Fire regimes are changing across the globe in response to complex interactions between climate, fuel, and fire across space and time. Despite these complex interactions, research into predicting fire ...regime change is often unidimensional, typically focusing on direct relationships between fire activity and climate, increasing the chances of erroneous fire predictions that have ignored feedbacks with, for example, fuel loads and availability. Here, we quantify the direct and indirect role of climate on fire regime change in eucalypt dominated landscapes using a novel simulation approach that uses a landscape fire modelling framework to simulate fire regimes over decades to centuries. We estimated the relative roles of climate‐mediated changes as both direct effects on fire weather and indirect effects on fuel load and structure in a full factorial simulation experiment (present and future weather, present and future fuel) that included six climate ensemble members. We applied this simulation framework to predict changes in fire regimes across six temperate forested landscapes in south‐eastern Australia that encompass a broad continuum from climate‐limited to fuel‐limited. Climate‐mediated change in weather and fuel was predicted to intensify fire regimes in all six landscapes by increasing wildfire extent and intensity and decreasing fire interval, potentially led by an earlier start to the fire season. Future weather was the dominant factor influencing changes in all the tested fire regime attributes: area burnt, area burnt at high intensity, fire interval, high‐intensity fire interval, and season midpoint. However, effects of future fuel acted synergistically or antagonistically with future weather depending on the landscape and the fire regime attribute. Our results suggest that fire regimes are likely to shift across temperate ecosystems in south‐eastern Australia in coming decades, particularly in climate‐limited systems where there is the potential for a greater availability of fuels to burn through increased aridity.
Climate can influence future fire regimes directly through changes to weather, and indirectly through changes to fuel. We estimated the relative roles of climate‐mediated changes on fire weather and fuel load and structure in a full factorial simulation experiment that included six climate ensemble members. We applied this simulation framework to predict changes in fire regimes across six temperate forested landscapes in south‐eastern Australia. Future weather was the dominant factor influencing changes in fire regimes with the greatest changes occurring in climate‐limited systems where there is potential for a greater availability of fuels to burn through increased aridity.
The Getting It Right First Time (GIRFT) process is designed to improve the care of patients in the National Health Service (NHS) in England through in-depth review of services, benchmarking and ...presenting a data-driven evidence base to support change. Although it started as a pilot project targeting unwarranted variation in elective orthopaedic surgery, it rapidly became apparent that the approach of clinically led deep dives to review the activity in individual orthopaedic units was effective in improving standards of care and resulted in substantial cost savings that could be reinvested in the clinical service. GIRFT has now expanded to encompass 40 clinical specialties and is funded nationally by the NHS in England. The purpose of this article is to describe its application and benefit to cardiology.
Glioblastoma is the most common primary malignant brain tumor in adults and is associated with poor survival. The Ivy Foundation Early Phase Clinical Trials Consortium conducted a randomized, ...multi-institution clinical trial to evaluate immune responses and survival following neoadjuvant and/or adjuvant therapy with pembrolizumab in 35 patients with recurrent, surgically resectable glioblastoma. Patients who were randomized to receive neoadjuvant pembrolizumab, with continued adjuvant therapy following surgery, had significantly extended overall survival compared to patients that were randomized to receive adjuvant, post-surgical programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) blockade alone. Neoadjuvant PD-1 blockade was associated with upregulation of T cell- and interferon-γ-related gene expression, but downregulation of cell-cycle-related gene expression within the tumor, which was not seen in patients that received adjuvant therapy alone. Focal induction of programmed death-ligand 1 in the tumor microenvironment, enhanced clonal expansion of T cells, decreased PD-1 expression on peripheral blood T cells and a decreasing monocytic population was observed more frequently in the neoadjuvant group than in patients treated only in the adjuvant setting. These findings suggest that the neoadjuvant administration of PD-1 blockade enhances both the local and systemic antitumor immune response and may represent a more efficacious approach to the treatment of this uniformly lethal brain tumor.
Aim
The aims were: (1) to identify the environmental drivers of interannual variation in wildfire extent and severity; (2) to examine temporal trends in climatic potential for large and severe ...wildfires; and (3) to assess whether environmental conditions experienced during the 2019–2020 mega‐fire season were anomalous.
