Groningen is the largest onshore gas field under production in Europe. The pressure depletion of the gas field started in 1963. In 1991, the first induced micro-earthquakes have been located at ...reservoir level with increasing rates in the following decades. Most of these events are of magnitude less than 2.0 and cannot be felt. However, maximum observed magnitudes continuously increased over the years until the largest, significant event with
M
L
=
3.6
was recorded in 2014, which finally led to the decision to reduce the production. This causal sequence displays the crucial role of understanding and modeling the relation between production and induced seismicity for economic planing and hazard assessment. Here we test whether the induced seismicity related to gas exploration can be modeled by the statistical response of fault networks with rate-and-state-dependent frictional behavior. We use the long and complete local seismic catalog and additionally detailed information on production-induced changes at the reservoir level to test different seismicity models. Both the changes of the fluid pressure and of the reservoir compaction are tested as input to approximate the Coulomb stress changes. We find that the rate-and-state model with a constant tectonic background seismicity rate can reproduce the observed long delay of the seismicity onset. In contrast, so-called Coulomb failure models with instantaneous earthquake nucleation need to assume that all faults are initially far from a critical state of stress to explain the delay. Our rate-and-state model based on the fluid pore pressure fits the spatiotemporal pattern of the seismicity best, where the fit further improves by taking the fault density and orientation into account. Despite its simplicity with only three free parameters, the rate-and-state model can reproduce the main statistical features of the observed activity.
Due to the deep socioeconomic implications, induced seismicity is a timely and increasingly relevant topic of interest for the general public. Cases of induced seismicity have a global distribution ...and involve a large number of industrial operations, with many documented cases from as far back to the beginning of the twentieth century. However, the sparse and fragmented documentation available makes it difficult to have a clear picture on our understanding of the physical phenomenon and consequently in our ability to mitigate the risk associated with induced seismicity. This review presents a unified and concise summary of the still open questions related to monitoring, discrimination, and management of induced seismicity in the European context and, when possible, provides potential answers. We further discuss selected critical European cases of induced seismicity, which led to the suspension or reduction of the related industrial activities.
Key Points
We provide a unified and concise summary about the still open questions on monitoring, discrimination, and management of induced seismicity
We review critical cases of induced seismicity in Europe which led to the suspension of the related industrial activities
This study outlines the scientific and societal challenges posed by the induced seismicity in a European perspective
Hydrofracturing is a routine industrial technique whose safety depends on fractures remaining confined within the target rock volume. Both observations and theoretical models show that, if the fluid ...volume is larger than a critical value, pockets of fluid can propagate large distances in the Earth's crust in a self‐sustained, uncontrolled manner. Existing models for such critical volumes are unsatisfactory; most are two‐dimensional and depend on poorly constrained parameters (typically the fracture length). Here we derive both analytically and numerically in three‐dimensional scale‐independent critical volumes as a function of only rock and fluid properties. We apply our model to gas, water, and magma injections in laboratory, industrial, and natural settings, showing that our critical volumes are consistent with observations and can be used as conservative estimates. We discuss competing mechanisms promoting fracture arrest, whose quantitative study could help to assess more comprehensively the safety of hydrofracturing operations.
Plain Language Summary
Fractures in rocks can act as channels for fluids. Fracking, or hydrofracturing, involves injection of fluids at high pressure in order to grow fractures within the rock and increase its permeability. Fluid volumes need to be kept below a threshold value: If the fluid volume is larger, then the stresses at the tips of the fluid pocket will be large enough for the fluids to force their way around by fracturing the rock ahead of them. Previous theoretical models for the critical volumes are unsatisfactory as they are two‐dimensional and based on poorly constrained parameters. We derive and test a new three‐dimensional equation that uses only rock and fluid parameters. We find that typical volumes injected in hydrofracturing operations are over the limit we define. We argue they are still mostly safe as additional processes often hinder fracture growth. Further work is needed to comprehensively quantify mechanisms that hinder hydrofracture arrest.
