Summary Background Chinese men now smoke more than a third of the world's cigarettes, following a large increase in urban then rural usage. Conversely, Chinese women now smoke far less than in ...previous generations. We assess the oppositely changing effects of tobacco on male and female mortality. Methods Two nationwide prospective studies 15 years apart recruited 220 000 men in about 1991 at ages 40–79 years (first study) and 210 000 men and 300 000 women in about 2006 at ages 35–74 years (second study), with follow-up during 1991–99 (mid-year 1995) and 2006–14 (mid-year 2010), respectively. Cox regression yielded sex-specific adjusted mortality rate ratios (RRs) comparing smokers (including any who had stopped because of illness, but not the other ex-smokers, who are described as having stopped by choice) versus never-smokers. Findings Two-thirds of the men smoked; there was little dependence of male smoking prevalence on age, but many smokers had not smoked cigarettes throughout adult life. Comparing men born before and since 1950, in the older generation, the age at which smoking had started was later and, particularly in rural areas, lifelong exclusive cigarette use was less common than in the younger generation. Comparing male mortality RRs in the first study (mid-year 1995) versus those in the second study (mid-year 2010), the proportional excess risk among smokers (RR-1) approximately doubled over this 15-year period (urban: RR 1·32 95% CI 1·24–1·41 vs 1·65 1·53–1·79; rural: RR 1·13 1·09–1·17 vs 1·22 1·16–1·29), as did the smoking-attributed fraction of deaths at ages 40–79 years (urban: 17% vs 26%; rural: 9% vs 14%). In the second study, urban male smokers who had started before age 20 years (which is now typical among both urban and rural young men) had twice the never-smoker mortality rate (RR 1·98, 1·79–2·19, approaching Western RRs), with substantial excess mortality from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD RR 9·09, 5·11–16·15), lung cancer (RR 3·78, 2·78–5·14), and ischaemic stroke or ischaemic heart disease (combined RR 2·03, 1·66–2·47). Ex-smokers who had stopped by choice (only 3% of ever-smokers in 1991, but 9% in 2006) had little smoking-attributed risk more than 10 years after stopping. Among Chinese women, however, there has been a tenfold intergenerational reduction in smoking uptake rates. In the second study, among women born in the 1930s, 1940s, 1950s, and since 1960 the proportions who had smoked were, respectively, 10%, 5%, 2%, and 1% (3097/30 943, 3265/62 246, 2339/97 344, and 1068/111 933). The smoker versus non-smoker RR of 1·51 (1·40–1·63) for all female mortality at ages 40–79 years accounted for 5%, 3%, 1%, and <1%, respectively, of all the female deaths in these four successive birth cohorts. In 2010, smoking caused about 1 million (840 000 male, 130 000 female) deaths in China. Interpretation Smoking will cause about 20% of all adult male deaths in China during the 2010s. The tobacco-attributed proportion is increasing in men, but low, and decreasing, in women. Although overall adult mortality rates are falling, as the adult population of China grows and the proportion of male deaths due to smoking increases, the annual number of deaths in China that are caused by tobacco will rise from about 1 million in 2010 to 2 million in 2030 and 3 million in 2050, unless there is widespread cessation. Funding Wellcome Trust, MRC, BHF, CR-UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, Chinese MoST and NSFC
Summary Background Aspirin is recommended for secondary prevention after transient ischaemic attack (TIA) or ischaemic stroke on the basis of trials showing a 13% reduction in long-term risk of ...recurrent stroke. However, the risk of major stroke is very high for only the first few days after TIA and minor ischaemic stroke, and observational studies show substantially greater benefits of early medical treatment in the acute phase than do longer-term trials. We hypothesised that the short-term benefits of early aspirin have been underestimated. Methods Pooling the individual patient data from all randomised trials of aspirin versus control in secondary prevention after TIA or ischaemic stroke, we studied the effects of aspirin on the risk and severity of recurrent stroke, stratified by the following time periods: less than 6 weeks, 6–12 weeks, and more than 12 weeks after randomisation. We compared the severity of early recurrent strokes between treatment groups with shift analysis of modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score. To understand possible mechanisms of action, we also studied the time course of the interaction between effects of aspirin and dipyridamole in secondary prevention of stroke. In a further analysis we pooled data from trials of aspirin versus control in which patients were randomised less than 48 h after major acute stroke, stratified by severity of baseline neurological deficit, to establish the very early time course of the effect of aspirin on risk of recurrent ischaemic stroke and how this differs by severity at baseline. Findings We pooled data for 15 778 participants from 12 trials of aspirin versus control in secondary prevention. Aspirin reduced the 6 week risk of recurrent ischaemic stroke by about 60% (84 of 8452 participants in the aspirin group had an ischaemic stroke vs 175 of 