Improving our understanding of the controls on Antarctic precipitation is critical for gaining insights into past and future polar and global environmental changes. Here we develop innovative water ...tracing diagnostics in the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6. These tracers provide new detailed information on moisture source locations and properties of Antarctic precipitation. In the preindustrial simulation, annual mean Antarctic precipitation originating from the open ocean has a source latitude range of 49–35∘ S, a source sea surface temperature range of 9.8–16.3 ∘C, a source 2 m relative humidity range of 75.6 %–83.3 %, and a source 10 m wind velocity (vel10) range of 10.1 to 11.3 m s−1. These results are consistent with estimates from existing literature. Central Antarctic precipitation is sourced from more equatorward (distant) sources via elevated transport pathways compared to coastal Antarctic precipitation. This has been attributed to a moist isentropic framework; i.e. poleward vapour transport tends to follow constant equivalent potential temperature. However, we find notable deviations from this tendency especially in the lower troposphere, likely due to radiative cooling. Heavy precipitation is sourced by longer-range moisture transport: it comes from 2.9∘ (300 km, averaged over Antarctica) more equatorward (distant) sources compared to the rest of precipitation. Precipitation during negative phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) also comes from more equatorward moisture sources (by 2.4∘, averaged over Antarctica) compared to precipitation during positive SAM phases, likely due to amplified planetary waves during negative SAM phases. Moreover, source vel10 of annual mean precipitation is on average 2.1 m s−1 higher than annual mean vel10 at moisture source locations from which the precipitation originates. This shows that the evaporation of moisture driving Antarctic precipitation occurs under windier conditions than average. We quantified this dynamic control of Southern Ocean surface wind on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation. Overall, the innovative water tracing diagnostics enhance our understanding of the controlling factors of Antarctic precipitation.
Based on a composite of several measurement series performed on ice samples stored at −25◦C or −50◦C, we present and discuss the first δO2/N2 record of trapped air from the EPICA Dome C (EDC) ice ...core covering the period between 300 and 800 ka (thousands of years before present). The samples stored at −25◦C show clear gas loss affecting the precision and mean level of the δO2/N2 record. Two different gas loss corrections are proposed to account for this effect, without altering the spectral properties of the original datasets. Although processes at play remain to be fully understood, previous studies have proposed a link between surface insolation, ice grain properties at close-off, and δO2/N2 in air bubbles, from which orbitally tuned chronologies of the Vostok and Dome Fuji ice core records have been derived over the last four climatic cycles. Here, we show that limitations caused by data quality and resolution, data filtering, and uncertainties in the orbital tuning target limit the precision of this tuning method for EDC. Moreover, our extended record includes two periods of low eccentricity. During these intervals (around 400 ka and 750 ka), the matching between δO2/N2 and the different insolation curves is ambiguous because some local insolation maxima cannot be identified in the δO2/N2 record (and vice versa). Recognizing these limitations, we restrict the use of our δO2/N2 record to show that the EDC3 age scale is generally correct within its published uncertainty (6 kyr) over the 300-800 ka period.
Measurements of Last Interglacial stable water isotopes in ice cores show that central Greenland δ18O increased by at least 3‰ compared to present day. Attempting to quantify the Greenland ...interglacial temperature change from these ice core measurements rests on our ability to interpret the stable water isotope content of Greenland snow. Current orbitally driven interglacial simulations do not show δ18O or temperature rises of the correct magnitude, leading to difficulty in using only these experiments to inform our understanding of higher interglacial δ18O. Here, analysis of greenhouse gas warmed simulations from two isotope-enabled general circulation models, in conjunction with a set of Last Interglacial sea surface observations, indicates a possible explanation for the interglacial δ18O rise. A reduction in the winter time sea ice concentration around the northern half of Greenland, together with an increase in sea surface temperatures over the same region, is found to be sufficient to drive a >3‰ interglacial enrichment in central Greenland snow. Warm climate δ18O and δD in precipitation falling on Greenland are shown to be strongly influenced by local sea surface condition changes: local sea surface warming and a shrunken sea ice extent increase the proportion of water vapour from local (isotopically enriched) sources, compared to that from distal (isotopically depleted) sources. Precipitation intermittency changes, under warmer conditions, leads to geographical variability in the δ18O against temperature gradients across Greenland. Little sea surface warming around the northern areas of Greenland leads to low δ18O against temperature gradients (0.1–0.3‰ per °C), whilst large sea surface warmings in these regions leads to higher gradients (0.3–0.7‰ per °C). These gradients imply a wide possible range of present day to interglacial temperature increases (4 to >10 °C). Thus, we find that uncertainty about local interglacial sea surface conditions, rather than precipitation intermittency changes, may lead to the largest uncertainties in interpreting temperature from Greenland ice cores. We find that interglacial sea surface change observational records are currently insufficient to enable discrimination between these different δ18O against temperature gradients. In conclusion, further information on interglacial sea surface temperatures and sea ice changes around northern Greenland should indicate whether +5 °C during the Last Interglacial is sufficient to drive the observed ice core δ18O increase, or whether a larger temperature increases or ice sheet changes are also required to explain the ice core observations.
