Prediction models are developed to aid health care providers in estimating the probability or risk that a specific disease or condition is present (diagnostic models) or that a specific event will ...occur in the future (prognostic models), to inform their decision making. However, the overwhelming evidence shows that the quality of reporting of prediction model studies is poor. Only with full and clear reporting of information on all aspects of a prediction model can risk of bias and potential usefulness of prediction models be adequately assessed. The Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) Initiative developed a set of recommendations for the reporting of studies developing, validating, or updating a prediction model, whether for diagnostic or prognostic purposes. This article describes how the TRIPOD Statement was developed. An extensive list of items based on a review of the literature was created, which was reduced after a Web based survey and revised during a three day meeting in June 2011 with methodologists, health care professionals, and journal editors. The list was refined during several meetings of the steering group and in e-mail discussions with the wider group of TRIPOD contributors. The resulting TRIPOD Statement is a checklist of 22 items, deemed essential for transparent reporting of a prediction model study. The TRIPOD Statement aims to improve the transparency of the reporting of a prediction model study regardless of the study methods used. The TRIPOD Statement is best used in conjunction with the TRIPOD explanation and elaboration document. To aid the editorial process and readers of prediction model studies, it is recommended that authors include a completed checklist in their submission (also available at www.tripod-statement.org).To encourage dissemination of the TRIPOD Statement, this article is freely accessible on the Annals of Internal Medicine Web site (www.annals.org) and will be also published in BJOG, British Journal of Cancer, British Journal of Surgery, BMC Medicine, The BMJ, Circulation, Diabetic Medicine, European Journal of Clinical Investigation, European Urology, and Journal of Clinical Epidemiology. The authors jointly hold the copyright of this article. An accompanying explanation and elaboration article is freely available only on www.annals.org; Annals of Internal Medicine holds copyright for that article.
Background
Prediction models are developed to aid healthcare providers in estimating the probability or risk that a specific disease or condition is present (diagnostic models) or that a specific ...event will occur in the future (prognostic models), to inform their decision‐making. However, the overwhelming evidence shows that the quality of reporting of prediction model studies is poor. Only with full and clear reporting of information on all aspects of a prediction model can risk of bias and potential usefulness of prediction models be adequately assessed. The Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) Initiative developed a set of recommendations for the reporting of studies developing, validating or updating a prediction model, whether for diagnostic or prognostic purposes. This article describes how the TRIPOD Statement was developed.
Methods
An extensive list of items based on a review of the literature was created, which was reduced after a web‐based survey and revised during a 3‐day meeting in June 2011 with methodologists, healthcare professionals and journal editors. The list was refined during several meetings of the steering group and in e‐mail discussions with the wider group of TRIPOD contributors.
Results
The resulting TRIPOD Statement is a checklist of 22 items, deemed essential for transparent reporting of a prediction model study.
Conclusion
The TRIPOD Statement aims to improve the transparency of the reporting of a prediction model study regardless of the study methods used. The TRIPOD Statement is best used in conjunction with the TRIPOD explanation and elaboration document. A complete checklist is available at http://www.tripod‐statement.org.
Models for estimating an individual's risk of having or developing a disease are abundant in the medical literature, yet many do not meet the methodological standards that have been set to maximise ...generalisability and utility. This paper presents an overview of ten steps from the conception of the study to the implementation of the risk model and discusses common pitfalls. We discuss crucial aspects of study design, data collection, model development and performance evaluation, and discuss how to bring the model to clinical practice.
Tweetable
We present an overview of ten key steps for the development of risk models and discuss common pitfalls.
Tweetable
We present an overview of ten key steps for the development of risk models and discuss common pitfalls.
The rise of big clinical databases Cook, J. A.; Collins, G. S.
British journal of surgery,
01/2015, Letnik:
102, Številka:
2
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Background
The routine collection of large amounts of clinical data, ‘big data’, is becoming more common, as are research studies that make use of these data source. The aim of this paper is to ...provide an overview of the uses of data from large multi‐institution clinical databases for research.
Methods
This article considers the potential benefits, the types of data source, and the use to which the data is put. Additionally, the main challenges associated with using these data sources for research purposes are considered.
Results
Common uses of the data include: providing population characteristics; identifying risk factors and developing prediction (diagnostic or prognostic) models; observational studies comparing different interventions; exploring variation between healthcare providers; and as a supplementary source of data for another study. The main advantages of using such big data sources are their comprehensive nature, the relatively large number of patients they comprise, and the ability to compare healthcare providers. The main challenges are demonstrating data quality and confidently applying a causal interpretation to the study findings.
Conclusion
Large clinical database research studies are becoming ubiquitous and offer a number of potential benefits. However, the limitations of such data sources must not be overlooked; each research study needs to be considered carefully in its own right, together with the justification for using the data for that specific purpose.
