A new surface boundary forcing dataset for uncoupled simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model is described. It is a merged product based on the monthly mean Hadley Centre sea ice and SST ...dataset version 1 (HadISST1) and version 2 of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weekly optimum interpolation (OI) SST analysis. These two source datasets were also used to supply ocean surface information to the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40). The merged product provides monthly mean sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration data from 1870 to the present: it is updated monthly, and it is freely available for community use. The merging procedure was designed to take full advantage of the higher-resolution SST information inherent in the NOAA OI.v2 analysis.
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BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
2.
The Lack of QBO‐MJO Connection in CMIP6 Models Kim, Hyemi; Caron, Julie M.; Richter, Jadwiga H. ...
Geophysical research letters,
16 June 2020, Letnik:
47, Številka:
11
Journal Article
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Observational analysis has indicated a strong connection between the stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) and tropospheric Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO), with MJO activity being stronger ...during the easterly phase than the westerly phase of the QBO. We assess the representation of this QBO‐MJO connection in 30 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6. While some models reasonably simulate the QBO during boreal winter, none of them capture a difference in MJO activity between easterly and westerly QBO that is larger than that which would be expected from the random sampling of internal variability. The weak signal of the simulated QBO‐MJO connection may be due to the weaker amplitude of the QBO than observed, especially between 100 to 50 hPa. This weaker amplitude in the models is seen both in the QBO‐related zonal wind and temperature, the latter of which is thought to be critical for destabilizing tropical convection.
Plain Language Summary
The QBO, which is a dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical lower stratosphere, has been found to strongly modulate the MJO, a dominant mode of subseasonal variability in the tropical troposphere. We show that while half of the CMIP6 climate models simulate the QBO, none of them capture the observed QBO‐MJO relationship. The weak signal of the simulated QBO‐MJO relationship may be due to the models' weaker amplitude of the QBO‐related wind and temperature signal in the lower stratosphere, which is thought to be critical for modulating the MJO.
Key Points
None of the CMIP6 models simulate the observed QBO‐MJO connection
Simulated MJO activity differences between QBO phases are consistent with sampling noise
Models have a weaker QBO signal near the tropopause than observed
Literature review and synthesis of growth rates of aquatic protists focused on the role of temperature in the formation of massive annual algal blooms in high-latitude ecosystems. Maximal growth ...rates of herbivorous protists equaled or exceeded maximal growth rates of phototrophic protists at temperatures above 15°C. Maximal growth rates of herbivorous protists declined more rapidly with decreasing temperature than did those of phototrophic protists, and at the very low temperatures common to high-latitude ecosystems, the maximal growth rates of herbivorous protists were less than half the maximal growth rates of phototrophic protists. Growth rates of herbivorous protists were consistently lower than those of bacterivorous protists and were unrelated to differences in cell volume between the two groups. Linear equations describing the relationship of the natural log of maximal growth rates of bacterivorous and herbivorous protists to temperature were generated and compared to published information for maximal growth rates of phototrophic protists and copepods. The three heterotrophic groups had similar slopes (0.12 for bacterivorous protists, 0.10 for herbivorous protists, and 0.13 for copepods) that were approximately double that of phototrophic protists (0.06). The massive annual algal blooms observed in high latitudes are due in part to a fundamental difference in the relationship between growth and temperature for phototrophic protists and their grazers.
Extended, high-resolution (0.23° latitude × 0.31° longitude) simulations with Community Atmosphere Model versions 4 and 5 (CAM4 and CAM5) are examined and compared with results from climate ...simulations conducted at a more typical resolution of 0.9° latitude × 1.25° longitude. Overall, the simulated climate of the high-resolution experiments is not dramatically better than that of their low-resolution counterparts. Improvements appear primarily where topographic effects may be playing a role, including a substantially improved summertime Indian monsoon simulation in CAM4 at high resolution. Significant sensitivity to resolution is found in simulated precipitation over the southeast United States during winter. Some aspects of the simulated seasonal mean precipitation deteriorate notably at high resolution. Prominent among these is an exacerbated Pacific “double ITCZ” bias in both models. Nevertheless, while large-scale seasonal means are not dramatically better at high resolution, realistic tropical cyclone (TC) distributions are obtained. Some skill in reproducing interannual variability in TC statistics also appears.