7326; hazard ratio HR 0·42, 95% CI 0·32–0·55, p<0·0001) and disabling or fatal ischaemic stroke by about 70% (36 of 8452 vs 110 of 7326; 0·29, 0·20–0·42, p<0·0001), with greatest benefit noted in patients presenting with TIA or minor stroke (at 0–2 weeks, two of 6691 participants in the aspirin group with TIA or minor stroke had a disabling or fatal ischaemic stroke vs 23 of 5726 in the control group, HR 0·07, 95% CI 0·02–0·31, p=0·0004; at 0–6 weeks, 14 vs 60 participants, 0·19, 0·11–0·34, p<0·0001). The effect of aspirin on early recurrent ischaemic stroke was due partly to a substantial reduction in severity (mRS shift analysis odds ratio OR 0·42, 0·26–0·70, p=0·0007). These effects were independent of dose, patient characteristics, or aetiology of TIA or stroke. Some further reduction in risk of ischaemic stroke accrued for aspirin only versus control from 6–12 weeks, but there was no benefit after 12 weeks (stroke risk OR 0·97, 0·84–1·12, p=0·67; severity mRS shift OR 1·00, 0·77–1·29, p=0·97). By contrast, dipyridamole plus aspirin versus aspirin alone had no effect on risk or severity of recurrent ischaemic stroke within 12 weeks (OR 0·90, 95% CI 0·65–1·25, p=0·53; mRS shift OR 0·90, 0·37–1·72, p=0·99), but dipyridamole did reduce risk thereafter (0·76, 0·63–0·92, p=0·005), particularly of disabling or fatal ischaemic stroke (0·64, 0·49–0·84, p=0·0010). We pooled data for 40 531 participants from three trials of aspirin versus control in major acute stroke. The reduction in risk of recurrent ischaemic stroke at 14 days was most evident in patients with less severe baseline deficits, and was substantial by the second day after starting treatment (2–3 day HR 0·37, 95% CI 0·25–0·57, p<0·0001). Interpretation Our findings confirm that medical treatment substantially reduces the risk of early recurrent stroke after TIA and minor stroke and identify aspirin as the key intervention. The considerable early benefit from aspirin warrants public education about self-administration after possible TIA. The previously unrecognised effect of aspirin on severity of early recurrent stroke, the diminishing benefit with longer-term use, and the contrasting time course of effects of dipyridamole have implications for understanding mechanisms of action. Funding Wellcome Trust, the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre, Oxford.
Summary Background Lowering LDL cholesterol with statin regimens reduces the risk of myocardial infarction, ischaemic stroke, and the need for coronary revascularisation in people without kidney ...disease, but its effects in people with moderate-to-severe kidney disease are uncertain. The SHARP trial aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of the combination of simvastatin plus ezetimibe in such patients. Methods This randomised double-blind trial included 9270 patients with chronic kidney disease (3023 on dialysis and 6247 not) with no known history of myocardial infarction or coronary revascularisation. Patients were randomly assigned to simvastatin 20 mg plus ezetimibe 10 mg daily versus matching placebo. The key prespecified outcome was first major atherosclerotic event (non-fatal myocardial infarction or coronary death, non-haemorrhagic stroke, or any arterial revascularisation procedure). All analyses were by intention to treat. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT00125593 , and ISRCTN54137607. Findings 4650 patients were assigned to receive simvastatin plus ezetimibe and 4620 to placebo. Allocation to simvastatin plus ezetimibe yielded an average LDL cholesterol difference of 0·85 mmol/L (SE 0·02; with about two-thirds compliance) during a median follow-up of 4·9 years and produced a 17% proportional reduction in major atherosclerotic events (526 11·3% simvastatin plus ezetimibe vs 619 13·4% placebo; rate ratio RR 0·83, 95% CI 0·74–0·94; log-rank p=0·0021). Non-significantly fewer patients allocated to simvastatin plus ezetimibe had a non-fatal myocardial infarction or died from coronary heart disease (213 4·6% vs 230 5·0%; RR 0·92, 95% CI 0·76–1·11; p=0·37) and there were significant reductions in non-haemorrhagic stroke (131 2·8% vs 174 3·8%; RR 0·75, 95% CI 0·60–0·94; p=0·01) and arterial revascularisation procedures (284 6·1% vs 352 7·6%; RR 0·79, 95% CI 0·68–0·93; p=0·0036). After weighting for subgroup-specific reductions in LDL cholesterol, there was no good evidence that the proportional effects on major atherosclerotic events differed from the summary rate ratio in any subgroup examined, and, in particular, they were similar in patients on dialysis and those who were not. The excess risk of myopathy was only two per 10 000 patients per year of treatment with this combination (9 0·2% vs 5 0·1%). There was no evidence of excess risks of hepatitis (21 0·5% vs 18 0·4%), gallstones (106 2·3% vs 106 2·3%), or cancer (438 9·4% vs 439 9·5%, p=0·89) and there was no significant excess of death from any non-vascular cause (668 14·4% vs 612 13·2%, p=0·13). Interpretation Reduction of LDL cholesterol with simvastatin 20 mg plus ezetimibe 10 mg daily safely reduced the incidence of major atherosclerotic events in a wide range of patients with advanced chronic kidney disease. Funding Merck/Schering-Plough Pharmaceuticals; Australian National Health and Medical Research Council; British Heart Foundation; UK Medical Research Council.