Becoming ubiquitous
Abstract
We report the discovery of six ultra-faint Milky Way satellites identified through matched-filter searches conducted using Dark Energy Camera (DECam) data processed as part of the second ...data release of the DECam Local Volume Exploration (DELVE) survey. Leveraging deep Gemini/GMOS-N imaging (for four candidates) as well as follow-up DECam imaging (for two candidates), we characterize the morphologies and stellar populations of these systems. We find that these candidates all share faint absolute magnitudes (
M
V
≥ −3.2 mag) and old, metal-poor stellar populations (
τ
> 10 Gyr, Fe/H < −1.4 dex). Three of these systems are more extended (
r
1/2
> 15 pc), while the other three are compact (
r
1/2
< 10 pc). From these properties, we infer that the former three systems (Boötes V, Leo Minor I, and Virgo II) are consistent with ultra-faint dwarf galaxy classifications, whereas the latter three (DELVE 3, DELVE 4, and DELVE 5) are likely ultra-faint star clusters. Using data from the Gaia satellite, we confidently measure the proper motion of Boötes V, Leo Minor I, and DELVE 4, and tentatively detect a proper-motion signal from DELVE 3 and DELVE 5; no signal is detected for Virgo II. We use these measurements to explore possible associations between the newly discovered systems and the Sagittarius dwarf spheroidal, the Magellanic Clouds, and the Vast Polar Structure, finding several plausible associations. Our results offer a preview of the numerous ultra-faint stellar systems that will soon be discovered by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and highlight the challenges of classifying the faintest stellar systems.
Numerical modelling of impact cratering has reached a high degree of sophistication; however, the treatment of porous materials still poses a large problem in hydrocode calculations. We present a ...novel approach for dealing with porous compaction in numerical modelling of impact crater formation. In contrast to previous attempts (e.g., P-alpha model, snowplow model), our model accounts for the collapse of pore space by assuming that the compaction function depends upon volumetric strain rather than pressure. Our new
ɛ-alpha model requires only four input parameters and each has a physical meaning. The model is simple and intuitive and shows good agreement with a wide variety of experimental data, ranging from static compaction tests to highly dynamic impact experiments. Our major objective in developing the model is to investigate the effect of porosity and internal friction on transient crater formation. We present preliminary numerical model results that suggest that both porosity and internal friction play an important role in limiting crater growth over a large range in gravity-scaled source size.
In recent years, one of the most important factors for success among baseball pitchers is fastball velocity. The purpose of this study was to (1) to develop statistical and machine learning models of ...fastball velocity, (2) to identify the strongest predictors of fastball velocity, and (3) to compare the models' prediction performances. Three dimensional biomechanical analyses were performed on high school (n = 165) and college (n = 62) baseball pitchers. A total of 16 kinetic and kinematic predictors from the entire pitching sequence were included in regression and machine learning models. All models were internally validated through ten-fold cross-validation. Model performance was evaluated through root mean square error (RMSE) and calibration with 95% confidence intervals. Gradient boosting machines demonstrated the best prediction performance RMSE: 0.34; Calibration: 1.00 (95% CI: 0.999, 1.001), while regression demonstrated the greatest prediction error RMSE: 2.49; Calibration: 1.00 (95% CI: 0.85, 1.15). Maximum elbow extension velocity (relative influence: 19.3%), maximum humeral rotation velocity (9.6%), maximum lead leg ground reaction force resultant (9.1%), trunk forward flexion at release (7.9%), time difference of maximum pelvis rotation velocity and maximum trunk rotation velocity (7.8%) demonstrated the greatest influence on pitch velocity. Gradient boosting machines demonstrated better calibration and reduced RMSE compared to regression. The influence of lead leg ground reaction force resultant and trunk and arm kinematics on pitch velocity demonstrates the interdependent relationship of the entire kinetic chain during the pitching motion. Coaches, players, and performance professionals should focus on the identified metrics when designing pitch velocity improvement programs.
Impact‐induced fracturing creates porosity that is responsible for many aspects of the geophysical signature of an impact crater. This paper describes a simple model of dilatancy—the creation of ...porosity in a shearing geological material—and its implementation in the iSALE shock physics code. The model is used to investigate impact‐induced dilatancy during simple and complex crater formation on Earth. Simulations of simple crater formation produce porosity distributions consistent with observations. Dilatancy model parameters appropriate for low‐quality rock masses give the best agreement with observation; more strongly dilatant behavior would require substantial postimpact porosity reduction. The tendency for rock to dilate less when shearing under high pressure is an important property of the model. Pressure suppresses impact‐induced dilatancy: in the shock wave, at depth beneath the crater floor, and in the convergent subcrater flow that forms the central uplift. Consequently, subsurface porosity distribution is a strong function of crater size, which is reflected in the inferred gravity anomaly. The Bouguer gravity anomaly for simulated craters smaller than 25 km is a broad low with a magnitude proportional to the crater radius; larger craters exhibit a central gravity high within a suppressed gravity low. Lower crustal pressures on the Moon relative to Earth imply that impact‐induced dilatancy is more effective on the Moon than Earth for the same size impact in an initially nonporous target. This difference may be mitigated by the presence of porosity in the lunar crust.
