The aim of this research is to assess what would happen with the business cycle synchronization in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), if all new EU member states introduced the euro. In addition, ...the paper aims to explore how business cycle correlations have evolved over time. The assumption is that, if business cycles in the EMU members are not correlated and the state of integration remains as it is, the ECB?s one-size-fits-all policy will require members to follow policies which are politically difficult to implement. Hence, we are analyzing whether the EMU should stop accepting new entrants in order to stop deteriorating mutual business cycle correlation. Results based on correlations of shocks between the EMU and individual countries and their sizes show that correlation of supply shocks would remain relatively high if all members introduced the euro, but low correlation of demand shocks, different sizes of shocks and transmission of shocks still remain as significant problems.
nema
COVID-19 has brought severe adverse effects on the economy and labour markets across the globe. Due to the nature of the crisis, firms in service sectors with frequent interactions among consumers or ...between consumers and providers have been particularly affected. Since these sectors predominately rely on female workers, higher propensities for female workers to be either laid-off or furloughed were expected. Hence, we explore gender differences in lay-offs and furloughs in European post-transition economies during the COVID-19 pandemic. Results confirm adverse labour market effects for female workers. More precisely, firms in post-transition countries are disproportionally more likely to dismiss female workers if they have recorded sales decrease and if the firm is larger and older. Surprisingly, firms in the manufacturing sector are more prone to shedding female workers or including them in furlough schemes, probably related do competitiveness and supply chain disruptions issues. Regarding restrictive COVID measures, we have established that closing restaurants and bars, gyms and sports centres, as well as the closure of entertainment venues, are creating adverse conditions for female workers.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Digitalna transformacija utječe na mnoge aspekte svjetske ekonomije. Ona podiže gospodarski rast, utječe na inozemna izravna ulaganja te povećava trgovinsku razmjenu. Stoga je cilj ovoga rada ...analizirati digitalnu transformaciju i gospodarsku suradnju izmed strok signu zemalja zapadnog Balkana. Metodologija istraživanja zasniva se na dva pokazatelja: harmoniziranom indeksu gospodarske suradnje izmed strok signu zemalja zapadnog Balkana i pokazatelju konvergencije digitalne transformacije. Rezultati ukazuju na rastući trend gospodarske suradnje izmed strok signu zemalja zapadnog Balkana, s tim da u suradnji dominira vanjska trgovina. Iako su zemlje zapadnog Balkana iskusile povećanu konvergenciju u digitalnoj transformaciji, one i dalje zaostaju za EU u upotrebi digitalnih tehnologija. Stoga, stavljanje naglaska na digitalnu transformaciju bi potencijalno moglo povećati regionalni BDP i time gospodarsku suradnju izmed strok signu zemalja zapadnog Balkana.
Post transition economies carry the legacy of previous system, supposed to have collapsed in partly due to inability to sustain innovation and technical progress. In terms of innovation activity, ...they still lag behind advanced market economies. This brings the issue of total factor productivity (TFP) for these countries/industries/firms in focus of research interest. Relying on the TFP firm-level estimates from the World Bank’ Enterprise Survey dataset, we analyse the main contributing factors in following post-transition economies: Georgia, Turkey, Ukraine, Russia, Romania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, FYR Macedonia, Mongolia, Slovenia and Croatia. The potential determinants include variables frequently named in the literature: R&D efforts, human capital, ICT investment, competition (product market regulation) and international trade. The data for the TFP determinants is drawn from Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (BEEPS V), which includes both objective variables and perceptions of firms’ management. Since many objective variables are simultaneously determined with our dependent variable, we argue that by relying on perceptions we omit the endogeneity issue. In addition to aggregate firm-level TFP determinants, we also distinguish between the manufacturing and service sector. The aim of the research is to emphasize the structural differences between these two segments of post-transition economies.
Cilj ovog istraživanja je utvrditi koliko međusobno ulažu zemlje jugoistočne Europe. Naime, postojeća istraživanja nisu usmjerena na analizu otkuda potječu inozemna izravna ulaganja u zemljama ...jugoistočne Europe - iz drugih zemalja jugoistočne Europe ili iz ostalih zemalja? Zbog toga je u ovom radu fokus stavljen na zemlje jugoistočne Europe kako bi se istražila struktura inozemnih izravnih ulaganja, kao i njihova međusobna povezanost u pogledu inozemnih izravnih ulaganja. Osim toga, cilj rada je konstruirati indeks inozemnih izravnih ulaganja kako bi ustanovili kako se njihova suradnja u ovom području kretala kroz vrijeme. Rezultati pokazuju da inozemna izravna ulaganja u zemlje regije većinom dolaze iz članica EU, dok su međuregionalna izravna ulaganja još uvijek relativno slabo zastupljena. Ipak, indeks inozemnih izravnih ulaganja temeljen na stanju inozemnih izravnih ulaganja ukazuje na kontinuirano povećanje regionalne suradnje. Suradnja između zemalja jugoistočne Europe, iako nominalno niska, ostvaruje značajno više stope rasta od suradnje ove regije s ostatkom svijeta, što ukazuje na interes regije za produbljivanjem zajedničke suradnje.
