Using a variety of optical satellite scenes, this study quantifies the change in the areal extent of 1773 glaciers across Northern Ellesmere Island between ~1999 and ~2015. Our results show that the ...regional ice coverage decreased by 1705.3 km2 over the ~16-year period, a loss of ~5.9%. Ice shelves had the greatest losses relative to their size, of ~42.4%. Glaciers feeding into ice shelves reduced in area by 4.7%, while tidewater glaciers reduced in area by 3.3%. Marine-terminating glaciers with floating ice tongues reduced in area by 4.9%, and 19 of these 27 ice tongues disintegrated, causing these glaciers to retreat to their grounding lines. Land-terminating glaciers lost 4.9% of their 1999 area, including the complete loss of three small ice caps (<1.5 km2). Our study highlights the high sensitivity of the ice cover of Northern Ellesmere Island to recent climate warming and the continued losses that are likely to occur in the future. In particular, the ice masses most susceptible to further losses are marine-terminating glaciers with floating termini and small land-terminating ice caps at low elevations.
Significant attention has focused on the potential for increased shipping activity driven by recently observed declines in Arctic sea ice cover. In this study, we describe the first coupled spatial ...analysis between shipping activity and sea ice using observations in the Canadian Arctic over the 1990–2015 period. Shipping activity is measured by using known ship locations enhanced with a least cost path algorithm to generate ship tracks and quantified by computing total distance traveled in kilometers. Statistically significant increases in shipping activity are observed in the Hudson Strait (150–500 km traveled yr−1), the Beaufort Sea (40–450 km traveled yr−1), Baffin Bay (50–350 km traveled yr−1), and regions in the southern route of the Northwest Passage (50–250 km traveled yr−1). Increases in shipping activity are significantly correlated with reductions in sea ice concentration (Kendall's tau up to −0.6) in regions of the Beaufort Sea, Western Parry Channel, Western Baffin Bay, and Foxe Basin. Changes in multiyear ice‐dominant regions in the Canadian Arctic were found to be more influential on changes to shipping activity compared to seasonal sea ice regions.
Key Points
First observational coupled spatial analysis of the influence of declining sea ice on increasing ship activity in the Canadian Arctic
Shipping activity increases are significantly correlated to declining sea ice in several regions
The presence of multiyear ice seems to influence shipping activity more than seasonal first‐year ice
A total of eight floating glacier tongues have shrunk in area by >85% from the Yelverton Bay region of Northern Ellesmere Island since 1959, with unusually large losses since 2005. To better ...understand the causes of these losses, this study undertakes the first examination of ice tongue changes in this region, including an assessment of changes in surrounding marine ice (i.e. sea ice, sikussak and mélange), and atmospheric and oceanographic forcings. From 1959 to 2017, the total ice tongue area decreased by 49.07 km2, with the majority of this loss occurring from 2005 to 2009 (34.68 km2). The loss of ice tongues since 2005 occurred when open water replaced multi-year landfast sea ice (MLSI) and first-year sea ice in the regions adjacent to the ice tongues. These changes were accompanied by an increase in mean annual mid-depth (i.e. 100 and 200 m) ocean temperatures from −0.29°C from 1999 to 2005 to 0.67°C from 2006 to 2012. Despite the recent return of ocean temperatures to below pre-2006 levels, atmospheric summer temperatures have continued to rise (+0.15°C decade−1 between 1948 and 2016), with open water continuing to occur. Without the sustained presence of MLSI in this region the ice tongues are unable to stabilize, making it unlikely that they will re-form in the current climate.
Using historical and recent aerial photography and structure from motion (SfM) multiview stereo (MVS) techniques, we reconstruct the 1959 and 2018 ice surface topography and determine the geodetic ...mass balance of Bowman Glacier, a small mountain glacier on northern Ellesmere Island. This is combined with optical satellite imagery to reconstruct the evolution in extent of the glacier over six decades, and ground-penetrating radar measurements of ice thickness to estimate the remaining ice volume. Between 1959 and 2020, Bowman Glacier lost 78% of its extent (reducing from 2.75 to 0.61 km2), while average annual area loss rates have nearly tripled in the past two decades. Over the 1959–2018 period, glacier-wide ice-thickness change averaged −22.7 ± 4.7 m, corresponding to a mean specific annual mass balance of −347.0 ± 71.4 mm w.e. a−1. Projecting rates of area and volume change into the future indicates that the glacier will likely entirely disappear between 2030 and 2060. This study demonstrates the potential of SfM-MVS processing to generate elevation products from 1950/60s historical aerial photographs, and to extend observations of ice elevation and glacier volume change for the Canadian Arctic, prior to the satellite record.
Abstract
Glaciers of Baffin Island and nearby islands of Arctic Canada have experienced rapid mass losses over recent decades. However, projections of loss rates into the 21st century have so far ...been limited by the availability of model calibration and validation data. In this study, we model the surface mass balance of the largest ice cap on Baffin Island, Penny Ice Cap, since 1959, using an enhanced temperature index model calibrated with in situ data from 2006–2014. Subsequently, we project changes to 2099 based on the RCP4.5 climate scenario. Since the mid-1990s, the surface mass balance over Penny Ice Cap has become increasingly negative, particularly after 2005. Using volume–area scaling to account for glacier retreat, peak net mass loss is projected to occur between ~2040 and 2080, and the ice cap is expected to lose 22% (377.4 Gt or 60 m w.e.) of its 2014 ice mass by 2099, contributing 1.0 mm to sea level rise. Our 2015–2099 projections are approximately nine times more sensitive to changes in temperature than precipitation, with an absolute cumulative difference of 566 Gt (90 m w.e.) between +2 and −2°C scenarios, and 63 Gt (10 m w.e.) between +20% and −20% precipitation scenarios.
