The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) simulated by 10 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for the historical (1850–2005) and future climate is ...examined. The historical simulations of the AMOC mean state are more closely matched to observations than those of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Similarly to CMIP3, all models predict a weakening of the AMOC in the twenty-first century, though the degree of weakening varies considerably among the models. Under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario, the weakening by year 2100 is 5%–40% of the individual model’s historical mean state; under RCP8.5, the weakening increases to 15%–60% over the same period. RCP4.5 leads to the stabilization of the AMOC in the second half of the twenty-first century and a slower (then weakening rate) but steady recovery thereafter, while RCP8.5 gives rise to a continuous weakening of the AMOC throughout the twenty-first century. In the CMIP5 historical simulations, all but one model exhibit a weak downward trend ranging from −0.1 to −1.8 Sverdrup (Sv) century−1; 1 Sv ≡ 10⁶ m³ s−1 over the twentieth century. Additionally, the multimodel ensemble–mean AMOC exhibits multidecadal variability with a ∼60-yr periodicity and a peak-to-peak amplitude of ∼1 Sv; all individual models project consistently onto this multidecadal mode. This multidecadal variability is significantly correlated with similar variations in the net surface shortwave radiative flux in the North Atlantic and with surface freshwater flux variations in the subpolar latitudes. Potential drivers for the twentieth-century multimodel AMOC variability, including external climate forcing and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the implication of these results on the North Atlantic SST variability are discussed.
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BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Speleothem oxygen isotope records have revolutionized our understanding of the paleo East Asian monsoon, yet there is fundamental disagreement on what they represent in terms of the hydroclimate ...changes. We report a multiproxy speleothem record of monsoon evolution during the last deglaciation from the middle Yangtze region, which indicates a wetter central eastern China during North Atlantic cooling episodes, despite the oxygen isotopic record suggesting a weaker monsoon. We show that this apparent contradiction can be resolved if the changes are interpreted as a lengthening of the Meiyu rains and shortened post-Meiyu stage, in accordance with a recent hypothesis. Model simulations support this interpretation and further reveal the role of the westerlies in communicating the North Atlantic influence to the East Asian climate.
We show in climate model experiments that large-scale afforestation in northern mid-latitudes warms the Northern Hemisphere and alters global circulation patterns. An expansion of dark forests ...increases the absorption of solar energy and increases surface temperature, particularly in regions where the land surface is unable to compensate with latent heat flux due to water limitation. Atmospheric circulation redistributes the anomalous energy absorbed in the northern hemisphere, in particular toward the south, through altering the Hadley circulation, resulting in the northward displacement of the tropical rain bands. Precipitation decreases over parts of the Amazon basin affecting productivity and increases over the Sahel and Sahara regions in Africa. We find that the response of climate to afforestation in mid-latitudes is determined by the amount of soil moisture available to plants with the greatest warming found in water-limited regions. Mid-latitude afforestation is found to have a small impact on modeled global temperatures and on global CO2, but regional heating from the increase in forest cover is capable of driving unintended changes in circulation and precipitation. The ability of vegetation to affect remote circulation has implications for strategies for climate mitigation.
A speleothem δ ¹⁸O record from Xiaobailong cave in southwest China characterizes changes in summer monsoon precipitation in Northeastern India, the Himalayan foothills, Bangladesh, and northern ...Indochina over the last 252 kyr. This record is dominated by 23-kyr precessional cycles punctuated by prominent millennial-scale oscillations that are synchronous with Heinrich events in the North Atlantic. It also shows clear glacial–interglacial variations that are consistent with marine and other terrestrial proxies but are different from the cave records in East China. Corroborated by isotope-enabled global circulation modeling, we hypothesize that this disparity reflects differing changes in atmospheric circulation and moisture trajectories associated with climate forcing as well as with associated topographic changes during glacial periods, in particular redistribution of air mass above the growing ice sheets and the exposure of the “land bridge” in the Maritime continents in the western equatorial Pacific.
