The field of nutritional epidemiology faces challenges posed by measurement error, diet as a complex exposure, and residual confounding. The objective of this perspective article is to highlight how ...developments in big data and machine learning can help address these challenges. New methods of collecting 24-h dietary recalls and recording diet could enable larger samples and more repeated measures to increase statistical power and measurement precision. In addition, use of machine learning to automatically classify pictures of food could become a useful complimentary method to help improve precision and validity of dietary measurements. Diet is complex due to thousands of different foods that are consumed in varying proportions, fluctuating quantities over time, and differing combinations. Current dietary pattern methods may not integrate sufficient dietary variation, and most traditional modeling approaches have limited incorporation of interactions and nonlinearity. Machine learning could help better model diet as a complex exposure with nonadditive and nonlinear associations. Last, novel big data sources could help avoid unmeasured confounding by offering more covariates, including both omics and features derived from unstructured data with machine learning methods. These opportunities notwithstanding, application of big data and machine learning must be approached cautiously to ensure quality of dietary measurements, avoid overfitting, and confirm accurate interpretations. Greater use of machine learning and big data would also require substantial investments in training, collaborations, and computing infrastructure. Overall, we propose that judicious application of big data and machine learning in nutrition science could offer new means of dietary measurement, more tools to model the complexity of diet and its relations with diseases, and additional potential ways of addressing confounding.
Big data and machine learning may enhance use of observational data in nutritional epidemiology by accounting for diet's complexity and offering new means of addressing measurement error.
ObjectivesTo examine the cost-effectiveness of Multi-specialty INterprofessional Team (MINT) Memory Clinic care in comparison to the provision of usual care.DesignUsing a Markov-based state ...transition model, we performed a cost-utility (costs and quality-adjusted life years, QALY) analysis of MINT Memory Clinic care and usual care not involving MINT Memory Clinics.SettingA primary care-based Memory Clinic in Ontario, Canada.ParticipantsThe analysis included data from a sample of 229 patients assessed in the MINT Memory Clinic between January 2019 and January 2021.Primary outcome measuresEffectiveness as measured in QALY, costs (in Canadian dollars) and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio calculated as the incremental cost per QALY gained between MINT Memory Clinics versus usual care.ResultsMINT Memory Clinics were found to be less expensive ($C51 496 (95% Crl $C4806 to $C119 367) while slightly improving quality of life (+0.43 (95 Crl 0.01 to 1.24) QALY) compared with usual care. The probabilistic analysis showed that MINT Memory Clinics were the superior treatment compared with usual care 98% of the time. Variation in age was found to have the greatest impact on cost-effectiveness as patients may benefit from the MINT Memory Clinics more if they receive care beginning at a younger age.ConclusionMultispecialty interprofessional memory clinic care is less costly and more effective compared with usual care and early access to care significantly reduces care costs over time. The results of this economic evaluation can inform decision-making and improvements to health system design, resource allocation and care experience for persons living with dementia. Specifically, widespread scaling of MINT Memory Clinics into existing primary care systems may assist with improving quality and access to memory care services while decreasing the growing economic and social burden of dementia.
To evaluate the association between frailty and post-cardiac arrest survival, functional decline, and cognitive decline, among patients receiving home care.
Frailty was measured using the Clinical ...Frailty Scale (CFS) and a valid frailty index. We used multivariable logistic regression to measure the association between frailty and post-arrest outcomes after adjusting for age, sex, and arrest setting. Functional independence and cognitive performance were measured using the interRAI ADL Long-Form and Cognitive Performance Scale, respectively. We conducted sub-group analytics of in-hospital and out-of-hospital arrests.
Our cohort consisted of 7,901 home care clients; most patients arrested out-of-hospital (55.4%) and were 75 years or older (66.3%). Most were classified as frail (94.2%) with a CFS score of 5 or greater. The 30-day survival rate was higher for in-hospital (26.6%) than out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (5.2%). Most patients who survived to discharge had declines in post-arrest functional independence (65.8%) and cognitive performance (46.5%). A one-point increase in the CFS decreased the odds of 30-day survival by 8% (aOR = 0.92; 95%CI = 0.87–0.97). A 0.1 unit increase in the frailty index reduced the odds of 30-day survival by 9% (aOR = 0.91; 95%CI = 0.86–0.96). The frailty index was associated with declines in functional independence (OR = 1.16; 95%CI = 1.02–1.31) and cognitive performance (OR = 1.24; 95%CI = 1.09–1.42), while the CFS was not.
Frailty is associated with cardiac arrest survival and post-arrest cognitive and functional status in patients receiving home care. Post-cardiac arrest cognitive and functional status are best predicted using more comprehensive frailty indices.