Location
South‐eastern Australia.
Time period
1953–2020.
Major taxa studied
Temperate forests.
Methods
We used satellite‐derived fire severity mapping from 1988 to 2020 to model the effects of drought, weather and fuels on the annual area burned and the proportion of the area burned that was impacted by high‐severity fire across four bioregions. Trends in wildfire extent and severity were then estimated from 1953 to 2020 using these derived models and gridded climate data to assess changes in climatic potential for large and severe wildfires. Estimates of wildfire extent and severity for the 2019–2020 fire season were then assessed against prior seasons (1953–2019).
Results
Annual area burned was positively related to the severity of seasonal drought and frequency of fire weather conditions that promote substantial daily fire growth. Wildfire severity was elevated in years with severe fire weather and increased with increasing antecedent drought in years without severe fire weather. Fuels had a lesser effect on wildfire extent and severity than climate. Potential fire extent and severity have increased over time in response to an increased severity of drought and worsening fire weather conditions. Estimates of wildfire extent and severity during the 2019–2020 fire season approached the upper extreme within each bioregion, owing to widespread extreme climatic conditions.
Main conclusions
The climatic potential for large and severe forest fires has increased across south‐eastern Australia since the 1950s, probably because of anthropogenic climate change. The magnitude and severity of the 2019–2020 fires reflected climatic conditions that are driving an increase in the size and severity of wildfires.
Termites play an important ecological role in many ecosystems, particularly in nutrient-poor arid and semi-arid environments. We examined the distribution and occurrence of termites in the ...fire-prone, semi-arid mallee region of south-eastern Australia. In addition to periodic large wildfires, land managers use fire as a tool to achieve both asset protection and ecological outcomes in this region. Twelve taxa of termites were detected by using systematic searches and grids of cellulose baits at 560 sites, clustered in 28 landscapes selected to represent different fire mosaic patterns. There was no evidence of a significant relationship between the occurrence of termite species and time-since-fire at the site scale. Rather, the occurrence of species was related to habitat features such as the density of mallee trees and large logs (>10 cm diameter). Species richness was greater in chenopod mallee vegetation on heavier soils in swales, rather than Triodia mallee vegetation of the sandy dune slopes. At the landscape scale, there was little evidence that the frequency of occurrence of termite species was related to fire, and no evidence that habitat heterogeneity generated by fire influenced termite species richness. The most influential factor at the landscape scale was the environmental gradient represented by average annual rainfall. Although termites may be associated with flammable habitat components (e.g. dead wood), they appear to be buffered from the effects of fire by behavioural traits, including nesting underground, and the continued availability of dead wood after fire. There is no evidence to support the hypothesis that a fine-scale, diverse mosaic of post-fire age-classes will enhance the diversity of termites. Rather, termites appear to be resistant to the effects of fire at multiple spatial scales.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The performance of courtship signals provides information about the behavioural state and quality of the signaller, and females can use such information for social decision-making (e.g. mate choice). ...However, relatively little is known about the degree to which the perception of and preference for differences in motor performance are shaped by developmental experiences. Furthermore, the neural substrates that development could act upon to influence the processing of performance features remains largely unknown. In songbirds, females use song to identify males and select mates. Moreover, female songbirds are often sensitive to variation in male song performance. Consequently, we investigated how developmental exposure to adult male song affected behavioural and neural responses to song in a small, gregarious songbird, the zebra finch. Zebra finch males modulate their song performance when courting females, and previous work has shown that females prefer the high-performance, female-directed courtship song. However, unlike females allowed to hear and interact with an adult male during development, females reared without developmental song exposure did not demonstrate behavioural preferences for high-performance courtship songs. Additionally, auditory responses to courtship and non-courtship song were altered in adult females raised without developmental song exposure. These data highlight the critical role of developmental auditory experience in shaping the perception and processing of song performance.