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BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Summary
ZUMA‐1 (NCT02348216) examined the safety and efficacy of axicabtagene ciloleucel (axi‐cel), an autologous CD19‐directed chimaeric antigen receptor (CAR)‐T cell therapy, in refractory large ...B‐cell lymphoma. To reduce treatment‐related toxicity, several exploratory safety management cohorts were added to ZUMA‐1. Specifically, cohort 6 investigated management of cytokine release syndrome (CRS) and neurologic events (NEs) with prophylactic corticosteroids and earlier corticosteroid and tocilizumab intervention. CRS and NE incidence and severity were primary end‐points. Following leukapheresis, patients could receive optional bridging therapy per investigator discretion. All patients received conditioning chemotherapy (days −5 through −3), 2 × 106 CAR‐T cells/kg (day 0) and once‐daily oral dexamethasone 10 mg, day 0 (before axi‐cel) through day 2. Forty patients received axi‐cel. CRS occurred in 80% of patients (all grade ≤2). Any grade and grade 3 or higher NEs occurred in 58% and 13% of patients respectively. Sixty‐eight per cent of patients did not experience CRS or NEs within 72 h of axi‐cel. With a median follow‐up of 8·9 months, objective and complete response rates were 95% and 80% respectively. Overall, prophylactic corticosteroids and earlier corticosteroid and/or tocilizumab intervention resulted in no grade 3 or higher CRS, a low rate of grade 3 or higher NEs and high response rates in this study population.
Microbes have central roles in ocean food webs and global biogeochemical processes, yet specific ecological relationships among these taxa are largely unknown. This is in part due to the dilute, ...microscopic nature of the planktonic microbial community, which prevents direct observation of their interactions. Here, we use a holistic (that is, microbial system-wide) approach to investigate time-dependent variations among taxa from all three domains of life in a marine microbial community. We investigated the community composition of bacteria, archaea and protists through cultivation-independent methods, along with total bacterial and viral abundance, and physico-chemical observations. Samples and observations were collected monthly over 3 years at a well-described ocean time-series site of southern California. To find associations among these organisms, we calculated time-dependent rank correlations (that is, local similarity correlations) among relative abundances of bacteria, archaea, protists, total abundance of bacteria and viruses and physico-chemical parameters. We used a network generated from these statistical correlations to visualize and identify time-dependent associations among ecologically important taxa, for example, the SAR11 cluster, stramenopiles, alveolates, cyanobacteria and ammonia-oxidizing archaea. Negative correlations, perhaps suggesting competition or predation, were also common. The analysis revealed a progression of microbial communities through time, and also a group of unknown eukaryotes that were highly correlated with dinoflagellates, indicating possible symbioses or parasitism. Possible 'keystone' species were evident. The network has statistical features similar to previously described ecological networks, and in network parlance has non-random, small world properties (that is, highly interconnected nodes). This approach provides new insights into the natural history of microbes.
The majority of patients with neuroblastoma have tumors that initially respond to chemotherapy, but a large proportion will experience therapy-resistant relapses. The molecular basis of this ...aggressive phenotype is unknown. Whole-genome sequencing of 23 paired diagnostic and relapse neuroblastomas showed clonal evolution from the diagnostic tumor, with a median of 29 somatic mutations unique to the relapse sample. Eighteen of the 23 relapse tumors (78%) showed mutations predicted to activate the RAS-MAPK pathway. Seven of these events were detected only in the relapse tumor, whereas the others showed clonal enrichment. In neuroblastoma cell lines, we also detected a high frequency of activating mutations in the RAS-MAPK pathway (11/18; 61%), and these lesions predicted sensitivity to MEK inhibition in vitro and in vivo. Our findings provide a rationale for genetic characterization of relapse neuroblastomas and show that RAS-MAPK pathway mutations may function as a biomarker for new therapeutic approaches to refractory disease.