BackgroundChina consumes about 40% of the world's cigarettes, predominantly by men, following a large increase in recent decades. We assess sex-specific prevalence and changing patterns of smoking in ...Chinese adults in the current decade.MethodsA nationally representative survey of smoking was conducted in 2010 among 100 000 Chinese adults aged ≥18 years, using a multistage stratified cluster sampling method. Information on smoking frequency, type, amount, age started and quitting was collected. Sex-specific standardised prevalence and means were analysed and compared with estimates in the 1996 national survey.ResultsIn Chinese men aged ≥18, 62.4% were ever-smokers in 2010, including 54.0% current smokers and 8.4% ex-smokers. The smoking prevalence was higher in rural than in urban men (63.9% vs 58.4%). In younger men, the age to start smoking was earlier and exclusive cigarette use was much higher. Among current smokers, only 17.3% intended to quit. Compared with a similar survey in 1996 among adults aged 30–69, more smokers had quit in 2010 than in 1996 (11.0% vs 4.2%), but the number of cigarettes smoked per current smoker was higher (17.9 vs 15.2). In Chinese women, only 3.4% ever smoked and there has been a large intergenerational decrease in smoking uptake rates. In 2010, there were 318 million current smokers in China, consuming an estimated 1740 billion cigarettes.ConclusionsThe prevalence of smoking remained extremely high in men, but low and falling in Chinese women. Tobacco smoking remains an important public health issue in China, and stronger and more efficient tobacco control is urgently needed.
IMPORTANCE: In China, diabetes prevalence has increased substantially in recent decades, but there are no reliable estimates of the excess mortality currently associated with diabetes. OBJECTIVES: To ...assess the proportional excess mortality associated with diabetes and estimate the diabetes-related absolute excess mortality in rural and urban areas of China. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A 7-year nationwide prospective study of 512 869 adults aged 30 to 79 years from 10 (5 rural and 5 urban) regions in China, who were recruited between June 2004 and July 2008 and were followed up until January 2014. EXPOSURES: Diabetes (previously diagnosed or detected by screening) recorded at baseline. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: All-cause and cause-specific mortality, collected through established death registries. Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted mortality rate ratio (RR) comparing individuals with diabetes vs those without diabetes at baseline. RESULTS: Among the 512 869 participants, the mean (SD) age was 51.5 (10.7) years, 59% (n = 302 618) were women, and 5.9% (n = 30 280) had diabetes (4.1% in rural areas, 8.1% in urban areas, 5.8% of men, 6.1% of women, 3.1% had been previously diagnosed, and 2.8% were detected by screening). During 3.64 million person-years of follow-up, there were 24 909 deaths, including 3384 among individuals with diabetes. Compared with adults without diabetes, individuals with diabetes had a significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality (1373 vs 646 deaths per 100 000; adjusted RR, 2.00 95% CI, 1.93-2.08), which was higher in rural areas than in urban areas (rural RR, 2.17 95% CI, 2.07-2.29; urban RR, 1.83 95% CI, 1.73-1.94). Presence of diabetes was associated with increased mortality from ischemic heart disease (3287 deaths; RR, 2.40 95% CI, 2.19-2.63), stroke (4444 deaths; RR, 1.98 95% CI, 1.81-2.17), chronic liver disease (481 deaths; RR, 2.32 95% CI, 1.76-3.06), infections (425 deaths; RR, 2.29 95% CI, 1.76-2.99), and cancer of the liver (1325 deaths; RR, 1.54 95% CI, 1.28-1.86), pancreas (357 deaths; RR, 1.84 95% CI, 1.35-2.51), female breast (217 deaths; RR, 1.84 95% CI, 1.24-2.74), and female reproductive system (210 deaths; RR, 1.81 95% CI, 1.20-2.74). For chronic kidney disease (365 deaths), the RR was higher in rural areas (18.69 95% CI, 14.22-24.57) than in urban areas (6.83 95% CI, 4.73-9.88). Among those with diabetes, 10% of all deaths (16% rural; 4% urban) were due to definite or probable diabetic ketoacidosis or coma (408 deaths). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among adults in China, diabetes was associated with increased mortality from a range of cardiovascular and noncardiovascular diseases. Although diabetes was more common in urban areas, it was associated with greater excess mortality in rural areas.