Aim: Managing fire is critical for the conservation of biodiversity in many ecosystems globally. To manage fire effectively, it is necessary to identify the temporal and spatial scales at which it ...affects a diverse range of species. This information is challenging to obtain for rare and threatened species for which data often are sparse, and in systems with long fire-return intervals (e.g. >100 years). We tested the effects of a century of fires on the distribution of 12 threatened bird species across a 100,000 km² region in which "long-unburnt" vegetation has been identified as important for the diversity of common species. Location: Semi-arid mallee woodlands of south-eastern Australia. Methods: We developed spatially explicit models to identify the effects of fire history and climatic factors on the distribution of 12 threatened bird species, including two globally endangered species, the Mallee Emu-wren (Stipiturus mallee) and Black-eared Miner (Manorina melanotis). Results: Fire was a driver of distribution for all species. Four species were common in younger vegetation (<20 years post-fire) and 11 were most common in mid (20-60 years post-fire) to older (>60 years post-fire) vegetation. Species' distributions were further restricted to areas associated with particular vegetation types and climatic conditions. Main conclusions: Comprehensive investigation of the response to fire by a range of threatened species highlights the importance of what is now recognized as midsuccessional mallee vegetation (20-60 years post-fire), and that species' preferences for previously identified "long-unburnt" vegetation extend to >60 years post-fire. Fire management conducted with incomplete knowledge, or which is focussed on introducing prescribed burns or suppressing fires for early/late-successional species alone, is unlikely to maximize biodiversity. Effective fire management for biodiversity requires the promotion of ecological processes that result in key successional stages at particular locations in the landscape.
Aim
Many species are adapted to a particular fire regime and major deviations from that regime may lead to localized extinction. Here, we quantify immaturity risks to an obligate‐seeder forest tree ...using an objectively designed climate model ensemble and a probabilistic fire regime simulator to predict future fire regimes.
Location
Alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis) distribution, Victoria, south‐eastern Australia.
Methods
We used a fire regime model (FROST) with six climate projections from a climate model ensemble across 3.7 million hectares of native forest and non‐native vegetation to examine immaturity risks to obligate‐seeder forests dominated by alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis), which has a primary juvenile period of approximately 20 years. Our models incorporated current and future projected climate including fuel feedbacks to simulate fire regimes over 100 years. We then used Random Forest modelling to evaluate which spatial characteristics of the landscape were associated with high immaturity risks to alpine ash forest patches.
Results
Significant shifts to the fire regime were predicted under all six future climate projections. Increases in both wildfire extent (total area burnt, area burnt at high intensity) and frequency were predicted with an average increase of up to 110 hectares burnt annually by short‐interval fires (i.e., within the expected minimum time to reproductive maturity). The immaturity risk posed by short‐interval fires to alpine ash forest patches was well explained by Random Forest models and varied with both location and environmental variables.
Main conclusions
Alpine ash forests are predicted to be burned at greater intensities and shorter intervals under future fire regimes. About 67% of the current alpine ash distribution was predicted to be at some level of immaturity risk over the 100‐year modelling period, with the greatest risks to those patches located on the periphery of the current distribution, closer to roads or surrounded by a drier landscape at lower elevations.
Google health-based Knowledge Panels were designed to provide users with high-quality basic medical information on a specific condition. However, any errors contained within Knowledge Panels could ...result in the widespread distribution of inaccurate health information. We explored the potential for inaccuracies to exist within Google's health-based Knowledge Panels by focusing on a single well-studied pathogen, Ebola virus (EBOV). We then evaluated the accuracy of those transmission modes listed within the Google Ebola Knowledge Panel and investigated the pervasiveness of any misconceptions associated with inaccurate transmission modes among persons living in Africa. We found that the Google Ebola Knowledge Panel inaccurately listed insect bites or stings as modes of EBOV transmission. Our scoping review found 27 articles and reports that revealed that 9 of 11 countries where misconceptions regarding insect transmission of EBOV have been reported are locations of current (i.e., Democratic Republic of Congo and Guinea) or previous EBOV outbreaks. We found reports that up to 26.6% (155/582) of study respondents in Democratic Republic of Congo believed mosquito bite avoidance would prevent EBOV; in other locations of previous large-scale EBOV outbreaks (e.g., Guinea), up to 61.0% (304/498) of respondents believed insects were involved in EBOV transmission. Our findings highlight the potential for errors to exist within the health information contained in Google's health-based Knowledge Panels. Such errors could perpetuate misconceptions or misinformation, leading to mistrust of health workers and aid agencies and in turn undermining public health education or outbreak response efforts.
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