Key Points
We define critical volumes for fractures under the influence of a stress gradients that cause self‐sustaining propagation
We define such critical volumes analytically such that they are independent of scale. These are verified numerically
The equation predicts the correct scale in natural and analog examples but for hydro‐fracturing its too low
Ground subsidence caused by natural or anthropogenic processes affects major urban areas worldwide. Sinkhole formation and infrastructure fractures have intensified in the federal capital of Maceió ...(Alagoas, Brazil) since early 2018, forcing authorities to relocate affected residents and place buildings under demolition. In this study, we present a 16-year history (2004-2020) of surface displacement, which shows precursory deformations in 2004-2005, reaching a maximum cumulative subsidence of approximately 200 cm near the Mundaú Lagoon coast in November 2020. By integrating the displacement observations with numerical source modelling, we suggest that extensive subsidence can be primarily associated with the removal of localized, deep-seated material at the location and depth where salt is mined. We discuss the accelerating subsidence rates, influence of severe precipitation events on the aforementioned geological instability, and related hazards. This study suggests that feedback destabilization mechanisms may arise in evaporite systems due to anthropogenic activities, fostering enhanced and complex superficial ground deformation.
On 1 April 2014, Northern Chile was struck by a magnitude 8.1 earthquake following a protracted series of foreshocks. The Integrated Plate Boundary Observatory Chile monitored the entire sequence of ...events, providing unprecedented resolution of the build-up to the main event and its rupture evolution. Here we show that the Iquique earthquake broke a central fraction of the so-called northern Chile seismic gap, the last major segment of the South American plate boundary that had not ruptured in the past century. Since July 2013 three seismic clusters, each lasting a few weeks, hit this part of the plate boundary with earthquakes of increasing peak magnitudes. Starting with the second cluster, geodetic observations show surface displacements that can be associated with slip on the plate interface. These seismic clusters and their slip transients occupied a part of the plate interface that was transitional between a fully locked and a creeping portion. Leading up to this earthquake, the b value of the foreshocks gradually decreased during the years before the earthquake, reversing its trend a few days before the Iquique earthquake. The mainshock finally nucleated at the northern end of the foreshock area, which skirted a locked patch, and ruptured mainly downdip towards higher locking. Peak slip was attained immediately downdip of the foreshock region and at the margin of the locked patch. We conclude that gradual weakening of the central part of the seismic gap accentuated by the foreshock activity in a zone of intermediate seismic coupling was instrumental in causing final failure, distinguishing the Iquique earthquake from most great earthquakes. Finally, only one-third of the gap was broken and the remaining locked segments now pose a significant, increased seismic hazard with the potential to host an earthquake with a magnitude of >8.5.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Flank instability and sector collapses, which pose major threats, are common on volcanic islands. On 22 Dec 2018, a sector collapse event occurred at Anak Krakatau volcano in the Sunda Strait, ...triggering a deadly tsunami. Here we use multiparametric ground-based and space-borne data to show that prior to its collapse, the volcano exhibited an elevated state of activity, including precursory thermal anomalies, an increase in the island's surface area, and a gradual seaward motion of its southwestern flank on a dipping décollement. Two minutes after a small earthquake, seismic signals characterize the collapse of the volcano's flank at 13:55 UTC. This sector collapse decapitated the cone-shaped edifice and triggered a tsunami that caused 430 fatalities. We discuss the nature of the precursor processes underpinning the collapse that culminated in a complex hazard cascade with important implications for the early detection of potential flank instability at other volcanoes.
