The deep polar ice cores provide reference records commonly employed in global correlation of past climate events. However, temporal divergences reaching up to several thousand years (ka) exist ...between ice cores over the last climatic cycle. In this context, we are hereby introducing the Antarctic Ice Core Chronology 2012 (AICC2012), a new and coherent timescale developed for four Antarctic ice cores, namely Vostok, EPICA Dome C (EDC), EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML) and Talos Dome (TALDICE), alongside the Greenlandic NGRIP record. The AICC2012 timescale has been constructed using the Bayesian tool Datice (Lemieux-Dudon et al., 2010) that combines glaciological inputs and data constraints, including a wide range of relative and absolute gas and ice stratigraphic markers. We focus here on the last 120 ka, whereas the companion paper by Bazin et al. (2013) focuses on the interval 120–800 ka. Compared to previous timescales, AICC2012 presents an improved timing for the last glacial inception, respecting the glaciological constraints of all analyzed records. Moreover, with the addition of numerous new stratigraphic markers and improved calculation of the lock-in depth (LID) based on δ15N data employed as the Datice background scenario, the AICC2012 presents a slightly improved timing for the bipolar sequence of events over Marine Isotope Stage 3 associated with the seesaw mechanism, with maximum differences of about 600 yr with respect to the previous Datice-derived chronology of Lemieux-Dudon et al. (2010), hereafter denoted LD2010. Our improved scenario confirms the regional differences for the millennial scale variability over the last glacial period: while the EDC isotopic record (events of triangular shape) displays peaks roughly at the same time as the NGRIP abrupt isotopic increases, the EDML isotopic record (events characterized by broader peaks or even extended periods of high isotope values) reached the isotopic maximum several centuries before. It is expected that the future contribution of both other long ice core records and other types of chronological constraints to the Datice tool will lead to further refinements in the ice core chronologies beyond the AICC2012 chronology. For the time being however, we recommend that AICC2012 be used as the preferred chronology for the Vostok, EDC, EDML and TALDICE ice core records, both over the last glacial cycle (this study), and beyond (following Bazin et al., 2013). The ages for NGRIP in AICC2012 are virtually identical to those of GICC05 for the last 60.2 ka, whereas the ages beyond are independent of those in GICC05modelext (as in the construction of AICC2012, the GICC05modelext was included only via the background scenarios and not as age markers). As such, where issues of phasing between Antarctic records included in AICC2012 and NGRIP are involved, the NGRIP ages in AICC2012 should therefore be taken to avoid introducing false offsets. However for issues involving only Greenland ice cores, there is not yet a strong basis to recommend superseding GICC05modelext as the recommended age scale for Greenland ice cores.
The Last Interglacial (LIG, ∼129-116 thousand years ago, ka) represents an excellent case study to investigate the response of sensitive components of the Earth System and mechanisms of high-latitude ...amplification to a climate warmer than present-day. The Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 4, hereafter referred as PMIP4) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6, hereafter referred as CMIP6) are coordinating the design of (1) a LIG Tier 1 equilibrium simulation to simulate the climate response at 127 ka, a time interval associated with a strong orbital forcing and greenhouse gas concentrations close to preindustrial levels and (2) associated Tier 2 sensitivity experiments to examine the role of the ocean, vegetation and dust feedbacks in modulating the response to this orbital forcing.
Evaluating the capability of the CMIP6/PMIP4 models to reproduce the 127 ka polar and sub-polar climate will require appropriate data-based benchmarks which are currently missing. Based on a recent data synthesis that offers the first spatio-temporal representation of high-latitude (i.e. poleward of 40°N and 40°S) surface temperature evolution during the LIG, we produce a new 126–128 ka time slab, hereafter named 127 ka time slice. This 127 ka time slice represents surface temperature anomalies relative to preindustrial and is associated with quantitative estimates of the uncertainties related to relative dating and surface temperature reconstruction methods. It illustrates warmer-than-preindustrial conditions in the high-latitude regions of both hemispheres. In particular, summer sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic region were on average 1.1 °C (with a standard error of the mean of 0.7 °C) warmer relative to preindustrial and 1.8 °C (with a standard error of the mean of 0.8 °C) in the Southern Ocean. In Antarctica, average 127 ka annual surface air temperature was 2.2 °C (with a standard error of the mean of 1.4 °C) warmer compared to preindustrial.