In a study involving 451,665 adults in China, higher levels of fruit consumption were associated with lower blood pressure and blood glucose levels and, largely independent of these and other dietary ...and nondietary factors, with significant reductions in cardiovascular risk.
Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of premature death and disability worldwide and is responsible for more than 17 million deaths annually, with approximately 80% of the disease burden in low- and middle-income countries, such as China.
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A low level of fruit consumption is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease, accounting for an estimated 104 million disability-adjusted life-years worldwide in 2010,
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including approximately 30 million in China.
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However, these estimates were based mainly on findings from Western studies, with little reliable evidence from China and other developing countries, where diet, lifestyle factors, and disease patterns differ substantially from those . . .
Blood lipids are established risk factors for myocardial infarction (MI), but uncertainty persists about the relevance of lipids, lipoprotein particles, and circulating metabolites for MI and stroke ...subtypes.
This study sought to investigate the associations of plasma metabolic markers with risks of incident MI, ischemic stroke (IS), and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH).
In a nested case-control study (912 MI, 1,146 IS, and 1,138 ICH cases, and 1,466 common control subjects) 30 to 79 years of age in China Kadoorie Biobank, nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy measured 225 metabolic markers in baseline plasma samples. Logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for a 1-SD higher metabolic marker.
Very low-, intermediate-, and low-density lipoprotein particles were positively associated with MI and IS. High-density lipoprotein (HDL) particles were inversely associated with MI apart from small HDL. In contrast, no lipoprotein particles were associated with ICH. Cholesterol in large HDL was inversely associated with MI and IS (OR: 0.79 and 0.88, respectively), whereas cholesterol in small HDL was not (OR: 0.99 and 1.06, respectively). Triglycerides within all lipoproteins, including most HDL particles, were positively associated with MI, with a similar pattern for IS. Glycoprotein acetyls, ketone bodies, glucose, and docosahexaenoic acid were associated with all 3 diseases. The 225 metabolic markers showed concordant associations between MI and IS, but not with ICH.
Lipoproteins and lipids showed similar associations with MI and IS, but not with ICH. Within HDL particles, cholesterol concentrations were inversely associated, whereas triglyceride concentrations were positively associated with MI. Glycoprotein acetyls and several non–lipid-related metabolites associated with all 3 diseases.
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Genetic variants and lifestyle factors have been associated with gastric cancer risk, but the extent to which an increased genetic risk can be offset by a healthy lifestyle remains unknown. We aimed ...to establish a genetic risk model for gastric cancer and assess the benefits of adhering to a healthy lifestyle in individuals with a high genetic risk.
In this meta-analysis and prospective cohort study, we first did a fixed-effects meta-analysis of the association between genetic variants and gastric cancer in six independent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) with a case-control study design. These GWAS comprised 21 168 Han Chinese individuals, of whom 10 254 had gastric cancer and 10 914 geographically matched controls did not. Using summary statistics from the meta-analysis, we constructed five polygenic risk scores in a range of thresholds (p=5 × 10−4 p=5 × 10−5 p=5 × 10−6 p=5 × 10−7, and p=5 × 10−8) for gastric cancer. We then applied these scores to an independent, prospective, nationwide cohort of 100 220 individuals from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB), with more than 10 years of follow-up. The relative and absolute risk of incident gastric cancer associated with healthy lifestyle factors (defined as not smoking, never consuming alcohol, the low consumption of preserved foods, and the frequent intake of fresh fruits and vegetables), was assessed and stratified by genetic risk (low quintile 1 of the polygenic risk score, intermediate quintile 2–4 of the polygenic risk score, and high quintile 5 of the polygenic risk score). Individuals with a favourable lifestyle were considered as those who adopted all four healthy lifestyle factors, those with an intermediate lifestyle adopted two or three factors, and those with an unfavourable lifestyle adopted none or one factor.
