The pension system of the Republic of Croatia is subject to frequent inquiries, which can be summed up in two basic directions: the question of its financing, ie the rate of pension contributions ...that negatively affect the competitiveness of the economy, and the issue of pensions paid, which are often perceived as insufficient for the dignified life of pension beneficiaries. However, in the long run, the pension system will face the need for a thorough reform that will be caused by the longer life expectancy of the population and the increasing negative demographic tendencies that are particularly pronounced in the Republic of Croatia. The current contribution-based pension system will be less and less able to service its growing demands, and the reform needs to achieve two apparently conflicting goals: efficient financing while stimulating the competitiveness of the Croatian economy. It will be possible to achieve this by carefully devising a change in the tax structure and shifting the focus from income taxation to consumption taxation.
Mirovinski sustav Republike Hrvatske podložan je čestim propitivanjima koja se mogu svesti u dva temeljna smjera: pitanje njegovog financiranja, odnosno stopa doprinosa mirovinskog osiguranja koji negativno utječu na konkurentnost gospodarstva te pitanje visine isplaćenih mirovina koje su vrlo često percipirane kao nedovoljne za dostojanstveni život korisnika mirovina. Međutim, u dugom roku, mirovinski sustav suočit će se s potrebom temeljite reforme koju će uzrokovati sve dulji životni vijek stanovništva te sve izraženije negativne demografske tendencije koje su u Republici Hrvatskoj osobito snažno izražene. Sadašnji način financiranja mirovinskog sustava temeljen na doprinosima sve će manje biti u stanju servisirati njegove rastuće zahtjeve pa reformom treba postići dva naoko suprotstavljena cilja: učinkovito financiranje uz istovremeni poticajni utjecaj na konkurentnost hrvatskog gospodarstva. To će biti moguće ostvariti pažljivim osmišljanjem promjene porezne strukture i premještanjem težišta s oporezivanja dohotka prema oporezivanju potrošnje.
In Croatia, the social security system is based on generational solidarity, i.e. payment of contributions, which is known as pay as you go (PAYG), but the balance of its functioning is permanently ...and significantly disturbed by long-term unfavourable demographic processes. Projections show that the worrying demographic situation will deteriorate even further and that, with low birth and fertility rates and negative natural growth, negative net migration will contribute to further depopulation. In addition, contributions directly burden labour, i.e. they increase labour costs for employers and reduce their competitiveness in the marketplace, affecting economic growth. The paper reviews empirical research on the impact of different tax structures on economic growth, the sublimated conclusion of which is that direct taxes have a negative effect on growth, while indirect taxes are neutral. The Croatian tax system, with VAT as the main factor in the tax structure, is focused on taxing consumption, but is also characterized by a high level of levies. In this paper, the authors use the vector autoregression model to analyse the relationship between economic growth and the changed tax structure of the Republic of Croatia, in which the role of indirect taxes would be more emphasized. Data in model are consist of different types of taxes, GDPpc, population growth, gross fixed capital formation, unemployment rate and cover the time period from 2004 to 2019. The authors prove that the reduction of the tax burden through direct taxes has positive economic, demographic and fiscal effects.
The aim of this paper is to present the manipulation possibilities in the operation of information technology. Many authors have already dealt with cryptocurrencies and their investment potential, ...with special emphasis on bitcoin. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to identify possible manipulative activities in the segment of information technology about bitcoin as a possible means of fraud in the financial market, especially if it is analysed the trend of its movement and potential financial risk. In this paper, the authors investigate in detail the characteristics of securities by linking them to market manipulations. The authors analyse bitcoin as a relative market and financial unknown, explain its origin and the most significant characteristics, and define the risks in terms of possible market manipulations. Finally, the authors analyse the financial bubble that is created around bitcoin and its impact on the economy. The authors analyse that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are still suitable for fraudulent activities in financial markets and emphasize the importance of institutions in reducing potential risks. Keywords: bitcoin, institutions, bubble
The aim of this paper is to present the manipulation possibilities in the operation of information technology. Many authors have already dealt with cryptocurrencies and their investment potential, ...with special emphasis on bitcoin. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to identify possible manipulative activities in the segment of information technology about bitcoin as a possible means of fraud in the financial market, especially if it is analysed the trend of its movement and potential financial risk. In this paper, the authors investigate in detail the characteristics of securities by linking them to market manipulations. The authors analyse bitcoin as a relative market and financial unknown, explain its origin and the most significant characteristics, and define the risks in terms of possible market manipulations. Finally, the authors analyse the financial bubble that is created around bitcoin and its impact on the economy. The authors analyse that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are still suitable for fraudulent activities in financial markets and emphasize the importance of institutions in reducing potential risks.
Turizam i djelatnosti povezane s turizmom značajan su čimbenik hrvatskog
gospodarstva, s jasnim naznakama nastavka takvih trendova i u budućnosti. Istraživanja pokazuju kako se udio turizma u ...hrvatskom bruto
domaćem proizvodu povećao, a sve su više primjetna nastojanja za podizanjem kvalitete turističke ponude i produžavanja turističke sezone.