Abstract Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data suffer from an elevation bias due to signal penetration into the firn and ice surface, rendering the height information unusable for ...elevation and mass-change detection. This study estimates the penetration bias in X-band InSAR data to quantify its impact on elevation and mass-change detection and to demonstrate the applicability of TanDEM-X digital elevation models (DEMs) for cryosphere research. To achieve this, a multiple linear regression model is applied to a time series of four TanDEM-X DEMs acquired between 2010 and 2018 over the Sverdrup Glacier basin (SGB), Devon Ice Cap, Canada. The resulting penetration corrected TanDEM-X DEMs agreed to within ±14 cm of spatially and temporally coincident precise in situ kinematic dGPS data (±10 cm RMSE). Additionally, multi-year estimations of mass change for the SGB derived from differencing TanDEM-X DEMs over multi-year periods between 2010 and 2018, showed good agreement with mean deviation of 338 ± 166 mm w.e. with independent measurements of mass change derived from annual in situ surface mass balance over the same time periods. The results show that the penetration bias can vary significantly, leading to random under- and overestimations in the detection of elevation and mass changes.
In Greenland, 87% of the glacierized area terminates in the ocean, but mass lost at the ice‐ocean interface, or frontal ablation, has not yet been fully quantified. Using measurements and models we ...calculate frontal ablation of Greenland's 213 outlet and 537 peripheral glaciers and find a total frontal ablation of 481.8 ± 24.0 for 2000–2010 and 510.2 ± 18.6 Gt a−1 for 2010–2020. Ice discharge accounted for ∼90% of frontal ablation during both periods, while mass loss due to terminus retreat comprised the remainder. Only 16 glaciers were responsible for the majority (>50%) of frontal ablation from 2010 to 2020. These estimates, along with the climatic‐basal balance, allow for a more complete accounting of Greenland Ice Sheet and peripheral glacier mass balance. In total, Greenland accounted for ∼90% of Northern Hemisphere frontal ablation for 2000–2010 and 2010–2020.
Plain Language Summary
We estimate the mass of ice lost from all Greenland glaciers that entered the ocean during each of the last two decades. This ice loss at the front of these marine‐terminating glaciers is called frontal ablation and is approximately equal to the mass of icebergs entering the ocean. Frontal ablation is important because 87% of glacier area in Greenland ends in the ocean, through 750 outlets, and previous work has only approximated frontal ablation. This study quantifies it for the first time, helping to close the mass budget for the Greenland Ice Sheet and better partition its mass balance into components. We find that Greenland accounts for ∼90% of all Northern Hemisphere frontal ablation and, of that contribution, just 17 glaciers for 2000–2010 and 16 glaciers for 2010–2020 account for more than half of total Greenland frontal ablation.
Key Points
Frontal ablation of the Greenland Ice Sheet averaged 510.2 ± 18.6 Gt a−1 for 2010–2020, ∼90% of which came from ice discharge
The frontal ablation we measured is larger than the total mass loss from the ice sheet, indicating a positive climatic‐basal balance
Only 16 glaciers account for 50% of the total frontal ablation from the Greenland Ice Sheet
Recent surges of Dan Zhur (Donjek) Glacier have formed lakes at the glacier terminus that have drained catastrophically, resulting in hazards to people and infrastructure downstream. Here we use air ...photos and satellite imagery to describe lake formation, and the timing of filling and draining, since the 1930s. Between the 1930s and late 1980s, lakes were typically small (<0.6 km2), took many years to form after a surge event, and drained slowly as they were displaced by the glacier advancing in the next surge. However, since 1993, the lakes have become larger (>1 km2) and drain rapidly through or under the glacier by breaking a terminal ice dam. For the past two surges, since 2001, the lakes formed during or immediately after a surge in an increasingly larger basin between the Neoglacial maximum moraine and an increasingly smaller maximum terminus extent. Most recently, the 2012-2014 surge created a lake that drained in summer 2017, refilled, and drained again in both summer 2018 and summer 2019. The 2019 lake was 2.2 km2, the largest on record, and drained entirely within 2 days. While a lake is unlikely to form again before the next expected surge in the mid-2020s, future surges of Dan Zhur Glacier are still likely to create terminal lakes, necessitating continued monitoring for surge activity and lake formation.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Field observations, aerial photographs and satellite images are used to reconstruct the past surges of Lowell Glacier, Yukon, Canada, since 1948 based on the timing of terminus advances. A total of ...five surges occurred over this time, each with a duration of ~1–2 years. The time between successive surges ranged from 12 to 20 years, and appears to have been shortening over time. The relatively short advance and quiescent phases of Lowell Glacier, together with rapid increases in velocity during surges, suggest that the surging is controlled by a hydrological switch. The 2009–10 surge saw ablation area velocities increase by up to two orders of magnitude from quiescent velocities, and the terminus increase in area by 5.1 km2 and in length by up to 2.85 km. This change in area was the smallest since 1948, and follows the trend of decreasing surge extents over time. This decrease is likely driven by a strongly negative surface mass balance of Lowell Glacier since at least the 1970s, and means that the current town site of Haines Junction is very unlikely to be flooded by damming caused by any future advances of the glacier under the current climate regime.
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