We study the degree of business cycle similarity between the Central and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries and the Eurozone members. The special emphasis is put on the differences between ...countries that have already joined the European Union and those that are in different stages of integration. We introduce a specific measure of business cycle synchronisation by comparing the evolution of the growth rates in country pairs and further seek to identify determinants of these synchronisation patterns using pooled probit model. The results of the analysis have indicated that the real effective exchange rate seems to be an important predictor of synchronisation between CESSEE countries and the original Eurozone members. Our results have also indicated that trade becomes important synchronisation factor only for the countries that became EU members during the analysed period. The trade creation possibilities emerging from the common market seem to change the trade patterns in countries that became the EU members during the analysed period and contribute positively to the overall business synchronisation. This result seems encouraging for the EU aspiring countries.
The aim of the paper is to explore the role of trade in aligning the synchronisation patterns between the South Eastern European (see) countries - Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, ...FYR of Macedonia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Romania and Serbia - and members of the euro area. More precisely, we investigate whether bilateral trade flows affect output synchronisation between the euro area countries and see countries and compare trade-synchronisation patterns between the see countries and new member states that have not yet introduced the euro (NMS). The results show that the levels of output similarities between the see countries and NMS are different and that the see countries exhibit lower output correlation with the euro area members than the NMS. Exploring the role of trade in aligning growth patterns has in some cases found positive effects, much stronger for the see countries, which have lower trade intensity levels. We argue that the reason for these results is related to the fact that other factors could be dominant in the NMS countries (policy measures alignment within the EU), while for the see countries only trade relationships had the opportunity to exert noticeable effects in the analysed period.
Banks sometimes respond to deterioration in the quality of their placements by extending loan repayment periods to borrowers in default and hiding the actual quality of placements, hoping that ...difficulties of borrowers are only temporary. This practice is termed evergreening or zombie lending. Due to a prolonged recession and stagnation coupled with relatively high share of non-performing loans, such practice may be occurring in Europe nowadays. We use data for Croatia, a country that fought recession for several years, to study the existence of zombie lending practice. We analyse credit supply to individual enterprises in Croatia at the beginning and in the midst of the recent crisis and determine to what extent zombie lending is present and how lending behaviour changed during the crisis period. Results of the estimated regressions indicate that there is evidence that some of the loans being prolonged are the result of zombie lending practices. This implies that policymakers should be aware of the possibility of such a relationship between banks and firms, as well as of its impact, and should try to minimise it.
Cilj je ovog rada analizirati zadružno gospodarstvo u Hrvatskoj kako bi se utvrdilo u kojoj je mjeri ono prisutno, kako posluje te ukazati na probleme koji bi aktivnijim bavljenjem tim područjem ...mogli biti ublaženi. Analiza je pokazala da je taj segment gospodarstva u Hrvatskoj razvijen daleko manje nego što bi to objektivno bilo moguće. Zadruge obuhvaćaju vrlo malen dio hrvatskog gospodarstva te uz to u prosjeku imaju slabije poslovne pokazatelje od ostatka gospodarstva. Međutim, budući da zadruge mogu povećati učinkovitost poslovanja članova zadruge, postoji velik neiskorišteni gospodarski potencijal, koji se sastoji od mogućnosti udruživanja pojedinih poduzetnika u zadruge.
Factors explaining productivity growth include internal and external categories, such as quality of management and labour, product innovation and competition. However, ownership structure is rarely ...mentioned as a potential factor for impacting productivity growth. On the other hand, it is often assumed that private firms are more productive than state-owned, the argument frequently additionally emphasized in the public discussions in (post)transition economies. Since aggregate data hides developments in individual sectors, it is important to investigate the relationship between ownership and productivity on the industry level. Hence, in this article we investigate trends in productivity related to the ownership structure across industries using data for Croatia both during the boom and recession phase. Results show higher increases in productivity in the observed period in the public, not private, sector and that TFP path at the sectoral level in the state-owned firms is more erratic than in the private segment of the economy.
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