Significance This paper presents a new long speleothem δ ¹⁸O time series from Xiaobailong cave in southwest China that characterizes changes in a major branch of Indian summer monsoon precipitation over the last 252 kyrs. This record shows not only 23-kyr precessional cycles punctuated by prominent millennial-scale weak monsoon events synchronous with Heinrich events in the North Atlantic, but also clear glacial–interglacial variations that are consistent with marine records but different from the cave records in East China. The speleothem records of Xiaobailong and other caves in East China show that the relationship between the Indian and the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation is not invariant, but rather varies on different timescales depending on the nature and magnitude of the climate forcing.
The causal mechanisms responsible for the abrupt climate changes of the Last Glacial Period remain unclear. One major difficulty is dating ice-rafted debris deposits associated with Heinrich events: ...Extensive iceberg influxes into the North Atlantic Ocean linked to global impacts on climate and biogeochemistry. In a new ice core record of atmospheric methane with ultrahigh temporal resolution, we find abrupt methane increases within Heinrich stadials 1, 2,4, and 5 that, uniquely, have no counterparts in Greenland temperature proxies. Using a heuristic model of tropical rainfall distribution, we propose that Hudson Strait Heinrich events caused rainfall intensification over Southern Hemisphere land areas, thereby producing excess methane in tropical wetlands. Our findings suggest that the climatic impacts of Heinrich events persisted for 740 to 1520 years.
The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in atmospheric general circulation models (coupled to slab ocean) shift southwards in response to northern extratropical cooling. Previous studies have ...demonstrated the utility of diagnosing the atmospheric energy fluxes in interpreting this teleconnection. This study investigates the nature of global energy flux changes in response to North Atlantic high latitude cooling applied to the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 coupled to a slab ocean, focusing on key local and remote feedbacks that collectively act to alter the energy budget and atmospheric energy transport. We also investigate the relative roles of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and energy flux changes in the ITCZ response to North Atlantic cooling. Using a radiative kernel technique, we quantify the effects of key feedbacks—temperature, cloud and water vapor, to the top-of-the-atmosphere radiative flux changes. The results show only partial local energy flux compensation to the initial perturbation in the high latitudes, originating from the negative temperature feedback and opposed by positive shortwave albedo and longwave water vapor feedbacks. Thus, an increase in the atmospheric energy transport to the Northern extratropics is required to close the energy budget. The additional energy flux providing this increase comes from top-of-the-atmosphere radiative flux increase over the southern tropics, primarily from cloud, temperature and longwave water vapor feedbacks, and largely as a consequence of increased deep convection. It has been previously argued that the role of tropical SST changes was secondary to the role played by the atmospheric energy flux requirements in controlling the ITCZ shifts, proposing that the SST response is a result of the surface energy budget and not a driver of the precipitation response. Using a set of idealized simulations with the fixed tropical SSTs, we demonstrate that the ITCZ shifts are not possible without the tropical SST changes and suggest that the tropical SSTs are a more suitable driver of tropical precipitation shifts compared to the atmospheric energy fluxes. In our simulations, the ITCZ shifts are influenced mainly by the local (tropical) SST forcing, apparently independent of the actual high latitude energy demand.
Speleothem oxygen isotope records over East Asia reveal apparently large and rapid paleoclimate changes over the last several hundred thousand years. However, what the isotopic variation actually ...represent in terms of the regional climate and circulation is debated. We present an answer that emerges from an analysis of the interannual variation in amount-weighted annual δ18O of precipitation over East Asia as simulated by an isotope-enabled model constrained by large-scale atmospheric reanalysis fields. 18O-enriched years have reduced summer seasonality both in terms of precipitation isotopes and in the large-scale circulation. Changes occur between June and October, where the δ18O of precipitation (δ18Op) transitions from the isotopically heavier winter to the lighter summer regime. For 18O-enriched years, this transition is less pronounced. Variations in precipitation amount alone are insufficient to explain the amount-weighted annual δ18Op between 18O-enriched and 18O-depleted years. Reduced summer seasonality is also expressed in the low-level monsoonal southerlies and upper-level westerlies; for the latter, the northward migration across the Tibetan Plateau in the summer is less pronounced. Our result thus implicates the westerlies across the plateau as the proximate cause of East Asian paleomonsoon changes, manifested as a modulation of its summer peak.