We provide a critical evaluation of the latest LIG surface climate compilations that are available for evaluating LIG climate model experiments. We discuss in particular our new 127 ka time-slice in the context of existing LIG surface temperature time-slices. We also compare the 127 ka time slice with the ones published for the 125 and 130 ka time intervals and we discuss the potential and limits of a data-based time slice at 127 ka in the context of the upcoming coordinated modeling exercise. Finally we provide guidance on the use of the available LIG climate compilations for future model-data comparison exercises in the framework of the upcoming CMIP6/PMIP4 127 ka experiments. We do not recommend the use of LIG peak warmth-centered syntheses. Instead we promote the use of the most recent syntheses that are based on coherent chronologies between paleoclimatic records and provide spatio-temporal reconstruction of the LIG climate. In particular, we recommend using our new 127 ka data-based time slice in model-data comparison studies with a focus on the high-latitude climate.
•New 127 ka time slice based on a Last Interglacial high-latitude climate synthesis.•Warmer-than-preindustrial 127 ka surface conditions in high-latitude regions.•Benchmark to evaluate CMIP6/PMIP4 LIG simulations with 127 ka climate forcing.•Critical evaluation of existing LIG climate compilations as a guidance for modelers.
Data availability and temporal resolution make it challenging to unravel the anatomy (duration and temporal phasing) of the Last Glacial abrupt climate changes. Here, we address these limitations by ...investigating the anatomy of abrupt changes using sub-decadal-scale records from Greenland ice cores. We highlight the absence of a systematic pattern in the anatomy of abrupt changes as recorded in different ice parameters. This diversity in the sequence of changes seen in ice-core data is also observed in climate parameters derived from numerical simulations which exhibit self-sustained abrupt variability arising from internal atmosphere-ice-ocean interactions. Our analysis of two ice cores shows that the diversity of abrupt warming transitions represents variability inherent to the climate system and not archive-specific noise. Our results hint that during these abrupt events, it may not be possible to infer statistically-robust leads and lags between the different components of the climate system because of their tight coupling.
The Last Interglacial (LIG) represents an invaluable case study to investigate the response of components of the Earth system to global warming. However, the scarcity of absolute age constraints in ...most archives leads to extensive use of various stratigraphic alignments to different reference chronologies. This feature sets limitations to the accuracy of the stratigraphic assignment of the climatic sequence of events across the globe during the LIG. Here, we review the strengths and limitations of the methods that are commonly used to date or develop chronologies in various climatic archives for the time span (∼140–100 ka) encompassing the penultimate deglaciation, the LIG and the glacial inception. Climatic hypotheses underlying record alignment strategies and the interpretation of tracers are explicitly described. Quantitative estimates of the associated absolute and relative age uncertainties are provided.
Recommendations are subsequently formulated on how best to define absolute and relative chronologies. Future climato-stratigraphic alignments should provide (1) a clear statement of climate hypotheses involved, (2) a detailed understanding of environmental parameters controlling selected tracers and (3) a careful evaluation of the synchronicity of aligned paleoclimatic records. We underscore the need to (1) systematically report quantitative estimates of relative and absolute age uncertainties, (2) assess the coherence of chronologies when comparing different records, and (3) integrate these uncertainties in paleoclimatic interpretations and comparisons with climate simulations.
Finally, we provide a sequence of major climatic events with associated age uncertainties for the period 140–105 ka, which should serve as a new benchmark to disentangle mechanisms of the Earth system's response to orbital forcing and evaluate transient climate simulations.
•Review of methods to date climatic archives across the Last Interglacial (LIG).•Careful evaluation of climate hypotheses underlying record alignment methods.•Systematic and quantitative estimates of age uncertainties.•First sequence of events with age uncertainties between 140 and 105 ka.•The lack of LIG age markers limits studies of LIG millennial-scale variability.
