trade in goods and oil. The model parameters are set through a combination of calibration and Bayesian estimation using quarterly data for 1991 through 2015. Baseline estimation of the model finds the elasticity of U.S. real GDP with respect to an oil price shock of − 0.015, which is among the less elastic estimates in the literature. Using the model to conduct counterfactual analysis, we find that decreasing steady state U.S. oil consumption substantially reduces the response of real GDP to oil prices. Increasing U.S. domestic oil production only modestly reduces the response of real GDP to oil prices.
•Model of U.S. economy with roles for oil in production and transportation services.•Models U.S. and rest of world oil demand and oil production.•Estimate the elasticity of U.S. GDP to oil price changes due to oil supply shock.•Reduced U.S. oil use lowers the sensitivity of GDP to oil supply shocks.
The Fontan operation was first performed in 1968. Since then, this operation has been performed on thousands of patients worldwide. Results vary from very good for many decades to very bad with a ...pleiad of complications and early death. A good understanding of the physiology is necessary to further improve results. The Fontan connection creates a critical bottleneck with obligatory upstream congestion and downstream decreased flow; these two features are the basic cause of the majority of the physiologic impairments of this circulation. The ventricle, while still the engine of the circuit, cannot compensate for the major flow restriction of the Fontan bottleneck: the suction required to compensate for the barrier effect cannot be generated, specifically not in a deprived heart. Except for some extreme situations, the heart therefore no longer controls cardiac output nor can it significantly alter the degree of systemic venous congestion. Adequate growth and development of the pulmonary arteries is extremely important as pulmonary vascular impedance will become the major determinant of Fontan outcome. Key features of the Fontan ventricle are early volume overload and overgrowth, but currently chronic preload deprivation with increasing filling pressures. A functional decline of the Fontan circuit is expected and observed as pulmonary vascular resistance and ventricular filling pressure increase with time. Treatment strategies will only be successful if they open up or bypass the critical bottleneck or act on immediate surroundings (impedance of the Fontan neoportal system, fenestration, enhanced ventricular suction).
This article analyzes the rise and fall of the aid effectiveness norm, using the lens of Finnemore and Sikkink’s norm ‘life cycle’. I argue that, although donors and recipients endorsed the founding ...principles, the norm was only feebly internalized: they were unwilling to overcome their reluctance—and important disincentives—to substantially change their practices on the ground. After the norm cascaded, the donor-led process sought to gain legitimacy and diffuse the norm more broadly by trying to bring in a wider range of actors through norm substitution. These changes failed to convince emerging donors to engage and caused the norm to decay to the point where it ceased to constitute a norm. This case highlights the importance of refining the life cycle model to take into account weak internalization and the potential existence of a second phase in which norms decline and potentially die.
OPEC and world oil security Brown, Stephen P.A.; Huntington, Hillard G.
Energy policy,
09/2017, Letnik:
108
Journal Article
Recenzirano
On the margin, the effectiveness of policy to enhance the stability of world oil market oil conditions greatly depends on which countries supply what economists would call the “marginal barrels.” ...That is, the barrels whose production responds to changes in demand. If the countries dominating the production of the marginal barrels are relatively unstable, policies to reduce world oil consumption or boost oil production from stable suppliers will provide the additional benefit of reducing the contribution of unstable producers to the world oil market. If the countries dominating the marginal barrel are relatively stable, however, policies to reduce world oil consumption or boost oil production from stable suppliers will be less effective in promoting oil market stability.
Typically, we think of the highest cost producers as supplying the marginal barrel of oil, but our assessment finds it quite likely that OPEC dominates production of the marginal barrel of world oil. Moreover, OPEC members have been among the more unstable producers on a historical basis. Hence, reducing world oil consumption and promoting oil production in stable non-OPEC countries will enhance world oil security. Policies to promote stability in OPEC countries also would enhance world oil security.
•Historically, OPEC members have been among the more unstable oil producers.•OPEC's exercise of market power increases its share of the marginal barrel of oil.•Reducing world consumption would enhance world oil security.•Increasing non-OPEC sources of oil would enhance world oil security.•Promoting stability in OPEC countries would enhance world oil security.