Nositelji takvih inicijativa od kojih se očekuju povećani povrati u dugom roku zasad su uglavnom turistička poduzeća s najvećim financijskim
potencijalom. U ovom radu autori istražuju je li kretanje cijene dionica takvih trgovačkih društava povezano s povećanim prihodima u vrijeme sezone, odnosno je li kretanje cijene povezano sa sezonskim oscilacijama ili je povezano s njihovom dugoročnom poslovnom politikom. Istraživanje je pokazalo da sezonske promjene imaju određeni utjecaj, ali nedovoljan da značajnije determiniraju kretanje cijene vrijednosnica
na financijskom tržištu promatranih poduzeća. Unatoč značajnom povećanju prihoda, trend je silazan, a naznake njegovog obrata u kratkom
i srednjem roku nisu uočene, što može ukazivati na nepovjerenje ulagača
u takav oblik razvoja turističkih poduzeća.
Tourism and tourism-related activities are a significant factor in the Croatian economy, with clear indications of the continuation of such trends in the future. Research shows that the share of tourism in the Croatian gross domestic product has increased, and efforts to raise the quality of the tourist offer and extend the tourist season are becoming more noticeable. Holders of such initiatives, which are expected to increase long-term returns, are currently mostly tourism companies with the highest financial potential. In this paper, the authors investigate whether the movement in the stock price of such companies is associated with increased revenues during the season, that is, whether the price movement is related to seasonal fluctuations or is related to their long-term business policy. The research has shown that seasonal changes have some influence, but not sufficient to significantly determine the price movement of securities in the financial market of observed enterprises. Despite a significant increase in revenue, the trend is downward and indications of its turnaround have not been observed in the short and medium term, which may indicate investors’ lack of confidence in this form of tourism business development.
The aim of this paper is to research, theoretically and empirically, the impact of institutional reforms on economic growth in transition countries (new European Union members) and Croatia, in the ...period from 1996 to 2012. In order to prove the hypothesis, we will use panel analysis of transition economies and Croatia, namely the Arellano-Bond dynamic panel analysis. The analysis includes two dependent variables (gross domestic product per capita G.D.P./p.c.and the share of export in G.D.P.) and five independent variables (total Heritage Index of Economic Freedom, Worldwide Governance Indicators (W.G.I.) government effectiveness indicator, W.G.I. rule of law indicator, corruption perception index and the index of institutional reforms in transition countries). The results show that there is a significant positive impact of institutional reforms on the economic growth of transition countries and Croatia, which creates preconditions that are essential for the future growth rate of the Croatian economy.
Procesi financijske intermedijacije imali su važnu ulogu u transformaciji zemalja CEE-a u tržišne ekonomije. Intervencije države u mobiliziranju i alociranju financijskih resursa prepoznate su kao ...efikasan i brz put k razvijanju financijskih sustava. Stoga su nositelji
ekonomske politike usmjerili svoje napore k osiguranju bazičnih zakonodavnih okvira i potrebne infrastrukture, kao i dizajniranju i implementiranju primjerenih strukturnih reformi. Uz navedeno, razvoj sustava potaknut je i adekvatnim institucijskim okvirom. Institucijskom promjenom može se smatrati proces koji dovodi do rasta institucija i njihovog kvalitativnog razvoja. U početku tranzicijskog procesa, gospodarstva CEE-a i institucije bili su značajno određeni tradicijom i nasljeđem bankocentričnog sustava, kao i izostankom ostalih financijskih
institucija i tržišta, a ujedno je razvoj institucija dosegnuo različite razine napretka. Razvoj financijskih tržišta i institucijskih investitora kao alternative klasičnom i dominirajućem bankovnom financiranju, u zemljama CEE-a u velikoj mjeri bio je potaknut strukturnim reformama od kojih se posebno ističu privatizacija i uvođenje mirovinskog sustava kapitalizirane štednje, jačanje supervizorskih struktura i različitih modaliteta fiskalne konsolidacije.
Cilj rada je ukazati na važnost odabira i implementiranja strukturnih reformi koje pridonose razvoju financijskog sustava i napretku ekonomija
CEE-a.
The processes of financial intermediation had an important role in the transformation of CEE countries into a market economy. Government interventions in mobilizing and allocating financial resources are recognized as an efficient and fast way for developing financial systems. Policy makers have the highest responsibility since they need to ensure not only basic legislative and institutional frameworks, but also need to design and implement adequate structural reforms. All this should be accompanied by an incentive institutional framework. Institutional changes can be regarded as a process that leads to the growth of institutions and their qualitative development. In the beginning of the transition process, economies and institutions were largely determined by the tradition and heritage with the development of institutions reaching different levels of progress. The development of financial markets and institutional investors, as alternatives of classical and prevailing bank financing in CEE countries, have largely been driven by structural reforms, of which the most important are: privatization and pension reform and the introduction of the pension system funded savings, a government bond issue in the domestic market, strengthening supervisory structures and tax reform. The aim of this paper is to point
out to the importance of planning and implementing structural reforms which contribute to the development of the financial sector and the progress of the CEE countries.