Although the Last Interglacial (LIG) is often considered as a possible analogue for future climate in high latitudes, its precise climate evolution and associated causes remain uncertain. Here we ...compile high-resolution marine sediment records from the North Atlantic, Labrador Sea, Norwegian Sea and the Southern Ocean. We document a delay in the establishment of peak interglacial conditions in the North Atlantic, Labrador and Norwegian Seas as compared to the Southern Ocean. In particular, we observe a persistent iceberg melting at high northern latitudes at the beginning of the LIG. It is associated with (1) colder and fresher surface-water conditions in the North Atlantic, Labrador and Norwegian Seas, and (2) a weaker ventilation of North Atlantic deep waters during the early LIG (129-125 ka) compared to the late LIG. Results from an ocean-atmosphere coupled model with insolation as a sole forcing for three key periods of the LIG show warmer North Atlantic surface waters and stronger Atlantic overturning during the early LIG (126 ka) than the late LIG (122 ka). Hence, insolation variations alone do not explain the delay in peak interglacial conditions observed at high northern latitudes. Additionally, we consider an idealized meltwater scenario at 126 ka where the freshwater input is interactively computed in response to the high boreal summer insolation. The model simulates colder, fresher North Atlantic surface waters and weaker Atlantic overturning during the early LIG (126 ka) compared to the late LIG (122 ka). This result suggests that both insolation and ice sheet melting have to be considered to reproduce the climatic pattern that we identify during the early LIG. Our model-data comparison also reveals a number of limitations and reinforces the need for further detailed investigations using coupled climate-ice sheet models and transient simulations.
Maternal prenatal stress during pregnancy is associated with fetal growth restriction and adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes, which may be mediated by impaired placental function. Imprinted genes ...control fetal growth, placental development, adult behaviour (including maternal behaviour) and placental lactogen production. This study examined whether maternal prenatal depression was associated with aberrant placental expression of the imprinted genes paternally expressed gene 3 (PEG3), paternally expressed gene 10 (PEG10), pleckstrin homology-like domain family a member 2 (PHLDA2) and cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor 1C (CDKN1C), and resulting impaired placental human placental lactogen (hPL) expression.
A diagnosis of depression during pregnancy was recorded from Manchester cohort participants' medical notes (n = 75). Queen Charlotte's (n = 40) and My Baby and Me study (MBAM) (n = 81) cohort participants completed the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale self-rating psychometric questionnaire. Villous trophoblast tissue samples were analysed for gene expression.
In a pilot study, diagnosed depression during pregnancy was associated with a significant reduction in placental PEG3 expression (41%, p = 0.02). In two further independent cohorts, the Queen Charlotte's and MBAM cohorts, placental PEG3 expression was also inversely associated with maternal depression scores, an association that was significant in male but not female placentas. Finally, hPL expression was significantly decreased in women with clinically diagnosed depression (44%, p < 0.05) and in those with high depression scores (31% and 21%, respectively).
This study provides the first evidence that maternal prenatal depression is associated with changes in the placental expression of PEG3, co-incident with decreased expression of hPL. This aberrant placental gene expression could provide a possible mechanistic explanation for the co-occurrence of maternal depression, fetal growth restriction, impaired maternal behaviour and poorer offspring outcomes.
•Prenatal stress (maternal symptoms of depression, anxiety and life events) was associated with altered placental expression of HPA-axis genes.•There was a significant interaction with ...ethnicity.•There was increased placental NR3C1 and decreased HSD2B11 expression in Caucasians but no change in non-Caucasians.•Further research is needed to examine the potential effects of ethnicity on the association between prenatal stress & placental gene expression.
Prenatal stress is associated with altered fetal and infant development. Previous studies have suggested that these effects may be mediated in part via altered functioning of placental enzymes and receptors involved in the HPA-axis, including the glucocorticoid receptor (NR3C1) and HSD11B2, the enzyme which metabolises cortisol. However, previous studies have not examined the potential ethnicity effects on these associations. This study aimed to characterise the association between maternal prenatal stress and placental genes expression and subsequently, any potential effect of maternal ethnicity.