The polygenic risk score derived from 112 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (p<5 × 10−5) showed the strongest association with gastric cancer risk (p=7·56 × 10−10). When this polygenic risk score was applied to the CKB cohort, we found that there was a significant increase in the relative risk of incident gastric cancer across the quintiles of the polygenic risk score (ptrend<0·0001). Compared with individuals who had a low genetic risk, those with an intermediate genetic risk (hazard ratio HR 1·54 95% CI 1·22–1·94, p=2·67 × 10−4) and a high genetic risk (2·08 1·61–2·69, p<0·0001) had a greater risk of gastric cancer. A similar increase in the relative risk of incident gastric cancer was observed across the lifestyle categories (ptrend<0·0001), with a higher risk of gastric cancer in those with an unfavourable lifestyle than those with a favourable lifestyle (2·03 1·46–2·83, p<0·0001). Participants with a high genetic risk and a favourable lifestyle had a lower risk of gastric cancer than those with a high genetic risk and an unfavourable lifestyle (0·53 0·29–0·99, p=0·048), with an absolute risk reduction of 1·12% (95% CI 0·62–1·56).
Chinese individuals at an increased risk of incident gastric cancer could be identified by use of our newly developed polygenic risk score. Compared with individuals at a high genetic risk who adopt an unhealthy lifestyle, those who adopt a healthy lifestyle could substantially reduce their risk of incident gastric cancer.
National Key R&D Program of China, National Natural Science Foundation of China, 333 High-Level Talents Cultivation Project of Jiangsu Province, and China Postdoctoral Science Foundation.
Tobacco smoking is a leading cause of premature death in China, especially among adult men. Since the implementation of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control in 2005, nationwide tobacco control ...has been strengthened, but its long-term impact on smoking prevalence is unclear.
Five nationally representative surveys of the China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance (CCDRFS) were conducted in 2007, 2010, 2013, 2015, and 2018. A total of 624,568 adults (278,605 men and 345,963 women) aged 18 to 69 years were randomly selected from 31 provinces (or equivalent) in China. Temporal changes in smoking prevalence and patterns (e.g., percentages of those smoking manufactured cigarettes, amount smoked, and age at smoking initiation) were analyzed, overall and by sex, urban or rural residence, year of birth, education and occupation, using linear regression methods. Among men, the standardized prevalence of current smoking decreased from 58.4% (95% confidence interval CI: 56.1 to 60.7) to 50.8% (95% CI: 49.1 to 52.5, p < 0.001) between 2007 and 2018, with annual decrease more pronounced in urban (55.7% 95% CI: 51.2 to 60.3 to 46.3% 95% CI: 43.7 to 49.0, p < 0.001) than rural men (59.9% 95% CI: 57.5 to 62.4 to 54.6% 95% CI: 52.6 to 56.6, p = 0.05) and in those born before than after 1980. Among rural men born after 1990, however, the prevalence increased from 40.2% 95% CI: 34.0 to 46.4 to 52.1% (95% CI: 45.7 to 58.5, p = 0.007), with the increase taking place mainly before 2015. Among women, smoking prevalence remained extremely low at around 2% during 2007 to 2018. No significant changes of current smoking prevalence (53.9% to 50.8%, p = 0.22) were observed in male patients with at least 1 of major chronic diseases (e.g., hypertension, diabetes, myocardial infarction, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)). In 2018, 25.6% of adults aged ≥18 years smoked, translating into an estimated 282 million smokers (271 million men and 11 million women) in China. Across 31 provinces, smoking prevalence varied greatly. The 3 provinces (Yunnan, Guizhou, and Hunan) with highest per capita tobacco production had highest smoking prevalence in men (68.0%, 63.4%, and 61.5%, respectively), while lowest prevalence was observed in Shanghai (34.8%). Since the children and teenage groups were not included in the surveys, we could not assess the smoking trends among youths. Furthermore, since the smoking behavior was self-reported, the smoking prevalence could be underestimated due to reporting bias.
In this study, we observed that the smoking prevalence has decreased steadily in recent decades in China, but there were diverging trends between urban and rural areas, especially among men born after 1980. Future tobacco control strategies should target rural young men, regions with high tobacco production, and patients suffering from chronic diseases.
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Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
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