Geriatric patients represent a large and complex subgroup seen in emergency departments (EDs). Competencies in geriatric emergency medicine (EM) training have been established. Our objectives were to ...examine Canadian postgraduate year (PGY)-5 EM residents' comfort with the geriatric EM competency domains, assess whether Canadian EM residents become more comfortable through residency, and determine whether geriatric educational exposures are correlated with resident comfort with geriatric EM.
A national, cross-sectional study of PGY-1 and PGY-5 Royal College EM residents was conducted to determine their comfort in geriatric EM clinical competency domains. Residents reported their level of comfort in satisfying each competency domain using a seven-point Likert scale. Residents were also asked about the location of their medical education as well as the type and number of different geriatric exposures that they had received to date.
Of the 141 eligible residents from across Canada, 77% (109) consented to participate. None of the PGY-1 EM residents and 34% (14) of PGY-5 EM residents reported that they were comfortable with all eight geriatric EM competency domains. PGY-5 EM residents were significantly more comfortable than PGY-1 EM residents. Residents reported a highly variable range of geriatric educational exposures obtained during training. No relationship was found between resident-reported comfort and the nature or number of geriatric exposures that they had received.
Current Royal College EM residency training in Canada may not be adequately preparing graduates to be comfortable with defined competencies for the care of older ED patients.
Population-based chronic disease surveillance systems were likely disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The objective of this study was to examine the immediate and ongoing impact of the COVID-19 ...pandemic on the claims-based incidence of dementia.
We conducted a population-based time series analysis from January 2015 to December 2021 in Ontario, Canada. We calculated the monthly claims-based incidence of dementia using a validated case ascertainment algorithm drawing from routinely collected health administrative data. We used autoregressive linear models to compare the claims-based incidence of dementia during the COVID-19 period (2020-2021) to the expected incidence had the pandemic not occurred, controlling for seasonality and secular trends. We examined incidence by source of ascertainment and across strata of sex, age, community size and number of health conditions.
The monthly claims-based incidence of dementia dropped from a 2019 average of 11.9 per 10 000 to 8.5 per 10 000 in April 2020 (32.6% lower than expected). The incidence returned to expected levels by late 2020. Across the COVID-19 period there were a cumulative 2990 (95% CI 2109 to 3704) fewer cases of dementia observed than expected, equivalent to 1.05 months of new cases. Despite the overall recovery, ascertainment rates continued to be lower than expected among individuals aged 65-74 years and in large urban areas. Ascertainment rates were higher than expected in hospital and among individuals with 11 or more health conditions.
The claims-based incidence of dementia recovered to expected levels by late 2020, suggesting minimal long-term changes to population-based dementia surveillance. Continued monitoring of claims-based incidence is necessary to determine whether the lower than expected incidence among individuals aged 65-74 and in large urban areas, and higher than expected incidence among individuals with 11 or more health conditions, is transitory.
Increasing hospitalization rates present unique challenges to manage limited inpatient bed capacity and services. Transport by paramedics to the emergency department (ED) may influence hospital ...admission decisions independent of patient need/acuity, though this relationship has not been established. We examined whether mode of transportation to the ED was independently associated with hospital admission.
We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System (NACRS) from April 1, 2015 to March 31, 2020 in Ontario, Canada. We included all adult patients (≥18 years) who received a triage score in the ED and presented via paramedic transport or self-referral (walk-in). Multivariable binary logistic regression was used to determine the association of mode of transportation between hospital admission, after adjusting for important patient and visit characteristics.
During the study period, 21,764,640 ED visits were eligible for study inclusion. Approximately one-fifth (18.5%) of all ED visits were transported by paramedics. All-cause hospital admission incidence was greater when transported by paramedics (35.0% vs. 7.5%) and with each decreasing Canadian Triage and Acuity Scale level. Paramedic transport was independently associated with hospital admission (OR = 3.76; 95%CI = 3.74-3.77), in addition to higher medical acuity, older age, male sex, greater than two comorbidities, treatment in an urban setting and discharge diagnoses specific to the circulatory or digestive systems.
Transport by paramedics to an ED was independently associated with hospital admission as the disposition outcome, when compared against self-referred visits. Our findings highlight patient and visit characteristics associated with hospital admission, and can be used to inform proactive healthcare strategizing for in-patient bed management.