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DOBA, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SBMB, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The simulation characteristics of the Asian–Australian monsoon are documented for the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). This is the first part of a two part series examining monsoon ...regimes in the global tropics in the CCSM4. Comparisons aremade to an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulation of the atmospheric component in CCSM4 Community Atmosphere Model, version 4, (CAM4) to deduce differences in the monsoon simulations run with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and with ocean–atmosphere coupling. These simulations are also compared to a previous version of the model (CCSM3) to evaluate progress. In general, monsoon rainfall is too heavy in the uncoupled AMIP run with CAM4, and monsoon rainfall amounts are generally better simulated with ocean coupling in CCSM4. Most aspects of the Asian–Australian monsoon simulations are improved in CCSM4 compared to CCSM3. There is a reduction of the systematic error of rainfall over the tropical Indian Ocean for the South Asian monsoon, and well-simulated connections between SSTs in the Bay of Bengal and regional South Asian monsoon precipitation. The pattern of rainfall in the Australian monsoon is closer to observations in part because of contributions from the improvements of the Indonesian Throughflow and diapycnal diffusion in CCSM4. Intraseasonal variability of the Asian–Australian monsoon is much improved in CCSM4 compared to CCSM3 both in terms of eastward and northward propagation characteristics, though it is still somewhat weaker than observed. An improved simulation of El Niño in CCSM4 contributes to more realistic connections between the Asian–Australian monsoon and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), though there is considerable decadal and century time scale variability of the strength of the monsoon–ENSO connection.
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BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
New estimates of the poleward energy transport based on atmospheric reanalyses from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) and the ...European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts are presented. The analysis focuses on the period from February 1985 to April 1989 when there are reliable top-of-the-atmosphere radiation data from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment. Annual mean poleward transports of atmospheric energy peak at 5.0 ± 0.14 PW at 43°N and with similar values near 40°S, which is much larger than previous estimates. The standard deviation of annual and zonal mean variability from 1979 to 1998 is mostly less than 0.15 PW (1%–3%). Results are evaluated by computing the implied ocean heat transports, utilizing physical constraints, and comparing them with direct oceanographic estimates and those from successful stable coupled climate models that have been run without artificial flux adjustments for several centuries. Reasonable agreement among ocean transports is obtained with the disparate methods when the results from NCEP–NCAR reanalyses based upon residually derived (not model-generated) methods are used, and this suggests that improvements have occurred and convergence is to the true values. Atmospheric transports adjusted for spurious subterranean transports over land areas are inferred and show that poleward ocean heat transports are dominant only between 0° and 17°N. At 35° latitude, at which the peak total poleward transport in each hemisphere occurs, the atmospheric transport accounts for 78% of the total in the Northern Hemisphere and 92% in the Southern Hemisphere. In general, a much greater portion of the required poleward transport is contributed by the atmosphere than the ocean, as compared with previous estimates.
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BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Abstract
Prediction systems to enable Earth system predictability research on the subseasonal time scale have been developed with the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2) using two ...configurations that differ in their atmospheric components. One system uses the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6) with its top near 40 km, referred to as CESM2(CAM6). The other employs the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 6 (WACCM6) whose top extends to ∼140 km, and it includes fully interactive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry CESM2(WACCM6). Both systems are utilized to carry out subseasonal reforecasts for the 1999–2020 period following the Subseasonal Experiment’s (SubX) protocol. Subseasonal prediction skill from both systems is compared to those of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration CFSv2 and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational models. CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) show very similar subseasonal prediction skill of 2-m temperature, precipitation, the Madden–Julian oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation to its previous version and to the NOAA CFSv2 model. Overall, skill of CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) is a little lower than that of the ECMWF system. In addition to typical output provided by subseasonal prediction systems, CESM2 reforecasts provide comprehensive datasets for predictability research of multiple Earth system components, including three-dimensional output for many variables, and output specific to the mesosphere and lower-thermosphere (MLT) region from CESM2(WACCM6). It is shown that sudden stratosphere warming events, and the associated variability in the MLT, can be predicted ∼10 days in advance. Weekly real-time forecasts and reforecasts with CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) are freely available.
Significance Statement
We describe here the design and prediction skill of two subseasonal prediction systems based on two configurations of the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2): CESM2 with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 CESM2(CAM6) and CESM 2 with Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 6 CESM2(WACCM6) as its atmospheric component. These two systems provide a foundation for community-model based subseasonal prediction research. The CESM2(WACCM6) system provides a novel capability to explore the predictability of the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere. Both CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) demonstrate subseasonal surface prediction skill comparable to that of the NOAA CFSv2 model, and a little lower than that of the ECMWF forecasting system. CESM2 reforecasts provide a comprehensive dataset for predictability research of multiple aspects of the Earth system, including the whole atmosphere up to 140 km, land, and sea ice. Weekly real-time forecasts, reforecasts, and models are publicly available.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
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