Pregnant women(n=83) were recruited prior to elective caesarean section and assessed for trait anxiety, depression and life events. Placentas were collected and placental gene expression of NR3C1 and HSD11B2 were analysed. We examined associations between maternal prenatal stress and placental gene expression, and the tested for a possible moderating effect of maternal ethnicity(59.0% Caucasian;41.0% non-Caucasian:12.0% South Asian;6.0% African/African-American;14.4% Other;8.4% Mixed).
Analyses demonstrated a trend in the association between both maternal trait anxiety and depression symptoms with placental gene expression of NR3C1(adj.β=0.220,p=0.067;adj.β=0.212,p=0.064 respectively). We found a significant interaction with maternal ethnicity(β=0.249;p=0.033). In Caucasian women only prenatal trait anxiety and depressive symptoms were associated with an increase in placental NR3C1 expression(adj.β=0.389,p=0.010;adj.β=0.294;p=0.047 respectively). Prenatal life events were associated with a down regulation of HSD11B2(adj.β=0.381;p=0.008), but only in Caucasians.
These results support previous findings of an association between maternal prenatal stress and the expression of placental genes associated with the HPA-axis, but only in Caucasians. These ethnic specific findings are novel and require replication in different populations.
Insoluble trace gases are trapped in polar ice at the firn-ice transition, at approximately 50 to 100 m below the surface, depending primarily on the site temperature and snow accumulation. Models of ...trace gas transport in polar firn are used to relate firn air and ice core records of trace gases to their atmospheric history. We propose a new model based on the following contributions. First, the firn air transport model is revised in a poromechanics framework with emphasis on the non-homogeneous properties and the treatment of gravitational settling. We then derive a nonlinear least square multi-gas optimisation scheme to calculate the effective firn diffusivity (automatic diffusivity tuning). The improvements gained by the multi-gas approach are investigated (up to ten gases for a single site are included in the optimisation process). We apply the model to four Arctic (Devon Island, NEEM, North GRIP, Summit) and seven Antarctic (DE08, Berkner Island, Siple Dome, Dronning Maud Land, South Pole, Dome C, Vostok) sites and calculate their respective depth-dependent diffusivity profiles. Among these different sites, a relationship is inferred between the snow accumulation rate and an increasing thickness of the lock-in zone defined from the isotopic composition of molecular nitrogen in firn air (denoted δ15N). It is associated with a reduced diffusivity value and an increased ratio of advective to diffusive flux in deep firn, which is particularly important at high accumulation rate sites. This has implications for the understanding of δ15N of N2 records in ice cores, in relation with past variations of the snow accumulation rate. As the snow accumulation rate is clearly a primary control on the thickness of the lock-in zone, our new approach that allows for the estimation of the lock-in zone width as a function of accumulation may lead to a better constraint on the age difference between the ice and entrapped gases.
Unless humanity achieves United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 and restores the relatively stable climate of pre-industrial CO2 levels (as early as 2140), species extinctions, ...starvation, drought/floods, and violence will exacerbate mass migrations. This paper presents conceptual designs and techno-economic analyses to calculate sustainable limits for growing high-protein seafood and macroalgae-for-biofuel. We review the availability of wet solid waste and outline the mass balance of carbon and plant nutrients passing through a hydrothermal liquefaction process. The paper reviews the availability of dry solid waste and dry biomass for bioenergy with CO2 capture and storage (BECCS) while generating Allam Cycle electricity. Sufficient wet-waste biomass supports quickly building hydrothermal liquefaction facilities. Macroalgae-for-biofuel technology can be developed and straightforwardly implemented on SDG-achieving high protein seafood infrastructure. The analyses indicate a potential for (1) 0.5 billion tonnes/yr of seafood; (2) 20 million barrels/day of biofuel from solid waste; (3) more biocrude oil from macroalgae than current fossil oil; and (4) sequestration of 28 to 38 billion tonnes/yr of bio-CO2. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) costs are between 25–33% of those for BECCS with pre-2019 technology or the projected cost of air-capture CDR.
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