The summer rainfall climate of East Asia underwent large and abrupt changes during past climates, in response to precessional forcing, glacial–interglacial cycles as well as abrupt changes to the ...North Atlantic during the Last Glacial. However, current interpretations of said changes are typically formulated in terms of modulation of summer monsoon intensity, and do not account for the known complexity in the seasonal evolution of East Asian rainfall, which exhibits sharp transition from the Spring regime to the Meiyu, and then again from the Meiyu to the Summer regime.
We explore the interpretation that East Asian rainfall climate undergoes a modulation of its seasonality during said paleoclimate changes. Following previous suggestions we focus on role of the westerly jet over Asia, namely that its latitude relative to Tibet is critical in determining the stepwise transitions in East Asian rainfall seasons. In support of this linkage, we show from observational data that the interannual co-variation of June (July–August) rainfall and upper tropospheric zonal winds show properties consistent with an altered timing of the transition to the Meiyu (Summer), and with more northward-shifted westerlies for earlier transitions.
We similarly suggest that East Asian paleoclimate changes resulted from an altered timing in the northward evolution of the jet and hence the seasonal transitions, in particular the transition of the jet from south of the Plateau to the north that determines the seasonal transition from Spring rains to the Meiyu. In an extreme scenario – which we speculate the climate system tended towards during stadial (cold) phases of D/O stadials and periods of low Northern Hemisphere summer insolation – the jet does not jump north of the Plateau, essentially keeping East Asia in prolonged Spring conditions.
We argue that this hypothesis provides a viable explanation for a key paleoproxy signature of D/O stadials over East Asia, namely the heavier mean δ18O of precipitation as recorded in speleothem records. The southward jet position prevents the low-level monsoonal flow – which is isotopically light – from penetrating into the interior of East Asia; as such, precipitation there will be heavier, consistent with speleothem records. This hypothesis can also explain other key evidences of East Asian paleoclimate changes, in particular the occurrence of dusty conditions during North Atlantic stadials, and the southward migration of the Holocene optimal rainfall.
•We explore role of seasonal rainfall transitions in East Asian paleoclimate change.•Seasonal regimes determined by meridional position of westerlies relative to Tibet.•East Asian paleoclimate changes reflect systematic meridional shifts to westerlies.•Modern-day analogs and model simulations support this hypothesis.•Hypothesis may partly explain cave records of East Asian paleoclimate.
From observational analysis a Pacific mode of variability in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ)/cold tongue region is identified that possesses characteristics and interpretation similar to ...the dominant “meridional” mode of interannual–decadal variability in the tropical Atlantic. The Pacific and Atlantic meridional modes are characterized by an anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) gradient across the mean latitude of the ITCZ coupled to an anomalous displacement of the ITCZ toward the warmer hemisphere. Both are forced by trade wind variations in their respective northern subtropical oceans. The Pacific meridional mode exists independently of ENSO, although ENSO nonlinearity projects strongly on it during the peak anomaly season of boreal spring. It is suggested that the Pacific and Atlantic modes are analogous, governed by physics intrinsic to the ITCZ/cold tongue complex.
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BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
This study explores how the termination of the mei-yu is dynamically linked to the westerlies impinging on the Tibetan Plateau. It is found that the mei-yu stage terminates when the maximum ...upper-tropospheric westerlies shift beyond the northern edge of the plateau, around 40°N. This termination is accompanied by the disappearance of tropospheric northerlies over northeastern China. The link between the transit of the jet axis across the northern edge of the plateau, the disappearance of northerlies, and termination of the mei-yu holds on a range of time scales from interannual through seasonal and pentad. Diagnostic analysis indicates that the weakening of the meridional moisture contrast and meridional wind convergence, mainly resulting from the disappearance of northerlies, causes the demise of the mei-yu front. The authors propose that the westerlies migrating north of the plateau and consequent weakening of the extratropical northerlies triggers the mei-yu termination. Model simulations are employed to test the causality between the jet and the orographic downstream northerlies by repositioning the northern edge of the plateau. As the plateau edge extends northward, orographic forcing on the westerlies strengthens, leading to persistent strong downstream northerlies and a prolonged mei-yu. Idealized simulations with a dry dynamical core further demonstrate the dynamical link between the weakening of orographically forced downstream northerlies with the positioning of the jet from south to north of the plateau. Changes in the magnitude of orographically forced stationary waves are proposed to explain why the downstream northerlies disappear when the jet axis migrates beyond the northern edge of the plateau.
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BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
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