Automated location of seismic events is a very important task in microseismic monitoring operations as well for local and regional seismic monitoring. Since microseismic records are generally ...characterized by low signal-to-noise ratio, automated location methods are requested to be noise robust and sufficiently accurate. Most of the standard automated location routines are based on the automated picking, identification and association of the first arrivals of P and S waves and on the minimization of the residuals between theoretical and observed arrival times of the considered seismic phases. Although current methods can accurately pick P onsets, the automatic picking of the S onset is still problematic, especially when the P coda overlaps the S wave onset. In this paper, we propose a picking free earthquake location method based on the use of the short-term-average/long-term-average (STA/LTA) traces at different stations as observed data. For the P phases, we use the STA/LTA traces of the vertical energy function, whereas for the S phases, we use the STA/LTA traces of a second characteristic function, which is obtained using the principal component analysis technique. In order to locate the seismic event, we scan the space of possible hypocentral locations and origin times, and stack the STA/LTA traces along the theoretical arrival time surface for both P and S phases. Iterating this procedure on a 3-D grid, we retrieve a multidimensional matrix whose absolute maximum corresponds to the spatial coordinates of the seismic event. A pilot application was performed in the Campania-Lucania region (southern Italy) using a seismic network (Irpinia Seismic Network) with an aperture of about 150 km. We located 196 crustal earthquakes (depth < 20 km) with magnitude range 1.1 < M
L < 2.7. A subset of these locations were compared with accurate manual locations refined by using a double-difference technique. Our results indicate a good agreement with manual locations. Moreover, our method is noise robust and performs better than classical location methods based on the automatic picking of the P and S waves first arrivals.
A spatially localized seismic sequence originated few tens of kilometres offshore the Mediterranean coast of Spain, close to the Ebro river delta, starting on 2013 September 5, and lasting at least ...until 2013 October. The sequence culminated in a maximal moment magnitude M
w 4.3 earthquake, on 2013 October 1. The most relevant seismogenic feature in the area is the Fosa de Amposta fault system, which includes different strands mapped at different distances to the coast, with a general NE–SW orientation, roughly parallel to the coastline. However, no significant known historical seismicity has involved this fault system in the past. The epicentral region is also located near the offshore platform of the Castor project, where gas is conducted through a pipeline from mainland and where it was recently injected in a depleted oil reservoir, at about 2 km depth. We analyse the temporal evolution of the seismic sequence and use full waveform techniques to derive absolute and relative locations, estimate depths and focal mechanisms for the largest events in the sequence (with magnitude mbLg larger than 3), and compare them to a previous event (2012 April 8, mbLg 3.3) taking place in the same region prior to the gas injection. Moment tensor inversion results show that the overall seismicity in this sequence is characterized by oblique mechanisms with a normal fault component, with a 30° low-dip angle plane oriented NNE–SSW and a subvertical plane oriented NW–SE. The combined analysis of hypocentral location and focal mechanisms could indicate that the seismic sequence corresponds to rupture processes along shallow low-dip surfaces, which could have been triggered by the gas injection in the reservoir, and excludes the activation of the Amposta fault, as its known orientation is inconsistent with focal mechanism results. An alternative scenario includes the iterated triggering of a system of steep faults oriented NW–SE, which were identified by prior marine seismics investigations.
The 2021 volcanic eruption at La Palma, Canary Islands, was the island's most voluminous historical eruption. Little is known about this volcano's feeding system. During the eruption, seismicity was ...distributed in two clusters at ~10-14 km and ~33-39 km depth, separated by an aseismic zone. This gap coincides with the location of weak seismic swarms in 2017-2021 and where petrological data have implied pre-eruptive magma storage. Here we use seismological methods to understand the seismic response to magma transfer, with 8,488 hypocentral relocations resolving small-scale seismogenic structures, and 156 moment tensors identifying stress heterogeneities and principal axes flips. Results suggest a long-lasting preparatory stage with the progressive destabilisation of an intermediate, mushy reservoir, and a co-eruptive stage with seismicity controlled by the drainage and interplay of two localised reservoirs. Our study provides new insights into the plumbing system that will improve the monitoring of future eruptions in the island.
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