Financijska tržišta bitna su sastavnica gospodarskog okruženja, a njihova kretanja često su izučavale različite interesne skupine. Premda nije moguće s potpunom sigurnošću predvidjeti kretanja na ...financijskim tržištima, zahvaljujući razvoju znanosti i tehnologije danas postoje analitički protokoli i alati kojima se ta kretanja ipak mogu kvantificirati, uvažavajući pritom određena ograničenja te određenu razinu rizika. Autori u radu istražuju kretanje cijene dionice grupacije
Đuro Đaković d. d. te upotrebom pouzdanih pokazatelja tehničke analize izvode zaključke o budućim kretanjima trendova i budućim cjenovnim razinama u kratkom, dugom i srednjem roku, s ciljem primjene rezultata na donošenje odluka u investicijskim procesima. U svakom od promatranih razdoblja autori uočavaju prisutnost negativnog trenda. Ovakvi su rezultati začuđujući, uzme li se u obzir relativno povoljan položaj poduzeća na tržištu te njegova relativna gospodarska snaga. Ipak, analiza momentuma, indeksa relativne snage i MACD signala ukazuje na naznake slabljenja negativnog trenda u kratkom i srednjem razdoblju, dok
se oporavak i porast na eventualne više cjenovne razine mogu očekivati tek u dužem roku
Financial markets are an essential component of the economic environment, and their trends are often studied by various interest groups. Although it is not possible to predict with complete certainty the trends in financial markets, owing to the development of science and
technology today there are analytical protocols and tools that can quantify these trends while respecting certain limits and a certain level of risk. The authors investigate stock price movements of the group Đuro Đaković d.d. applying reliable indicators of technical analysis, they draw conclusions on future trends and future price levels
in the short, long and medium term, with the aim of applying results to
decision-making in investment processes. In each of the observed periods, the authors notice the presence of a negative trend. Such results are surprising given a relatively favorable position of the company on the market and its relative economic strength. Nevertheless, the analysis of momentum, the relative strength index and the MACD signal show the signs of weakening the negative trend in the short and medium term, while recovering and increasing to more price levels can be
expected in the longer term.
Mirovinski sustav Republike Hrvatske podložan je čestim propitivanjima koja se mogu svesti u dva
temeljna smjera: pitanje njegovog financiranja, odnosno stopa doprinosa mirovinskog osiguranja koji
...negativno utječu na konkurentnost gospodarstva te pitanje visine isplaćenih mirovina koje su vrlo često
percipirane kao nedovoljne za dostojanstveni život korisnika mirovina. Međutim, u dugom roku, mirovinski
sustav suočit će se s potrebom temeljite reforme koju će uzrokovati sve dulji životni vijek stanovništva
te sve izraženije negativne demografske tendencije koje su u Republici Hrvatskoj osobito snažno izražene.
Sadašnji način financiranja mirovinskog sustava temeljen na doprinosima sve će manje biti u stanju
servisirati njegove rastuće zahtjeve pa reformom treba postići dva naoko suprotstavljena cilja: učinkovito
financiranje uz istovremeni poticajni utjecaj na konkurentnost hrvatskog gospodarstva. To će biti moguće
ostvariti pažljivim osmišljanjem promjene porezne strukture i premještanjem težišta s oporezivanja dohotka
prema oporezivanju potrošnje.
In modern economies, the demographic determinants of the population represent an important factor in its growth. The age and educational structure, but even more so the tendencies of future trends, ...are important for making strategic decisions at the state level concerning current and future economic growth and overall development. Since the second half of the last century, Croatia has been facing the problem of an aging population, and the processes of demographic transition took place in unfavorable economic and social conditions. These processes have led to an almost unsustainable demographic situation that prevails today, but the consequences of which will be fully felt in the next few decades. Fertility rates are far below the level that would ensure simple reproduction, and an additional problem was compounded by the noticeable outflow of a large number of people from the working and fertile contingent. Although the emigration of young people seems to have stopped, no significant return has yet been observed. As a result of all this, today the Republic of Croatia is characterized by a very unfavorable demographic situation and worrying demographic trends. This further calls into question the future way of financing the pension and health system, as well as the functioning of the economy in the medium, but especially in the long term. Since economic growth requires a stable demographic structure, population policy is set as one of the priorities of the economic policy of the Republic of Croatia, as well as a strategic priority of its overall policies. In the paper, the authors investigate the determinants of the demographic structure of the Republic of Croatia, analyze its impact on economic growth, and provide guidelines for adopting future policies and strategies.
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