► Interglacial isotope increases in Greenland snow have not been previously explained. ► We present an analysis of two sets of warm climate isotope-enabled GCM simulations. ► We find local sea surface warming isotopically enriches Greenland snow. ► Arctic interglacial sea surface warming could explain these ice core observations. ► We show current interglacial observations do not yet indicate if this occurred.
The EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) Dome C (EDC) ice core drilling in East Antarctica reaches a depth of 3260 m. The reference EDC chronology, the AICC2012 (Antarctic Ice Core ...Chronology 2012), provides an age vs. depth relationship covering the last 800 kyr (thousands of years), with an absolute uncertainty rising up to 8000 years at the bottom of the ice core. The origins of this relatively large uncertainty are twofold: (1) the δ18Oatm, δO2/N2 and total air content (TAC) records are poorly resolved and show large gaps over the last 800 kyr, and (2) large uncertainties are associated with their orbital targets. Here, we present new highly resolved δ18Oatm, δO2/N2 and δ15N measurements for the EDC ice core covering the last five glacial–interglacial transitions; a new low-resolution TAC record over the period 440–800 ka BP (ka: 1000 years before 1950); and novel absolute 81Kr ages. We have compiled chronological and glaciological information including novel orbital age markers from new data on the EDC ice core as well as accurate firn modeling estimates in a Bayesian dating tool to construct the new AICC2023 chronology. For the first time, three orbital tools are used simultaneously. Hence, it is possible to observe that they are consistent with each other and with the other age markers over most of the last 800 kyr (70 %). This, in turn, gives us confidence in the new AICC2023 chronology. The average uncertainty in the ice chronology is reduced from 1700 to 900 years in AICC2023 over the last 800 kyr (1σ). The new timescale diverges from AICC2012 and suggests age shifts reaching 3800 years towards older ages over marine isotope stages (MISs) 5, 11 and 19. But the coherency between the new AICC2023 timescale and independent chronologies of other archives (Italian Lacustrine succession from Sulmona Basin, Dome Fuji ice core and northern Alpine speleothems) is improved by 1000 to 2000 years over these time intervals.
Recent data compilations of the early Last Interglacial period have indicated a bipolar temperature response at 130 ka, with colder-than-present temperatures in the North Atlantic and ...warmer-than-present temperatures in the Southern Ocean and over Antarctica. However, climate model simulations of this period have been unable to reproduce this response, when only orbital and greenhouse gas forcings are considered in a climate model framework. Using a full-complexity general circulation model we perform climate model simulations representative of 130 ka conditions which include a magnitude of freshwater forcing derived from data at this time. We show that this meltwater from the remnant Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the glacial–interglacial transition produces a modelled climate response similar to the observed colder-than-present temperatures in the North Atlantic at 130 ka and also results in warmer-than-present temperatures in the Southern Ocean via the bipolar seesaw mechanism. Further simulations in which the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is also removed lead to warming in East Antarctica and the Southern Ocean but do not appreciably improve the model–data comparison. This integrated model–data approach provides evidence that Northern Hemisphere freshwater forcing is an important player in the evolution of early Last Interglacial climate.
The penultimate deglaciation (PDG, ∼138–128 thousand years before present, hereafter ka) is the transition from the penultimate glacial maximum (PGM) to the Last Interglacial (LIG, ∼129–116 ka). The ...LIG stands out as one of the warmest interglacials of the last 800 000 years (hereafter kyr), with high-latitude temperature warmer than today and global sea level likely higher by at least 6 m. Considering the transient nature of the Earth system, the LIG climate and ice-sheet evolution were certainly influenced by the changes occurring during the penultimate deglaciation. It is thus important to investigate, with coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), the climate and environmental response to the large changes in boundary conditions (i.e. orbital configuration, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, ice-sheet geometry and associated meltwater fluxes) occurring during the penultimate deglaciation. A deglaciation working group has recently been set up as part of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) phase 4, with a protocol to perform transient simulations of the last deglaciation (19–11 ka; although the protocol covers 26–0 ka). Similar to the last deglaciation, the disintegration of continental ice sheets during the penultimate deglaciation led to significant changes in the oceanic circulation during Heinrich Stadial 11 (∼136–129 ka). However, the two deglaciations bear significant differences in magnitude and temporal evolution of climate and environmental changes. Here, as part of the Past Global Changes (PAGES)-PMIP working group on Quaternary interglacials (QUIGS), we propose a protocol to perform transient simulations of the penultimate deglaciation under the auspices of PMIP4. This design includes time-varying changes in orbital forcing, greenhouse gas concentrations, continental ice sheets as well as freshwater input from the disintegration of continental ice sheets. This experiment is designed for AOGCMs to assess the coupled response of the climate system to all forcings. Additional sensitivity experiments are proposed to evaluate the response to each forcing. Finally, a selection of paleo-records representing different parts of the climate system is presented, providing an appropriate benchmark for upcoming model–data comparisons across the penultimate deglaciation.