Key Points
A model to account for dilatancy in numerical impact simulations is presentedSimulated porosity distribution consistent with terrestrial crater observationsDilatancy more effective in small craters and under low surface gravity
A small number of rare, recurrent genomic copy number variants (CNVs) are known to substantially increase susceptibility to schizophrenia. As a consequence of the low fecundity in people with ...schizophrenia and other neurodevelopmental phenotypes to which these CNVs contribute, CNVs with large effects on risk are likely to be rapidly removed from the population by natural selection. Accordingly, such CNVs must frequently occur as recurrent de novo mutations. In a sample of 662 schizophrenia proband-parent trios, we found that rare de novo CNV mutations were significantly more frequent in cases (5.1% all cases, 5.5% family history negative) compared with 2.2% among 2623 controls, confirming the involvement of de novo CNVs in the pathogenesis of schizophrenia. Eight de novo CNVs occurred at four known schizophrenia loci (3q29, 15q11.2, 15q13.3 and 16p11.2). De novo CNVs of known pathogenic significance in other genomic disorders were also observed, including deletion at the TAR (thrombocytopenia absent radius) region on 1q21.1 and duplication at the WBS (Williams-Beuren syndrome) region at 7q11.23. Multiple de novos spanned genes encoding members of the DLG (discs large) family of membrane-associated guanylate kinases (MAGUKs) that are components of the postsynaptic density (PSD). Two de novos also affected EHMT1, a histone methyl transferase known to directly regulate DLG family members. Using a systems biology approach and merging novel CNV and proteomics data sets, systematic analysis of synaptic protein complexes showed that, compared with control CNVs, case de novos were significantly enriched for the PSD proteome (P=1.72 × 10⁻⁶. This was largely explained by enrichment for members of the N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) (P=4.24 × 10⁻⁶) and neuronal activity-regulated cytoskeleton-associated protein (ARC) (P=3.78 × 10⁻⁸) postsynaptic signalling complexes. In an analysis of 18 492 subjects (7907 cases and 10 585 controls), case CNVs were enriched for members of the NMDAR complex (P=0.0015) but not ARC (P=0.14). Our data indicate that defects in NMDAR postsynaptic signalling and, possibly, ARC complexes, which are known to be important in synaptic plasticity and cognition, play a significant role in the pathogenesis of schizophrenia.
Almost all meteorite impacts occur at oblique incidence angles, but the effect of impact angle on crater size is not well understood, especially for large craters. To improve oblique impact crater ...scaling, we present a suite of simulations of complex crater formation on Earth and the Moon over a range of impact angles, velocities and impactor sizes. We show that crater diameter is larger than predicted by existing scaling relationships for oblique impacts; there is little dependence on obliquity for impacts steeper than 45° from the horizontal. Crater depth, volume and diameter depend on impact angle in different ways—relatively shallower craters are formed by more oblique impacts. Our simulation results have implications for how crater populations are determined from impactor populations and vice‐versa. They suggest that existing approaches to account for impact obliquity may underestimate the number of complex craters larger than a given size by as much as one‐third.
Plain Language Summary
The relationship between impact crater size and impactor properties, such as size and speed, is key to comparing impactor and crater populations on different planets and dating planetary surfaces. Most of our understanding of this relationship, however, comes from numerical simulations of vertical‐incidence impacts, and laboratory impact experiments at relatively low speed, which are comparatively rare in nature. Here we present results of numerical simulations of large crater formation on Earth and the Moon, for a range of oblique impact angles and speeds more typical of planetary scale impacts. We find that while crater size decreases as the impact angle becomes shallower, crater diameter, depth and volume are all affected by impact angle in different ways. Most importantly, we find that crater diameter depends less on impact angle than previously thought, especially for steeply inclined impacts. This implies that typical asteroid impacts on planetary surfaces form larger craters, and large craters are formed more frequently, than is currently assumed.
Key Points
We have simulated the formation of complex impact craters at a range of impact angles and velocities
Complex craters formed at oblique angles are larger than existing scaling laws predict
The overall effect of impact obliquity on crater populations is not as strong as earlier calculations suggested
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