ObjectiveParamedic redirection from emergency department (ED) to subacute centres may be more beneficial for some patients, though little is known about which patients are potentially appropriate. We ...examined whether patient characteristics were associated with ED visits when the main intervention was suitable to be performed in a subacute centre.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective observational study using the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System from 2014 to 2018 in Ontario, Canada. We included all adult patients transported by paramedics and had a main physician intervention recorded. We used results of a RAND/UCLA modified Delphi study to categorise patients into either ED or a subacute care (urgent care and/or general practice centre) based on their main intervention. An independent logistic regression model was analysed for each subacute centre.ResultsA total of 2 394 072 ED visits were included; 59% of ED interventions were categorised as ‘urgent care’, 27% ‘ED only’, 9% either ‘urgent care’ or ‘general practice’ and 5% had an intervention not previously classified. ED visits suitable for ‘general practice’ had the highest percentage of patients discharged, while ‘ED only’ had the lowest. Lower medical acuity, younger age, time of triage in evening and overnight, and discharged from ED were independently associated with both subacute centres. ‘Urgent care’ visits/interventions were associated with an ED main diagnosis of the respiratory system (OR 3.49), while ‘general practice’ visits were associated with mental health disorders (OR 9.85) and injury/poison/consequences of external causes (OR 3.38).ConclusionsThe majority of ED visits had a main intervention that could have potentially been conducted in a subacute centre. We identified characteristics and diagnostic patterns associated with ED visits when the main intervention was categorised as a subacute centre intervention. This study contributes knowledge to inform which patients are potentially appropriate for paramedic redirection.
The relative contributions of long-term care (LTC) resident frailty and home-level characteristics on COVID-19 mortality has not been well studied. We examined the association between resident ...frailty and home-level characteristics with 30-day COVID-19 mortality before and after the availability of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in LTC.
We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study of LTC residents with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in Ontario, Canada. We used multi-level multivariable logistic regression to examine associations between 30-day COVID-19 mortality, the Hubbard Frailty Index (FI), and resident and home-level characteristics. We compared explanatory models before and after vaccine availability.
There were 11,179 and 3,655 COVID-19 cases in the pre- and post-vaccine period, respectively. The 30-day COVID-19 mortality was 25.9 and 20.0% during the same periods. The median odds ratios for 30-day COVID-19 mortality between LTC homes were 1.50 (95% credible interval CrI: 1.41-1.65) and 1.62 (95% CrI: 1.46-1.96), respectively. In the pre-vaccine period, 30-day COVID-19 mortality was higher for males and those of greater age. For every 0.1 increase in the Hubbard FI, the odds of death were 1.49 (95% CI: 1.42-1.56) times higher. The association between frailty and mortality remained consistent in the post-vaccine period, but sex and age were partly attenuated. Despite the substantial home-level variation, no home-level characteristic examined was significantly associated with 30-day COVID-19 mortality during either period.
Frailty is consistently associated with COVID-19 mortality before and after the availability of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. Home-level characteristics previously attributed to COVID-19 outcomes do not explain significant home-to-home variation in COVID-19 mortality.
INTERPRETATION : Le statut << a but lucratif >> est associe a l'ampleur d'une eclosion de COVID-19 et au nombre de deces de residents dans un foyer de SLD, mais pas au risque d'eclosion. Deux ...principaux facteurs expliquent les differences entre les foyers a but lucratif et non lucratif, soit l'application des anciennes normes d'amenagement et l'appartenance a une chaTne de proprietes. Ceux-ci devraient etre au creur des futures mesures et politiques de lutte contre les infections.
To determine if nursing home (NH) resident characteristics associated with potentially preventable emergency department transfers (PPEDs) are similarly associated with non-potentially preventable ...emergency department transfers (non-PPEDs).
We conducted a population-level retrospective cohort study using linked administrative data reported using the Resident Assessment Instrument-Minimum Data Set Version 2.0 and the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System for emergency department transfers.
We assessed all NH residents transferred to the emergency department within 92 days after admission. The cohort included 56,433 NH resident admissions assessment of which 3498 NH residents experienced PPEDs, and 9331 residents experienced non-PPEDs.
We assessed Ontario NH residents admission assessments collected between January 1, 2017, and December 31, 2018. We used cumulative incidence functions and Cox regression to compare resident characteristics between residents experiencing PPEDs and non-PPEDs. PPEDs were defined based on the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision.
Approximately 23% of residents experienced an emergency department transfer within 92 days of NH admission. The cumulative incidence of PPEDs was 6.3% and non-PPEDs was 16.8%. After adjusting for clinically relevant features, 14 of 18 resident admission characteristics were associated with both types of transfers. Resident admission characteristics associated with a greater risk of PPEDs solely were pneumonia hazard ratio (HR) 1.48; CI 1.25-1.70 and oxygen therapy (HR 1.88; CI 1.69-2.10). Resident admission characteristics associated with a greater risk of non-PPEDs solely are experiencing a change in mood (HR 1.09; CI 1.01-1.18) and delirium (HR 1.08; CI 1.04-1.13).
PPEDs were associated with a similar cluster of NH resident characteristics as those transferred for non-ambulatory reasons, suggesting that the clinical distinction between PPEDs vs non-PPEDs within the NH might be unclear. These findings highlight that the PPED indicator could be revised to improve specificity.
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