Could some vaccines drive the evolution of more virulent pathogens? Conventional wisdom is that natural selection will remove highly lethal pathogens if host death greatly reduces transmission. ...Vaccines that keep hosts alive but still allow transmission could thus allow very virulent strains to circulate in a population. Here we show experimentally that immunization of chickens against Marek's disease virus enhances the fitness of more virulent strains, making it possible for hyperpathogenic strains to transmit. Immunity elicited by direct vaccination or by maternal vaccination prolongs host survival but does not prevent infection, viral replication or transmission, thus extending the infectious periods of strains otherwise too lethal to persist. Our data show that anti-disease vaccines that do not prevent transmission can create conditions that promote the emergence of pathogen strains that cause more severe disease in unvaccinated hosts.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
We investigate the role of economic uncertainty in the cross-sectional pricing of individual stocks and equity portfolios. We estimate stock exposure to an economic uncertainty index and show that ...stocks in the lowest uncertainty beta decile generate 6% more annualized risk-adjusted return compared to stocks in the highest uncertainty beta decile. We find that the uncertainty premium is driven by the outperformance (underperformance) by stocks with negative (positive) uncertainty beta. Our results indicate that uncertainty-averse investors demand extra compensation to hold stocks with negative uncertainty beta and they are willing to pay high prices for stocks with positive uncertainty beta.
This research examines how branded service encounters, in which frontline service employee behavior is aligned with a firm's brand positioning, may positively affect customer responses to brands. ...Across two brand personality contexts, Study 1 demonstrates that employee—brand alignment increases overall brand evaluations and customer-based brand equity, with more pronounced results for unfamiliar brands. Study 2 shows that conceptual fluency underlies the effect of employee-brand alignment on overall brand evaluations for unfamiliar brands. Study 3 reveals that employee authenticity enhances the effectiveness of employee-brand alignment. Finally, a critical incident study (Study 4) extends the generalizability of these findings to a wider variety of service contexts. This research is the first to demonstrate how firms can leverage employee behavior as a brand-building advantage, particularly for new or unfamiliar brands as they establish their positioning with customers.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that U.S. natural gas prices will provide a substantial cost advantage over petroleum products as a transportation fuel during the next 30+ ...years. Although U.S. natural gas prices closely tracked those of world oil prices from the mid-1990s to early 2009, U.S. natural gas prices have been much lower relative to those for oil since early 2009. The break owes to technological change that substantially increased the supply of U.S. shale gas resources.
Although recent weakness in world oil prices has restored at least some temporary comparability between U.S. natural gas prices and those for petroleum products, EIA projects U.S. natural gas prices will rise more slowly as world oil prices recover. Relatively weaker gains in U.S. natural gas prices would support the substitution of natural gas for other fuels—such as petroleum products in transportation—whether such substitution is driven by business or policy decisions. Will U.S. natural gas prices be sustainably lower relative to those for petroleum products so as to support the increased use of natural gas in the transportation sector? An interpretative review of current market developments and recent research finds the answer is yes.
•U.S. natural gas prices are likely to remain below parity with world oil prices.•Plentiful shale resources have increased US natural gas supply.•Low U.S. natural gas prices fosters increased domestic use and LNG exports.•Projected prices favor increased use of LNG in highway transportation.•Low natural gas prices will support US policies for increased natural gas consumption.
In recent years, the United States has become much more self-reliant in producing oil, and a newer economics literature suggests that oil demand may be more elastic and U.S. GDP may be less sensitive ...to world oil price shocks than was previously estimated. These developments suggest somewhat lower security costs may be associated with U.S. oil consumption. This analysis provides updated estimates of the security premiums for U.S. consumption of imported oil, U.S. consumption of domestically produced oil, and the substitution of imported oil for domestically produced oil. Estimates of the expected security costs of U.S. oil consumption are provided over the time horizon from 2015 to 2040, while taking into account projected world oil market conditions, the probabilities and sizes of world oil supply disruptions, the response of world oil prices to those supply disruptions, and the response of U.S. real GDP to those oil price shocks. The estimated oil security premiums suggest that U.S. oil security has become less of a policy concern.
•United States has become more self-reliant in producing oil.•New research suggests U.S. GDP may be less sensitive to oil supply disruptions.•Reduced estimates of security costs of U.S. oil consumption.•U.S. oil security may have become less of a concern.
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