The last interglacial period (LIG, ∼ 129–116 thousand years ago) provides the most recent case study of multimillennial polar warming above the preindustrial level and a response of the Greenland and ...Antarctic ice sheets to this warming, as well as a test bed for climate and ice sheet models. Past changes in Greenland ice sheet thickness and surface temperature during this period were recently derived from the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) ice core records, northwest Greenland. The NEEM paradox has emerged from an estimated large local warming above the preindustrial level (7.5 ± 1.8 °C at the deposition site 126 kyr ago without correction for any overall ice sheet altitude changes between the LIG and the preindustrial period) based on water isotopes, together with limited local ice thinning, suggesting more resilience of the real Greenland ice sheet than shown in some ice sheet models. Here, we provide an independent assessment of the average LIG Greenland surface warming using ice core air isotopic composition (δ15N) and relationships between accumulation rate and temperature. The LIG surface temperature at the upstream NEEM deposition site without ice sheet altitude correction is estimated to be warmer by +8.5 ± 2.5 °C compared to the preindustrial period. This temperature estimate is consistent with the 7.5 ± 1.8 °C warming initially determined from NEEM water isotopes but at the upper end of the preindustrial period to LIG temperature difference of +5.2 ± 2.3 °C obtained at the NGRIP (North Greenland Ice Core Project) site by the same method. Climate simulations performed with present-day ice sheet topography lead in general to a warming smaller than reconstructed, but sensitivity tests show that larger amplitudes (up to 5 °C) are produced in response to prescribed changes in sea ice extent and ice sheet topography.
Orbital tuning is central for ice core chronologies beyond annual layer counting, available back to 60 ka (i.e. thousands of years before 1950) for Greenland ice cores. While several complementary ...orbital tuning tools have recently been developed using δ18Oatm, δO2⁄N2 and air content with different orbital targets, quantifying their uncertainties remains a challenge. Indeed, the exact processes linking variations of these parameters, measured in the air trapped in ice, to their orbital targets are not yet fully understood. Here, we provide new series of δO2∕N2 and δ18Oatm data encompassing Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 5 (between 100 and 160 ka) and the oldest part (340–800 ka) of the East Antarctic EPICA Dome C (EDC) ice core. For the first time, the measurements over MIS 5 allow an inter-comparison of δO2∕N2 and δ18Oatm records from three East Antarctic ice core sites (EDC, Vostok and Dome F). This comparison highlights some site-specific δO2∕N2 variations. Such an observation, the evidence of a 100 ka periodicity in the δO2∕N2 signal and the difficulty to identify extrema and mid-slopes in δO2∕N2 increase the uncertainty associated with the use of δO2∕N2 as an orbital tuning tool, now calculated to be 3–4 ka. When combining records of δ18Oatm and δO2∕N2 from Vostok and EDC, we find a loss of orbital signature for these two parameters during periods of minimum eccentricity (∼ 400 ka, ∼ 720–800 ka). Our data set reveals a time-varying offset between δO2∕N2 and δ18Oatm records over the last 800 ka that we interpret as variations in the lagged response of δ18Oatm to precession. The largest offsets are identified during Terminations II, MIS 8 and MIS 16, corresponding to periods of destabilization of the Northern polar ice sheets. We therefore suggest that the occurrence of Heinrich–like events influences the response of δ18Oatm to precession.
Based on a composite of several measurement series performed on ice samples stored at −25 °C or −50 °C, we present and discuss the first δO2/N2 record of trapped air from the EPICA Dome C (EDC) ice ...core covering the period between 300 and 800 ka (thousands of years before present). The samples stored at −25 °C show clear gas loss affecting the precision and mean level of the δO2/N2 record. Two different gas loss corrections are proposed to account for this effect, without altering the spectral properties of the original datasets. Although processes at play remain to be fully understood, previous studies have proposed a link between surface insolation, ice grain properties at close-off, and δO2/N2 in air bubbles, from which orbitally tuned chronologies of the Vostok and Dome Fuji ice core records have been derived over the last four climatic cycles. Here, we show that limitations caused by data quality and resolution, data filtering, and uncertainties in the orbital tuning target limit the precision of this tuning method for EDC. Moreover, our extended record includes two periods of low eccentricity. During these intervals (around 400 ka and 750 ka), the matching between δO2/N2 and the different insolation curves is ambiguous because some local insolation maxima cannot be identified in the δO2/N2 record (and vice versa). Recognizing these limitations, we restrict the use of our δO2/N2 record to show that the EDC3 age scale is generally correct within its published uncertainty (6 kyr) over the 300–800 ka period.
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